First round QB/LT/WR draft busts and disappointments in recent years

sb1 · Nov 1, 2024

Bust -
Out of the league, or a pick that never came close to deserving their high selection. Probably better alternatives at their position. Definitely a failed draft pick.

Disappointment -
Not a total bust at least not yet. Might have made it through their rookie deal. Not necessarily a high 1st round pick. Injuries or other factors might have derailed his career.

2015
Winston (1) - disappointment
Mariota (2) - disappointment

2016
Goff (1) - starter
Wentz (2) - disappointment
Lynch (26) - bust

2017
Trubisky (2) - bust
Mahomes (10) - star
Watson (12) - disappointment

2018
Mayfield (1) - starter
Darnold (3) - starter
Allen (7) - star
Rosen (10) - bust
Lamar (32) - star

2019
Murray (1) - star
D. Jones (6) - disappointment
Haskins (15) - bust. RIP

2020
Burrow (1) - star
Tua (5) - starter
Herbert (6) - star
Love (26) - starter

2021
Lawrence (1) - starter
Z Wilson (2) - bust
Lance (3) - bust
Fields (10) - disappointment
Mac (15) - disappointment

2022
Pickett (20) - disappointment

2023
Young (1) - benched, trending toward bust
Stroud (2) - starter
Richardson (4) - benched, trending toward bust

---------------------
So far 2024 looks like the best class of these. Williams, Daniels, Maye, Nix are starters or trending upward. Maye is probably still the biggest TBD of these but he's definitely trending up. Penix and McCarthy are injured but if they are starters too then this is a great class.

Proves for sure that a 1st round pick QB is not close to a sure thing

signbabybrady · Nov 1, 2024

Can you do this for LT too?

Pape · Nov 1, 2024

Jameis Winston should have been the target for us when 12 opted out...

Bit of coaching about ball security and he's a viable pass thrower... better option than Cam was tbh...

Tua... you wouldn't rate him a star? maybe he's not at that level because of injuries... but the guy can play... best qb out of alabama in a long while...

and based on his track record since getting to Detroit, Goff has become a star QB...

sb1 · Nov 1, 2024

signbabybrady said:
Can you do this for LT too?

Found this list for Tackles. I don't know as much about these guys so did some research for this list. Some guys have more snaps at LT than others and made a note of that. Disappointments are guys who are injury prone or didn't get a lot of snaps for whatever reason or turned into journeymen, busts are either out of the league or benched.

Year	No.	Round	Pick	Player	Name	Team
2019	1	1	11	11	Jonah Williams	Bengals	Mostly at RT
	2	1	22	22	Andre Dillard	Eagles	Disappointment
	3	1	23	23	Tytus Howard	Texans	Starter
	4	1	31	31	Kaleb McGary	Falcons	Mostly at RT
2020	1	1	4	4	Andrew Thomas	Giants	Starter
	2	1	10	10	Jedrick Wills	Browns	Starter
	3	1	11	11	Mekhi Becton	Jets	Disappointment
	4	1	13	13	Tristan Wirfs	Buccaneers	Star
	5	1	18	18	Austin Jackson	Dolphins	Mostly at RT/G
	6	1	29	29	Isaiah Wilson	Titans	Bust
2021	1	1	7	7	Penei Sewell	Lions	Both LT/RT. Star
	2	1	17	17	Alex Leatherwood	Raiders	Bust
	3	1	23	23	Christian Darrisaw	Vikings	Starter
2022	1	1	6	6	Ikem Ekwonu	Panthers	Starter
	2	1	7	7	Evan Neal	Giants	RT, disappointment
	3	1	9	9	Charles Cross	Seahawks	Starter
	4	1	19	19	Trevor Penning	Saints	Disappointment
	5	1	24	24	Tyler Smith	Cowboys	Moved to guard, star
2023	1	1	6	6	Paris Johnson	Cardinals	Starter
	2	1	10	10	Darnell Wright	Bears	Starter
	3	1	14	14	Broderick Jones	Steelers	Trending toward bust
	4	1	27	27	Anton Harrison	Jaguars	Starter
2024	1	1	5	5	Joe Alt	Chargers	Injured
	2	1	7	7	JC Latham	Titans	RT
	3	1	11	11	Olumuyiwa Fashanu	Jets	TBD
	4	1	14	14	Taliese Fuaga	Saints	Starter
	5	1	18	18	Amarius Mims	Bengals	RT, Starter
	6	1	25	25	Jordan Morgan	Packers	Switched to G
	7	1	29	29	Tyler Guyton	Cowboys	RT

