AFC 7th seed discussion

[jdlboot14]

Ya, just like the last 3 years - we lost too many close games with "should have won" potential.
That will be the reason we are out of the conversation at the end.
But, we could compete in the next 4 - and even make it to 6-8.
I just think we don't have what it takes to beat the Bills this year. So, I expect us to finish 7-10 at best.

 

[BTTA]

It is definitely up for grabs. The teams jockeying for that seed play each other a lot.

If the Pats can go on a run of some kind then they can certainly insert themselves into the conversation. Their upcoming slate:
- Home vs Rams
- Away @ Dolphins
- Home vs Colts
BYE
- Away @ Cardinals
- Away @ Bills
- Home vs Chargers
- Home vs Bills

If they manage to win, let’s say, 3 out of 4 of the next 4 games then they will be 6-8 and definitely be in striking distance; they may even be in the 7th seed itself depending on how other games have gone by then. They probably will fail to clinch the spot due to the difficulty of the final 3 games, but the chance at that opportunity could push them to steal a win from Buffalo who may have little to play for in the final week, etc.

OMG I love your optimism, the world certainly needs more of it.
I think 2 more wins, and playing the good teams tough in the other losses, is the middle of the bell curve here.

 

[Real fan 02]

Ya, just like the last 3 years - we lost too many close games with "should have won" potential.
That will be the reason we are out of the conversation at the end.
But, we could compete in the next 4 - and even make it to 6-8.
I just think we don't have what it takes to beat the Bills this year. So, I expect us to finish 7-10 at best.

Agreed. Defense should have gained alot of confidence yesterday going forward. But the roster is just too devoided of talent to go on a run. Drake has to make chicken soup out of chicken **** with his WRs.

 

[Kdo5]

Drake Maye is the only reason for the existence of this thread.

Without him we are clearly the worst team in the league.

Not bad for a rook.

A QB makes a big difference. It can’t get us too far but enough to reach middle of the road status.

 

[Real fan 02]

Drake Maye is the only reason for the existence of this thread.

Without him we are clearly the worst team in the league.

Not bad for a rook.

Absolutely the guy makes plays that aren't there. I swear his game reminds of Allen so much. I know in the offseason he will add some muscle and bulk to his frame. This guy at 22 years old is definitely a leader.

 

[StockingAnarchyNumber12]

It definitely won’t be us.

Probably Denver or Cincinnati.

 

[Ross12]

OMG I love your optimism, the world certainly needs more of it.
I think 2 more wins, and playing the good teams tough in the other losses, is the middle of the bell curve here.

Yeah, 2 more wins definitely seems like the more likely/realistic scenario. I said somewhere here in a thread that I think 3 more wins to put them at 6 wins total would probably be slightly exceeding expectations for the year with this roster and the injuries they've had, and would put them on a good track for next year and help sell their situation to free agents this March. But 5 wins is probably most likely.

 

[Ross12]

To your points. Even if they somehow got to 6 or even 7 wins.. it would be miraculous they do that, but not out the realm of possibilities. It would do so, so much for the culture of the team going forward to end the season with a winning culture . The arrow would be definitely pointing up towards 2025.

Yeah the point I am trying to make is that if they got their 6th win before either of their Bills games, they'd definitely be one of those teams "in the hunt" for a wild card spot. They'd be very unlikely to actually make it, because it would require beating the Bills once or even twice to get in, but they'd be in a sort of "control your own destiny" type position - or very close to it.

 

[Real fan 02]

Yeah the point I am trying to make is that if they got their 6th win before either of their Bills games, they'd definitely be one of those teams "in the hunt" for a wild card spot. They'd be very unlikely to actually make it, because it would require beating the Bills once or even twice to get in, but they'd be in a sort of "control your own destiny" type position - or very close to it.

Yeah I agree there. After loosing what 5,6 straight? It would be great for so many reasons to finish the last part of season on a high note. If they caught lighting in a bottle I'd say 7 wins max. But I'm thinking maybe 5 wins to end the season. We can count losses to Miami and Buffalo 2x for sure. However it's utterly impressive how the mayo hasn't lost the locker room.

