Fear of Maye getting hurt is a dumb reason to not give him snaps

[mike_usagisan]

So if Drake plays now and sucks, are we going to say, "Well, he sucks. Let's draft a new QB in the 2025 draft."?

Congratulations. You're now advocating that we do business like the Jets.

Let the coaching staff get him ready and play him when they think he's ready.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

The fact that Mahomes, Brady etc. sat for their first year doesn't mean it helped them. There is no way of knowing that.

It doesn’t mean it wasn’t important to their subsequent success, either. The team needs to look at the player and make the best decision for him. If the Patriots had drafted Peyton Manning, the calculus would be different. He was perhaps the most NFL ready QB pick in NFL history.

Plenty of QB's have succeeded as first year starters.

Sure, and many of them played four years in college. How many had good OLs? How many were ahead of Maye in development? How many landed on teams with established coaches and schemes?

For entertainment value alone Maye should start.

Maye is too critical of an investment to risk without considering other factors.

And the team needs to get a read on Maye as soon as possible. If he sits this year while the team has another terrible season, it would be a disaster to not take another QB at the top of next year's draft if Maye ends up eventually being a bust.

You think that putting Maye out there before he’s had time to correct his throwing motion with a substandard OL during a rebuild year with a new staff will give the definitive read on him? You think the team would bail on him and pick another QB in the top 10 if he struggles on a struggling offense? You think he’d be tagged as a bust? Doubt.

I want him to see him play. But I don’t want to see him play if the risk/benefit analysis is unfavorable. I do think he plays this year, maybe second half.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

Need the best Tackle in the draft next year.

I’ve heard the crop isn’t as promising and that the top 3 are hard to distinguish. Still, can’t be worse than what we’ve got.

 

[1960Pats]

1 - Cincinnati should be a Loss, but Burrow has had problems and the beginning of a football season is unpredictable. Win
2 - Seattle has a new HC and they are traveling across the country to play NE which is not easy. Win
3 - NYJ are cursed. I believe that they will sweep NE in 2024, but never underestimate a curse. Win-Win
4 - Miami has Tua who is still a fumble prone INT thrower with tons of pressure on him to win something. Win-Loss
5 - Houston CJ Stroud could struggle in year 2? Brady did. The great Corky Mac did. So many times the next new shiny HOF QB crashes back to earth after his rookie season. Defensive staffs have had all offseason to break down your rookie season film. Some DC will figure you out. Win
6 - Jacksonville Trevor Lawrence has been unimpressive. Good enough to keep, but not bad enough to get rid of. Loss (Mac in relief of Trevor)
7 - Tennessee with a new HC. Win
8 - Chicago with a rookie QB. A franchise who has been as terrible as the Jets at drafting QBs. Win
9 - Arizona does not impress me at all. Win
10 - LAC Herbert did something to his plantar fascia. Harbaugh takes over a team who had a fire sale shipping their proven players away. Win
11 - Buffalo not sold on McDermott and the Bills have lost a lot of familiar faces on both sides of the ball. Loss-Loss

4 - 8 wins

Throw in a 2-1 record in the other games and I see 12-5 Pats with a first round home playoff game.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Great way to go out of business -- or in the Patriots case to hemorrhage fans used to a high level of entertainment. I'm sure as hell not going to waste my time watching a suck-*ss team again this year. The NFL is an entertainment business.

Winning is the entertainment, acting like the
Jets is the best way to ensure that you will never win.the Patriots went from ne of the lowest valued franchise in football to the 4th highest valued sports franchise in the world because of their dynasty, not because they were flashy.

 

[Triumph]

Throw in a 2-1 record in the other games and I see 12-5 Pats with a first round home playoff game.

Kraft bought the copyright for 17 - 0 and 20 - 0.

 

[KCSVEN]

yes, we do have the answer to the question you ask, and the answer is Brissett.

Simple fact of the matter is you are confusing potential with preparedness.

Maye has much more potential than Brissett. No one is saying he doesn't.

