Content Post Let's Talk Free Agency 2024

[KCSVEN]

With the seemingly high percentage of top free agents looking like they will be tagged with the recent cap increase it seems imperative the Pats tag Onwenu. Dugger is older and plays a position they have some depth. Replacing Onwenu is not going to be so easy.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Dolphins will tag Christian Wilkins if necessary to retain him, report says​

Hal Habib
Palm Beach Post


February 22 2024

Ouch!!!!! That guy should be in Foxboro

 

[venecol]

With the seemingly high percentage of top free agents looking like they will be tagged with the recent cap increase it seems imperative the Pats tag Onwenu. Dugger is older and plays a position they have some depth. Replacing Onwenu is not going to be so easy.

$21M for a RG. No thanks.

 

[KCSVEN]

$21M for a RG. No thanks.

Ideally, it's just to buy time to negotiate a 4–5-year deal. If not, It is just for 1 year where they have plenty of cap space and will have trouble spending it based on this free agent class.
He's just as likely going to be the right tackle.
It's estimated he's going to get 13.6 million per for 4 years, and that's probably understated due to the lack of quality linemen and the recent increase in cap space for all teams. He might get 15 million.
Joe Thuney is 26 million against the KC cap, so 20 million for 1 year while you try to sign him long-term. Alternatively it gives you time to find someone to replace him in 2025. This is not the worst thing that could happen.

 

[lancerman]

With Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe throwing to him.

I would be fine in this scenario making a play in free agency for a stopgap QB or getting one later in the draft. This 100% depends on if they love who the QB that is there at #3 is. Obviously if you absolutely love him, you get him. But if you are mixed, there's a generational prospect at a position the Pats really haven't had locked down in years that is massively important in the modern NFL.

 

[venecol]

Ideally, it's just to buy time to negotiate a 4–5-year deal. If not, It is just for 1 year where they have plenty of cap space and will have trouble spending it based on this free agent class.
He's just as likely going to be the right tackle.
It's estimated he's going to get 13.6 million per for 4 years, and that's probably understated due to the lack of quality linemen and the recent increase in cap space for all teams. He might get 15 million.
Joe Thuney is 26 million against the KC cap, so 20 million for 1 year while you try to sign him long-term. Alternatively it gives you time to find someone to replace him in 2025. This is not the worst thing that could happen.

We did this with Thuney, who was 100% worth it (All Pro), and couldn't reach a deal. He walked the following season. Spending 21% of your available cap (assuming $101M w/ JC release) on a good RG, average RT is not smart. I'd rather spend that on a young D player like Madubuike w/ money to spare.

The main problem is the tag = cap hit. You can't manipulate that $21M, which could pay for 2 to 3 players.

 

[50-yard-line]

This sudden consensus that Onwenu is an @average” RT boggles the mind. He’s barely played there and solidified the line this year when he was moved there.

Seems like “grass is greener” attitude to me.

Onwenu is damned good.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

We did this with Thuney, who was 100% worth it (All Pro), and couldn't reach a deal. He walked the following season. Spending 21% of your available cap (assuming $101M w/ JC release) on a good RG, average RT is not smart. I'd rather spend that on a young D player like Madubuike w/ money to spare.

The main problem is the tag = cap hit. You can't manipulate that $21M, which could pay for 2 to 3 players.

But easy to manipulate other contracts to make up. So cap hit is absolutely not the issue.

 

[Love The Drake]

This sudden consensus that Onwenu is an @average” RT boggles the mind. He’s barely played there and solidified the line this year when he was moved there.

Seems like “grass is greener” attitude to me.

Onwenu is damned good.

He’s the free agent we can’t afford to lose the most,
Him and 2 new WRs in free agency or Mayfield and drafting Harrison JR

 

[venecol]

But easy to manipulate other contracts to make up. So cap hit is absolutely not the issue.

Look, I have no problem re-signing Mike. His flexibility adds value. Re-sign him. Cut him a deal. But don't tag him because it hampers what you can do with that $. Right now Judon is our largest cap hit at $14.7M. The $21M blows that out of the water, not even for a LT.

If you need a RT, sign Eluemunor, who's a swing tackle, at way less money. Then target Ts in the draft and get 3.