sb1 · Nov 1, 2024

Pape said:
Jameis Winston should have been the target for us when 12 opted out...

Bit of coaching about ball security and he's a viable pass thrower... better option than Cam was tbh...

Tua... you wouldn't rate him a star? maybe he's not at that level because of injuries... but the guy can play... best qb out of alabama in a long while...

and based on his track record since getting to Detroit, Goff has become a star QB...

True re Tua. Same with Goff. Not really a star with the Rams but maybe he is becoming one. Ditto for Darnold I guess.

signbabybrady · Nov 1, 2024

sb1 said:
Found this list for Tackles. I don't know as much about these guys so did some research for this list. Some guys have more snaps at LT than others and made a note of that. Disappointments are guys who are injury prone or didn't get a lot of snaps for whatever reason or turned into journeymen, busts are either out of the league or benched.

Year No. Round Pick Player Name Team
2019
1
1
11
11
Jonah Williams Bengals Mostly at RT
2
1
22
22
Andre Dillard
Eagles
Disappointment
3
1
23
23
Tytus Howard
Texans
Starter
4
1
31
31
Kaleb McGary
Falcons
Mostly at RT
2020
1
1
4
4
Andrew Thomas
Giants
Starter
2
1
10
10
Jedrick Wills
Browns
Starter
3
1
11
11
Mekhi Becton
Jets
Disappointment
4
1
13
13
Tristan Wirfs
Buccaneers
Star
5
1
18
18
Austin Jackson
Dolphins
Mostly at RT/G
6
1
29
29
Isaiah Wilson
Titans
Bust
2021
1
1
7
7
Penei Sewell
Lions
Both LT/RT. Star
2
1
17
17
Alex Leatherwood
Raiders
Bust
3
1
23
23
Christian Darrisaw
Vikings
Starter
2022
1
1
6
6
Ikem Ekwonu
Panthers
Starter
2
1
7
7
Evan Neal
Giants
RT, disappointment
3
1
9
9
Charles Cross
Seahawks
Starter
4
1
19
19
Trevor Penning
Saints
Disappointment
5
1
24
24
Tyler Smith
Cowboys
Moved to guard, star
2023
1
1
6
6
Paris Johnson
Cardinals
Starter
2
1
10
10
Darnell Wright
Bears
Starter
3
1
14
14
Broderick Jones
Steelers
Trending toward bust
4
1
27
27
Anton Harrison
Jaguars
Starter
2024
1
1
5
5
Joe Alt
Chargers
Injured
2
1
7
7
JC Latham
Titans
RT
3
1
11
11
Olumuyiwa Fashanu
Jets
TBD
4
1
14
14
Taliese Fuaga
Saints
Starter
5
1
18
18
Amarius Mims
Bengals
RT, Starter
6
1
25
25
Jordan Morgan
Packers
Switched to G
7
1
29
29
Tyler Guyton
Cowboys
RT

So looks to be about 50/50

How about WRs?

sb1 · Nov 1, 2024

signbabybrady said:
So looks to be about 50/50

How about WRs?

Yeah that's about right. It's also tough cause they can change positions a lot so not surprising the bust rate is lower. I'll put up a WR chart and research that one.

Broderick Jones is surprising to me. Dominated in the national championship game and tbh has been terrible with Pitt so far.

