Vegas' 2024 Over/Under Win Total for Pats: 4.5

[Huckleberry1]

As much as I hate Jerrah and the Cowboys, it would be perfect theatre if BB took one last kick at the can in Dallas.

Agree completely. I can’t imagine rooting for the Cowboys to win a Lombardi, but I would root for that if Belichick was the coach, and the Patriots weren’t in the game.

 

[BobDigital]

I'd take the over. I think they win 5 maybe 6. Only because the offense can't get worse than it was last year. And the D is about the same give or take. I think 5-12 or 6-11 are more likely than 4-13 or worse again. Rookie QBs have bad games, but they also surprise teams with the lack of tape on them. All the Pats need to get over 4.5 Is have Drake surprise a few teams this year.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I'd take the over. I think they win 5 maybe 6. Only because they offense can't get worse than it was last year. And the D is about the same give or take. I think 5-12 or 6-11 are more likely than 4-13 or worse again. Rookie QBs have bad games, but they also surprise teams with the lack of tape on them. All the Pats need to get over 4.5 Is have Drake surprise a few teams this year.

To me much of their offensive success is going to depend upon how effectively they can run the ball. The Browns have been a really good team running the ball, and Van Pelt really got the most out their offense. If they can be a strong running team then the offensive line will be dishing out the hits instead of taking them all day, and that will ultimately make them more effective throwing the ball, and as an offense overall. Brissett can’t carry them, but he can manage games. I don’t want to see Maye until the OL is playing reliably well.

 

[mgteich]

To me much of their offensive success is going to depend upon how effectively they can run the ball. The Browns have been a really good team running the ball, and Van Pelt really got the most out their offense. If they can be a strong running team then the offensive line will be dishing out the hits instead of taking them all day, and that will ultimately make them more effective throwing the ball, and as an offense overall. Brissett can’t carry them, but he can manage games. I don’t want to see Maye until the OL is playing reliably well.

If the Defense is healthy, how much success does the Offense need to win ONE more game than last year?

So, I don't put up a standard that the Offense will be "successful". I only ask that they be in the top 25 of offenses, a major achievement. In 2025, when May starts Game One, we can consider how successful we need to be to be able to compete for the playoffs (top 15 would be plenty, top 25 would likely be enough to be competitive,)

 

[1960Pats]

That’s because much of the defensive staff is still in place, and the personnel is good, but the coaches will have to demonstrate how much they have learned under Belichick to continue to be a strong defense. The other part of that equation comes from just how bad the offense hung the defense out to dry the past two seasons. They were always on the field, and never playing with a lead, both are seriously detrimental to playing strong defense. Hopefully Van Pelts focus on running the ball effectively will lead to more time of possession and a fresher defense, especially when games are in the line.

I'd say it wasn't the offense that hung the defense out to dry, it was the GM who hung the offense out to dry. That was the cause.

 

[sb1]

I'd say it wasn't the offense that hung the defense out to dry, it was the GM who hung the offense out to dry. That was the cause.

Yep.

 

[FCB02062]

Thanks Bill!

 

[TheRainMaker]

Not necessarily. If the Cowboys falter again this year under McCarthy there could be a drumbeat in Dallas to bring in Belichick, especially if it comes with MacDaniels as OC.

Jerry should've pulled the trigger this off-season for two reasons. One, they underachieved....again losing in the Wild Card round. The second reason is now they have a dilemma with Dak Prescott because of the latest contract Lawrence signed. Dallas will have to make a tough decision if Dak has a good season, but crashes early in the playoffs again. He will command $60M per year because of Jacksonville wreaking the QB market. I'd rather have had Bill at HC and then know for sure whether Dak is worth it or not. The likelihood Dak and McCarthy go on a run is slim to none.

 

[mgteich]

I'd say it wasn't the offense that hung the defense out to dry, it was the GM who hung the offense out to dry. That was the cause.

Let's be clear, it is Belichick and injuries were the cause of the debacle that was 2023 and was made obvious in the nightmare in Germany. I suppose a bit of the blame must go to Josh for leaving.

