We Have A Top 10 Defense With Lots Of TC Decisions To Make

[mgteich]

We have a top 10 Defense, with a solid set of starters (all except CB2). We do have lots of decisions to make regarding backups. Of course, any of these positions could be filled by a free agent. I suspect that we will pick up one or two on waivers.

I count 8 "openings"

DEFENSIVE LINE - Pick 2 from
Watts, Ekuale, Hill, Pharms, Roberts

OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS - Pick 2 from
Uche, Ximines, McMillan, Elliss

SECONDARY - pick 4 from
Austin, Wilson, Wade, Bolden, Bledsoe, Hearn

 

[Wozzy]

Something like this...

DEFENSE (25)
DT (4) – Christian Barmore, Davon Godchaux, Daniel Ekuale, Trysten Hill, Sam Roberts (PS),
DE (2) – Keion White, Deatrich Wise, William Bradley-King (PS),
SLB (2) – Matthew Judon, Anfernee Jennings,
MLB (3) – Ja’Whaun Bentley, Jahlani Tavai, Josh Uche, Jett Bush (PS),
WLB (2) – Marte Mapu, Sione Takitaki, Christian Elliss, Joe Giles-Harris (PS),
SS (4) – Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, Brenden Schooler, Jaylinn Hawkins, Josh Bledsoe, Dell Pettus (PS),
FS (1) – Shaun Wade,
BIG CB (5) – Christian Gonzalez, Marco Wilson, Isaiah Bolden, Marcellas Dial, Azizi Hearn, Alex Austin (PS),
SLOT CB (2) – Jonathan Jones, Marcus Jones, Kaleb Ford-Dement (PS),

 

[mgteich]

Something like this...

DEFENSE (25)
DT (4) – Christian Barmore, Davon Godchaux, Daniel Ekuale, Trysten Hill, Sam Roberts (PS),
DE (2) – Keion White, Deatrich Wise, William Bradley-King (PS),
SLB (2) – Matthew Judon, Anfernee Jennings,
MLB (3) – Ja’Whaun Bentley, Jahlani Tavai, Josh Uche, Jett Bush (PS),
WLB (2) – Marte Mapu, Sione Takitaki, Christian Elliss, Joe Giles-Harris (PS),
SS (4) – Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, Brenden Schooler, Jaylinn Hawkins, Josh Bledsoe, Dell Pettus (PS),
FS (1) – Shaun Wade,
BIG CB (5) – Christian Gonzalez, Marco Wilson, Isaiah Bolden, Marcellas Dial, Azizi Hearn, Alex Austin (PS),
SLOT CB (2) – Jonathan Jones, Marcus Jones, Kaleb Ford-Dement (PS),

The only major disagreement have with your roster is with regard to corners. There is zero need for 7 corners, especially since Wade is available. I am OK with six, though some may want 5 plus Wade. I would think that only 4 will usually be active. 3 inactives at one position is a lot.

My preference is for us to sign a free agent in the secondary and cut Dial, Hearn and Austin. If I have to pick one, that one would be Austin.

That frees up one roster spot which I would use on an OLB or ST/LB like Ellis.

 

[Wozzy]

The only major disagreement have with your roster is with regard to corners. There is zero need for 7 corners, especially since Wade is available. I am OK with six, though some may want 5 plus Wade. I would think that only 4 will usually be active. 3 inactives at one position is a lot.

My preference is for us to sign a free agent in the secondary and cut Dial, Hearn and Austin. If I have to pick one, that one would be Austin.

That frees up one roster spot which I would use on an OLB or ST/LB like Ellis.

Yeah they probably won’t keep that many corners, Bolden might get lumped in as a kick returner. I doubt they cut Dial as they used a draft pick on him, he would have to be pretty terrible. Hearn could slide onto the practice squad pretty easily. I had Ellis making it initially so I could see that as well.

