Impact of HOF Players by Position on Winning Championships

[gobesmug]

Was doing some research for curiosity on what positions have the greatest impact on winning, and decided to look at the HOF list by position and see which position had the highest percentage on winning superbowls.

I'll list it by highest to lowest. I was surprised by some of the positional impacts.

(1) Punter. 100%. Ray Guy is the only punter in the HOF and he won multiple superbowls.

(2) QB. 76%. In addition, when a HOF QB wins a superbowl, 68% of the time it's multiple superbowls.

(3) DB. 67%. It was too difficult to separate CB from Safety as some HOF CBs player S in their later years and won a superbowl like Charles Woodson. Interesting that the secondary has a greater impact on winning after the QB.

(4a) DT. 60%. Interesting to note that only 1 HOF DT won more than 1 superbowl, making the chances of winning multiple superbowls with a HOF DT at 22%. Second lowest percentage. Most positions are close to 50% at winning multiple superbowls.

(4b) RB. 60%. Jerome Bettis is the most recent HOF RB to win a superbowl back in 2006. The 2 most likely next inductees are AP and Frank Gore, neither one has won a superbowl. Clearly the impact of a HOF RB has changed with the game.

(6) OLB 59%. Former Patriots great Andre Tippet is sadly part of the HOF group of OLBs without a superbowl.

(7) ILB 57%.

(8) WR 55%. With a HOF WR, if a superbowl was won, the odds of winning multiple superbowls was 56%.

(9) OT 53%. Multiple winning percentage is 40%.

(10a) K 50%. No kicker in the HOF, all 2, has won multiple superbowls, making the percentage of winning multiple superbowls if a superbowl was won at 0%. If the HOF rightly adds Adam V it goes up to %50 leaving DTs at having the smallest chance of winning multiple superbowls.

(10b) DE 50%

(10c) OG 50%

(13) TE 44%. Was surprised to see TE this low, but when a TE does win a superbowl, 75% won multiple superbowls. Those numbers will only go up when Gronk and Kelce are inducted.

(14) C 28%. Getting a HOF C is not the recipe for winning. In general the oline had a smaller impact on winning than defense and the skill position of RB and WR.


Pro Football QB Hall of Fame Monitor | Pro-Football-Reference.com is the resource I used.

Now obviously statics don't tell the whole story, but I found it interesting when heading into the draft with a potential top 3 pick as to what position would be the best to target based on talent.

These numbers were interesting because they ultimately showed that winning doesn't start in the trenches, but starts with the QB and secondary, followed by the LBs and skill guys on offense.

 

[signbabybrady]

So our pick should be Hunter or a DT.

 

[farn]

When a roster is as poor as NE’s, you need help everywhere. I’d love to see them draft the best players at low impact positions. If they come out of this draft with, for instance, the best C, K, P, and safety, I’d be plenty pleased. We need this team to fill as many positions with very good to excellent players regardless of where they play.

 

[gobesmug]

So our pick should be Hunter or a DT.

Graham or Hunter all the way

 

[Stu Pidassle]

Cool analysis, that is an interesting way of looking at the impact by position. I am not sure that the conclusions can be counted on because I feel that there is a bit of a chicken and egg factor in the sense that going to multiple super bowls is a big factor for many players getting into the HOF. Do HOF players win super bowls or do super bowl winners get into the HOF?

 

[signbabybrady]

Cool analysis, that is an interesting way of looking at the impact by position. I am not sure that the conclusions can be counted on because I feel that there is a bit of a chicken and egg factor in the sense that going to multiple super bowls is a big factor for many players getting into the HOF. Do HOF players win super bowls or do super bowl winners get into the HOF?

Point of contention for some reason the HOF doesn't really like our multiple Superbowl winners.

 

[lancerman]

Point of contention for some reason the HOF doesn't really like our multiple Superbowl winners.

Yup. Frankly the Pats dynasty is in a weird spot where outside of Brady/Gronk/Vinatieri a lot of our HOF caliber players are more likely to get in BECAUSE they were here and won Super Bowls than that they were independently highlight reel stars.

Example: Ty Law has two All Pros. That would really him a very borderline guy likely to not get in if he didn't have the rings. Revis won a ring with us, but he 100% would have been a HOF'er had we not won that one SB that he got a ring for.

 

[n1997y]

…
Pro Football QB Hall of Fame Monitor | Pro-Football-Reference.com is the resource I used.

Now obviously statics don't tell the whole story, but I found it interesting when heading into the draft with a potential top 3 pick as to what position would be the best to target based on talent.

These numbers were interesting because they ultimately showed that winning doesn't start in the trenches, but starts with the QB and secondary, followed by the LBs and skill guys on offense.

