The Trade And The Choice

[Ross12]

OPTION 1
Move down and draft your #3 OG in the first for 5 years.

OPTION 2
Trade up to 16 or higher for Johnson, perhaps costing a 3rd (or more).

OPTION 3
Trade down a 2nd time and hope that the top OG on your board was available at 54.
==================
YOU CHOOSE (Belichick rejected Option 3, since he apparently had only one OG left high on his board)
Belichick wanted to get his OG, apparently his #1 priority, so
JOHNSON or
STRANGE plus our 3rd plus an addition 3rd and an additional 4th

One of those 3rds plus the extra 4th can become an additional 2nd. Then it becomes Johnson OR Strange plus our 3rd plus an additional 2nd round talent.

 

[AQPE]

Like many of us here I was “shocked and chagrined “ by the pick last night. If they had taken any of a half dozen or so players that I had read about and seen play a (tiny) bit I would have been really happy and excited. My “binky” these past couple of months was/is Travis Jones.

So this morning I started thinking about why I had the reaction I did. This is hardly a new scenario, we’ve seen BB go against the seeming prevailing opinions every year, sometimes with expectedly poor results (e.g., Jordan Richards), sometimes unexpectedly great results (e.g., Richard Seymour) but usually with debatable results. (e.g., Tavon Wilson).

I’ve come to the conclusion that I spent the last almost 4 months obsessing over all this information out there about draft ratings and rankings that may be accurate at a high level for the league but has never been accurate at all for BB’s Pats. I love spending time reading, watching, doing mock drafts, and participating in this forum but the truth is all that is provably so far from the information and variables that BB has to weigh that it becomes a setup for disappointment more often than not.

So for me, and I hope for others here, today is an opportunity to forget about what the “pros” put out there and our own inaccurate perspective and try to be optimistic about the guys that come onboard.

 

[mgteich]

The trade back was exactly what they should have done. It’s what I was calling for before the 21st was traded.

The pick itself will be judged in years to come. I had strange ranked as one of the best OG’s on my big board.

I didn’t see it coming, thought OT was going to be the pick. But the player himself is a great prospect. Obviously they’re secure with their OT depth.

Yes, we need OT depth as an upgrade to Herron.

We much MORE needed as upgrade to Ferentz, Desjarlais and Sherman (and Hambright) as our 3 IOLS in addition to Onwenu and Andrews.

 

[Rob0729]

I like the trade back to 29 I think we received great value for the trade. The issue is the pick itself. Do I think Strange will be a day 1 starter, yes, will he be good, I think so, I just think they could have gotten more value at 29 than a guard and there were good defensive options still there.

Now I know the draft isn't done yet and we still have more picks left, so lets see what we do, but if I'm being honest, I was "shocked" by the pick.

This is my take. I still think they could have gotten him in the second round even if they had to trade up a bit.

But we really don't know if there really was all that much better defensive option. We think there are. But even the people who watch college football religiously don't actually scout the players and only know from what they see on TV. And most of probably don't even do that considering college football ratings in this area. Belichick could right that Strange was the best player available for the Pats needs. I don't think he is, but he could be right.

 

[Wozzy]

Yes, we need OT depth as an upgrade to Herron.

We much MORE needed as upgrade to Ferentz, Desjarlais and Sherman (and Hambright) as our 3 IOLS in addition to Onwenu and Andrews.

I think this pick speaks to their OL room and possibly what they think about Onwenu.

They’re probably very comfortable with either Herron or Cajuste at OT and/or think Onwenu is a future offensive tackle… which seems very possible. The guy is similar to Wynn in that he isn’t very tall but is uber athletic and has really long arms.

 

[mgteich]

One of those 3rds plus the extra 4th can become an additional 2nd. Then it becomes Johnson OR Strange plus our 3rd plus an additional 2nd round talent.

The "point value" of our two 3rd is almost exactly equal to Pick 63, KC's pick one from the bottom of the 2nd.

 

[Ross12]

The "point value" of our two 3rd is almost exactly equal to Pick 63, KC's pick one from the bottom of the 2nd.

Thanks, sounds like I'm misjudging pick value then if a 3rd+4th wouldn't equal a low 2nd. Still, our two low 3rds equaling a low 2nd is close.

 

[Rob0729]

Like many of us here I was “shocked and chagrined “ by the pick last night. If they had taken any of a half dozen or so players that I had read about and seen play a (tiny) bit I would have been really happy and excited. My “binky” these past couple of months was/is Travis Jones.

So this morning I started thinking about why I had the reaction I did. This is hardly a new scenario, we’ve seen BB go against the seeming prevailing opinions every year, sometimes with expectedly poor results (e.g., Jordan Richards), sometimes unexpectedly great results (e.g., Richard Seymour) but usually with debatable results. (e.g., Tavon Wilson).