 

[mgteich]

Yeah they probably won’t keep that many corners, Bolden might get lumped in as a kick returner. I doubt they cut Dial as they used a draft pick on him, he would have to be pretty terrible. Hearn could slide onto the practice squad pretty easily. I had Ellis making it initially so I could see that as well.

hmmm

A 6th rounder often doesn't make our 53. I would guess that he makes it less than 50% of the time. In any case, Dial would easily make the Practice Squad. If not, it is no great loss.

There is room for all four of Wade, Bolden, Austin and Wilson (cutting Dial, Hearn and Bledsoe) with a CB being the 4th safety.

I agree with Bolden making the 53; as you say, he's a kick returner as well as a prospect at CB.
===========
MY BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
our top 3 CB's are coming back from the IR.
The 4 backups (including a backup FS) all are question marks.
We are better than in 2023, but perhaps not by as much as folks think.

 

[PWRxWLF]

Why the hate for Austin? He has size, youth and strength on his side. All he did last season was come in and admirably do his job. He didn’t look anywhere out of place. Also, @Wozzy . Why do you have Uche penciled in at MLB? Minor quabble, just curious why the designation. We have to remember that the Defense lost its biggest asset this offseason and its name was Bill Belichick. Though the talent should be there with Judon and Gonzo returning, losing BB is going to be a bigger blow to the D than I think most realize. I don’t envy Covington one bit.

 

[Wozzy]

hmmm

A 6th rounder often doesn't make our 53. I would guess that he makes it less than 50% of the time. In any case, Dial would easily make the Practice Squad. If not, it is no great loss.

There is room for all four of Wade, Bolden, Austin and Wilson (cutting Dial, Hearn and Bledsoe) with a CB being the 4th safety.

I agree with Bolden making the 53; as you say, he's a kick returner as well as a prospect at CB.
===========
MY BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
our top 3 CB's are coming back from the IR.
The 4 backups (including a backup FS) all are question marks.
We are better than in 2023, but perhaps not by as much as folks think.

That’s fair, Dial is by no means a lock.

The only locks I see are Gonzo/Wilson starting outside, Jon Jones in the slot or at free safety and Marcus Jones as both a slot CB and return man. Shaun Wade will likely man the free safety spot if Jon doesn’t, Bolden and Dial are highly probable.

I get that everyone likes the Austin feel good story but I think he will exposed in time and with more reps. I also get that I am alone in my Hearn appreciation and he probably won’t make the 53.

 

[Wozzy]

Why the hate for Austin? He has size, youth and strength on his side. All he did last season was come in and admirably do his job. He didn’t look anywhere out of place. Also, @Wozzy . Why do you have Uche penciled in at MLB? Minor quabble, just curious why the designation. We have to remember that the Defense lost its biggest asset this offseason and its name was Bill Belichick. Though the talent should be there with Judon and Gonzo returning, losing BB is going to be a bigger blow to the D than I think most realize. I don’t envy Covington one bit.

I don’t hate Austin, he was what he was last year… a guy on waivers who filled in when there were a plethora of injuries. I don’t think that’s sustainable going forward and a superior athlete in Marco Wilson or Jon Jones had better be starting opposite Gonzalez.

I only have Uche penciled in as a middle LB due to size. He’s not big enough to be a outside LB, he’s not small or good enough on running downs to play weakside LB. He’s a situational pass rusher the size of a middle LB, so he gets lumped in there.

Sure, BB is gone but all his players and coaches are still there. The disguise in Bill’s defenses usually occurred in the defensive backfield and we still have a Belichick back there coaching, plus two guys in Duggar and Peppers who understand football. The D shouldn’t take too much of a dip.

 

[p8ryts]

We have a top 10 Defense, with a solid set of starters (all except CB2). We do have lots of decisions to make regarding backups. Of course, any of these positions could be filled by a free agent. I suspect that we will pick up one or two on waivers.

