First round QB/LT/WR draft busts and disappointments in recent years

[sb1]

I think I need to see a little more from Goff before I call him a star. For sure he’s better than he was when we saw him in the Super Bowl, but he hasn’t played at an elite level for that long. He wasn’t good in the game in Foxboro in 22 where Bailey Zappe and the boys shut them out.

 

[Brotherblues]

@sb1 @PatsFan2


Figured you guys would like this LOL.

What's not to like? He's been at least half decent. Still just inexperienced enough and young enough to improve a bit. He catches some stray punches when people make blanket statements like "the whole o-line is trash" but he's been 0% of the problems on the line (except for missing games).

I don't blame anyone for thinking he might be the worst OT in the league before. That was then. At some point you gotta move on from an outdated evaluation and make a new one.

 

[Real fan 02]

What's not to like? He's been at least half decent. Still just inexperienced enough and young enough to improve a bit. He catches some stray punches when people make blanket statements like "the whole o-line is trash" but he's been 0% of the problems on the line (except for missing games).

I don't blame anyone for thinking he might be the worst OT in the league before. That was then. At some point you gotta move on from an outdated evaluation and make a new one.

You touched on my point. I, like many posters was down on him this season. However he's turning out to be a pretty good NFL tackle. If he continues playing well he will see a nice extension. I don't know what he contract is. I just know he was 6th round pick from Minnesota

 

[upstater1]

Put it this way: Would you rather have Goff or Tua? Goff 100%. Would you rather have Goff or Murray? Goff 100%.

The Goff versus Herbert is tougher. Herbert is definitely outplaying Goff this year, but not by a lot. Last year, Goff versus Herbert was QB rating 98 versus 93, TD to Int was 30/12 to 20/7, total yards 4575 to 3134, and completion % 69% to 65%. Goff had better numbers over a 17 game season last year - I bet a lot of posters find that surprising - Goff gets a negative rap. I would probably pick Herbert too, but Herbert throws a lot of shorter passes which does not win games. Goff is a great QB.

I'm looking beyond the stats. The team counts too.

 

[upstater1]

Herbert is Mahomes Byaaaach and he's also overrated. Goff is playing Great.

Herbert would never turtle like Goff has multiple times.

 

[Real fan 02]

Herbert is Mahomes Byaaaach and he's also overrated. Goff is playing Great.

Big time over rated . He scored 6 points last season against us.

 

[Real fan 02]

It may be a very long time then where Maye is anything more than a starter, LOL!

I think we have to actually compliment players for their play.

Put it this way: would I rather have Goff or Herbert?

Herbert 100%

Herbert been the biggest NFL tease. Dan Campbell credited Goff with being able to allow the lions to do what they do on offense.

 

[UrbanCowboy]

I think he's amazing. If we didn't have Maye, I'd trade 3 #1s for the guy instantly.

He's the kind of guy you win championships with. An absolute gamer. He has great control of the pocket, he has a good accurate arm, and most importantly, he keeps his eyes trained downfield, moves through progressions, and is absolutely fearless in the pocket.

I go back and forth between him and Burrows.

Burrows gets happy feet and jittery sometimes. He is not Mr. Cool, as he's portrayed. Herbert is the real Mr. Cool.

I'm with you on Herbert. The [bad] luck of the draw in being stuck with that loser San Diego, um wait, LA ? franchise (they are a truly horrible franchise) Maybe Harbaugh will straighten it out and then watch out.

 

[upstater1]

Herbert been the biggest NFL tease. Dan Campbell credited Goff with being able to allow the lions to do what they do on offense.

Goff has choked 2x in the playoffs. Shriveled and turtled.

The Chargers haven't had a dec ent cast around Herbert.

Wait, did you think his coach was going to denigrate his QB? Was that a possiblity?

 

[sb1]

The discussion about drafting kickers in the other thread inspired this list. Top 4 rounds since 1980 -

