OT: Russell Wilson traded to Denver

[Tottie]

That's an interesting take that the chaos is more of a league-wide trend rather than just a Wilson trend.

I rarely saw Wilson sustain drives last year. It seems like it's always been a boom-or-bust thing with him, where the team does absolutely nothing for much the game but then hits a few huge plays for all their yardage and points. Maybe it's just confirmation bias in watching him, but it really seems like he doesn't target those 8-12 yard passes as much as other players. So much of his game depends on broken plays and a backyard football style of play.

I think he's still good. You just have to look at the alternatives; there's no way in hell Denver is winning with a Keenum or Bridgewater type of QB. It will be fun for fans to see Wilson in Denver, and that division might be the best of the salary cap era.

It would be very interesting to see advanced stats on short to intermediate throws for Wilson. You know alot more about QBs than me but he looks like the anti Brady in the sense that he can't do timing throws. He can't anticipate. Somehow though he can throw high balloon arcing throws without having safeties picking them off. He has some serious downfield ability on broken plays.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

It would be very interesting to see advanced stats on short to intermediate throws for Wilson. You know alot more about QBs than me but he looks like the anti Brady in the sense that he can't do timing throws. He can't anticipate. Somehow though he can throw high balloon arcing throws without having safeties picking them off. He has some serious downfield ability on broken plays.

That's exactly what I see. A normal, mid-range throw is like an offspeed pitch for him.

 

[lancerman]

I wonder if the Pats kicked the tires at all on Wilson.

No point. Wilson had to waive a no trade clause and he wasn’t coming to a team with no receivers

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I wonder if the Pats kicked the tires at all on Wilson.

zero chance BIll would pay anyone $40 million +...

 

[lancerman]

zero chance BIll would pay anyone $40 million +...

40 million is soon going to be a QB standard. The cap is going up. If Bill doesn’t want to pay that, he’s not going to win any more Super Bowls.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

 

[jah]

Hmmm. I don't know if this is that great a move for Denver, or that big a threat to everyone in the AFC. Have you watched Wilson lately? Very slow start the last two years and very inconsistent play overall. I guess we'll see what happens.

They might be a playoff team now considering they were already fairly close, but I agree that Wilson is far from a sure thing to be the guy we remember from half a decade ago.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

40 million is soon going to be a QB standard. The cap is going up. If Bill doesn’t want to pay that, he’s not going to win any more Super Bowls.

Maybe at some point, but right now, Bill doesn't have anyone on the roster with a cap hit over $16 million...

 

[lancerman]

Maybe at some point, but right now, Bill doesn't have anyone on the roster with a cap hit over $16 million...

That’s fine. But Tom Brady taking team deals later on isn’t happening again so he’s going to have to get used to paying for a QB or he’s going to spend the rest of his career having respectable but not dangerous teams. If Mac pans out, Mac’s agent is going to ask for a market resetting contract, and he’ll get it here or somewhere else

 

[ausbacker]

Improvement for Denver sure but I'm not all that high on Wilson, seems to be more name and reputation these days than wins.

 

[crawhammer]

As of right now (and that's obviously a tremendously important point), there are 5 AFC teams that are clearly above the rest:


Chiefs
Bills
Bengals
Broncos
Titans

Who is the Titan's quarterback? If it's still Tannehill then I'm leaving them off this list.

I wouldn't necessarily agree with the Broncos either because that division is going to knock each other around. I'd say KC is probably the one team from the West that I would call a lock to win 12 games.

I think the SB appearance has the Bengals overrated at this point. Baltimore or Pittsburg could easily win that division next season.

A this point I would say a Chiefs vs Bills AFCCG is inevitable for next season.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

That’s fine. But Tom Brady taking team deals later on isn’t happening again so he’s going to have to get used to paying for a QB or he’s going to spend the rest of his career having respectable but not dangerous teams. If Mac pans out, Mac’s agent is going to ask for a market resetting contract, and he’ll get it here or somewhere else

Bill may not even be around when that happens…

 

[crawhammer]

Improvement for Denver sure but I'm not all that high on Wilson, seems to be more name and reputation these days than wins.

I don't really want to defend Wilson, after he literally threw away a SB, but he finished below .500 once in 10 seasons. He's one of only four quarterbacks in the history of the league to have a career passer rating over 100. He's only 33... he may have 5 (or more) elite seasons left.

 

[Deus Irae]

Who is the Titan's quarterback? If it's still Tannehill then I'm leaving them off this list.

I wouldn't necessarily agree with the Broncos either because that division is going to knock each other around. I'd say KC is probably the one team from the West that I would call a lock to win 12 games.

