The Case Against Eliot Wolf

[KCSVEN]

Good points KCSVEN
I agree separation is important. The scouting reports seemed to be a mixed bag. I believe some of what you wrote may have come from Bleacher Report and are some good points. NFL Draft Buzz had "Lacks the twitch to consistantly create separation" & "Needs more nuanced route-running to consistently leverage against DB's". NFL.com - "average acceleration driving through route stems". There were also comments on his lack of strength and ability to get off the line of scrimmage. My point, it wasn't 100% concensus that he was a great seperator (I consider getting off the line of scrimmage part of that although you could put him in motion). For me, the medicals are an important part of my point of view. I'd also add, how much did defenses focus on Bowers? (Polk is a whole another conversation)

Advanced analytics Ladd was 4th in average separation and number 2 in separation once ball in the air.
Overall vs man was In 78th percentile
Polk was not so good, 65 th percentile vs man also Polk was 194th in YAC at 5.2 yards yac per catch vs Ladd at 25th with 15.9

Wasn’t really close between Ladd and Polk.

 

[Salsalife]

Tuna - then Caroll - then Belichick. Was the GM making the difference?

 

[Huckleberry1]

OT: I should think Arthur Blank now has $90m reasons to regret going with his idiot GM last year. Talk about a huge mistake.

Sources: Falcons expected to cut Kirk Cousins before $10M bonus due

Kirk Cousins' divorce from the Falcons is expected to be finalized before his $10 million roster bonus is due March 17.

www.espn.com

And they knew all along that Penix would be there at 8.

 

[silentone]

Ladd the Rookie...69 rec, 960 yards so far, bad dude. Reminds me of Welker type player. You think them numbers would Make ANY of our receivers blush...6 years my friend and we cannot keep missing these types of players. Facts

Salsalife - I get your point. Ladd McConkey is having a very good rookie year.
I wouldn't have drafted him last year at 34 and I wouldn't draft a similar player at his position with similar size issues and injury issues this year at 34.
Welker was a fun player. However, he like Amendola went undrafted, and Edelman was basically undrafted. McConkey was the 34th pick.
For me, McConkey at 34 was not good value, the fact that he is having a good year (or has a good career) doesn't change my point of view. I respect the fact that you thought he was a good pick and you feel his results justify your point of view.
While I don't think he was an awful pick at 34, I disagree with those that think the Patriots were idiots for not taking him. To me, there were sensible reasons not to take him.

 

[upstater1]

Salsalife - I get your point. Ladd McConkey is having a very good rookie year.
I wouldn't have drafted him last year at 34 and I wouldn't draft a similar player at his position with similar size issues and injury issues this year at 34.
Welker was a fun player. However, he like Amendola went undrafted, and Edelman was basically undrafted. McConkey was the 34th pick.
For me, McConkey at 34 was not good value, the fact that he is having a good year (or has a good career) doesn't change my point of view. I respect the fact that you thought he was a good pick and you feel his results justify your point of view.
While I don't think he was an awful pick at 34, I disagree with those that think the Patriots were idiots for not taking him. To me, there were sensible reasons not to take him.

Well they shouldn't have taken Polk, that's for sure. I take McConkey 100% of the time over Polk.

 

[upstater1]

Tuna - then Caroll - then Belichick. Was the GM making the difference?

With all 3 coaching ability was far more important than being a GM. We know this because Tuna inherited a horrible team with horrible talent and turned them around (granted the QB made all the difference) while Pete Carroll turned Tuna's good players into poor results. BB took many of those same players (with the QB that made all the difference) and won Super Bowls.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I disagree with all the criticism heaped on the Patriots for not drafting Ladd McConkey. While I fully acknowledge McConkey has had a strong rookie campaign, at the time of the draft I think he was a risky pick with lots of red flags and I think the Pats showed good judgement not drafting him at 34. Below are the reasons why I feel this way.

