Issue with this is, we know for a fact all 7 of those QB's aren't going to end up being franchise QB's longterm. Realistically as little as 1 and as many as 3. So there's at least 4 busts straight up in that group. Bowers could be a great TE, but that position is a lot harder to develop and the gap between the top tier TE's and the glorified WR2/3 TE's is huge.
Realistically I'd say of those picks, 2 QB's, 1 of the WR,s and maybe 2 of the others will end up being big hits. Which means 5. And it's highly likely that if we win a few games, the most likely QB's are gone and so is Harrison who will likely be the first non QB gone.
Unfortunately this is too accurate and why I’m personally not excited about drafting an early qb.
It almost feels like playing a high odds lottery that costs a boatload to play. Sure it would be great to enter a multi million dollar lottery with a 1/5-1/8 chance to win, but it hurts a ton if it costs a million to enter and you lose.
The odds get better to at least break even if you have the pick of the litter, but in my entire lifetime (197
there have been 23 QB taken overall and only a few HOF
Elway
Aikman
Manning (P)
Quite a few had really solid careers though
Bledsoe
Palmer
Manning (E)
Alex Smith
Stafford
Luck (had he remained healthy)
Testevarde (? His longevity helped build up surprising career numbers)
then a few likely to end up above
Burrow
Goff
Still too early
Lawrence
Murray (trending down)
I’m typing on phone so not super organized
So that’s 23 in 45 years
3 HoF (13%)
7 good to great careers (30%)
2 more likely good to great (9%)
2 unknown (9%)
9 below average, 2-3 solid seasons, or busts (39%)
I used my lifetime because why not lol
Let’s say 50/50 they will be a franchise qb for the first overall.
That said, looking at the other picks and without running stats it seems like qb at 50%+ seems better odds than other positions.
And now that I’m thinking more, it almost makes me wonder if BB should trade down a few slots since the top 10 really just seems like a gamble. A very good odds gamble, but a gamble.
May as well pick up more good entries into that lottery in exchange for slightly worse odds. No? Using AZ/HOU as example he could trade down 9ish spots and get a high first and second and future first and third.
Four picks in the first 40-45 could be nice