I think the SB appearance has the Bengals overrated at this point. Baltimore or Pittsburg could easily win that division next season.

A this point I would say a Chiefs vs Bills AFCCG is inevitable for next season.

The Titans were the AFC's #1 seed even with missing Henry and their wideouts for a big chunk of the season. They've been a playoff team in 4 of the last 5 seasons. They've won 11 and 12 games in the past two seasons.


Even with Tannehill, they're a cut above.



Until you acknowledge that, there's no sense even discussing the others.

 

[farn]

The Titans were the AFC's #1 seed even with missing Henry and their wideouts for a big chunk of the season. They've been a playoff team in 4 of the last 5 seasons. They've won 11 and 12 games in the past two seasons.


Even with Tannehill, they're a cut above.



Until you acknowledge that, there's no sense even discussing the others.

While true, and « anything can happen » I tend to agree that the titans aren’t a real threat to win the SB. Not as currently constituted.

 

[crawhammer]

If Mac pans out, Mac’s agent is going to ask for a market resetting contract, and he’ll get it here or somewhere else

Is that a realistic trajectory for Jones? Resetting the quarterback market? I think the bar's lower than that.

 

[crawhammer]

The Titans were the AFC's #1 seed even with missing Henry and their wideouts for a big chunk of the season. They've been a playoff team in 4 of the last 5 seasons. They've won 11 and 12 games in the past two seasons.


Even with Tannehill, they're a cut above.



Until you acknowledge that, there's no sense even discussing the others.

You're talking about being "clearly above" the rest of the conference. Tannehill has been awful in the last two postseasons... he singlehandedly lost that game to Cincinnati. If you can't trust your quarterback in the biggest game(s) of the season then you're kind of screwed.

My general rule is if you don't have an elite quarterback then you're probably not an elite team. Obviously it's possible to win without one but you need to be exceptional in other areas or you need to have an all-time elite defense like the 2000 Ravens, 2002 Bucs (who also had a QB having his best season by far), or the 2015 Broncos (who had a broken down HOF QB).

Of the remaining 19 SB winning teams since 2000, 16 had HOF quarterbacks... I'm excluding Joe Flacco (who had phenomenal postseason in '12), Nick Foles (we know the story there), and Matthew Stafford (who probably will be a HOF quarterback by the end of his career). I'm putting Eli Manning (2) in the HOF for the two incredible postseasons. Roethlisberger (2), P. Manning (2), Brees (1), Rodgers (1), Wilson (1), Mahomes (1) and Brady (7) are all obvious HOFers.

Even still excluding P. Manning from 2015, if you go back 30 years, 24 (80%) of the Super Bowl winning quarterbacks are HOFers.

 

[Ross12]

On one hand, he's a bit on the older side at 30. On the other hand, he seems like such a great fit for the NE offense, and his cap hits are very low once you take the signing bonus prorations out, which would be Seattle's responsibility. Cap hit of like $3M in '22 and $9M in '23 for NE if they acquired him, then about $15M each of the two years after that. Makes the "average" salary about $10M a year, very palatable. The problem of course is that Seattle would eat a ton of dead money trading him, so they probably want a high pick.

 

[TheRainMaker]

AFC West will be really tough and could remind us of the late 90's AFC East which was a gauntlet.

 

[Deus Irae]

You're talking about being "clearly above" the rest of the conference. Tannehill has been awful in the last two postseasons... he singlehandedly lost that game to Cincinnati. If you can't trust your quarterback in the biggest game(s) of the season then you're kind of screwed.

My general rule is if you don't have an elite quarterback then you're probably not an elite team. Obviously it's possible to win without one but you need to be exceptional in other areas or you need to have an all-time elite defense like the 2000 Ravens, 2002 Bucs (who also had a QB having his best season by far), or the 2015 Broncos (who had a broken down HOF QB).

Of the remaining 19 SB winning teams since 2000, 16 had HOF quarterbacks... I'm excluding Joe Flacco (who had phenomenal postseason in '12), Nick Foles (we know the story there), and Matthew Stafford (who probably will be a HOF quarterback by the end of his career). I'm putting Eli Manning (2) in the HOF for the two incredible postseasons. Roethlisberger (2), P. Manning (2), Brees (1), Rodgers (1), Wilson (1), Mahomes (1) and Brady (7) are all obvious HOFers.

Even still excluding P. Manning from 2015, if you go back 30 years, 24 (80%) of the Super Bowl winning quarterbacks are HOFers.

Your argument makes absolutely no sense at all.