We are a day away from the 2013 NFL draft, and as we get excited about the prospects of who might end up where, it's as good a time as any to ask whether the Patriots under Bill Belichick have been good at this drafting business. Well, I'll give you the conclusion at the outset: Yes, they are. Very good, in fact.
Using pro-football-reference.com's expansive database, I've taken time the past few months to put every draft pick from 2000-2012 into a spread sheet, along with numerous categories to analyze. The Patriots haven't been the best in every possible way, but they are an elite NFL team when it comes to drafting, when the entire package is analyzed.
Let's start with the basic truth that must be understood. The Patriots are a very good team and, by and large, draft late in each round. Of course, trades impact their draft position, but on average, the Patriots have had the third-worst draft position in the NFL. Here's every team's average draft pick #.
Rank - Team - Avg. Pick #
- Ari - 114.274
- Det - 117.928
- NYJ - 118.464
- Den - 118.619
- Cle - 119.140
- Cin - 121.109
- Min - 122.570
- SD - 123.408
- Hou - 123.615
- NO - 124.299
- KC - 125.471
- Oak - 126.020
- Car - 126.200
- StL - 126.739
- Chi - 127.165
- Buf - 127.703
- NYG - 129.309
- Bal - 129.990
- Phi - 130.157
- Dal - 130.693
- SF - 131.053
- Sea - 131.420
- Jax - 131.695
- Mia - 131.753
- Ten - 131.810
- Atl - 132.110
- Pit - 132.740
- Ind - 133.638
- GB - 134.026
- NE - 134.111
- Was - 139.589
- TB - 142.238
The Patriots, therefore start off every draft at a disadvantage compared to most other teams in the league. This is no small matter, as over a 13-year period one would expect teams with such a draft disadvantage to perform significantly worse both in terms of the draft itself, and on the field as well.
Next, let's look at the number of picks each team has actually taken since 2000. Again, keep in mind that teams trade picks (like the Pats' dealing a 4th rounder for Randy Moss). I am only talking about actual draft picks, not players acquired in trades involving draft picks.
Rank - Team - # of picks from 2000-2012
- Ten - 121
- NE - 117
- StL - 115
- Phi - 115
- GB - 115
- SF - 113
- Sea - 112
- Buf - 111
- Cin - 110
- Cle - 107
- Den - 105
- Car - 105
- Jax - 105
- Ind - 105
- TB - 105
- KC - 104
- Bal - 104
- Pit - 104
- Chi - 103
- Dal - 101
- Min - 100
- Oak - 100
- Atl - 100
- SD - 98
- Det - 97
- NYG - 97
- Mia - 97
- Ari - 95
- Hou - 91
- Was - 90
- NO - 87
- NYJ - 84
So you see the difference between, say, New England and the NY Jets. The Jets have a much higher average draft position, but a lot fewer picks, than the Patriots. So we see the strategy here employed by both teams. The Jets have traded a lot of picks to move up in the draft, hoping that the smaller quantity is made up for by improved quality. The Patriots have adopted a different approach, on the whole, using picks to trade down and add future picks. They have taken a longer-term approach, hoping that an increased volume would give them better odds at landing quality players.
Now, let's see how these approaches have worked. Let's look at the number of total years played in the NFL by these draft picks:
Rank - Team - Total Yrs Played
- Ten - 501
- SF - 492
- GB - 480
- Sea - 472
- Car - 464
- Buf - 463
- Phi - 462
- Bal - 449
- NE - 449
- NYG - 437
- SD - 436
- Ind - 435
- StL - 435
- Cle - 434
- Pit - 434
- Cin - 431
- Chi - 426
- Ari - 417
- Dal - 417
- Oak - 414
- Jax - 413
- NYJ - 412
- Den - 407
- Atl - 403
- KC - 394
- Det - 393
- Min - 386
- NO - 385
- Mia - 384
- TB - 375
- Hou - 349
- Was - 308
Those 117 draft picks have managed to play 449 years combined in the NFL. That comes to an average of 3.8 years per draft pick, which would rank the Patriots 27th in the NFL. So it's pretty clear that most of their draft picks don't achieve a whole lot in the league. The Jets, conversely, have gotten 412 years out of their 84 draft picks, for an average of 4.9 years per pick. That's much better.
But now let's talk about quality. It's one thing to have players stick in the league for a while. It's another to have them be of high quality. So we'll look at three levels of quality. The first is the number of years as a starter.