Small frame: 6 feet, 185 pounds
Tiny hands: 8 5/8

From draft sharks:
“raw college production is underwhelming”
“never led Georgia in catches or receiving yards”
“played thru turf toe & knee injuries in 2022”
“missed four games with back injury and one with ankle injury last year”
“was a part-time player last year….did not finish top two among Georgia Wrs in pas routes in a single one of his nine games”
“ninth-percentile wingspan, sixth-percentile hand size”

From NFL.com
“modest playing strength”
“alarming number of deep ball-tracking drops in 2022”

Bleacher Report:
“Very skinny frame”
“Poor play strength. Struggles to fight through contact”

NFL Draft Buzz:
Height: 36%
Weight: 15%
Hands:17%
Arm: 19%
Span: 11%

“Lacks twitch…struggles with contested catches”
“Lacks the size to consistently win on the outside, better suited for middle-field & return roles”

I fully acknowledge there are lots of things to like – his speed and athleticism – very good athlete, Won college community service award, finalist for academic Heisman. “Really smart. You can tell he watches a ton of tape with how good he is at picking up on how to attack guys he’s facing” – NFL scouting director.

He will always have small hands and small frame. I believe he will always have above average injury risk. In addition to his 2022 & 2023 college injuries, he is currently dealing with a knee injury and shoulder injury. I don’t think he is durable. Additionally, he may end up as a slot receiver. I think it’s natural, as a Patriot fan, to imagine him as another Edelman or Amendola but Edelman was the 27th pick in the 7th round and Amendola was undrafted.

At the time of the draft, I don’t think McConkey offered favorable risk/reward at pick #34 (very high second round) and still feel that way. While it’s certainly subjective, I disagree with those calling the Patriots staff unintelligent (and worse) for not drafting him there.

After the Pats missed on N'Keal Harry, Tyquan Thornton, and Ja'Lynn Polk, anyone that writes a long defense, like above, of the Polk selection has to be crazy, really crazy, like certifiably NUTS. McConkey has small hands and a small frame - please - do you want Harry or Polk with large hands and a large frame? You say that McConkey was not a risk/reward favorable risk at draft time? And Polk was? WTF?

You disagree that the Pats scouts are unintelligent after the Harry, Thornton, and Polk selections? Even if you think Harry was a BB selection, clearly BB never scouted Thornton or Polk. So you think the Pats scouts were intelligent with their Thornton and Polk selections? This post is so lacking in facts that I have no idea where to start.

 

[TommyD4207]

Signing a QB for $90m, drafting a guy with the 8th pick to replace him, and then getting stuck with a $90m payout is an idiot.

What else would you call it.

Especially with their current coach.

When the only reason you're signing Cousins is to win now. You're not dumping top-of-the-market money on a bridge QB.

 

[TommyD4207]

And they knew all along that Penix would be there at 8.

He *may* have been there at 38.

 

[mgteich]

You can cherry pick whatever scouting report you want.
Take a look at this one

Ladd McConkey Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

Most draft experts had him extremely highly rated and way ahead of Polkie. He passed the eye test and most people on this board were begging pats to take him in real time

So it did not take a genius to recognize the guy was going to be edelman or welker like

Huge f up by Wolf
They tried to get too cute and it failed miserably

Take the god damn obvious pick and stop trying to look like a genius

All you folks are saying is that you would be making the same mistake as Wolfe, reaching to find a WR or OT instead of drafting the best player available.

When we picked, the value was at DT and CB. EIGHT were taken in the next 10 picks (in addition to McConkey and Polk).

 

[Kdo5]

People's patience, or fans' patience, should not have an effect on the Pats' management. The coaching and management should do the right thing, not the popular thing.

I agree with the statement but everyone wanted Ryland gone.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I agree with the statement but everyone wanted Ryland gone.

Who is everyone? Everyone you knew? I didn't want Ryland gone. I wanted a fair and honest competition and evaluation which we did not get.

As you note, we got a lynching instead.