Every single DT we have will be an UFA in 2025, except for Sam Roberts. There are good DT in FAcy. Need to extend Barmore. That money can be used for that.

I get that $101M is a lot of $ but Pats have a lot of holes and unfortunately they'll need to overpay to convince good players to come to the worst team in the AFC.

 

[lancerman]

This sudden consensus that Onwenu is an @average” RT boggles the mind. He’s barely played there and solidified the line this year when he was moved there.

Seems like “grass is greener” attitude to me.

Onwenu is damned good.

This fanbase sometimes has a huge issue with sticker shock whenever it's time to sign someone.

 

[Love The Drake]

Look, I have no problem re-signing Mike. His flexibility adds value. Re-sign him. Cut him a deal. But don't tag him because it hampers what you can do with that $. Right now Judon is our largest cap hit at $14.7M. The $21M blows that out of the water, not even for a LT.

If you need a RT, sign Eluemunor, who's a swing tackle, at way less money. Then target Ts in the draft and get 3.

Every single DT we have will be an UFA in 2025, except for Sam Roberts. There are good DT in FAcy. Need to extend Barmore. That money can be used for that.

I get that $101M is a lot of $ but Pats have a lot of holes and unfortunately they'll need to overpay to convince good players to come to the worst team in the AFC.

I’d prefer both Owenu and a swing tackle
Should Try to fill as many holes as possible prior
To the draft that way you can go best player on the board vs filling a need and missing a real impact player.

 

[KCSVEN]

We did this with Thuney, who was 100% worth it (All Pro), and couldn't reach a deal. He walked the following season. Spending 21% of your available cap (assuming $101M w/ JC release) on a good RG, average RT is not smart. I'd rather spend that on a young D player like Madubuike w/ money to spare.

The main problem is the tag = cap hit. You can't manipulate that $21M, which could pay for 2 to 3 players.

Madubuike is projected at 20.3 million per year, no money to spare if you sign him.
Players like Madubike are less than 50/50 to even make it to free agency. Already multiple posts suggesting he gets tagged with the extra cap space that become available and a small restructure to Jackson while they work out a contract.

I doubt you'll find 2 guys at 20 million total they can sign that will make you a better team than Onwenu.
Realizing that 20 is in addition to the other 80 they have to spend.

Obviously if you can, then yes, better way to go, just looks uncertain that can happen.

I think people are really mis-reading the market, many of the people that everyone wants will not be available or will sign elsewhere.

Young D Players in the top 50 free agents:

Allen-Will be tagged
Jaylon Johnson-Tagged or new contract- Bears GM says he is not letting him go
Brian Burns-Tagged
Madubuike-Tag or new contract now at least 50% likely ($20 million projected per year)
Winfield-Tagged
Sneed-Looks like free agency, multiple suitors (12 million per projected)
Chase Young-Meh Player but will be free agent (13.6 million projected)
Murphy-Bunting-90th of 127 CB's at PFF but available relatively cheaply
Patrick Queen-Free Agent, looking near 19 million a year-Multiple suitors
Greenard-Free agent multiple suitors 14 million a year projected, probably low.
Xavier McKinney-Free agent 10 million projected

That's everyone in the top 50 on defense and under 27, You can't get 2 guys for under 20 million, best case seems to be McKinney at 10 and greenard at 14 but that's 24 million and those projections were all before the increased cap space. You can do that and Calvin Ridley and Schultz and still tag OnWenu and have 30 million left.

The Pats lose Brown and Onwenu and Strange is coming off injury, it is the weakest part of the team, they need Onwenu pretty badly to come back.
Questionable if you can spend that $20 million elsewhere for a better return.

 

[mgteich]

Ideally, it's just to buy time to negotiate a 4–5-year deal. If not, It is just for 1 year where they have plenty of cap space and will have trouble spending it based on this free agent class.
He's just as likely going to be the right tackle.
It's estimated he's going to get 13.6 million per for 4 years, and that's probably understated due to the lack of quality linemen and the recent increase in cap space for all teams. He might get 15 million.
Joe Thuney is 26 million against the KC cap, so 20 million for 1 year while you try to sign him long-term. Alternatively it gives you time to find someone to replace him in 2025. This is not the worst thing that could happen.