Call it Belichick the GM if you wish, but that is just semantics. Belichick the coach had lots of influence on the decisions of Belichick the GM.
Who hired Patricia and Judge to run the Offense? Who didn't insist that we have a dedicated OL coach? Who refused to step in when Patricia was failing so badly (certainly this was Belichick the coach)? An example was the failed attempt to move Wynn to RT. They tried in camp; it looked awful. They tried in the early games and it looked awful. They turned a below average LT and probably OK NFL LG or backup LG into one of the worst RT's in the NFL. He also allowed Patricia to turn a mediocre QB into an almost total failure. Yes, blame Jones for not producing in spite of horrible game plans, quarterback coaching, game plans and OL coaching. SHAME ON JONES! Jones might have been just what we might expect as the 5th QB drafted, a potential OK starter at QB. And, of course, he played better as a rookie than any of the other rookie QB's. Jones needed a lot MORE coaching to continue to develop. He didn't get it.

Even if he couldn't make any hires, Belichick the COACH was responsible for stepping in when coaches needed help or when they were doing poorly. Belichick failed.
================
Belichick was a GREAT Defensive Coordinator and could develop GREAT defensive game plans. And yes, he could evaluate and bring in old veterans to contribute. And he could evaluate and develop late rounders and UDFA's. This all gave Belichick one of best records of all time. And THEN, and THEN, and then he failed to understand that without Brady, he needed to do MUCH, MUCH MORE. He needed mUCH, MUCH more help.

 

[sb1]

Let's be clear, it is Belichick and injuries were the cause of the debacle that was 2023 and was made obvious in the nightmare in Germany. I suppose a bit of the blame must go to Josh for leaving.

Call it Belichick the GM if you wish, but that is just semantics. Belichick the coach had lots of influence on the decisions of Belichick the GM.
Who hired Patricia and Judge to run the Offense? Who didn't insist that we have a dedicated OL coach? Who refused to step in when Patricia was failing so badly (certainly this was Belichick the coach)? An example was the failed attempt to move Wynn to RT. They tried in camp; it looked awful. They tried in the early games and it looked awful. They turned a below average LT and probably OK NFL LG or backup LG into one of the worst RT's in the NFL. He also allowed Patricia to turn a mediocre QB into an almost total failure. Yes, blame Jones for not producing in spite of horrible game plans, quarterback coaching, game plans and OL coaching. SHAME ON JONES! Jones might have been just what we might expect as the 5th QB drafted, a potential OK starter at QB. And, of course, he played better as a rookie than any of the other rookie QB's. Jones needed a lot MORE coaching to continue to develop. He didn't get it.

And that was the point where Belichick lost me.

The kind of coaching is something we all would have mocked the Jets for having and rightfully so..

 

[Huckleberry1]

If the Defense is healthy, how much success does the Offense need to win ONE more game than last year?

So, I don't put up a standard that the Offense will be "successful". I only ask that they be in the top 25 of offenses, a major achievement. In 2025, when May starts Game One, we can consider how successful we need to be to be able to compete for the playoffs (top 15 would be plenty, top 25 would likely be enough to be competitive,)

You seem to be asking that in a vacuum. The problem with the offense wasn’t as straightforward as just data, it included the very human quality where Mac Jones flat out **** the bed any time they were in a position to pull out a win.

As far as this years offense goes I expect an emphasis on running the ball, and Brissett game managing the offense. I don’t want to see Maye until the OL shows they can protect the QB reasonably well. I have no idea how many games they will win, once again that will depend upon how successful they are at establishing the run, which will help the team in many ways. But if they are unable to establish a strong run game then I think it’s going to be another long season.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Let's be clear, it is Belichick and injuries were the cause of the debacle that was 2023 and was made obvious in the nightmare in Germany. I suppose a bit of the blame must go to Josh for leaving.

Wait....are you blaming Josh wanting to be a HC and his absence the downfall of the Pats? Josh isn't an offensive wizard as he preached to his players during his first stint with the Broncos. In fact, we all know he didn't even last 2 seasons in LV and the offense was atrocious. After all the stuff that former players have been saying about him, he'll be lucky to resurface at some point.