The NFL is littered with rookie quarterbacks on bad teams that flamed out. Whether it was them not being good. Them getting injured. The team never improving around them. Whatever the reason...

Its one of the oldest, most often repeated stories in the league.

There is NO chance at all that Jacoby is better than Maye TODAY, if the Patriots think that they chose the wrong coaches and GM. Thye can't be that incompetent to actually think that.

People need to stop with rookies that flame out, the analysis was already done by someone; it is not true that playing someone like Maye on a bad team is going to have a negative result. It was actually proven the opposite.
It's been proven by actual analysis of the data so not sure why people still think it is a thing.

People still think you got to buy index funds because you can't "beat the market" when in 5 minutes I can teach anyone to beat the market EVERY SINGLE YEAR.
You need to go with the data and analysis and not randomly chosen examples.
The older the stories the more they get ingrained and the more you should actually question and analyze.

 

[Pape]

There is NO chance at all that Jacoby is better than Maye TODAY, if the Patriots think that they chose the wrong coaches and GM. Thye can't be that incompetent to actually think that.

People need to stop with rookies that flame out, the analysis was already done by someone; it is not true that playing someone like Maye on a bad team is going to have a negative result. It was actually proven the opposite.
It's been proven by actual analysis of the data so not sure why people still think it is a thing.

People still think you got to buy index funds because you can't "beat the market" when in 5 minutes I can teach anyone to beat the market EVERY SINGLE YEAR.
You need to go with the data and analysis and not randomly chosen examples.
The older the stories the more they get ingrained and the more you should actually question and analyze.

Didn't say better. Said more prepared. There is a difference.

So rookies don't flame out? That ridiculous.

Zach Wilson, Mitch trubisky, josh Rosen will all be happy to hear that. And there are a dozen other guys that can be added to that list. it's a rare rookie that steps in and elevates their team around them. What on earth have you seen or heard about Drake Maye that puts him in that category? Please share, because I have completely missed it.

So the empirical evidence says just the opposite. I don't care what "someone else proved". Playing those guys on bad teams didn't get them "much needed reps" it got them benched and sent packing.

Until they prove otherwise, we have a bad team. Period.

So I am going hope the Patriots practice patience with Maye, giving him every chance to succeed in the long term. If that means sitting him, so be it. Don't know what more I can say on the matter.

 

[KCSVEN]

So rookies don't flame out? That ridiculous.

Never said that, I said we know Maye would be better off starting based on the historical detailed analysis that has been done. The facts rookies flame has no evidence to suggest playing them causes them to flame out.

 

[Jim Beankie]

That's not the question. Who is a better QB today? We already have this answer.

We have no idea who the better QB is today. For all we know, he could be Matt Ryan, Stroud, Darnold or Lance or worse or better. The most important part is the stuff we haven't been able to see in the context of a regular season NFL game, and that's what's upstairs. The coaches will have an idea in practice, so it's all on them at this point.

Last year, he had some great moments, but that tape is littered with guys on D who make players in the 4th quarter of the last preseason game look like All Pros. Really looking forward to seeing him play on Thu.

 

[Pape]

Never said that, I said we know Maye would be better off starting based on the historical detailed analysis that has been done. The facts rookies flame has no evidence to suggest playing them causes them to flame out.

based on the historical detailed analysis...

based on the historical detailed analysis some other guy said, yes they do flame out when put in bad positions.

Oh my a quandary... Dueling experts saying the exact opposite. what ever shall do we do?

Lucky for you I know exactly what we will do... unless Brisket gets injured in the preseason, we will watch Drake Maye sit on the bench in favor of Brisket as the interim starter.

 

[KCSVEN]

based on the historical detailed analysis...

based on the historical detailed analysis some other guy said, yes they do flame out when put in bad positions.

Oh my a quandary... Dueling experts saying the exact opposite. what ever shall do we do?

Lucky for you I know exactly what we will do... unless Brisket gets injured in the preseason, we will watch Drake Maye sit on the bench in favor of Brisket as the interim starter.