One-If-By-Sea · Nov 1, 2024

Pape said:
Jameis Winston should have been the target for us when 12 opted out...

Bit of coaching about ball security and he's a viable pass thrower... better option than Cam was tbh...

Tua... you wouldn't rate him a star? maybe he's not at that level because of injuries... but the guy can play... best qb out of alabama in a long while...

and based on his track record since getting to Detroit, Goff has become a star QB...

sb1 said:
True re Tua. Same with Goff. Not really a star with the Rams but maybe he is becoming one. Ditto for Darnold I guess.

If you go by some success in the playoffs (which I think should be the standard) to progress from a Starter to a Star, Tua, Murray, and Herbert are Starters, and Goff is a Star.

Real fan 02 · Nov 1, 2024

sb1 said:
Bust -
Out of the league, or a pick that never came close to deserving their high selection. Probably better alternatives at their position. Definitely a failed draft pick.

Disappointment -
Not a total bust at least not yet. Might have made it through their rookie deal. Not necessarily a high 1st round pick. Injuries or other factors might have derailed his career.

2015
Winston (1) - disappointment
Mariota (2) - disappointment

2016
Goff (1) - starter
Wentz (2) - disappointment
Lynch (26) - bust

2017
Trubisky (2) - bust
Mahomes (10) - star
Watson (12) - disappointment

2018
Mayfield (1) - starter
Darnold (3) - starter
Allen (7) - star
Rosen (10) - bust
Lamar (32) - star

2019
Murray (1) - star
D. Jones (6) - disappointment
Haskins (15) - bust

2020
Burrow (1) - star
Tua (5) - starter
Herbert (6) - star
Love (26) - starter

2021
Lawrence (1) - starter
Z Wilson (2) - bust
Lance (3) - bust
Fields (10) - disappointment
Mac (15) - disappointment

2022
Pickett (20) - disappointment

2023
Young (1) - benched, trending toward bust
Stroud (2) - starter
Richardson (4) - benched, trending toward bust

---------------------
So far 2024 looks like the best class of these. Williams, Daniels, Maye, Nix are starters or trending upward. Maye is probably still the biggest TBD of these but he's definitely trending up. Penix and McCarthy are injured but if they are starters too then this is a great class.

Proves for sure that a 1st round pick QB is not close to a sure thing

Great stuff. I'd add CJ is a star, and Herbert is a starter/star.. as talented as he is he's been underachieving.

0818NePa · Nov 1, 2024

sb1 said:
Bust -
Out of the league, or a pick that never came close to deserving their high selection. Probably better alternatives at their position. Definitely a failed draft pick.

Disappointment -
Not a total bust at least not yet. Might have made it through their rookie deal. Not necessarily a high 1st round pick. Injuries or other factors might have derailed his career.

2015
Winston (1) - disappointment
Mariota (2) - disappointment

2016
Goff (1) - starter
Wentz (2) - disappointment
Lynch (26) - bust

2017
Trubisky (2) - bust
Mahomes (10) - star
Watson (12) - disappointment

2018
Mayfield (1) - starter
Darnold (3) - starter
Allen (7) - star
Rosen (10) - bust
Lamar (32) - star

2019
Murray (1) - star
D. Jones (6) - disappointment
Haskins (15) - bust

2020
Burrow (1) - star
Tua (5) - starter
Herbert (6) - star
Love (26) - starter

2021
Lawrence (1) - starter
Z Wilson (2) - bust
Lance (3) - bust
Fields (10) - disappointment
Mac (15) - disappointment

2022
Pickett (20) - disappointment

2023
Young (1) - benched, trending toward bust
Stroud (2) - starter
Richardson (4) - benched, trending toward bust

---------------------
So far 2024 looks like the best class of these. Williams, Daniels, Maye, Nix are starters or trending upward. Maye is probably still the biggest TBD of these but he's definitely trending up. Penix and McCarthy are injured but if they are starters too then this is a great class.