Not sure that statement is supported by your analysis. I’d like to know what percentage of linemen made the HoF, compared to the percentage of WRs and QBs, for one thing. There are five OL players and one QB, but I’d bet there aren’t five times as many OL in the HoF. So it is likely HoF membership reflects a selection bias.

 

[Nikolai]

I really like where you're going with this, but there's likely a lot more analysis to be done to draw truly meaningful and convincing conclusions.

What might be more interesting to dig into (and a lot more work) are cases where you combine positions to get a better idea. Most SB winners have multiple HOFers, so which combination is the most likely to either stem from SB wins or cause them. And to really hammer the points home, you would probably have to dig into either stats (more complicated and perhaps more accurate) or All-Pro selections (easier, though less quantifiable/reliable) to get to the bottom of the chicken/egg conundrum highlighted above.

 

[gobesmug]

Not sure that statement is supported by your analysis. I’d like to know what percentage of linemen made the HoF, compared to the percentage of WRs and QBs, for one thing. There are five OL players and one QB, but I’d bet there aren’t five times as many OL in the HoF. So it is likely HoF membership reflects a selection bias.

My statement was tongue in cheek as a jest to the old adage that championships are won in the trenches. I honestly expected the Oline chosen to be more based upon championships.

To answer your question about the quantity as that is certainly important, which is why I pointed out 1 Punter and 2 Kickers.

The stats from the list I provided are 7 HOF C, 16 HOF OG and 19 HOF OT.

Interesting that with such few Centers that the ones they choose won very few superbowls.

There have been 29 Wr I'm HOF.

Based on the list that I used, which made the research easier, I only saw 21 QBs. I know the number is closer to 30.

25 RB, 17 OLB, 14 ILB. 20 DE, 9 TE, and 36 DB. RB is mixed with old FBs and DB is a mix of safety and CB.

WR seems to be disproportionately heavy. Or maybe it means that finding a HOF WR is the easiest position to get.

OG and OT are comparable to the amount of each defense position.

Obviously these are just stats and they don't tell the entire story. It was just something I found interesting and thought I would share. Was also curious to see what other people would think about it

 

[gobesmug]

I really like where you're going with this, but there's likely a lot more analysis to be done to draw truly meaningful and convincing conclusions.

What might be more interesting to dig into (and a lot more work) are cases where you combine positions to get a better idea. Most SB winners have multiple HOFers, so which combination is the most likely to either stem from SB wins or cause them. And to really hammer the points home, you would probably have to dig into either stats (more complicated and perhaps more accurate) or All-Pro selections (easier, though less quantifiable/reliable) to get to the bottom of the chicken/egg conundrum highlighted above.

I agree, knowing how many HOF were on the same team that won would definitely flush out the statistics more.

I would also be interested to know which HOF players won with their initial team vs joining a stacked team in order to win, like Revis did.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Was doing some research for curiosity on what positions have the greatest impact on winning, and decided to look at the HOF list by position and see which position had the highest percentage on winning superbowls.

I'll list it by highest to lowest. I was surprised by some of the positional impacts.

(1) Punter. 100%. Ray Guy is the only punter in the HOF and he won multiple superbowls.

(2) QB. 76%. In addition, when a HOF QB wins a superbowl, 68% of the time it's multiple superbowls.

(3) DB. 67%. It was too difficult to separate CB from Safety as some HOF CBs player S in their later years and won a superbowl like Charles Woodson. Interesting that the secondary has a greater impact on winning after the QB.

(4a) DT. 60%. Interesting to note that only 1 HOF DT won more than 1 superbowl, making the chances of winning multiple superbowls with a HOF DT at 22%. Second lowest percentage. Most positions are close to 50% at winning multiple superbowls.

(4b) RB. 60%. Jerome Bettis is the most recent HOF RB to win a superbowl back in 2006. The 2 most likely next inductees are AP and Frank Gore, neither one has won a superbowl. Clearly the impact of a HOF RB has changed with the game.

(6) OLB 59%. Former Patriots great Andre Tippet is sadly part of the HOF group of OLBs without a superbowl.

(7) ILB 57%.

(8) WR 55%. With a HOF WR, if a superbowl was won, the odds of winning multiple superbowls was 56%.

(9) OT 53%. Multiple winning percentage is 40%.

(10a) K 50%. No kicker in the HOF, all 2, has won multiple superbowls, making the percentage of winning multiple superbowls if a superbowl was won at 0%. If the HOF rightly adds Adam V it goes up to %50 leaving DTs at having the smallest chance of winning multiple superbowls.

(10b) DE 50%

(10c) OG 50%

(13) TE 44%. Was surprised to see TE this low, but when a TE does win a superbowl, 75% won multiple superbowls. Those numbers will only go up when Gronk and Kelce are inducted.

