First round QB/LT/WR draft busts and disappointments in recent years

[upstater1]

Much love but I have a serious nitpick here...

Flacco never had that passer rating when he was a full time starter-- and only came close twice. Career rating: 84. He was always just mediocre enough to rank ahead of guys who were about to lose their jobs or become busts. Just like Eli but with more suck.

And his career TD-INT is 252-156.

Goff's rating since the start of '22 is over 100. His career TD-INT is 198-86.

No comparison.

I actually didn't check Flacco's #s. Just threw him out there.

I don't think 94 is a "great" rating in this era. It's merely good.

 

[stinkypete]

My takeaway from this is that, while we traditionally view LT as being one of the more "sure thing" positions to draft in round 1, the last five drafts have produced a very weak crop. Sewell is the only one I would consider a star. As much as we mock the prospect of Lowell as a long term LT, he is outperforming several recent top picks.

 

[Drunken Cicerone]

Keenan Allen, Mike Williams yeah your right he never had any weapons.

To be fair the Chargers have also had a bottom five defense every single season Herbert has been there.

I think healthy Ekeler, Williams and Allen were certainly decent enough weapons to put up good numbers and he did. But the team also gave up almost 26 PPG a game since Herbert took over.

 

[Ray Ray 717]

I’m sorry but not classifying Mac Jones as a bust is incredibly bias and laughable.

 

[NFL Mystique]

Murray a star. Stroud a starter? Tbh these should be flipped. Mac Jones being a disappointment and not a bust is somewhat explainable. He had terrible cocoaching That needs to be factored in.

 

[NFL Mystique]

@upstater1, you wouldn't trade first picks for Herbert now because of Maye? Isn't the hope that Maye becomes a Herbert type player? One is established. The other is hopefully going to be established someday.

 

[stinkypete]

You touched on my point. I, like many posters was down on him this season. However he's turning out to be a pretty good NFL tackle. If he continues playing well he will see a nice extension. I don't know what he contract is. I just know he was 6th round pick from Minnesota

Going back to the original data about recently drafted tackles, it seems that right tackles have emerged more consistently than left tackles over the past 5 years.

IIRC, the verdict on Lowe when we picked him up was that he had the athletic profile to be a starting tackle, but was raw, would need patience and coaching. A long shot but a long shot with the tools to get it done. If he can even be league average, it'd be a huge win.

If we could go into the next draft, take Hunter in round 1 and a right tackle in round two, move Onwenu back inside where he's best, we have ourselves a pretty decent offensive cast.

 

[Toofy]

My takeaway from this is that, while we traditionally view LT as being one of the more "sure thing" positions to draft in round 1, the last five drafts have produced a very weak crop. Sewell is the only one I would consider a star. As much as we mock the prospect of Lowell as a long term LT, he is outperforming several recent top picks.

This this this.... It's in our best interest that Lowe becomes our long term LT starter .. even if he has growing pains hopefully he becomes a top 20 LT in this league . That should be sufficient for us.

Considering next year is a week crop and we pick in top 10 I would want a game changer on defense or offense. So best player available is whom we should take.

If we can take the best corner we should. My guess for draft order is

Panthers, titans, giants , pats/ jags. So we will have a top 5 pick . If the tackle can be obtained in top 20 better to trade down to 10 get a game changer there and trade back up to 20 and get our right tackle.

We have needs at wr, CB , de and LB and I am sure we can get a pro bowler at pick 10.

 

[sb1]

For QBs I think a star is also someone who can and has elevated their team to be better than they really are. I’d put Murray in that category. Herbert too. Goff maybe if he keeps up his elite play with Detroit. I wouldn’t say he was a star with LA.

 

[upstater1]

@upstater1, you wouldn't trade first picks for Herbert now because of Maye? Isn't the hope that Maye becomes a Herbert type player? One is established. The other is hopefully going to be established someday.

I would not for obvious reasons. 1st round picks are valuable. Maye may become as good as Herbert. He may even become BETTER than Herbert. Maye is younger than Herbert.

 

[Real fan 02]

To be fair the Chargers have also had a bottom five defense every single season Herbert has been there.

I think healthy Ekeler, Williams and Allen were certainly decent enough weapons to put up good numbers and he did. But the team also gave up almost 26 PPG a game since Herbert took over.

That's true. Herbert himself have also been injured alot.

