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OT Barnwell: Should teams trade up in the NFL draft? Lessons from past deals

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Can you spare us and just tell us the conclusions?
I skimmed through it. I'm going to need more caffeine to genuinely focus on the full article, it's a very long column.

Basically he is suggesting that a team should trade up for a QB, based on the potential upside.

(On the other hand we had a discussion a few weeks ago based on another ESPN article that trading up for a QB was at best a 50-50 proposition.)


Barnwell also states that besides QB, a team should go ahead and trade up for other premium positions (wide receivers, offensive tackles and pass-rushers), again based on the potential upside.

He then hedges his own hypothesis by stating that a team should not overpay, and be realistic about their own roster.

One last note is that Barnwell concludes that a team should not sacrifice future picks for lesser picks in the current year's draft.
He uses the example of when the Patriots traded a 2nd round pick in the current draft to Baltimore, for the following year's first.
Brian Billick and the Ravens drafted QB Kyle Boller; a year later the Pats drafted Vince Wilfork with that Ravens draft pick.



I may have missed it, but I didn't see a corresponding analysis of the benefit of trading down; to me that would have been a helpful comparison. Barnwell did compare the value of staying put versus trading up, however.
 
I fell asleep reading the article trying to find a conclusion.
Indeed that's the way with Barnwell. A few gems buried in lots and lots and lots of words. I don't have the patience for it. I tried listening to his podcasts a few different times but in the end it's just not worth the time. Also, his speaking voice is bad, he mumbles way too much.
 
Barnwwell needs to tidy that up and it doesn't take a novel to get his point across.

 
Thanks for the Intel on that article everyone

Not going to read ...

I'm just going to assume it's about is trading up worth it? It depends... But the way too long version

That sound about right?
 
The conclusion is that trading down and amassing more picks is the right approach...literally the first sentence of the SECOND paragraph
 
The conclusion is that trading down and amassing more picks is the right approach...literally the first sentence of the SECOND paragraph
That's the standard thinking that he was looking to question, or confirm... then he went deeper... and my brain went...

 
That's the standard thinking that he was looking to question, or confirm... then he went deeper... and my brain went...

Fair enough, the conclusion is, "the easiest way to tilt the draft in your favor is to amass extra picks. And while trading up isn't quite as damaging as I might have guessed after analyzing the data, I'd encourage you to be at least a little skeptical the next time you see your team's draft room high-fiving after a move up the board."
 
Thanks for the Intel on that article everyone

Not going to read ...

I'm just going to assume it's about is trading up worth it? It depends... But the way too long version

That sound about right?
I'm not giving ESPN the click because ESPN.

Move up for a QB, OT or WR. Move down and amass picks for everything else. Got it.
 
The one thing I noticed about next year's draft, and this is not article related, is not a single 1st round draft pick had been traded thus far and only 3 changed hands in the 2nd round. I don't know if this is trend or if front office people think highly of next year's draft. It could also be just a coincidence.
 
I'm not giving ESPN the click because ESPN.

Move up for a QB, OT or WR. Move down and amass picks for everything else. Got it.


Remember that time when we traded up for Chad Jackson, and that time when we traded up for Tyquan Thornton? That was awesome!
 


Remember that time when we traded up for Chad Jackson, and that time when we traded up for Tyquan Thornton? That was awesome!
I remember several trade ups that worked why not mention them all?
 
I remember several trade ups that worked why not mention them all?
You’re (and @RxJock1120 too) taking me way too seriously. I’m having fun with the fact that Barnwell’s conclusion is that we should trade up for wide receivers, yet the only two times we did it we got athletes and not football players.
 
You’re (and @RxJock1120 too) taking me way too seriously. I’m having fun with the fact that Barnwell’s conclusion is that we should trade up for wide receivers, yet the only two times we did it we got athletes and not football players.
I missed that lol good point
 
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