Sorry, I did not see you post the analytics on that they flame out by starting them too early? Do you have a link to that? I couldn't find it in my initial research on the subject. I found opinion and, like you did, just listing QB's that failed but nothing that was an actual statistical analysis other than showing it doesn't happen.
But will gladly review that research and see how it was done and if it relates to Mayes situation. Look forward to reading it, thanks.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

There is NO chance at all that Jacoby is better than Maye TODAY, if the Patriots think that they chose the wrong coaches and GM. Thye can't be that incompetent to actually think that.

Tom Brady is the greatest QB of all time, right? BB is arguably the greatest coach of all time. Why wasn't Brady starting over Bledsoe? Granted, Jacoby isn't in the same league as Bledsoe, but Maye isn't in the same league as TB12 either... Did BB make a big mistake?

 

[KCSVEN]

Tom Brady is the QB of all time, right? BB is arguably the greatest coach of all time. Why wasn't Brady starting over Bledsoe? Granted, Jacoby isn't in the same league as Bledsoe, but Maye isn't in the same league as TB12 either... Did BB make a big mistake?

What? Brady was a 6th round pick, analytically and the evidence says odds are best to sit him, nothing to do with Drake Maye.
As the same data showed, you only sit a guy like Maye if you have Aaron Rodgers, or Joe Montana or a great player to sit behind.

BB, like he did with Mac Jones, actually followed the data and correctly did the right thing BOTH times.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Since he was the #3 overall pick, he should be playing. A journeyman QB with an 18-30 record is not an excuse to sit him. That is a red flag if he can't beat out Brissett. And if Maye turns out to be a Zach Wilson-Trey Lance level bust, Mayo won't last after year 2.

 

[Pape]

Sorry, I did not see you post the analytics on that they flame out by starting them too early? Do you have a link to that? I couldn't find it in my initial research on the subject. I found opinion and, like you did, just listing QB's that failed but nothing that was an actual statistical analysis other than showing it doesn't happen.
But will gladly review that research and see how it was done and if it relates to Mayes situation. Look forward to reading it, thanks.

what kind of analytics are you looking for?

zach wilson - year 1 starter, benched, traded
mac jones - year 1 starter, benched, traded
josh rosen - - year 1 starter, benched, traded
mitch trubisky - year 1 starter, benched, traded
kenny pickett - year 1 starter, benched, traded
trey lance - year 1 starter, benched, traded
justin fields - year 1 starter, benched, traded
sam darnold - year 1 starter, benched, traded
carson wentz - year 1 starter, benched, traded
paxton lynch - lol, denver
marcus mariotta - year 1 starter, benched, traded
jameis winston - year 1 starter, benched, traded
blake bortles - year 1 starter, benched, traded
johnny manziel - year 1 starter, benched, traded
tedy bridgewater - - year 1 starter, benched, traded

hows that? thats the original 3 i mentioned, + a dozen more guys. is that analytical enough?

and if its not "analytical enough", how about just using common sense?

 

[KCSVEN]

what kind of analytics are you looking for?

zach wilson - year 1 starter, benched, traded
mac jones - year 1 starter, benched, traded
josh rosen - - year 1 starter, benched, traded
mitch trubisky - year 1 starter, benched, traded
kenny pickett - year 1 starter, benched, traded
trey lance - year 1 starter, benched, traded
justin fields - year 1 starter, benched, traded
sam darnold - year 1 starter, benched, traded
carson wentz - year 1 starter, benched, traded
paxton lynch - lol, denver
marcus mariotta - year 1 starter, benched, traded
jameis winston - year 1 starter, benched, traded
blake bortles - year 1 starter, benched, traded
johnny manziel - year 1 starter, benched, traded
tedy bridgewater - - year 1 starter, benched, traded

hows that? thats the original 3 i mentioned, + a dozen more guys. is that analytical enough?

and if its not "analytical enough", how about just using common sense?