Sebastian Janikowski, Round 1, Pick No. 17, Oakland Raiders (2000) - star, one of the GOATs at the position. But a 1st round pick....?
Tony Zendejas, Round 1, Pick No. 27, Washington Redskins (1984, Supplemental Draft) - starter
John Lee, Round 2, Pick No. 5, Cardinals (1986) - bust
Mike Nugent, Round 2, Pick No. 15, Jets (2005) - starter
Roberto Aguayo, Round 2, Pick No. 59, Bucs (2016) - massive bust
Jason Hanson, Round 2, Pick No 56, Lions (1992) - star
Chip Lohmiller, Round 2, Pick No 55, Redskins (1988) - star
Nate Kaeding, Round 3, Pick No. 65, Chargers (2004) - star
Jason Elam, Round 3, Pick No. 70, Broncos (1993) - star
Steve McLaughlin, Round 3, Pick No. 82, Rams (1995) - NFL bust but made a name for himself in Arena
Martin Gramatica, Round 3, Pick No. 80, Bucs (1999) - starter
Doug Brien, Round 3, Pick No. 85, 49ers (1994) - journeyman
Jeff Jaeger, Round 3, Pick No. 82, Browns (1987) - starter
Brett Conway, Round 3, Pick No. 90, Packers (1997) - bust, didn't make the team
Bill Gramatica, Round 4, Pick No. 98, Cardinals (2001) - injured on a celebration derailed his career
Chuck Nelson, Round 4, Pick No. 87, Rams (1983) - journeyman
Morten Andersen, Round 4, Pick No. 86, Saints (1982) - star, one of the GOATs
Jeff Chandler, Round 4, Pick No. 102, 49ers (2002) - journeyman
Travis Dorsch, Round 4, Pick No. 109, Bengals (2002) - never made it above practice squad. Forgot he was on ours
Ralf Mojsiejenko, Round 4, Pick No. 96, Chargers (1985) - converted to punter
John Kasay, Round 4, Pick No. 98, Seahawks (1991) - star (despite his Super Bowl blunder)
Teddy Garcia, Round 4, Pick No. 100, Pats (1988) - journeyman
Max Zendejas, Round 4, Pick No 100, Cowboys (1986) - journeyman
Cade York, Round 4, Pick No 124, Browns (2022) - journeyman
Stephen Gostkowski, Round 4, Pick No 118, Pats (2006) - star. In the top 10 for GOAT
Kevin Butler, Round 4, Pick No 105, Bears (1985) - star
Alex Henery, Round 4, Pick No 120, Eagles (2011) - starter

Pretty good "hit" rate on kickers drafted high... I didn't analyze the later rounds but I think there's just as good a hit rate there too.

 

[Real fan 02]

Goff has choked 2x in the playoffs. Shriveled and turtled.

The Chargers haven't had a dec ent cast around Herbert.

Wait, did you think his coach was going to denigrate his QB? Was that a possiblity?

Goff has been somewhere Herbert will likely never be to a superbowl and has another chance to get the lions back there. I like Herbert but he's nothing more than a tease QB. Oops my fault Herberts issue's were all coaching related that's right!! He's had 3 different HCs and still hasn't been more than a tease.

 

[Real fan 02]

Goff has choked 2x in the playoffs. Shriveled and turtled.

The Chargers haven't had a dec ent cast around Herbert.

Wait, did you think his coach was going to denigrate his QB? Was that a possiblity?

Keenan Allen, Mike Williams yeah your right he never had any weapons.

 

[Toofy]

I am salivating at the prospect of Ben brown and Lowe transforming into starters. That will be the impetus that this franchise needs. Solving 2 major pieces without expending draft assets.

I think our drafting is like a crapshoot especially first 3 rounds . Have underperformed significantly over last 5 seasons. Probably bottom 5 across the league .

Need to overpay for tee Higgins .

 

[Sciz]

Still don’t know why Robert Gallery faceplanted like he did back in the day. IIRC he was considered a generational prospect on the OL. We signed him but he decided to retire for some reason.

Arm length. The number I’m seeing is 32¼ inches, which is over 3 inches shorter than Lowe and almost 4 inches shorter than Jacobs.

 

[upstater1]

Keenan Allen, Mike Williams yeah your right he never had any weapons.

Perennially injured Kennan Allen who missed 12 games in his last 2 yrs and is old as hell at 32.
Mike Williams is even worse. Missed 19 games in his last 2 years with the Chargers.

I mean, sure, great weapons... who rarely play.

Williams, when he did play a full season, was not all that hot either. Average # of receptions in a full year is in the 40s.
Allen is amazingly productive. With Herbert. When he plays.

Their top receiver this year is Ladd McConkey

 

[upstater1]

Goff has been somewhere Herbert will likely never be to a superbowl and has another chance to get the lions back there. I like Herbert but he's nothing more than a tease QB. Oops my fault Herberts issue's were all coaching related that's right!! He's had 3 different HCs and still hasn't been more than a tease.

Goff is a good QB. But also a choker. His regular season stats are not really eye-popping or anything to really pay attention to.

