Are We Really Ready At Defensive Back?

[signbabybrady]

Not saying high hopes/expectations for Gonzo aren't justified. Just saying it's not an established level of performance to bank on. Shut down is also a strong word for what he did last year. He gave up a good amount of catches/yards. He just very much looked the part of playing competitive coverage against great players. Very encouraging, but that exact performance last year was not shut down of CB1 level, IMO. Not as-is.

Jon Jones has been great. I guess I kind of figure this team is 2-3 years away from competing at a high level so my point with him more was on that timeline and I don't expect him to still be on the team or playing at a high level by then. Maybe, but he'll be 33/34 on that timeline.

I just think it's a stretch to call this a great/excellent unit because there isn't an established #1 CB, the #2 CB is aging and best served as a slot, and the #3 is a combination of guys cut by other teams as soon as last year (Wilson, Austin), late round picks (Bolen, Dial) and a severely undersized player (M Jones). At safety, I like their players but they don't have anyone I would call a "plus" option for defending the deep parts of the field.

IF Gonzo plays up to his potential and IF someone really emerges from the camp competition as a great outside CB and IF Jon Jones is re-signed and maintains his level of play and IF Dugger/Peppers iron out the details of their roles and how they manage the deep coverage parts of safety then I agree this could be a great unit for any contending team. I just think lots of ifs for that. Most likely, we'll be calling for some tweaks to it by the time we're able to contend IMO.

I can agree with the part about building for a few years from now and obviously in the NFL that's a long time and a decent amount of roster turnover will occur. I was really just thinking about this season.

I think optimism and pessimism can be an interesting thing. Where you see an unestablished CB1 and an aging CB2 I just see 2 players who have been good starting CB1s and I think based on what I've seen from them they both will be an excellent starting duo this year.

I'm also extremely high on Marcus although his getting dinged up again already so soon this year raises concerns over his health and durability I don't think one is too serious and he should be our starting slot week 1. After that the late round picks and Marco and Wade should be more than enough to round out the depth and maybe even compete for starter reps they mostly all have looked decent.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

Understanding that this is a rebuilding year, is it the craziest idea to trade Jonathan Jones? Seems like Bolden/Wilson/Austin are all somewhat encouraging to develop on the outside and Wade apparently looks good in the slot to go with Marcus Jones. Dial is another young CB on the team.

IDK, just throwing it out there.

 

[n1997y]

Six of the eleven players praised by the coaching staff are CBs. Five of them were singled out for mention by Covington.

The six are:
Gonzo
Wilson
Austin
Wade
Bolden
Hearns (mentioned by Pellegrino)


These 11 Patriots Have Stood Out To Defensive Coaches

 

[mgteich]

Six of the eleven players praised by the coaching staff are CBs. Five of them were singled out for mention by Covington.

The six are:
Gonzo
Wilson
Austin
Wade
Bolden
Hearns (mentioned by Pellegrino)


These 11 Patriots Have Stood Out To Defensive Coaches

This is good news from the coaches. It seems likely that the odd men out will be Dial, Hearns, and Bledsoe, with Wade, Austin, Bolden all making the 53. That gives us 7 corners, 3 safeties plus Schooler.
=====================
Repeating part of the initial post from May
MY TOP SEVEN FOR NOW
CB: Gonzo, Wilson (a 3-year starter who is an upgrade to Bryant)
NB: Jones, Jones
S: Dugger, Peppers, Hawkins

COMPETING FOR THREE ROSTER SPOTS (the backup outside corner is the only "key" position)
Austin
Bolden
Wade
Bledsoe
Hearn
Dial

 

[signbabybrady]

Understanding that this is a rebuilding year, is it the craziest idea to trade Jonathan Jones? Seems like Bolden/Wilson/Austin are all somewhat encouraging to develop on the outside and Wade apparently looks good in the slot to go with Marcus Jones. Dial is another young CB on the team.

IDK, just throwing it out there.

I have two thoughts on this:

First: On the surface and on an individual basis this sort of thing makes sense for a non-contender. But I highly question what the cumulative effects of those sorts of moves would make. If it makes Sense for Jonathan and Judon who's next Andrews, Wise, Bentley? Bottom line we're trying to build talent not get rid of it.

Second: I think Jonathan gets very much mislabeled/underappreciated around here as just a slot corner when he's been so much more. He's basically been our CB1 for a few years and he's one of the guys on the team who seems to have some flexibility to pitch in at FS too.