That's absolutely garbage information, you can decide nothing by this, you need analytics like the excerpt from one statistical analysis below Or the better one I previously posted. I assumed since you were arguing with me you had actually spent the many hours researching like I did and then coming to a conclusion, but it appears you concluded something with what you think is "common sense" and then searched out info to solely back up your position. Sorry, I don't work that way, I gather info, and then make a conclusion and could care less what the conclusion is because I don't start with preconceived notions.
Believe me, I tried looking for evidence to dispute the multiple detailed statistical analyses that concluded what I am now saying but could not find any and apparently you can't either. Research never ends so if you find something worthwhile, I'll gladly take a look at it.

It does seem notable, though, that the rookies afforded the opportunity to start right away have generally out-performed those who had to wait a bit but still stepped into the lineup in the first half of their rookie season, who in turn out-performed those who had to wait until the second half of the year before their team gave them a shot

 

[Pape]

That's absolutely garbage information, you can decide nothing by this, you need analytics like the excerpt from one statistical analysis below Or the better one I previously posted. I assumed since you were arguing with me you had actually spent the many hours researching like I did and then coming to a conclusion, but it appears you concluded something with what you think is "common sense" and then searched out info to solely back up your position. Sorry, I don't work that way, I gather info, and then make a conclusion and could care less what the conclusion is because I don't start with preconceived notions.
Believe me, I tried looking for evidence to dispute the multiple detailed statistical analyses that concluded what I am now saying but could not find any and apparently you can't either. Research never ends so if you find something worthwhile, I'll gladly take a look at it.

It does seem notable, though, that the rookies afforded the opportunity to start right away have generally out-performed those who had to wait a bit but still stepped into the lineup in the first half of their rookie season, who in turn out-performed those who had to wait until the second half of the year before their team gave them a shot

"generally" out performed ... doesn't sound very analytical to me... sounds suspiciously like a report that was written by Exponent

i haven't seen your exhaustive analytical study KC

only thing i have seen is you saying someone else made the argument

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I posted this a few times I've not sure if @KCSVEN is talking about this. I dont expect Maye to start at this point but every NEP fan should hope he's the starter by W6-8 based on history
.....


This isn't so much my opinion as opposed to a historical pov on highly drafted QB's and who they have in front of them.

I posted this before but will do so again. Again I'm simply looking at what history tells us.

From 94-23 there were 79 QBs taken in the 1st round. Only 19 threw under 100 passes their rookie year. That list (no order) - Lance, Quinn, Pennington, Grossman, Druckenmiller, Tebow, Losman, Campbell, Russell, Locker, Manziel, Lynch.

Then you have Mahomes.
Mahomes was more than ready his rookie year, looking back. He knew the playbook up & down according to coaches. Players he was up against saw what he could do right away. KC was too cautious bc they had Smith. Who, in fairness, was playing at a very high level. That said it's more than obvious Mahomes was ready to go out the gate.
Palmer behind Kitna. Culpepper behind Cunningham/George. Manning behind Warner. Rivers/Brees. McNair behind Chandler. Love and AR. AR and Favre.

Some of those you understand why they didn't play right away. The other list isn't one you want to be on.

There aren't many good examples you can point to when it comes to a rookie qb, eventually being good but he doesn’t beat out a mediocre starter.

Unique cases/late bloomers
Romo, Young, Warner, Schaub

Favre sat behind Miller who was decent at the time. McNair is a good example. He sat behind Chandler but there aren't many good QBs that couldn't beat out a mediocre QB.

I'm not pounding the table for Maye to start no matter what. Thats as dumb as just wanting him to sit for the sake of it. Those aren't really good sides to be on imo, either one. Im just saying it's not a good sign if he doesn't beat out JB by W6-8. Not fire alarm time but reason to be concerned.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

You are entitled to your opinion. History says that he was a two time super champ. The number of TDs reflects the era he played.

Plunkett had a great arm and was a very effective QB once he got out of NE. Two SB's are 2 SB's, and he was not carried by the team.