Rank - Team - # of Years as Starter
- SF - 203
- Ari - 199
- Jax - 194
- SD - 192
- Bal - 192
- NYJ - 183
- Ind - 180
- Car - 176
- GB - 173
- Cin - 173
- Ten - 171
- Chi - 170
- Sea - 169
- Pit - 165
- NE - 164
- Oak - 163
- NYG - 161
- StL - 159
- Atl - 157
- Phi - 156
- Buf - 154
- NO - 152
- Den - 151
- Cle - 151
- Dal - 149
- Det - 145
- Mia - 145
- Min - 139
- KC - 135
- Hou - 124
- TB - 113
- Was - 96
Here we see the Patriots in the middle of the pack in terms of starting seasons their draft picks have produced.
This next list shows each team's number of player-years as an All-Pro 1st teamer, and years as a Pro Bowler.
Rank - Team - All-Pro Seasons - Pro Bowl Seasons - TOT AP+PB
- NE - 12 - 44 - 56
- SF - 14 - 30 - 44
- Bal - 11 - 33 - 44
- SD - 9 - 34 - 43
- Dal - 8 - 34 - 42
- Chi - 10 - 29 - 39
- Car - 9 - 27 - 36
- NYJ - 8 - 26 - 34
- Ind - 7 - 26 - 33
- Ari - 3 - 30 - 33
- Sea - 10 - 22 - 32
- Pit - 5 - 26 - 31
- Cin - 5 - 25 - 30
- NYG - 5 - 24 - 29
- Min - 9 - 19 - 28
- KC - 8 - 19 - 27
- NO - 6 - 21 - 27
- Den - 6 - 20 - 26
- Hou - 6 - 19 - 25
- GB - 2 - 23 - 25
- Atl - 1 - 20 - 21
- Oak - 8 - 12 - 20
- Ten - 6 - 13 - 19
- Phi - 4 - 15 - 19
- Was - 0 - 19 - 19
- Cle - 3 - 11 - 14
- Buf - 1 - 13 - 14
- Jax - 2 - 11 - 13
- Det - 3 - 9 - 12
- Mia - 1 - 9 - 10
- StL - 0 - 3 - 3
- TB - 0 - 3 - 3
The Patriots have produced by far the highest number of elite seasons from their draft picks than any other team in the league. And lest we think this is just Tom Brady, consider that Brady accounts for 2 All-Pros and 8 Pro Bowls. If we remove him from the mix, the Patriots still have the highest combined number in the league. But of course, removing Tom Brady is silly, since he represents the single greatest single draft pick in this entire 13-year period, and he has had the single greatest influence in the success of the Patriots, from a player perspective.
And finally, we will look at pro-football-reference's AV stat. They have a formula for determining the value of a player, and they apply it to every position - including linemen. If you take all the draft picks and total up their entire career AV numbers, we'll see the total value each team's draft picks have produced.
Rank - Team - Total AV
- SD - 1571
- NE - 1560
- GB - 1524
- NYJ - 1498
- SF - 1493
- Car - 1490
- Bal - 1486
- Ind - 1464
- Ari - 1461
- Chi - 1443
- Pit - 1436
- Ten - 1424
- Jax - 1403
- Atl - 1397
- NYG - 1392
- Sea - 1375
- Cin - 1363
- Phi - 1337
- Dal - 1293
- Buf - 1286
- Den - 1262
- NO - 1220
- Cle - 1188
- Min - 1188
- StL - 1145
- Det - 1092
- Hou - 1083
- KC - 1060
- Mia - 1045
- Oak - 1039
- TB - 885
- Was - 851
So let's sum up what the Patriots have been able to do in the draft from 2000-2012. Starting from one of the worst average draft positions in the league, the Patriots have accumulated the highest number of draft picks in the NFL. They've used these picks to draft a better-than-average amount of player years, an average amount of player years as a starter, but, most importantly, by far the most amount of stars. The only teams that have drafted at the same level as New England are San Diego, San Francisco, Baltimore, and, somewhat surprisingly, Carolina. But when draft position is taken into consideration, the top two teams turn out to be New England and San Francisco.
Every team has significant misses in the draft, as well as significant hits. The Patriots will likely draft a player or two this year that is a total bust, but also a player or two that ends up being very good. What we do know is that, on the whole, the Patriots are one of the very best teams in the entire league at drafting, and the 13-year drafting record under Belichick is a testimony to that.
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