I’ve come to the conclusion that I spent the last almost 4 months obsessing over all this information out there about draft ratings and rankings that may be accurate at a high level for the league but has never been accurate at all for BB’s Pats. I love spending time reading, watching, doing mock drafts, and participating in this forum but the truth is all that is provably so far from the information and variables that BB has to weigh that it becomes a setup for disappointment more often than not.

So for me, and I hope for others here, today is an opportunity to forget about what the “pros” put out there and our own inaccurate perspective and try to be optimistic about the guys that come onboard.

The good news is Belichick has been more successful going against the grain early in the draft with o-linemen than other positions. Both Mankins and Vollmer were those picks that were considered universally reach picks. I could be wrong, but I think Solder was considered a big reach too.

 

[stinkypete]

I was as shocked as everyone else, but I don't hate the pick.

IOL is typically a low value position for the first round. Conventional wisdom says that in a normal draft, you don't pass up high end talent at WR, CB or LB for an IOL.

This is not a conventional wisdom draft. The word heading into this draft was that there were *maybe* 15 first round talents on the entire board. Everyone is a question mark. Some pre-draft analyses suggested that this is the year to take a high-floor player at a low value position over a low-floor player at a high value position.

It amounts to this, would you rather have a 1st round bust at CB, a part time LB, or a five year starter at guard? Bill's betting that he's got himself a five year starter.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

I am not a draftnik and I probably do rely too much on what ESPN and CBS is saying is the "best player available". When NE was on the clock, Strange was not on page 1 of their BPA lists. Or page 2. Or page 3...

NE usually evaluates linemen well, though, so I guess I will trust the system. I am hoping for sexier picks tonight.

 

[TheRainMaker]

The good news is Belichick has been more successful going against the grain early in the draft with o-linemen than other positions. Both Mankins and Vollmer were those picks that were considered universally reach picks. I could be wrong, but I think Solder was considered a big reach too.

No on Solder. He was projected right about where the Pats took him. He was frequently mocked to the Pats as well. No surprise there.

 

[StanleyGrogan]

This whole season has been a return to normality both in terms of free agency and draft after crazy free agency last season and a slam dunk 1st round pick. After the initial slack jaw "who?" moment I reconciled that this is what we always do.

 

[Rob0729]

No on Solder. He was projected right about where the Pats took him.

Thanks, I can't remember on that one.

 

[Ring 6]

OPTION 4
Don't trade your Pro Bowl Guard for a bag of magic beans

We didn’t trade a pro bowl guard. No matter how many times you say that Mason has not earned a pro bowl.
And we replaced Mason with Onwenu. This pick is for LG substantially upgrading the JAG Karras.

 

[Ring 6]

Two time All Pro, which everyone knows is a higher honor than the Pro Bowl.

Shaq Mason Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Shaq Mason. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Wtf are you talking about. He was never all pro either.
That website puts a + for all pro next to the season and a * for pro bowl. He has none of either.

Perhaps when you realize you overrate him you will understand things better.

 

[Rob0729]

Two time All Pro, which everyone knows is a higher honor than the Pro Bowl.

Shaq Mason Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Shaq Mason. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Mason hasn't won an individual award since he was second team All ACC in 2014. He was never a Pro Bowler or All Pro. You can definitely that in a few years it was a slight that he didn't get the award, but he never won anything other than the two Super Bowl rings he has.

 

[mgteich]

We didn’t trade a pro bowl guard. No matter how many times you say that Mason has not earned a pro bowl.
And we replaced Mason with Onwenu. This pick is for LG substantially upgrading the JAG Karras.

And we are better off on the right side, being able to finally start Onwenu and Brown (and block the sun).

Mason was on his last year, and we saved lots of cap space by trading him away.
==========================
I don't think that we are done at OG, but Strange instead of Ferentz is a good start. We still need 2 IOL's; hopefully Dejarlais in one.

 

[Wozzy]

The perception of “draft value” is exactly that… perception.

Team’s big boards look at lot different than Mel Kipers… who has every single player on it… good and bad.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

What this move says:
- that BB's nervous about the interior OL in 2022, not just for future years
- that plan A was probably to land Zion or Green at 21
- that he had Cole as his #3 OG. I think he reminds him of Stephen Neal
- that he felt he may go between 29 and 54, together with possibly not being able to find a partner to trade down from 29 to say 38
- that he's comfortable with his front line DB's, otherwise he'd have taken either McDuffie at 21 or Hill at 29

 

[Brotherblues]

If Strange is our #3 guard, who's #2 (assuming #1 is Onwenu)?

I think you're misinterpreting and it was meant that he's the #3 guard on their draft board. He is now the front runner to start at LG in 2022.