Proves for sure that a 1st round pick QB is not close to a sure thing

Herbert a star ? Really, I do not get why the general opinion on this guy is so favorable ...

Real fan 02 · Nov 1, 2024

Real fan 02 said:
Great stuff. I'd add CJ is a star, and Herbert is a starter/star.. as talented as he is he's been underachieving.

@sb1 @PatsFan2

Figured you guys would like this LOL.

sb1 · Nov 1, 2024

WR's. Looks like not all WR classes are equal.

Year	No.	Round	Pick	Player	Name	Team
2024	1	1	4	4	Marvin Harrison Jr	Cardinals	Starter
	2	1	6	6	Malik Nabers	Giants	Starter
	3	1	9	9	Rome Odunze	Bears	Starter
	4	1	23	23	Brian Thomas	Jaguars	Starter
	5	1	28	28	Xavier Worthy	Chiefs	Starter
	6	1	31	31	Ricky Pearsall	49ers	New starter, NFI most of season
	7	1	32	32	Xavier Legette	Panthers	Starter
2023	1	1	20	20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	Seahawks	Starter
	2	1	21	21	Quentin Johnston	Chargers	Starter
	3	1	22	22	Zay Flowers	Ravens	Starter, trending to star
	4	1	23	23	Jordan Addison	Vikings	Starter
2022	1	1	8	8	Drake London	Falcons	Starter
	2	1	10	10	Garrett Wilson	Jets	Star
	3	1	11	11	Chris Olave	Saints	Starter, trending to disappointment w/injuries
	4	1	12	12	Jameson Williams	Lions	Disappointment, legal issues
	5	1	16	16	Jahan Dotson	Commanders	Disappointment
	6	1	18	18	Treylon Burks	Titans	Disappointment. Also looks injury prone
2021	1	1	5	5	Ja'Marr Chase	Bengals	Star
	2	1	6	6	Jaylen Waddle	Dolphins	Starter
	3	1	10	10	DeVonta Smith	Eagles	Starter
	4	1	20	20	Kadarius Toney	Giants	Disappointment
	5	1	27	27	Rashod Bateman	Ravens	Starter
2020	1	1	12	12	Henry Ruggs	Raiders	Bust
	2	1	15	15	Jerry Jeudy	Broncos	Disappointment w/injuries
	3	1	17	17	CeeDee Lamb	Cowboys	Star
	4	1	21	21	Jalen Reagor	Eagles	Bust for where he was drafted
	5	1	22	22	Justin Jefferson	Vikings	Star
	6	1	25	25	Brandon Aiyuk	49ers	Star
2019	1	1	25	25	Marquise Brown	Ravens	Disappointment w/injuries. Out for season
	2	1	32	32	N'Keal Harry	Patriots

Ross12 · Nov 1, 2024

sb1 said:
Found this list for Tackles. I don't know as much about these guys so did some research for this list. Some guys have more snaps at LT than others and made a note of that. Disappointments are guys who are injury prone or didn't get a lot of snaps for whatever reason or turned into journeymen, busts are either out of the league or benched.

