Was WR Nelson Agholor Misused in the Patriots Offense (how to fix), or just a Terrible Contract/Signing from the Start?

[Ring 6]

People that cherry pick stats to backup their argument while ignoring what the product on the field looks like aren't worth arguing with. I don't care what rank the offense finished with. Watching them play against good teams or try to score points when they needed to showed me all I needed to see. The Jets games and the Jags game are going to skew the final standings as well. Congrats. We can score a bunch of points on the two worst teams in the league. That doesn't really make me feel better. The offense was average to below average at times and I am not sounding the alarms with a rookie QB and all the new faces in the mix. If the offense still looks like this by the end of the next it will be a problem.

Using an entire sample size is not cherry picking, but using a couple of games, like you are doing, in fact is.
Every team does better against bad teams than good.
If you want to “back up an argument” then you need to account for your assumptions.
Such as: that team is only good because it played bad teams.
That is clearly an opinion and without substantiating means nothing.
The patriots were the 6th highest scoring teams. If your argument is they are an anomaly that scored more points against bad teams and the offenses that were lower than 6th dominated good teams then you would need to test that assumption.
You will find it doesn’t stand up to the test.

Look the Patriots didn’t have the best offense in the NFL and didn’t win the SB. So whatever they are wasn’t good enough, at the least bad means worse than half and it’s just not a reasonable argument to say that, and then stomp your feet and say you don’t care about facts you just know it.

 

[Ring 6]

this year, yes.......this team could win close games with a good team but needed the defense to step up

moving forward the offense DOES need to evolve and improve, however

The pressure on the defenses to step up was out there by the offense not scoring more.
It’s a team effort. This team when facing the best typically was very competitive (except a couple games) but fell short, and that was on both sides of the ball.

 

[203Pat]

Using an entire sample size is not cherry picking, but using a couple of games, like you are doing, in fact is.
Every team does better against bad teams than good.
If you want to “back up an argument” then you need to account for your assumptions.
Such as: that team is only good because it played bad teams.
That is clearly an opinion and without substantiating means nothing.
The patriots were the 6th highest scoring teams. If your argument is they are an anomaly that scored more points against bad teams and the offenses that were lower than 6th dominated good teams then you would need to test that assumption.
You will find it doesn’t stand up to the test.

Look the Patriots didn’t have the best offense in the NFL and didn’t win the SB. So whatever they are wasn’t good enough, at the least bad means worse than half and it’s just not a reasonable argument to say that, and then stomp your feet and say you don’t care about facts you just know it.

If you watched all 18 games this offense played and think it was any better than average I don't know what to tell you. Mac played pretty well for a rookie but if you strictly view him as a starting QB he was pretty much right in the middle of the pack.

 

[Wozzy]

We can operate from hope things change, but what is needed is a receiver to consistently get open short, while almost never dropping the ball.

Bourne
2018 - caught 42 passes dropped 5
2019 - caught 30 dropped 3
2020 - caught 49 dropped 6

Wilkerson could not make the team strictly because of drops. Even in his career game he dropped a TD pass.

Meyers, maybe hope, but doesn't get open enough and still runs the wrong routes. There's a reason it took longer for him to get a receiving TD than anyone.

Gunner might be the best shot, but it's still only a hope.

This isn't about misjudging Mac. Everyone in the group (except maybe Gunner) is an NFL receiver, but none display the qualities of former Patriot players in this role.

Do you think Mac Jones will improve in year two?

Look at Josh Allen’s rookie stats, look at Matt Staffords… they weren’t good, Allen was terrible. Buffalo fans and media wrote him off as a bust.

By midseason this year people were talking about Mac and holding him to a standard like he was a ten year vet. He has a lot of room to improve, he can get stronger and better.

Next year presumably Josh McDaniels will better understand his weapons and how to utilize them. The entire team hopefully will take their collapse at the end of the season as a learning experience and not celebrate their championship in week 13. Hopefully they’ll be more efficient, make fewer mistakes.

Josh Allen became much better in year two with roughly the same weapons. He became much better in year 3 when they added Diggs but he was better across the board… it wasn’t because they added a weapon.

The weapons in New England in 2021 isn’t why they lost in the playoffs.

 

[Froob]

We only save 3.8M by cutting him, we save like 9m if we can trade him. If we can't get the Raiders or somebody to take him, just keep him.

 

[Ring 6]

If you watched all 18 games this offense played and think it was any better than average I don't know what to tell you. Mac played pretty well for a rookie but if you strictly view him as a starting QB he was pretty much right in the middle of the pack.

Then your idea of average is wrong.
They score about 70 more points than the average.
They were 2nd in the % of drives they scored points on.
If they were average then 10 teams who couldn’t score as many points would have to somehow be better.
How are you better if you score less points?

Average doesn’t mean less than what you think it should be.
Average means middle of the pack, worse than as many peers as you are better than.
You just keep calling it that without offering any comparison whatsoever to the other 31 teams.
The things that you think indicate they are average are bigger problems for most of the 26 or so offenses that performed worse.

 

[Ring 6]

We only save 3.8M by cutting him, we save like 9m if we can trade him. If we can't get the Raiders or somebody to take him, just keep him.

How can you save more by trading than cutting?

 

[Froob]

How can you save more by trading than cutting?

I'm not a cap expert, but Miguel tweeted it a while back that you can save roughly 9M in a trade.

