Game Day Thread Official Pats at Bills Playoff Pregame Discussion Thread

[Mack Herron]

Gonna be freezing cold. Second level Bills defenders gonna see a steady diet of Harris and Stevenson coming at them and in a test of wills I take the locomotive over the bug. Bills offense goes through Allen but his game will be somewhat neutralized by the cold. D has to keep him in the pocket and make him try to throw a brick. I understand the spread but it isn’t difficult to imagine a winning scenario.

 

[captain stone]

************ go get a drink.

There is plenty to be excited about. Youth at Qb, RB, o-line, dline, Duggers, JC, BB..

The OL? How about they give their small, breaking-down QB a consistent pocket more than once per series of downs, if not more than once per possession? Having one of their very best lineman on the field for Every Single Snap would be nice too...

The DL? Please...

I certainly hope that Dugg's available on Sunday, being a Playoff Game and all...

Who else is at CB besides JC?

And what position does this BB dude play?

 

[RobertWeathers]

The OL? How about they give their small, breaking-down QB a consistent pocket more than once per series of downs, if not more than once per possession? Having one of their very best lineman on the field for Every Single Snap would be nice too...

The DL? Please...

I certainly hope that Dugg's available on Sunday, being a Playoff Game and all...

Who else is at CB besides JC?

And what position does this BB dude play?

Go follow another team then. Christ you are miserable.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

We know from the 2014 AFCCG that the balls lost <1 psi of pressure in 51 degree weather. I'm too lazy to figure out how much pressure they'll lose in 8 degree weather (@Palm Beach Pats Fan) but it would be substantially more.

I wonder if they just inflate the balls outside instead of in the lockeroom if the loss of pressure would be less dramatic. I would think so and maybe that's what they've been doing.

Regardless, the cold weather probably will affect Mac more than Allen given Bills have played back to back games at home in 25-deg and 34-deg weather. In contrast the Pats are coming from back to back games in 46-deg and 76-deg weather.

Martin Schmaltz' pressure calculator

physics.bu.edu

 

[palialka]

I think Buffalo has a better roster than us at every single position currently except for OL. I like to go with the eye test and the last game against Buffalo was a very thorough display that they are a cut above us. We couldn't really stop them from taking anything they wanted. That was the sort of game where the score was not an accurate representation of what transpired on the field. I'm surprised they are only 11-5 and I'll chalk that up to 2021 just being a strange season. The only thing that can stop the Bills is Josh Allen.

I'd feel a lot more confident about this game if our defense didn't do a disappearing act since the bye week. Our problems at LB/DE feel catastrophic and teams are enjoying exploiting it. We basically need to have a two score lead to force teams into playing into the strength of our defense. We're going to need perfect execution on offense to do that. Our margin for error is essentially zero.

To me this matchup feels like when we played the Broncos in the 2013-14 playoffs. Sure the records are similar, but the teams on the field right now are playing miles apart. Nevertheless, just as in that game against the Broncos I have no reason but to believe.

I agree with the majority of what you said…

I do think our RB rotation is substantially better than Buffalo’s although Singletary has been running hard of late.

Our secondary is also better, but not by a wide margin.

TEs hmmm…depends on Josh’s game plan

 

[catent]

Bryant has been terrible. Why do you think he is better than Williams? Did I misunderstand your post?

I recall Bryant having one bad game against BUF. Otherwise he has seemed more than fine in his role, perhaps exceeded expectations a bit.

"Terrible"? All the time? Not in my opinion.

 

[catent]

Is the book The expectations of Evan Lazar already out?

You really have something up yours about Lazar, huh?

As I said before, if you don't personally like him for whatever reason(s), fine, but this is his *professional job*, and I'd say he does a pretty good job at it (or, if nothing else, he makes a good faith effort to present thoughtful and researched information).

Why you repeatedly rag on the guy and his livelihood is beyond me.

 

[Ring 6]

Can you blame them? Pats have Nothing going for them on Either side of the LOS to give Anyone hope that a win is even possible, never mind probable... The talent, especially when considering its current overall state of health, isn't nearly good enough to overcome all of the coaching- and self-inflicted ****-ups that these dummies committed during their losses to Miami x2, Indy & Dallas, any two of which had they been wins would've given us the #1 seed on a silver platter; but Noooooo...

