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On Saturday, an executive with a team owning a top-10 selection said, “This isn’t going to be a normal draft. Everybody’s panicking.”
The bottom-feeding teams atop the draft are uneasy because most personnel people read the draft in much the same way. In effect, there is no elite, can’t-miss player to pick first.
In the last month, I’ve polled 17 personnel men asking them for their choice as the best player in the draft. Given the blue-chip void, one would think the increasingly valuable wide receiver position might swoop in and lead off the draft for the first time since Keyshawn Johnson went to the Jets in 1996.
Five players from three different positions garnered votes as the draft’s supreme player. Tellingly, wide receiver was a position that got shut out.
“There’s an abundance of guys but I don’t see a Ja’Marr Chase, somebody like that,” another AFC scout said. “There’s no Calvin Johnson’s, no Julio Jones’, nobody like that.”
“You’d certainly like bigger than (Chris) Olave, Jameson Williams, Garrett Wilson, (Jahan) Dotson,” another AFC exec said. “They’re smaller guys. You get a bigger guy with (Drake) London, but you give up the speed. You hope the separation quickness is good enough, which I think it is. (Treylon) Burks is not a real polished receiver but he can do a lot of different things with the ball. If you’re going to be a smaller guy these guys at least have the speed and the separation quickness you need at a really high level.”
The aforementioned six players finished as the leading vote-getters in a poll of 16 personnel people. Each was asked to rank the receivers on a 1-2-3-4-5 basis. A first-place vote was worth 5 points, a second counted 4 and so on.
Scouts were every bit as uncertain about the order of wide receivers as they were concerning the top of the draft.
Wilson, of Ohio State, led with a point total of 57 that included four first-place votes. Williams, of Alabama by way of Ohio State, was next with 56 (five firsts). Right behind were Olave, another Buckeye, with 47 (three firsts) and Southern California’s London with 46 (three firsts).
“You could start talking about any of them (from) like 15 down,” said an AFC scout. “There really aren’t a lot of legitimate No. 1 wideouts (in the league). Not a lot of Davante Adams. But Williams, Olave and Wilson are legitimate win-with starters. I don’t see Olave or Wilson in a league with Davante Adams or a Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones or Ja’Marr Chase.”
Rounding out the vote were Burks, of Arkansas, with 18 points (one first), Penn State’s Dotson with eight, Western Michigan’s Skyy Moore with four and two players, Alabama’s John Metchie and Baylor’s Tyquan Thornton, each with two.
“There’s no transcendent player,” another AFC scout said. “None of these guys tested crazy.”
Burks, who at 224 is 11 pounds heavier than London, is considered a risky pick. When scouts were asked which of the top wideouts had the best chance to bust, the vote was 7 ½ for Burks, three for London and Williams, two for Olave and one-half for Dotson.
Wilson (5-11 ½, 184), Williams (6-1 ½, 180), Olave (6-0 ½, 185), Dotson (5-10 ½, 181), Moore (5-9 ½, 191) and Metchie (5-11, 189) are on the slight if not frail side. In addition, both Williams and Metchie underwent reconstructive knee surgery late in the season.
Probably the two best wide receivers in 2021 were Cooper Kupp (6-1 ½, 203, 4.60) and Adams (6-1, 214, 4.55). Two of the hottest younger players are Justin Jefferson (6-1, 202, 4.47) and Chase (6-0 ½, 201, 4.34).
“I don’t think people realize how big the good NFL receivers are,” an AFC scout said. “We have a data base right in front of us. There just aren’t a ton of successful receivers that are under 185 pounds. You have to be a really good player to play at that size.”
An NFC exec countered by using the examples of Stefon Diggs (6-0, 193, 4.43) and Odell Beckham (5-11, 196, 4.40).
“Everybody says you need a big, gigantic guy in the league,” he said. “There’s plenty of good players that are not huge guys.”
The AFC man wasn’t convinced.
“Speed guys have a place if they get to the right team and right system,” he continued. “They can be effective. But it’s a physical game. Look at the corners people are drafting. The corners are bigger and faster. When those guys get their hands on them the speed doesn’t show the same way it does in college.”
Among the top 25 in career receiving yards are five players with dimensions not far from the majority this year. The group includes Hall of Famers Isaac Bruce (5-11 ½, 173, 4.53), Marvin Harrison (6-0, 180, 4.29) and Andre Reed (6-1 ½, 185, 4.55), and Reggie Wayne (5-11 ½, 194, 4.55) and Jimmy Smith (6-0 ½, 200, 4.51).
From the Johnson-Jones branch are Hall of Famers Michael Irvin (6-1 ½, 200, 4.55), Randy Moss (6-3 ½, 200, 4.42), Terrell Owens (6-3, 211, 4.55) and Jerry Rice (6-2, 195, 4.58).
Of this class of wideouts, an AFC exec said, “They’re very slight and they’re fast. What we’re looking for are three guys that can play all three spots and pinball around.”
At least the failure rate at the position has slowed. Of the 11 wideouts selected in Round 1 the past two years, just one can be relegated to the bust heap. In the 10 drafts before that (2010-’19), by conservative judgment 35% (12 of 34) of the first-rounders deserve the dreaded ‘B’ for their chests.