I count 8 "openings"

DEFENSIVE LINE - Pick 2 from
Watts, Ekuale, Hill, Pharms, Roberts

OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS - Pick 2 from
Uche, Ximines, McMillan, Elliss

SECONDARY - pick 4 from
Austin, Wilson, Wade, Bolden, Bledsoe, Hearn

Don't know enough about most of these guys. Pharms has improved each year and was playing more at the end of the year. I say he sticks. Roberts never developed. I thought he showed real ability when he first arrived, but he has never developed, it's time for him to move on.
I think Uche is overrated, but he just signed a new contract so he will stay. I liked McMillan, but he will get hurt.
Austin is a keeper. Bolden showed promise but it was in early days. I liked Bledsoe as a rookie, but I'm getting ready to put him in the basket with Roberts. He has played but has never shone out.

Anyway, it's good to be getting to the fun stuff approaching TC.

 

[Real fan 02]

Something like this...

DEFENSE (25)
DT (4) – Christian Barmore, Davon Godchaux, Daniel Ekuale, Trysten Hill, Sam Roberts (PS),
DE (2) – Keion White, Deatrich Wise, William Bradley-King (PS),
SLB (2) – Matthew Judon, Anfernee Jennings,
MLB (3) – Ja’Whaun Bentley, Jahlani Tavai, Josh Uche, Jett Bush (PS),
WLB (2) – Marte Mapu, Sione Takitaki, Christian Elliss, Joe Giles-Harris (PS),
SS (4) – Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, Brenden Schooler, Jaylinn Hawkins, Josh Bledsoe, Dell Pettus (PS),
FS (1) – Shaun Wade,
BIG CB (5) – Christian Gonzalez, Marco Wilson, Isaiah Bolden, Marcellas Dial, Azizi Hearn, Alex Austin (PS),
SLOT CB (2) – Jonathan Jones, Marcus Jones, Kaleb Ford-Dement (PS),

 

[rochrist]

The only major disagreement have with your roster is with regard to corners. There is zero need for 7 corners, especially since Wade is available. I am OK with six, though some may want 5 plus Wade. I would think that only 4 will usually be active. 3 inactives at one position is a lot.

My preference is for us to sign a free agent in the secondary and cut Dial, Hearn and Austin. If I have to pick one, that one would be Austin.

That frees up one roster spot which I would use on an OLB or ST/LB like Ellis.

Can we at least SEE Dial before you dump him?

 

[mgteich]

Can we at least SEE Dial before you dump him?

The coaches will see him.

It is NOT a metter of dumping Dial. It is a matter of him showing that he is better than the other DB's that he is competing with for a roster spot. Basically, he needs to show that he is worth a year of development while inactive waiting for two injuries.

 

[rochrist]

The coaches will see him.

It is NOT a metter of dumping Dial. It is a matter of him showing that he is better than the other DB's that he is competing with for a roster spot. Basically, he needs to show that he is worth a year of development while inactive waiting for two injuries.

That's fine. That's what I want, him to compete for a roster spot. I was objecting to writing him off before a single day of training camp which you seemed to be doing.

 

[mgteich]

That's fine. That's what I want, him to compete for a roster spot. I was objecting to writing him off before a single day of training camp which you seemed to be doing.

fair enough

For the record, my expectation is always that inexpensive players who have been on the squad for us will not be beaten out by a 6th rounder. That's just where I start when making WAG's about the 53-man roster. Sure, 6th (5th and 7th) rounders should always be given a chance to compete for a roster spot.

As an aside, my expectation is that 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders always make the 53, even if they show nothing. They will/should always be given a year to develop.

 

[State]

DT (4) – Christian Barmore, Davon Godchaux, Daniel Ekuale, Trysten Hill, Sam Roberts (PS),

Godsmack, prodded by his wife, is likely going to sit out for a big contract. We will miss Lawrence Guy.

This interior looks the weakest in the AFC East. Maybe the guy from the Steelers will prove a pleasant surprise, Armon Watts.

As I continue to reiterate: we should have made a move to both bolster our interior and weaken an opponent by courting the Bills’ Daquan Jones, a Larry Guy doppleganger.

 

[mgteich]

Godsmack, prodded by his wife, is likely going to sit out for a big contract. We will miss Lawrence Guy.