 

[reflexblue]

I think there is a solid data-based case to dismiss Eliot Wolf.
I know it's early in his GM tenure, and there may be some longer-term strategy behind the really questionable handling of offseason spending on OL and WR.

But here are the facts.
He's not entirely in his first year with the Patriots.
Eliot Wolf was a consultant in scouting in 2020-2021, then Director of Scouting in 2022-2023, and then GM in 2024.
So, while Bill was the official GM, Eliot was charged with providing player recommendations and influencing his final decisions on free agency and the draft.
Let's look at the results.

Red is underperformed based on the acquisition cost, green is overperformed.
No "underperforms" for fourth round draft on, but you'd like to see one hit a year at least from that group.

2022 Draft
Cole Strange
Tyquan Thornton
Marcus Jones
Jack Jones
Pierre Strong
Bailey Zappe
Kevin Harris
Sam Roberts
Chasen Hinds
Andrew Stueber

2022 Free Agency
DaVante Parker
Mack Wilson
Raekwon McMillan
DaMarcus Mitchell
Jabrill Peppers

2022 Key Departures
Jarrett Stidham
Shaq Mason
Ted Karras

2023 Draft
Christian Gonzalez
Keion White
Marte Mapu
Jake Andrews
Chad Ryland
Sidy Sow
Atonio Mafi
Kayshon Boutte
Bryce Barringer
Demario Douglas
Ameer Speed
Isaiah Bolden

2023 Free Agency
Ezekiel Elliot
JuJu Smith Schuster
Mike Gesicki
Tyrone Wheatley Jr
Riley Reiff
Calvin Anderson

2023 Key Departures
Pierre Strong
Jakobi Meyers
Johnnu Smith
Nick Folk

2024 Draft
Drake Maye
Ja'Lynn Polk
Caedan Wallace
Layden Robinson
Javon Baker
Marcellas Dial
Joe Milton
Jaheim Bell

2024 Free Agency
Jacoby Brissett
Antonio Gibson
JaMycal Hasty
Austin Hooper
Chukwama Okorafor
Nick Leverett
Michael Jordan
Christian Elliss
Marco Wilson
Dell Pettus
JaLinn Hawkins
Joey Slye

2024 Key Departures
DaVante Parker
JuJu Smith Schuster
Mike Gesicki
Trent Brown
Lawrence Guy
Matthew Judon
Chad Ryland

Seven hits - including Drake Maye, which was a complete layup.
Sixteen misses. More if you include mistakes of omission.
You can debate - well, I really think it's eight hits. Or you can't count over-drafting a kicker in the fourth as a miss. Not replacing Lawrence Guy was really a miss. No penalties assessed for the contract decisions on Dugg
Plenty of debate possible.
However, it's a LOT more misses than hits.

While the offense has been terrible, most of us question whether it's the roster more than the coaches. Complete lack of talent across the OL and WR roster.
And that's on Wolf.
The decisions in 2024 were terrible, and the personnel decisions in which he had influence under Bill were terrible.
This draft - too early to evaluate - but signs that all they got was the #3 overall pick.

I would immediately replace Eliot Wolf.

Gee just what we needed Another eliot wolf thread, now i can rest in peace

 

[mgcolby]

The 2024 roster!

 

[silentone]

Advanced analytics Ladd was 4th in average separation and number 2 in separation once ball in the air.
Overall vs man was In 78th percentile
Polk was not so good, 65 th percentile vs man also Polk was 194th in YAC at 5.2 yards yac per catch vs Ladd at 25th with 15.9

Wasn’t really close between Ladd and Polk.

After the Pats missed on N'Keal Harry, Tyquan Thornton, and Ja'Lynn Polk, anyone that writes a long defense, like above, of the Polk selection has to be crazy, really crazy, like certifiably NUTS. McConkey has small hands and a small frame - please - do you want Harry or Polk with large hands and a large frame? You say that McConkey was not a risk/reward favorable risk at draft time? And Polk was? WTF?