2-1 TDs to INT ratio and passer rating at 94.

Very Joe Flacco-ish

 

[gobesmug]

Goff is a good QB. But also a choker. His regular season stats are not really eye-popping or anything to really pay attention to.

2-1 TDs to INT ratio and passer rating at 94.

Very Joe Flacco-ish

And yet Joe Flacco has something Herbert will probably never have. A superbowl ring.

So the Joe Flacco comparison doesn't help your case

 

[Rob0729]

WR's. Looks like not all WR classes are equal.

​

Year	No.	Round	Pick	Player	Name	Team
2024​	1​	1​	4​	4​	Marvin Harrison Jr​	Cardinals​	Starter​
	2​	1​	6​	6​	Malik Nabers​	Giants​	Starter​
	3​	1​	9​	9​	Rome Odunze​	Bears​	Starter​
	4​	1​	23​	23​	Brian Thomas​	Jaguars​	Starter​
	5​	1​	28​	28​	Xavier Worthy​	Chiefs​	Starter​
	6​	1​	31​	31​	Ricky Pearsall​	49ers​	New starter, NFI most of season​
	7​	1​	32​	32​	Xavier Legette​	Panthers​	Starter​
2023​	1​	1​	20​	20​	Jaxon Smith-Njigba​	Seahawks​	Starter​
	2​	1​	21​	21​	Quentin Johnston​	Chargers​	Starter​
	3​	1​	22​	22​	Zay Flowers​	Ravens​	Starter, trending to star​
	4​	1​	23​	23​	Jordan Addison​	Vikings​	Starter​
2022​	1​	1​	8​	8​	Drake London​	Falcons​	Starter​
	2​	1​	10​	10​	Garrett Wilson​	Jets​	Star​
	3​	1​	11​	11​	Chris Olave​	Saints​	Starter, trending to disappointment w/injuries​
	4​	1​	12​	12​	Jameson Williams​	Lions​	Disappointment, legal issues​
	5​	1​	16​	16​	Jahan Dotson​	Commanders​	Disappointment​
	6​	1​	18​	18​	Treylon Burks​	Titans​	Disappointment. Also looks injury prone​
2021​	1​	1​	5​	5​	Ja'Marr Chase​	Bengals​	Star​
	2​	1​	6​	6​	Jaylen Waddle​	Dolphins​	Starter​
	3​	1​	10​	10​	DeVonta Smith​	Eagles​	Starter​
	4​	1​	20​	20​	Kadarius Toney​	Giants​	Disappointment​
	5​	1​	27​	27​	Rashod Bateman​	Ravens​	Starter​
2020​	1​	1​	12​	12​	Henry Ruggs​	Raiders​	Bust​
	2​	1​	15​	15​	Jerry Jeudy​	Broncos​	Disappointment w/injuries​
	3​	1​	17​	17​	CeeDee Lamb​	Cowboys​	Star​
	4​	1​	21​	21​	Jalen Reagor​	Eagles​	Bust for where he was drafted​
	5​	1​	22​	22​	Justin Jefferson​	Vikings​	Star​
	6​	1​	25​	25​	Brandon Aiyuk​	49ers​	Star​
2019​	1​	1​	25​	25​	Marquise Brown​	Ravens​	Disappointment w/injuries. Out for season​
	2​	1​	32​	32​	N'Keal Harry​	Patriots​	​

This list is completely wrong. We are talking about WRs. They are all stars, at least in their own minds.

 

[Brotherblues]

Goff is a good QB. But also a choker. His regular season stats are not really eye-popping or anything to really pay attention to.

2-1 TDs to INT ratio and passer rating at 94.

Very Joe Flacco-ish

Much love but I have a serious nitpick here...

Flacco never had that passer rating when he was a full time starter-- and only came close twice. Career rating: 84. He was always just mediocre enough to rank ahead of guys who were about to lose their jobs or become busts. Just like Eli but with more suck.

And his career TD-INT is 252-156.

Goff's rating since the start of '22 is over 100. His career TD-INT is 198-86.

No comparison.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Roberto Aguayo, Round 2, Pick No. 59, Bucs (2016) - massive bust

I've said this before, but I'll say it again . . . I literally have no understanding of how anyone could come to the conclusion that this was worth a second-round pick:

2013: 8/9 in the 40s, 1/1 from 50+
2014: 6/8, 3/4
2015: 4/7, 1/3

Sure, he was basically automatic from inside 40, but that's a basic requirement, not a selling point.