NEW ARTICLE: 2022 Patriots Season Prediction: How They Get to 13 Wins

[Ian]

A tad bit light on analysis to conclude anything beyond the writer loves his Pats

Ian, your glass is 13/17ths full

What's a little crazy as well is the fact the NFC North is part of the equation - they're not exactly facing a gauntlet of teams who they can't hang with/beat. It's not impossible for them to be in each game and Mac's ability to be smart with the football also makes me a little more optimistic.

 

[borg]

Local mediots have expressed equal if not elevated concern for the composition of this Pats secondary compared to the well known OL issues in large part due to the loss of JC Jackson and no bonafide #1 to replace him...plus this team's likely reliance on 1 or 2 diminutive rookie CBs.
The expectation now is that this secondary will rely on zone coverage even more this year which is fine vs ordinary QBs but has proven inadequate vs quality QBs.
For zone to have a chance vs quality passing teams, NE needs a more consistent pass rush that can be sustained for 17 games unlike last season.
For me, it's a huge stretch to believe 'zone' will be anywhere good enough to compete with the elite passing teams that consistently dominate the standings.
Factor in the likelihood that this year's secondary will not create INTs at a pace even close to what the ball hawking JC Jackson achieved on his own.

On paper, this is a significant issue.
We'll see....

 

[All3Phases]

It would only be skewed in a vacuum. However PPG is measured against all the other teams who also (get ready for this) play crappy teams.

So while YES you are correct, the pats scored more points against crappy teams and less against better teams, it does not matter because all the other teams did the same thing.

So what we need to do is look at SOG or even better yet compare how the other teams ahead of them did (looking at who they played and how easy it was for them to score points) etc etc in order to form an opinion on this.

Otherwise its just being pessimistic for no reason because you arent thinking the whole thing though. It would be easy (but take some time) to see how the 7-12th ranked offenses did against better/worse teams.

I dont think its the point of crappy vs non crappy. Its that two 50 point games really skew the stat. They were pretty one dimensional as an offense last year, had to play from ahead, ball control, run oriented...when that was taken away they were simply mediocre. 9 games they scored 20 or less offensively. Like you said, maybe most teams are like that, but if you watched them and thought they were great offensively, Id have to disagree with you.

You can call it pessimistic, I just was countering all of your optimism with a different side of coin...They do have a deeper receiving unit, theyre also struggling to learn a new portion of offense, while being coached by two coaches who really never coached offense before as a specialty.

 

[Ian]

Local mediots have expressed equal if not elevated concern for the composition of this Pats secondary compared to the well known OL issues in large part due to the loss of JC Jackson and no bonafide #1 to replace him...plus this team's likely reliance on 1 or 2 diminutive rookie CBs.
The expectation now is that this secondary will rely on zone coverage even more this year which is fine vs ordinary QBs but has proven inadequate vs quality QBs.
For zone to have a chance vs quality passing teams, NE needs a more consistent pass rush that can be sustained for 17 games unlike last season.
For me, it's a huge stretch to believe 'zone' will be anywhere good enough to compete with the elite passing teams that consistently dominate the standings.
Factor in the likelihood that this year's secondary will not create INTs at a pace even close to what the ball hawking JC Jackson achieved on his own.

On paper, this is a significant issue.
We'll see....

It all comes down to whether or not they can generate pressure from the edge and up the middle. If they can do that, I think Belichick can coach them up enough to the point they can potentially get by with who they have. If they can't, you're right, going to be tough.

 

[Bruins29]

I dont think its the point of crappy vs non crappy. Its that two 50 point games really skew the stat. They were pretty one dimensional as an offense last year, had to play from ahead, ball control, run oriented...when that was taken away they were simply mediocre. 9 games they scored 20 or less offensively. Like you said, maybe most teams are like that, but if you watched them and thought they were great offensively, Id have to disagree with you.

You can call it pessimistic, I just was countering all of your optimism with a different side of coin...They do have a deeper receiving unit, theyre also struggling to learn a new portion of offense, while being coached by two coaches who really never coached offense before as a specialty.

They were what they were and thats with a rookie QB who was not being allowed to throw downfield when is big ticket FA was open. And a big ticket TE that flamed out.

Nobody was saying they were great.

 

[All3Phases]

They were what they were and thats with a rookie QB who was not being allowed to throw downfield when is big ticket FA was open. And a big ticket TE that flamed out.

Nobody was saying they were great.

You did say they should be great, I countered why they shouldnt. Thinking McDaniels was the problem last year is kind of nonsensical...Im sure you will change your tune when you see what the coaching is like this year. The tight end could very well still flame out, he hasnt shown anything that says he wont.

 

[Bruins29]

You did say they should be great, I countered why they shouldnt. Thinking McDaniels was the problem last year is kind of nonsensical...Im sure you will change your tune when you see what the coaching is like this year. The tight end could very well still flame out, he hasnt shown anything that says he wont.

YES "Should" as in fixed some major problems. I am not guaranteeing it. Do you understand the difference?