 

[1960Pats]

Looking at the Raiders, it’s not hard to see why they have not been contenders for over two decades. Their drafting has been atrocious and not just Ruggs either. Dunno if any Raider fans drop by here but I’d be curious to get their perspective.

Still don’t know why Robert Gallery faceplanted like he did back in the day. IIRC he was considered a generational prospect on the OL. We signed him but he decided to retire for some reason.

I just finished the Raiders drafts from 00-24 but I haven't had time to sort it all out. Once I finish the Chargers I'll have all the info for the entire AFCE for the last 25 years. I have the round, pick number, position, total number of games played, the AV rating from PFR and where each player is now (minus the trades from the past couple of weeks).

I can't wait to start poking around with the numbers and see what shakes out. I'm also hoping to come up with a way to measure a pick's success compared to the actual number when the player was picked. Tom Brady at #199 was a better pick than Mahomes at #10.

 

[1960Pats]

What's not to like? He's been at least half decent. Still just inexperienced enough and young enough to improve a bit. He catches some stray punches when people make blanket statements like "the whole o-line is trash" but he's been 0% of the problems on the line (except for missing games).

I don't blame anyone for thinking he might be the worst OT in the league before. That was then. At some point you gotta move on from an outdated evaluation and make a new one.

It's amazing to me how differently players develop. Some players take a lot more time than others and some never get it at all.

 

[Sciz]

Going back to the original data about recently drafted tackles, it seems that right tackles have emerged more consistently than left tackles over the past 5 years.

IIRC, the verdict on Lowe when we picked him up was that he had the athletic profile to be a starting tackle, but was raw, would need patience and coaching. A long shot but a long shot with the tools to get it done. If he can even be league average, it'd be a huge win.

If we could go into the next draft, take Hunter in round 1 and a right tackle in round two, move Onwenu back inside where he's best, we have ourselves a pretty decent offensive cast.

Yeah, Wolf specifically mentioned how Lowe’s hand usage was a weakness when it had the potential to be a strength given his long arms. They hired a hand fighting specialist as their OL coach, and now Lowe is actually playable.

 

[Real fan 02]

Yeah, Wolf specifically mentioned how Lowe’s hand usage was a weakness when it had the potential to be a strength given his long arms. They hired a hand fighting specialist as their OL coach, and now Lowe is actually playable.

I tip my hat to him for getting better. If he continues to play well he may have earned himself a nice contract extension.

 

[Brotherblues]

I actually didn't check Flacco's #s. Just threw him out there.

I don't think 94 is a "great" rating in this era. It's merely good.

True. That's why I prefer rankings instead of stats.

Elite Joe Flacco usually ranked about 15th-20th in passer rating and cracked top 10 maybe once that he qualified. Over the last 3 seasons Goff has ranked 7th, 9th, and is currently 2nd.

I'm not trying to pimp Goff, just pointing out that Flacco was mediocre to subpar his whole tenure as a full time starter. Same as Eli but worse.

 

[sb1]

I’m sorry but not classifying Mac Jones as a bust is incredibly bias and laughable.

Jones might be able to play in the league with the right team and coaching around him. There’s enough evidence of that in his first year. That’s not a bust. And he didn’t get any of that his last two seasons here. He was a disappointment for a first round draft pick.

 

[Real fan 02]

I would not for obvious reasons. 1st round picks are valuable. Maye may become as good as Herbert. He may even become BETTER than Herbert. Maye is younger than Herbert.

Injuries have affected Herbert in his career he's still a top 10 QB In the league. I believe that by seasons end Drake will be in the conversation of a top 10 QB as well.

 

[Water Boy]

@sb1 @PatsFan2


Figured you guys would like this LOL.

I don't think Lowe is anywhere near as bad as people think when he's healthy. He's been scapegoated for the entirety of the lines problems at times when it has been a **** show at every position.

 

[upstater1]

Jones might be able to play in the league with the right team and coaching around him. There’s enough evidence of that in his first year. That’s not a bust. And he didn’t get any of that his last two seasons here. He was a disappointment for a first round draft pick.

Mac jones is the 2nd worst QB my eyes have ever seen. In his first yr, the opposing coaches figured him out with enough footage. His last 3rd of the season was abysmal.

It was as bad as anything that came afterward.

In the short time he played this year, he managed to turn the ball over on the first play, and on the second he threw a ball that's a pick-6 99% of the time.