How does the team that is 6th in points scored, 2nd in points allowed, 2nd in % of possession scored on and in % of possessions allowing a score, #1 in red zone offense over the last 13 games, have nothing going for it on either side of the ball?

More importantly please reconcile how you can believe the committed “full-ups” to hand over games and should have been the 1 seed if they have nothing going for them on either side of the ball.
How could a team with nothing going for them be a 1 seed?

 

[Tunescribe]

heh...you think THIS is bad?...hang around and catch the Friday night shytshow...

What's happening Friday night?

 

[Ring 6]

Wait until about midnight Saturday when all the people posting how the team has no chance and sucks across the board start posting like the patriots winning makes them great by association. Then when they beat Tennessee and go to the AFCCG they will be signing their praises.

 

[Patsgofor4]

I went back and forth on calling that out. On the whole I agree but Moss and Singletary (especially) have been playing better as of late. In general the Bills offense just seems in rhythm. The emergence of Isiah McKenzie is probably a big factor.

Obviously I think Harris is the best but Rhamondre has some serious flaws. It was encouraging to see us throw to Harris four times last week. If he can become 2-dimensonal that will be huge.

Stop it. Harris, Stevenson PLUS Bolden are a far better crew than the Bills slapd*cks. Harris and Stevenson are both better than Singletary. Moss is such a stud that he was a health scratch for several games. To also ignore Bolden’s contribution this year is a slap in the face.

Henry > the vastly overrated Dawson Knox.

The notion that the Bills are much better than their record “but Covid” is also silly.

Luckily the Pats players and coaches themselves don’t share your “woe is me” defeatist (ie. p*ssy) attitude against the unstoppable Buffalo juggernaut. If the Pats finally play a disciplined, mistake-free game game, they have a good chance to win, especially given the weather.

 

[Tunescribe]

Can you blame them? Pats have Nothing going for them on Either side of the LOS to give Anyone hope that a win is even possible, never mind probable... The talent, especially when considering its current overall state of health, isn't nearly good enough to overcome all of the coaching- and self-inflicted ****-ups that these dummies committed during their losses to Miami x2, Indy & Dallas, any two of which had they been wins would've given us the #1 seed on a silver platter; but Noooooo...

The OL? How about they give their small, breaking-down QB a consistent pocket more than once per series of downs, if not more than once per possession? Having one of their very best lineman on the field for Every Single Snap would be nice too...

The DL? Please...

I certainly hope that Dugg's available on Sunday, being a Playoff Game and all...

Who else is at CB besides JC?

And what position does this BB dude play?

Forget about football, time for a general attitude adjustment. You and footie pajama guy FCB should get a nice cookie and some hot cocoa together. Maybe have a sleepover, read comic books, etc. Then in the morning someone might make you pancakes or waffles with lotsa syrup before going out to play in the snow. See, there's plenty to look forward to.

 

[Hyped]

I think Buffalo has a better roster than us at every single position currently except for OL. I like to go with the eye test and the last game against Buffalo was a very thorough display that they are a cut above us. We couldn't really stop them from taking anything they wanted. That was the sort of game where the score was not an accurate representation of what transpired on the field. I'm surprised they are only 11-5 and I'll chalk that up to 2021 just being a strange season. The only thing that can stop the Bills is Josh Allen.

I'd feel a lot more confident about this game if our defense didn't do a disappearing act since the bye week. Our problems at LB/DE feel catastrophic and teams are enjoying exploiting it. We basically need to have a two score lead to force teams into playing into the strength of our defense. We're going to need perfect execution on offense to do that. Our margin for error is essentially zero.

To me this matchup feels like when we played the Broncos in the 2013-14 playoffs. Sure the records are similar, but the teams on the field right now are playing miles apart. Nevertheless, just as in that game against the Broncos I have no reason but to believe.

Three comments:

- The week 16 game was a lot closer than the final score indicated If you ask me. We will adjust to what they did and likely have to readjust at half time. Our D has been so so since the bye week and we likely will not have Barmore nor Mills for this game. Myles Bryant and JJW are going to get snaps. But this will be an empty the tank type of game, IMO. I think some more aggression in spots will at least force a SINGLE PUNT. And hold up in the red zone….I believe it is realistic to keep Buffalo under 24 points.