Year No. Round Pick Player Name Team
2019
1
1
11
11
Jonah Williams Bengals Mostly at RT
2
1
22
22
Andre Dillard
Eagles
Disappointment
3
1
23
23
Tytus Howard
Texans
Starter
4
1
31
31
Kaleb McGary
Falcons
Mostly at RT
2020
1
1
4
4
Andrew Thomas
Giants
Starter
2
1
10
10
Jedrick Wills
Browns
Starter
3
1
11
11
Mekhi Becton
Jets
Disappointment
4
1
13
13
Tristan Wirfs
Buccaneers
Star
5
1
18
18
Austin Jackson
Dolphins
Mostly at RT/G
6
1
29
29
Isaiah Wilson
Titans
Bust
2021
1
1
7
7
Penei Sewell
Lions
Both LT/RT. Star
2
1
17
17
Alex Leatherwood
Raiders
Bust
3
1
23
23
Christian Darrisaw
Vikings
Starter
2022
1
1
6
6
Ikem Ekwonu
Panthers
Starter
2
1
7
7
Evan Neal
Giants
RT, disappointment
3
1
9
9
Charles Cross
Seahawks
Starter
4
1
19
19
Trevor Penning
Saints
Disappointment
5
1
24
24
Tyler Smith
Cowboys
Moved to guard, star
2023
1
1
6
6
Paris Johnson
Cardinals
Starter
2
1
10
10
Darnell Wright
Bears
Starter
3
1
14
14
Broderick Jones
Steelers
Trending toward bust
4
1
27
27
Anton Harrison
Jaguars
Starter
2024
1
1
5
5
Joe Alt
Chargers
Injured
2
1
7
7
JC Latham
Titans
RT
3
1
11
11
Olumuyiwa Fashanu
Jets
TBD
4
1
14
14
Taliese Fuaga
Saints
Starter
5
1
18
18
Amarius Mims
Bengals
RT, Starter
6
1
25
25
Jordan Morgan
Packers
Switched to G
7
1
29
29
Tyler Guyton
Cowboys
RT

Just for fun, I took this info and sorted it by how the player turned out. I did not include the 2024 picks because it seems like it's too early to tell, though at least half of them have either moved to RT or G anyway so it'd only reinforce the point anyway.

Stars: picks #7 and #13
Starters: picks #4, #6, #6, #9, #10, #10, #23, #23, and #27
Moved to RT: picks #11 and #31
Moved to G: picks #18 and #24
Disappointments: picks #7, #11, #19 and #22
Busts: picks #14, #17 and #29

So, IMO, based on the data there are a lot more stars and starters in the top 10 picks vs. outside the top 10, but there were still several outside the top 10. And there were still a couple disappointments at #7 and #11, but no outright "busts" inside the top 10. Still, the fact that there are 4 guys who are "star" or "starter" status picked between #13 and #27 between 2019 and 2023 is encouraging.

Interesting data points. Don't think it actually impacts 2025 since it's a weak tackle class anyway.

upstater1 · Nov 1, 2024

sb1 said:
Found this list for Tackles. I don't know as much about these guys so did some research for this list. Some guys have more snaps at LT than others and made a note of that. Disappointments are guys who are injury prone or didn't get a lot of snaps for whatever reason or turned into journeymen, busts are either out of the league or benched.

Year No. Round Pick Player Name Team
2019
1
1
11
11
Jonah Williams Bengals Mostly at RT
2
1
22
22
Andre Dillard
Eagles
Disappointment
3
1
23
23
Tytus Howard
Texans
Starter
4
1
31
31
Kaleb McGary
Falcons
Mostly at RT
2020
1
1
4
4
Andrew Thomas
Giants
Starter
2
1
10
10
Jedrick Wills
Browns
Starter
3
1
11
11
Mekhi Becton
Jets
Disappointment
4
1
13
13
Tristan Wirfs
Buccaneers
Star
5
1
18
18
Austin Jackson
Dolphins
Mostly at RT/G
6
1
29
29
Isaiah Wilson
Titans
Bust
2021
1
1
7
7
Penei Sewell
Lions
Both LT/RT. Star
2
1
17
17
Alex Leatherwood
Raiders
Bust
3
1
23
23
Christian Darrisaw
Vikings
Starter
2022
1
1
6
6
Ikem Ekwonu
Panthers
Starter
2
1
7
7
Evan Neal
Giants
RT, disappointment
3
1
9
9
Charles Cross
Seahawks
Starter
4
1
19
19
Trevor Penning
Saints
Disappointment
5
1
24
24
Tyler Smith
Cowboys
Moved to guard, star
2023
1
1
6
6
Paris Johnson
Cardinals
Starter
2
1
10
10
Darnell Wright
Bears
Starter
3
1
14
14
Broderick Jones
Steelers
Trending toward bust
4
1
27
27
Anton Harrison
Jaguars
Starter
2024
1
1
5
5
Joe Alt
Chargers
Injured
2
1
7
7
JC Latham
Titans
RT
3
1
11
11
Olumuyiwa Fashanu
Jets
TBD
4
1
14
14
Taliese Fuaga
Saints
Starter
5
1
18
18
Amarius Mims
Bengals
RT, Starter
6
1
25
25
Jordan Morgan
Packers
Switched to G
7
1
29
29
Tyler Guyton
Cowboys
RT