 

[203Pat]

Then your idea of average is wrong.
They score about 70 more points than the average.
They were 2nd in the % of drives they scored points on.
If they were average then 10 teams who couldn’t score as many points would have to somehow be better.
How are you better if you score less points?

Average doesn’t mean less than what you think it should be.
Average means middle of the pack, worse than as many peers as you are better than.
You just keep calling it that without offering any comparison whatsoever to the other 31 teams.
The things that you think indicate they are average are bigger problems for most of the 26 or so offenses that performed worse.

Okay Andy.

 

[yukon cornelius]

The pressure on the defenses to step up was out there by the offense not scoring more.
It’s a team effort. This team when facing the best typically was very competitive (except a couple games) but fell short, and that was on both sides of the ball.

no doubt........but it was clear by the roster design and gameplan approach that this year, with a rookie QB, the plan was ball control/efficient/risk aversion on offense......chew up clock, limit opponents possessions, score TDs when they get in the red zone while limiting potential for rookie mistakes on offense.......and using the defense to force longer drives/limit opponents to FGs in the red zone, create turnovers........this was not a team designed to counter speed with speed, to get into shoot outs/track meets with other teams, by design

no doubt there were failings on both sides of the ball.......for 31 teams there's always failings......but my argument is simply this is how the team was designed........the inability to match offensive score for offensive score was not as simple as 'we didn't have the offensive personnel', it was more having to do with how this offense was designed out of the gate (mostly because of rookie QB/year one of a rebuild)

 

[Ring 6]

Okay Andy.

That’s one way to respond. Another would be with facts to support what you think.

 

[Froob]

How can you save more by trading than cutting?

Looked into it some more...I believe we save more because the trading team pays the signing bonus (pro-rated, which would be 5M for next season). Patriots still on the hook for half of the guaranteed money (5M), trading team pays next year's salary 3.8M + signing bonus pro rated 5M.

 

[Ring 6]

no doubt........but it was clear by the roster design and gameplan approach that this year, with a rookie QB, the plan was ball control/efficient/risk aversion on offense......chew up clock, limit opponents possessions, score TDs when they get in the red zone while limiting potential for rookie mistakes on offense.......and using the defense to force longer drives/limit opponents to FGs in the red zone, create turnovers........this was not a team designed to counter speed with speed, to get into shoot outs/track meets with other teams, by design

no doubt there were failings on both sides of the ball.......for 31 teams there's always failings......but my argument is simply this is how the team was designed........the inability to match offensive score for offensive score was not as simple as 'we didn't have the offensive personnel', it was more having to do with how this offense was designed out of the gate (mostly because of rookie QB/year one of a rebuild)

If you look at the losses though, most often the failing of the offense wasn’t not being able to get into a shootout, but it was from not scoring enough until they fell behind.

 

[203Pat]

That’s one way to respond. Another would be with facts to support what you think.

Andy you have sucked me into endless back and forth's about a dozen times. You have a unique way of pulling people into an argument and never letting them out so I will respectfully step back.

 

[Ring 6]

Looked into it some more...I believe we save more because the trading team pays the signing bonus (pro-rated, which would be 5M for next season). Patriots still on the hook for half of the guaranteed money (5M), trading team pays next year's salary 3.8M + signing bonus pro rated 5M.

No the signing bonus stays with the original team. Only the salary transfers to the new team, which is why I asked because the money that goes away seems like it would be the same if cut or traded and the dead money would be the same.
What player are we talking about?

 

[Froob]

No the signing bonus stays with the original team. Only the salary transfers to the new team, which is why I asked because the money that goes away seems like it would be the same if cut or traded and the dead money would be the same.
What player are we talking about?

Nelson Agholor. Might need to ask @Miguel to explain because like I said, I'm very much a salary cap amateur. I had thought we were on the hook for that 10M until Migeul tweeted othewise.

 

[Ring 6]

Andy you have sucked me into endless back and forth's about a dozen times. You have a unique way of pulling people into an argument and never letting them out so I will respectfully step back.

Well I’m not sure what to say if you make a statement that I disagree with and I give facts to back it up and you think that is sucking you in. If you don’t want to back up what you think then you shouldnt respond to a factual disagreement.

 

[yukon cornelius]

If you look at the losses though, most often the failing of the offense wasn’t not being able to get into a shootout, but it was from not scoring enough until they fell behind.

it seems at times there was stubbornness to not open up the playbook until they were behind.......i think for much of the season their belief was if they opened up too much they would open themselves up to more mistakes/TOs.......and Mac at times DID prove that.......but he also proved that when the chips were down, he could make plays......i think if they looked at playcalling in retrospect they might say they COULD have tried to open things up for Mac a little more.......I think they were playing the long game development wise, and I'm ok with that

 

[203Pat]

Well I’m not sure what to say if you make a statement that I disagree with and I give facts to back it up and you think that is sucking you in. If you don’t want to back up what you think then you shouldnt respond to a factual disagreement.

 

[Ring 6]

Nelson Agholor. Might need to ask @Miguel to explain because like I said, I'm very much a salary cap amateur. I had thought we were on the hook for that 10M until Migeul tweeted othewise.

The team that signs the contract is always responsible for he hit of the signing bonus.
So according to over the cap if he is cut the dead money is 10 mill and the savings is 5 mill.
The sb was 10 mill and 5 hit the cap last year so 5 is left.
HOWEVER his 2022 salary of 10 mill is guaranteed for 5 mill.
So if you cut him you have to pay him the 5, if you trade him the other team does.