You disagree that the Pats scouts are unintelligent after the Harry, Thornton, and Polk selections? Even if you think Harry was a BB selection, clearly BB never scouted Thornton or Polk. So you think the Pats scouts were intelligent with their Thornton and Polk selections? This post is so lacking in facts that I have no idea where to start.

Hi One-If-By-Sea -

I believe you have misunderstood my post.

I've made no comments on the Polk selection.
I've made no comments about Harry or Thorton or Bill Belichick.
I've made no comments about any decisions the Pats Scouts have made, other than to say I don't think they are idiots for not drafting McConkey at 34.

I understand why people like him and respect that opinion. I wouldn't have taken him at 34, and would have been midly disappointed had they.

I simply don't think the Patriots are stupid for not taking McConkey.

It's not clear to me if you think they should have taken McConkey or not.

 

[silentone]

You can cherry pick whatever scouting report you want.
Take a look at this one

Ladd McConkey Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

Most draft experts had him extremely highly rated and way ahead of Polkie. He passed the eye test and most people on this board were begging pats to take him in real time

So it did not take a genius to recognize the guy was going to be edelman or welker like

Huge f up by Wolf
They tried to get too cute and it failed miserably

Take the god damn obvious pick and stop trying to look like a genius

Hey Sam Bam Cunningham - (I remember seeing the USC highlights when the Pats drafted him and enjoyed watching him)

- Agree about cherry picking scouting reports (although I'll note that your link has him ranked as the 10th wr with the following weaknesses....which are some of my concerns.)

Weaknesses (from your link)​

• Modest play strength could create issues in beating press.
• Limited production in 2023 due to back and ankle injuries.
• Alarming number of deep ball-tracking drops in 2022.
• Average acceleration driving through route stems.
  
  Can we agree his history of injuries and weak frame present risk?
  Edelman, Welker, Amendola were undrafted or late 7th round pick in Edelman's case.
  
  So to me, the question is what is his expected value as the 34th pick. I don't think he was a screaming buy at 34. He wasn't projected as a mid-first rounder who fell, right? My only point is I don't think the Pats were stupid in what I believe was their thinking. I fully appreciate the logic of not taking him at 34. Many on this board seem to be outraged they didn't take McConkey. I don't share that view.

 

[captain stone]

Thanks for the clarification. That makes his track record with the team worse than I thought.

Exactly. It's why the argument for retaining Wolfie (& Al Groh's kid too) - that it's only Year 1 of the Rebuild - simply doesn't hold water.

 

[captain stone]

Salsalife - I get your point. Ladd McConkey is having a very good rookie year.
I wouldn't have drafted him last year at 34 and I wouldn't draft a similar player at his position with similar size issues and injury issues this year at 34.
Welker was a fun player. However, he like Amendola went undrafted, and Edelman was basically undrafted. McConkey was the 34th pick.
For me, McConkey at 34 was not good value, the fact that he is having a good year (or has a good career) doesn't change my point of view. I respect the fact that you thought he was a good pick and you feel his results justify your point of view.
While I don't think he was an awful pick at 34, I disagree with those that think the Patriots were idiots for not taking him. To me, there were sensible reasons not to take him.

What are your thoughts on Adonai Mitchell? I liked him a lot better than Polk where each was drafted... Not much production, but at least in his case there are legit NFL WRs ahead of him in the pecking order...

 

[mnpatfan]

Doctor Feelgood, I mean Wolf, told us this past summer than he felt good about the Pats OL situation.

Assuming he actually believed this and wasn't just prescribing tranquilizers to the Pats fan base, that's all you need to know about his talent evaluation ability.

 

[Huckleberry1]

All you folks are saying is that you would be making the same mistake as Wolfe, reaching to find a WR or OT instead of drafting the best player available.

When we picked, the value was at DT and CB. EIGHT were taken in the next 10 picks (in addition to McConkey and Polk).

The best choice for the Patriots in the 2nd round was Jackson Powers-Johnson.