Some of the starters listed are actually busts. For instance, Ekwonu. He is an absolute sieve and a huge problem for Carolina. I can name others.

This shows the very very very high failure rate for LTs. Do I need to utter the name Isaiah Wynn?

sb1 · Nov 1, 2024

upstater1 said:
Some of the starters listed are actually busts. For instance, Ekwonu. He is an absolute sieve and a huge problem for Carolina. I can name others.

This shows the very very very high failure rate for LTs. Do I need to utter the name Isaiah Wynn?

Yeah he is trending that way. Starting but TBD for how long.

upstater1 · Nov 1, 2024

0818NePa said:
Herbert a star ? Really, I do not get why the general opinion on this guy is so favorable ...

I think he's amazing. If we didn't have Maye, I'd trade 3 #1s for the guy instantly.

He's the kind of guy you win championships with. An absolute gamer. He has great control of the pocket, he has a good accurate arm, and most importantly, he keeps his eyes trained downfield, moves through progressions, and is absolutely fearless in the pocket.

I go back and forth between him and Burrows.

Burrows gets happy feet and jittery sometimes. He is not Mr. Cool, as he's portrayed. Herbert is the real Mr. Cool.

upstater1 · Nov 1, 2024

One-If-By-Sea said:
If you go by some success in the playoffs (which I think should be the standard) to progress from a Starter to a Star, Tua, Murray, and Herbert are Starters, and Goff is a Star.

It may be a very long time then where Maye is anything more than a starter, LOL!

I think we have to actually compliment players for their play.

Put it this way: would I rather have Goff or Herbert?

Herbert 100%

sb1 · Nov 1, 2024

Looking at the Raiders, it’s not hard to see why they have not been contenders for over two decades. Their drafting has been atrocious and not just Ruggs either. Dunno if any Raider fans drop by here but I’d be curious to get their perspective.

Still don’t know why Robert Gallery faceplanted like he did back in the day. IIRC he was considered a generational prospect on the OL. We signed him but he decided to retire for some reason.

PatsFan2 · Nov 1, 2024

upstater1 said:
It may be a very long time then where Maye is anything more than a starter, LOL!

I think we have to actually compliment players for their play.

Put it this way: would I rather have Goff or Herbert?

Herbert 100%

Herbert is Mahomes Byaaaach and he's also overrated. Goff is playing Great.

One-If-By-Sea · Nov 1, 2024

upstater1 said:
It may be a very long time then where Maye is anything more than a starter, LOL!

I think we have to actually compliment players for their play.

Put it this way: would I rather have Goff or Herbert?

Herbert 100%

Put it this way: Would you rather have Goff or Tua? Goff 100%. Would you rather have Goff or Murray? Goff 100%.

The Goff versus Herbert is tougher. Herbert is definitely outplaying Goff this year, but not by a lot. Last year, Goff versus Herbert was QB rating 98 versus 93, TD to Int was 30/12 to 20/7, total yards 4575 to 3134, and completion % 69% to 65%. Goff had better numbers over a 17 game season last year - I bet a lot of posters find that surprising - Goff gets a negative rap. I would probably pick Herbert too, but Herbert throws a lot of shorter passes which does not win games. Goff is a great QB.

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