 

[jmt57]

AFC Playoff Picture

The AFC Playoff Picture table presents the probabilities that a team will win each NFL playoff spot.

www.playoffstatus.com

1.) - 99% - Chiefs
2.) - 99% - Bills
3.) - 97% - Steelers
4.) - 94% - Texans
5.) - 95% - Ravens
6.) - 88% - Chargers
7.) - 52% - Broncos

8.) - 33% - Colts
9.) - 17% - Bengals
10) - 10% - Jets
11.) - 2% - Patriots
12.) - 4% - Dolphins
13.) - 1% - Browns
14.) - 3% - Titans
15.) - 2% - Raiders
16.) - 1% - Jaguars

 

[TomPatriot]

Just saying what's possible, though I don't believe it would actually happen. Is it outside the realm of possibility that this team could beat the Rams, Dolphins, Colts or Cardinals? Or even the Chargers, for that matter? I don't EXPECT them to win any of those, but I wouldn't be totally shocked at this point if they got a couple of wins in there. If they exceed expectations and win more than half of those, then they're probably floating in the conversation for the 7 seed.

Ok, fair enough. I was just being a little snarky.

I’d be pretty happy with 6 or more wins given the talent level.

 

[Real fan 02]

AFC Playoff Picture

The AFC Playoff Picture table presents the probabilities that a team will win each NFL playoff spot.

www.playoffstatus.com

1.) - 99% - Chiefs
2.) - 99% - Bills
3.) - 97% - Steelers
4.) - 94% - Texans
5.) - 95% - Ravens
6.) - 88% - Chargers
7.) - 52% - Broncos

8.) - 33% - Colts
9.) - 17% - Bengals
10) - 10% - Jets
11.) - 2% - Patriots
12.) - 4% - Dolphins
13.) - 1% - Browns
14.) - 3% - Titans
15.) - 2% - Raiders
16.) - 1% - Jaguars

Well that 2% chance is still higher than my power Ball odds

 

[Real fan 02]

Ok, fair enough. I was just being a little snarky.

I’d be pretty happy with 6 or more wins given the talent level.

Just thought out send you this. Of the FA WRs to be. It's pretty evident Drake needs some help It's Boutte and occasionally pop.

 

[Ross12]

AFC Playoff Picture

The AFC Playoff Picture table presents the probabilities that a team will win each NFL playoff spot.

www.playoffstatus.com

1.) - 99% - Chiefs
2.) - 99% - Bills
3.) - 97% - Steelers
4.) - 94% - Texans
5.) - 95% - Ravens
6.) - 88% - Chargers
7.) - 52% - Broncos

8.) - 33% - Colts
9.) - 17% - Bengals
10) - 10% - Jets
11.) - 2% - Patriots
12.) - 4% - Dolphins
13.) - 1% - Browns
14.) - 3% - Titans
15.) - 2% - Raiders
16.) - 1% - Jaguars

2% is about right. Also, LOL at the Jets' 10%, HAHA

 

[KCSVEN]

I'm thinking that defense was more related to the Bears being Putrid than a sudden improvement in defense. Bears haven't scored a TD in 2 games now.
Teams with a not such a bad offense will be tougher to beat.
Everyone they face will be much better offense than the Bears.
Rams, Dolphins Colts, Chargers in the middle of NFL offenses but Bills and Cardinals closer to the top.
Colts probably weakest of the group. Best chance to win another IMO.
Teams that are good and buy into the coaching play better in November and December. Interesting to see how team does down the stretch.

 

[tasmlab]

If the win/math miracle works and they get #7, that means they'll have to chew through some combination of the Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens, Bills, etc, to make it to the big show. I like our chances!

Off topic, but what that back up QB, team of nobodies, and second year head coach did in 2001 was pretty impressive.

 

[StockingAnarchyNumber12]

Too bad we lost a couple games that we could have won. With better coaching we’re at least in the hunt

 

[Drunken Cicerone]

It is definitely up for grabs. The teams jockeying for that seed play each other a lot.

If the Pats can go on a run of some kind then they can certainly insert themselves into the conversation. Their upcoming slate:
- Home vs Rams
- Away @ Dolphins
- Home vs Colts
BYE
- Away @ Cardinals
- Away @ Bills
- Home vs Chargers
- Home vs Bills

If they manage to win, let’s say, 3 out of 4 of the next 4 games then they will be 6-8 and definitely be in striking distance; they may even be in the 7th seed itself depending on how other games have gone by then. They probably will fail to clinch the spot due to the difficulty of the final 3 games, but the chance at that opportunity could push them to steal a win from Buffalo who may have little to play for in the final week, etc.

Unless this team has turned a massive corner that none of us expected there not more than 1-2 wins left on that schedule. And it’s probably for the best

 

[Family]

Dolphins won last night.

Anyone have the updated magic number.

 

[Ross12]

Unless this team has turned a massive corner that none of us expected there not more than 1-2 wins left on that schedule. And it’s probably for the best

I'd agree, I expect 2 more wins. However, it would be nice if they got 3. If they get more than 3 then they are probably hanging around playoff contention depending upon which games are won.