 

[captain stone]

This is good news from the coaches. It seems likely that the odd men out will be Dial, Hearns, and Bledsoe, with Wade, Austin, Bolden all making the 53. That gives us 7 corners, 3 safeties plus Schooler.
=====================
Repeating part of the initial post from May
MY TOP SEVEN FOR NOW
CB: Gonzo, Wilson (a 3-year starter who is an upgrade to Bryant)
NB: Jones, Jones
S: Dugger, Peppers, Hawkins

COMPETING FOR THREE ROSTER SPOTS (the backup outside corner is the only "key" position)
Austin
Bolden
Wade
Bledsoe
Hearn
Dial

Austin’s more likely than not on the 53.

My next two preferences are Wade & Dial, though I would bump either or both of them for a decent UFA signing, waiver claim or both.

 

[mgteich]

I have two thoughts on this:

First: On the surface and on an individual basis this sort of thing makes sense for a non-contender. But I highly question what the cumulative effects of those sorts of moves would make. If it makes Sense for Jonathan and Judon who's next Andrews, Wise, Bentley? Bottom line we're trying to build talent not get rid of it.

Second: I think Jonathan gets very much mislabeled/underappreciated around here as just a slot corner when he's been so much more. He's basically been our CB1 for a few years and he's one of the guys on the team who seems to have some flexibility to pitch in at FS too.

I agree.

I think that we have 2 rather different tracks for the Offense and Defense.

DEFENSE
The Defense is already top 5-10, as long as we continue to extend and replace folks at approximately the same level. Obviously, it could be better with fewer injuries. This plan takes serious extensions and continuing draft choices (e.g. Gonzo and White) at least one top 4 draft choice each year. This will take money and draft choices, but the plan is a straightforward one. There is no rebuilding on Defense. IMO, we are on the right track with all the extensions. If players are agreeable, we should continue to extend the rest: Judon, Wise and Jon Jones. Other than a couple of minor signings and a draft choice, we would be all set for 2024 AND 2025. [In 2025, we will need a FS, a DL, and a LB or two; Hawkins, Watts Uche and McMillan are the incumbents. This is easily doable.

NORMAL OFFENSE SITUATION FOR RB AND TE
We are in a normal mode at RB and TE, having signed Gibson, extended Stevenson, and extended Henry. There will be the continuing need for backups and replacements. But, for now, we are OK for 2024 AND 2025.
=======================================================
THE REBUILD IS EXTENSIVE BUT REALLY LIMITED TO THREE POSITIONS
It seems weird but we are a deep playoff team at all but three positions. Of course, this can be the difference between a team with 4 losses and a team with 4 wins.

We have taken major steps toward the rebuild, limited by the fact that not that many free agents were interested in a 4-win team, plus the
huge increase in cap allowed teams to keep many of their free agents that they normally wouldn't be able to keep. We will have plenty of cap money in 2025 and 2026 to continue the rebuild.

SOME OF THE STEPS TAKEN
1) Drafting of Maye and Milton
2) Extensions of Onwenu, Henry, Bourne, Anderson and Stevenson
3) Signing of Gibson
4) Drafting of Polk, Baker, Wallace and Robinson
5) Interim one-year transition signings of Brissett, Hooper, Okorafor, Osborne, Leverett
=========
Folks are frustrated. This is to be expected in the first year of a new regime, one coming back for having one of the very worst Offense in the NFL. It would be a step forward to have the 25th best Offense in 2024. Obviously, anything better than 25 would be a major step forward. IMO, being average (16th) in 2025 would make us a playoff contender.






SOME STEPS HAVE INCLUDED

 

[n1997y]

I agree.

I think that we have 2 rather different tracks for the Offense and Defense.

DEFENSE
The Defense is already top 5-10, as long as we continue to extend and replace folks at approximately the same level. Obviously, it could be better with fewer injuries. This plan takes serious extensions and continuing draft choices (e.g. Gonzo and White) at least one top 4 draft choice each year. This will take money and draft choices, but the plan is a straightforward one. There is no rebuilding on Defense. IMO, we are on the right track with all the extensions. If players are agreeable, we should continue to extend the rest: Judon, Wise and Jon Jones. Other than a couple of minor signings and a draft choice, we would be all set for 2024 AND 2025. [In 2025, we will need a FS, a DL, and a LB or two; Hawkins, Watts Uche and McMillan are the incumbents. This is easily doable.