But easy to manipulate other contracts to make up. So cap hit is absolutely not the issue.

So, franchise Onwenu. His agent would recommend an immediate signing and "thank you" for the 2024 $21M guarantee.

So, then Onwenu will consider what to consider when the patriots want to extend the $21M/1 to a longer contract. Folks think that he is one the best in the league. Surely $16M a year for the next 3 would be a minimum plus the $21M for this year. Why would Onwenu sign of anything less? $69M/4. Is that OK with you all?

 

[mgteich]

I’d prefer both Owenu and a swing tackle
Should Try to fill as many holes as possible prior
To the draft that way you can go best player on the board vs filling a need and missing a real impact player.

I don't think that Onwenu is accepting the level of LT deal that folks here would think that he SHOULD sign. He is one of the very top free agent OL's and will be paid as such. Of course, he would happily accept $21M for the patriots and then go to free agency again next year.

 

[PatsFan2]

Chris Jones is Big Time he was as Dominating as Seymour in that SB game he's going to get paid and well deserved. The Bengals can Draft WR's I can see them letting Tee Higgins walk Great Year for Teams looking for WR's in the upcoming Draft. Some will disagree but I don't think Dugger is to die for he's not a complete player he's good but not potentially Great. I would go all out for a Tee Higgins in FA while sel selecting another WR on Day 2.

 

[mgteich]

The Pats lose Brown and Onwenu and Strange is coming off injury, it is the weakest part of the team, they need Onwenu pretty badly to come back.
Questionable if you can spend that $20 million elsewhere for a better return.

$20M will probably buy a starting LT on a 3 year deal plus a swing OT in this year's free agency.

Is $21M for a one year Onwenu contract really better? Is $80M/4 really better?

 

[Love The Drake]

Chris Jones is Big Time he was as Dominating as Seymour in that SB game he's going to get paid and well deserved. The Bengals can Draft WR's I can see them letting Tee Higgins walk Great Year for Teams looking for WR's in the upcoming Draft. Some will disagree but I don't think Dugger is to die for he's not a complete player he's good but not potentially Great. I would go all out for a Tee Higgins in FA while sel selecting another WR on Day 2.

Higgins was Franchised.
I can see a team like KC or with a late first trying to Pry Higgins lose.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

Madubuike is projected at 20.3 million per year, no money to spare if you sign him.
Players like Madubike are less than 50/50 to even make it to free agency. Already multiple posts suggesting he gets tagged with the extra cap space that become available and a small restructure to Jackson while they work out a contract.

I doubt you'll find 2 guys at 20 million total they can sign that will make you a better team than Onwenu.
Realizing that 20 is in addition to the other 80 they have to spend.

Obviously if you can, then yes, better way to go, just looks uncertain that can happen.

I think people are really mis-reading the market, many of the people that everyone wants will not be available or will sign elsewhere.

Young D Players in the top 50 free agents:

Allen-Will be tagged
Jaylon Johnson-Tagged or new contract- Bears GM says he is not letting him go
Brian Burns-Tagged
Madubuike-Tag or new contract now at least 50% likely ($20 million projected per year)
Winfield-Tagged

did this already happen?

Sneed-Looks like free agency, multiple suitors (12 million per projected)
Chase Young-Meh Player but will be free agent (13.6 million projected)
Murphy-Bunting-90th of 127 CB's at PFF but available relatively cheaply
Patrick Queen-Free Agent, looking near 19 million a year-Multiple suitors
Greenard-Free agent multiple suitors 14 million a year projected, probably low.
Xavier McKinney-Free agent 10 million projected

That's everyone in the top 50 on defense and under 27, You can't get 2 guys for under 20 million, best case seems to be McKinney at 10 and greenard at 14 but that's 24 million and those projections were all before the increased cap space. You can do that and Calvin Ridley and Schultz and still tag OnWenu and have 30 million left.

The Pats lose Brown and Onwenu and Strange is coming off injury, it is the weakest part of the team, they need Onwenu pretty badly to come back.
Questionable if you can spend that $20 million elsewhere for a better return.

 

[slash83]

Free Agency class getting less and less attractive