Can't really speak to the coaching as there are some very smart people running things there. Lets see what they do.

You say the TE (Smith) hasnt shown anything that he wont flame out. Other than the fact that he has had an awesome camp and has been one of the leaders in receptions, you are right, he hasnt shown anything.

LOL

 

[All3Phases]

YES "Should" as in fixed some major problems. I am not guaranteeing it. Do you understand the difference?

I understand, Im not saying they wont, I am countering your point...Do you understand that?

Fixing major problems, as in drafted a receiver? Some problems were addressed and new ones have been created.

Can't really speak to the coaching as there are some very smart people running things there. Lets see what they do.

I mean, ok

You say the TE (Smith) hasnt shown anything that he wont flame out. Other than the fact that he has had an awesome camp and has been one of the leaders in receptions, you are right, he hasnt shown anything.

LOL

I am sure you are the first one to dismiss all of the bad that has gone on in camp and this preseason, only to use a fake stat to back up this argument. Yikes on your part

 

[Bruins29]

I am sure you are the first one to dismiss all of the bad that has gone on in camp and this preseason, only to use a fake stat to back up this argument. Yikes on your part

I am talking about Smith. Nice Strawman though.

 

[All3Phases]

I am talking about Smith. Nice Strawman though.

I know, you used practice stats to back up what hes done in real games...Nice defense

Where is Zach Sudfeld when you need him!

 

[Ring 6]

I agree, just saying the offensive PPG could be skewed a touch, depends if you look at that vs the majority of games. Just playing devils advocate

We’ve been over this. If you deduct every teams best games it barely changes.
Every team has variance in their scoring by game.

 

[Bruins29]

I know, you used practice stats to back up what hes done in real games...Nice defense

Where is Zach Sudfeld when you need him!

Yeah because a guy who has never played in an NFL game is comparable to Smith.

And now you are saying practice stats are meaningless while previously telling me about all these disasters in practice.

Which one is it?

 

[All3Phases]

Yeah because a guy who has never played in an NFL game is comparable to Smith.

And now you are saying practice stats are meaningless while previously telling me about all these disasters in practice.

Which one is it?

What are you talking about? You are the only person I have ever seen use stats from practice to defend a player...Honestly, thats reaching to a new level. Zach Sudfeld was great in practice and during the 2013 preseason...you dont need to play in Reg season games to get that status apparently...You just used this logic. Are you following?

 

[Ring 6]

2022 Patriots Season Prediction: How They Get to 13 Wins
Ian Logue
I posted this initially on our discussion forum back in June and after seeing how the preseason has gone, I still feel like this team could potentially be poised for a solid year. Here's a week-by-week look at how I could see this season playing out.

The post 2022 Patriots Season Prediction: How They Get to 13 Wins appeared first on PatsFans.com.

Continue reading...

(If you enjoyed this entry - hit the Thumbs Up/If not, hit the Thumbs down in this thread)

I think 13 is the right target number. Getting there should win the division and contend for a 1 seed.
Have to beat all of the “bad teams”
Miami x2
Jets x2
Cleveland
Pitt
Detroit
Minn
Chicago
That’s 9.
Need to go 4-4 against the rest.

 

[Bruins29]

What are you talking about? You are the only person I have ever seen use stats from practice to defend a player...Honestly, thats reaching to a new level. Zach Sudfeld was great in practice and during the 2013 preseason...you dont need to play in Reg season games to get that status apparently...You just used this logic. Are you following?

Smith has already proven himself in the NFL Sudfield never did

Are you following?

 

[All3Phases]

Smith has already proven himself in the NFL Sudfield never did

Are you following?

Smith has played awful in his year here, just because he’s been a mediocre player somewhere else doesn’t mean he’s going to magically become great here. Are you following? There’s a reason why you used stats from 7 on 7 to defend your point, you have nothing else to use

 

[BB8XSBW]

Smith has played awful in his year here, just because he’s been a mediocre player somewhere else doesn’t mean he’s going to magically become great here. Are you following? There’s a reason why you used stats from 7 on 7 to defend your point, you have nothing else to use

Trolls are getting more and more creative these days. Exhibit A right here. Absolutely top notch work.

 

[Bruins29]

Smith has played awful in his year here, just because he’s been a mediocre player somewhere else doesn’t mean he’s going to magically become great here. Are you following? There’s a reason why you used stats from 7 on 7 to defend your point, you have nothing else to use

I said the O should be great. And I said Smith showed some life in camp (performing really well) which might give a hint that he wont disappear again.

You keep indicating I write things and say things that I never have to defend your point, which means you dont have one or are just here to argue.

 

[Bruins29]

Trolls are getting more and more creative these days. Exhibit A right here. Absolutely top notch work.

Shouldnt you be hanging out with all your "side chicks" LMAO

 

[BB8XSBW]

Shouldnt you be hanging out with all your "side chicks" LMAO

Not right now. I am currently watching you demolish a pretty good troll. Not an easy thing to do, so props to you, my guy.