NORMAL OFFENSE SITUATION FOR RB AND TE
We are in a normal mode at RB and TE, having signed Gibson, extended Stevenson, and extended Henry. There will be the continuing need for backups and replacements. But, for now, we are OK for 2024 AND 2025.
=======================================================
THE REBUILD IS EXTENSIVE BUT REALLY LIMITED TO THREE POSITIONS
It seems weird but we are a deep playoff team at all but three positions. Of course, this can be the difference between a team with 4 losses and a team with 4 wins.

We have taken major steps toward the rebuild, limited by the fact that not that many free agents were interested in a 4-win team, plus the
huge increase in cap allowed teams to keep many of their free agents that they normally wouldn't be able to keep. We will have plenty of cap money in 2025 and 2026 to continue the rebuild.

SOME OF THE STEPS TAKEN
1) Drafting of Maye and Milton
2) Extensions of Onwenu, Henry, Bourne, Anderson and Stevenson
3) Signing of Gibson
4) Drafting of Polk, Baker, Wallace and Robinson
5) Interim one-year transition signings of Brissett, Hooper, Okorafor, Osborne, Leverett
=========
Folks are frustrated. This is to be expected in the first year of a new regime, one coming back for having one of the very worst Offense in the NFL. It would be a step forward to have the 25th best Offense in 2024. Obviously, anything better than 25 would be a major step forward. IMO, being average (16th) in 2025 would make us a playoff contender.






SOME STEPS HAVE INCLUDED

I generally agree. I’d like more detail about the three positions you see as weak.

On D there’s a lot of agreement that the defense is good, certainly among the better and maybe among the best in the league. There is also good depth and a good development pipeline with players such as Ximines and Pharms ready to compete with the established roster. It’s tough to lose a guy like Barmore but encouraging that for now it seems there are replacements ready to step up.

On the O I’m thinking there is one key weakness, another positional grouping that is untested and thus unknown, and a group that is raw but may have the ingredients to become a strength.

The key weakness is the OL of course. I’m not as totally pessimistic about the line as many on here because I think that coaching and cohesion and execution are more significant than pure talent. My poster child is Trent Brown. When Scar was coaching him he was dominant, one of if not the best LT in the NFL. Without Scar and after he got paid he was sloppy, out of shape, unfocused, and not motivated, and his performance was mediocre or worse. I look at the dynasty years and I’m not sure that the linemen would’ve been as successful on other teams, with their athletic talents but without Scar.

So I look at the OL players we have, with a new coaching staff, and it seems to me that they’re all still trying to figure out how to work together and get the best performance out of what we have. It may turn out that they figure it out and the ingredients we have are good enough to perform better than we expect. It may turn out that we are missing key ingredients and it’s as bad as we fear. For now we can’t tell. The good news is that the coaches definitely recognize OL as the number one concern.

I see WR as a position with a lot of talented, and hungry young players, untested and unknown but just as possibly a strength as a weakness. In my view more likely a strength, as we have more candidates than roster slots so it’s competitive and those who make the roster will have to earn their slot by showing performance in the next couple of weeks. Let the cream rise. The other big question in this area is AVP and how his play calling turns out. Does he use the entire roster? And do the QBs scan the entire field? If both those answers are “yes” I’m expecting we won’t have any one receiver putting up huge numbers but we will have an offense that keeps moving the chains and scoring points.

I see QB as a group that is a work in progress. I think Brissett is the perfect bridge to the new future, and I expect him to outperform expectations in that role, especially with the untested WRs. It seems the coaching staff and front office have chosen to take time to develop and polish Drake Maye instead of throwing him into the fire immediately. I think that’s the right call, especially given the uncertainty about the OL. Maye and Milton both seem like they could develop into very good QBs, but I think that’s much more likely if they’re playing behind Brissett instead of playing behind a shaky OL. Final thought on QB, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Zappe signed to the PS as Brissett’s backup, at least until the OL situation shakes out a bit more.

If all goes well I think this team could be a big surprise this year. Realistically all will not go well, but even if some things go well and other thing do not I’m thinking eight wins, and maybe if enough goes well one or two more to sneak into the playoffs. Optimistic but possible.