This interior looks the weakest in the AFC East. Maybe the guy from the Steelers will prove a pleasant surprise, Armon Watts.

As I continue to reiterate: we should have made a move to both bolster our interior and weaken an opponent by courting the Bills’ Daquan Jones, a Larry Guy doppleganger.

Give Godchaux what he needs to stay in 2024. Best is to give him big money extension, but at least let's get through this season. For Godchaux, waiting until next off-season makes sense, as long as he has some injury protection and some cash in 2024.

 

[Wozzy]

Godsmack, prodded by his wife, is likely going to sit out for a big contract. We will miss Lawrence Guy.

This interior looks the weakest in the AFC East. Maybe the guy from the Steelers will prove a pleasant surprise, Armon Watts.

As I continue to reiterate: we should have made a move to both bolster our interior and weaken an opponent by courting the Bills’ Daquan Jones, a Larry Guy doppleganger.

The collaboration station pretty much screwed themselves by not solving some of these issues during the draft or in free agency.

Now they have zero leverage other than accepting they will suck this year regardless, or hopefully a vet DT will be cut during the 53 man roster purge and they can sign him. But that guy is likely to be older, extending Godchaux is probably their best bet.

 

[n1997y]

Don't know enough about most of these guys. Pharms has improved each year and was playing more at the end of the year. I say he sticks. Roberts never developed. I thought he showed real ability when he first arrived, but he has never developed, it's time for him to move on.
I think Uche is overrated, but he just signed a new contract so he will stay. I liked McMillan, but he will get hurt.
Austin is a keeper. Bolden showed promise but it was in early days. I liked Bledsoe as a rookie, but I'm getting ready to put him in the basket with Roberts. He has played but has never shone out.

Anyway, it's good to be getting to the fun stuff approaching TC.

Bingo! We don’t know much about most of these guys. We don’t know if they’ve not developed, or have developed but just not enough to crack the lineup because there’s a well entrenched starter and some good depth ahead of them. Wade is a good example, last couple of years he’s looked like a disappointment, but got some playing time last year and now we’re talking about him as a possible roster piece.

Coaches get to see the day to day, so they know better than we do. Same for knowing the new guys, like whether a 6th rounder has the potential to be worth keeping over last year’s PS developmental prospect. And whether an established player is starting to show the wear and tear of age so more easily surpassed by a new guy.

We don’t get to see most of that. But we can speculate and have fun arguing about it all anyway.

 

[n1997y]

fair enough

For the record, my expectation is always that inexpensive players who have been on the squad for us will not be beaten out by a 6th rounder. That's just where I start when making WAG's about the 53-man roster. Sure, 6th (5th and 7th) rounders should always be given a chance to compete for a roster spot.

As an aside, my expectation is that 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders always make the 53, even if they show nothing. They will/should always be given a year to develop.

I figure a guy who was with the team last year has an edge in his second year but after that he better be showing substantial improvement each year. If he’s not then a newcomer with potential has the upside. It’s not simple though, depends on the rest of the picture, who else is competing at that position, whether it’s a position of need.

Generally I think a second year player has the advantage because he was good enough to stick last year. After that if he’s not moving up he’s vulnerable to being moved out.

 

[rkarp1]

extending Godchaux is the prudent move. he is 30 years old, plays a high percentage of snaps, and along with Barmore, has been extremely effective against the run.
giving Godchaux 2/$30 is a fair AAV for his position and performance. how much is guaranteed is clearly the sticking point.
converting his current salary/per game roster bonus ($8.3m ) to a sign bonus spread over the next 2 seasons is a good start. guarantee this year at $15m. next years salary of $15m guarantees next February, allowing the team to decide if they want him back.
Godchaux gets $23m guaranteed between sign bonus and 2024 base, all guaranteed.
Next year is wait and see how he performs this year.
2024 cap hit-$4.13m bonus + $15m base=$19m cap hit
2025 cap hit-$4.13 bonus. $15m tbd. cap hit either $4.15 or $19m