The Pats in 2021 were built to run the ball effectively so it would make Mac's passing attempts more manageable and not expected to take over games. The defense's job was to keep games close. Things were on script for the first 13 games, but they got exposed when the Colts beat them at their own game. With that said, the team was a lot better than it was in 2022 and 2023. I'm one of the rare posters that saw the team was deteriorating after the 2021 season and that is why they went from 10 wins to 8 wins and now 4 wins.

 

[mgteich]

Wait....are you blaming Josh wanting to be a HC and his absence the downfall of the Pats?.

"blaming" him for taking a promotion? Of course not.

I'm just stating a fact. Josh leaving hurt the patriots and especially Jones.

However, the fault goes to Belichick for not being able to adjust to Josh leaving.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Jerry should've pulled the trigger this off-season for two reasons. One, they underachieved....again losing in the Wild Card round. The second reason is now they have a dilemma with Dak Prescott because of the latest contract Lawrence signed. Dallas will have to make a tough decision if Dak has a good season, but crashes early in the playoffs again. He will command $60M per year because of Jacksonville wreaking the QB market. I'd rather have had Bill at HC and then know for sure whether Dak is worth it or not. The likelihood Dak and McCarthy go on a run is slim to none.

The problem is bigger than that for Jerrah, as he now has 3 players who are going to demand top money at their positions, and I honestly don’t see how he pays all 3 given what it will require. Prescott is going to demand over 50 million, even though he isn’t worth it, Lamb is going to demand the same $$$ as Jefferson, and I won’t be surprised if Parsons wants to be the highest paid defender in football. If I’m Wolf I’m keeping a really good eye on the Cowboys roster, as they are going to have to make serious cuts to get all 3 signed.

 

[sb1]

I guess (formerly our) Ashley would go with the under. Yikes!

 

[captain stone]

I guess (formerly our) Ashley would go with the under. Yikes!

Is that...our Ashley who wrote that? Where was she with this for the last Four seasons?

I guess she was more of a Belichick fan than a Patriots fan.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I guess (formerly our) Ashley would go with the under. Yikes!

Is that...our Ashley who wrote that? Where was she with this for the last Four seasons?

I guess she was more of a Belichick fan than a Patriots fan.

Yes, that's her, but this tweet was in March. With that said, I'm still sure she doesn't like the current Pats team.

 

[NCPATSFAN1971]

I'll take the Over. I know statistics can be used to build a case and can be full of kaka but here are some:

The Pats ranked #6 in turnovers last season with 8 Lost Fumbles and 21 Interceptions and a had 4 and 13 Win/Loss Record. The only other team in the Top 6 in Turnovers with a 4 and 13 Win/Loss Record was Washington who had 14 Lost Fumbles and 21 Interceptions.

The remaining 4 teams ranked in the Top 6 in Turnovers all won at least 7 Games and Cleveland who ranked #1 in Turnovers had 11 Wins.

Obviously it depends when and where on the field that these turnovers occurred. I think most of us can remember how many Interceptions Jones threw into the Jaws of Defeat just when the Pats had a chance to win. Even Zappe threw at least one interception to seal a defeat against Washington.

So maybe I have a stretch here but I'm an optimist. . .

Most Turnovers By NFL Teams 2023 | StatMuse

The Cleveland Browns had the most turnovers by a team in 2023, with 37 turnovers.

www.statmuse.com

 

[Pape]

Is that...our Ashley who wrote that? Where was she with this for the last Four seasons?

I guess she was more of a Belichick fan than a Patriots fan.

Loved Ashley... she gave so many people fits, it was hilarious tbh...but she was invited to leave the site, so we'll never know.

 

[NormZauchin]

As much as I hate Jerrah and the Cowboys, it would be perfect theatre if BB took one last kick at the can in Dallas.

Yeah, and Belichick and Jerrah can double date a couple of cheerleaders from one of the local Dallas high schools.