(14) C 28%. Getting a HOF C is not the recipe for winning. In general the oline had a smaller impact on winning than defense and the skill position of RB and WR.


Pro Football QB Hall of Fame Monitor | Pro-Football-Reference.com is the resource I used.

Now obviously statics don't tell the whole story, but I found it interesting when heading into the draft with a potential top 3 pick as to what position would be the best to target based on talent.

These numbers were interesting because they ultimately showed that winning doesn't start in the trenches, but starts with the QB and secondary, followed by the LBs and skill guys on offense.

Interesting post, thanks for the effort.

 

[signbabybrady]

I agree, knowing how many HOF were on the same team that won would definitely flush out the statistics more.

I would also be interested to know which HOF players won with their initial team vs joining a stacked team in order to win, like Revis did.

Well currently one of the teams with the most SBs only has 3 players in the Hall of fame from those 6 teams.

 

[Tunescribe]

So our pick should be Hunter or a DT.

According to the OP's research it should be a punter.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

Well currently one of the teams with the most SBs only has 3 players in the Hall of fame from those 6 teams.

It is safe to assume that Brady and Gronk will be added once they hit their 5 year window so hopefully things will change a bit. As of now 3* players in the HOF. The * is Rodney being excluded for his playing style and not his resume on the field. The challenge for the players, especially those from the first part of the dynasty is that those teams were constructed as a sum of their parts, not a collection of talent. The number of HOF members parallels the number of players who were first team All Pro during those years. Troy Brown is a good example. Even when he caught 100 passes in a season, he was not considered a top 10 receiver in the NFL. While we may feel differently based on all of the memorable moments, he is not a Hall of Fame player. Same with Matt Light, where Orlando Pace, Willie Roaf, Johnathan Ogden, etc. were better players at that time. We know that he was great because his reliability and leadership were keys to helping launch Brady into the best QB. Based on this perspective, my answer to the question posed by the OP is that focusing on finding HOF players is not important for building a championship team.

 

[n1997y]

It is safe to assume that Brady and Gronk will be added once they hit their 5 year window so hopefully things will change a bit. As of now 3* players in the HOF. The * is Rodney being excluded for his playing style and not his resume on the field. The challenge for the players, especially those from the first part of the dynasty is that those teams were constructed as a sum of their parts, not a collection of talent. The number of HOF members parallels the number of players who were first team All Pro during those years. Troy Brown is a good example. Even when he caught 100 passes in a season, he was not considered a top 10 receiver in the NFL. While we may feel differently based on all of the memorable moments, he is not a Hall of Fame player. Same with Matt Light, where Orlando Pace, Willie Roaf, Johnathan Ogden, etc. were better players at that time. We know that he was great because his reliability and leadership were keys to helping launch Brady into the best QB. Based on this perspective, my answer to the question posed by the OP is that focusing on finding HOF players is not important for building a championship team.

Very good points. When I posted my response earlier asking about the relative HoF representation of players in the trenches vs skill positions I was thinking that OL might be a good example of just that point about sum of the parts not individual talent. An OL with one HoF player and multiple weak spots won’t be as good as an OL with strong players at every position but no exceptional HoF talent at any of them. IIRC it’s been said “we’re building a team, not just collecting talent.” Your last point is saying the same thing, and I think history has showed it works.

Another interesting analysis might be looking at the number of HoF players per SB winning and losing teams…

Lots of interesting aspects to dig into.

 

[signbabybrady]

It is safe to assume that Brady and Gronk will be added once they hit their 5 year window so hopefully things will change a bit. As of now 3* players in the HOF. The * is Rodney being excluded for his playing style and not his resume on the field. The challenge for the players, especially those from the first part of the dynasty is that those teams were constructed as a sum of their parts, not a collection of talent. The number of HOF members parallels the number of players who were first team All Pro during those years. Troy Brown is a good example. Even when he caught 100 passes in a season, he was not considered a top 10 receiver in the NFL. While we may feel differently based on all of the memorable moments, he is not a Hall of Fame player. Same with Matt Light, where Orlando Pace, Willie Roaf, Johnathan Ogden, etc. were better players at that time. We know that he was great because his reliability and leadership were keys to helping launch Brady into the best QB. Based on this perspective, my answer to the question posed by the OP is that focusing on finding HOF players is not important for building a championship team.

Give me Brady, BB, Rodney, Gronk, and Vinatieri and we'll be a little closer to a reasonable number. Then I think maybe they should consider give us 2-3 guys who maybe don't have the regular season stats but have the playoff moments/stats like Willie or Jules. Willie is still the career playoff sacks leader and Obviously Jules has moments like the catch and double pass and a SB MVP to go with it.