- The D will be ready to go and do their part, but I agree that our offensive margin of error is zero. No turnovers, no taking negative yardage sacks, and no ten yard holding penalties.

- Those Denver teams we lost to in 2012-2015 weren’t better than us. Injuries were a major factor in those two AFC title games. That being said…the talent margin is thin between us and Buffalo.…we have seen worse….

 

[slash83]

Three comments:

- The week 16 game was a lot closer than the final score indicated If you ask me. We will adjust to what they did and likely have to readjust at half time. Our D has been so so since the bye week and we likely will not have Barmore nor Mills for this game. Myles Bryant and JJW are going to get snaps. But this will be an empty the tank type of game, IMO. I think some more aggression in spots will at least force a SINGLE PUNT. And hold up in the red zone….I believe it is realistic to keep Buffalo under 24 points.

- The D will be ready to go and do their part, but I agree that our offensive margin of error is zero. No turnovers, no taking negative yardage sacks, and no ten yard holding penalties.

- Those Denver teams we lost to in 2012-2015 weren’t better than us. Injuries were a major factor in those two AFC title games. That being said…the talent margin is thin between us and Buffalo.…we have seen worse….

Barmore reportedly practiced today without limitations so will see.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Can you blame them? Pats have Nothing going for them on Either side of the LOS to give Anyone hope that a win is even possible, never mind probable... The talent, especially when considering its current overall state of health, isn't nearly good enough to overcome all of the coaching- and self-inflicted ****-ups that these dummies committed during their losses to Miami x2, Indy & Dallas, any two of which had they been wins would've given us the #1 seed on a silver platter; but Noooooo...

 

[Tunescribe]

View attachment 39880

Wow, that's insightful.

 

[Tunescribe]

You're not even consistent. I've seen you b-tch about NKeal Harry. Not everyone has the same schizophrenia you have where some things are OK to criticize but then others you just don't want to talk about it.

Let's focus on something positive for a change, shall we? The Patriots offense averaged 28 points over the last four games. That Josh McDaniels at least is keeping up his end of the bargain, with a rookie quarterback no less.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Let's focus on something positive for a change, shall we? The Patriots offense averaged 28 points over the last four games. That Josh McDaniels at least is keeping up his end of the bargain, with a rookie quarterback no less.

Take out the bottom dweller Jaguar game and it's what, 21 pts a game? Yeah not too into celebrating going 1-3 over the last 4 games. It's apt to be worried. On the flip side if you don't even expect them to win then just enjoy the offseason in 4 days and I'll be rooting for the oc to get a new HC job this coming Monday

.

 

[gitgronked82]

Gonna be freezing cold. Second level Bills defenders gonna see a steady diet of Harris and Stevenson coming at them and in a test of wills I take the locomotive over the bug. Bills offense goes through Allen but his game will be somewhat neutralized by the cold. D has to keep him in the pocket and make him try to throw a brick. I understand the spread but it isn’t difficult to imagine a winning scenario.

This isn’t a critique of your post, which I think was was a good post.
I want to share my perspective in reference to “I understand the spread but it isn’t difficult to imagine a winning scenario”:
We opened at +4.5. We are currently +4 on the book I’m looking at. The way people are talking, if I hadn’t seen the spread, I’d guess somewhere in the +8.5 to +13 range.
+4 is a close call- that’s a game that really can go either way, though one team is a bit more likely to win than the other. But it wouldn’t even be appropriate to call a +4 dog winning a big a upset.
2018 AFCCG in Arrowhead: Pats +3. It was only a point different than this weekend. We felt like it was going to be a tough game, but not some extreme long shot.
2019 divisional vs titans: Pats -4.5. Was anyone shocked when we lost?
Super Bowl 36: Pats +14. Now THAT is an underdog.

If anyone believes it’s likely we’re going to win, that’s a perfectly reasonable belief, by the odds. We are small to medium underdogs on the road. I’d guess the underdog wins 30-40% of games where they’re +4. We can do this.

 

[GreenCow]

I agree with the majority of what you said…

I do think our RB rotation is substantially better than Buffalo’s although Singletary has been running hard of late.

Our secondary is also better, but not by a wide margin.

TEs hmmm…depends on Josh’s game plan

No offense, but in what universe is the Pats secondary better than the Bills? I’m not sure there is another team in the league with a secondary as good as the Bills.