Gilmore traded to Carolina

[Ring 6]

I wasn't talking about the past. I was talking about the future. Do we know what they offered him moving forward? What if NOTHING is what they offered him?

Bill has always been known to let go of some top players early rather than pay them later, but that philosophy seems to have led to more of the quality players leaving than before.

A 31 year old corner with a severe leg injury isn’t the type of long term investment that usually turns out well.

 

[Ring 6]

What nonsense.

So when we were spending $165m in FA we forgot we had to pay Gilmore $7m and now we were cash strapped and begging him to restructure and pissing him off to the point he needed to be traded. Meanwhile he’s playing out that existing contract in another team instead.

In what universe is Gilmore not worth $7m pro-rated for the rest of this season, even if he was injured.

This just feels like another massive Belichikian blunder.

The universe where he is sitting out injured.
How many game make of what quality are you expecting to get from him?

 

[1960Pats]

A 31 year old corner with a severe leg injury isn’t the type of long term investment that usually turns out well.

Neither does a 44 year old QB.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I said earlier that BB's gambits with Thuney and Gilmore didn't pan out. I know he wanted to keep Thuney - he loved Thuney. But he's got his price-point and a desperate KC (After that last Superbowl) outbid him. I think he wanted to extend Gilmore, but didn't anticipate the injury and now the holdout.

Why was Thuney “desperate” but J. Smith / H. Henry were not? You agree that, while expensive, Thuney is one of the top guards in football, yes? So the Chiefs spent top dollar for a top player at his position. We both know Smith and Henry were two of the most desperate, low value, offseason moves of the year, but I know I won’t get anywhere with you on that one.

To be clear, I agree that both Thuney and Gilmore wound up being mistakes. I'm just saying that the fans of any and every team in the league could make these same complaints year after year. Hindsight is easy.

When people criticize the moves in real-time, before the benefit of hindsight, they’re dismissed as being “whiny,” “want to complain about everything,” “are just mad about Brady.” Then after the moves turn out to be blunders for the (obvious) reasons given, then “Hindsight is easy.” Lol.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

What nonsense.

So when we were spending $165m in FA we forgot we had to pay Gilmore $7m and now we were cash strapped and begging him to restructure and pissing him off to the point he needed to be traded. Meanwhile he’s playing out that existing contract in another team instead.

In what universe is Gilmore not worth $7m pro-rated for the rest of this season, even if he was injured.

This just feels like another massive Belichikian blunder.

Blundering all the way to 9 AFC championships and 6 Super Bowl wins in the last 20 years. Drop your empty modifier, "massive," which, after all, is dimensionless as demonstrated by the lack of content to your post -- it's just emotion. No facts there. Just opinion and broadsides. What nonsense, Biffins proclaims, and all shall wither away before the blast of hot air. Oh then there's the modifier "Belichikian," well that is the name of the game for you lot, right? You're not evaluating the move, you're trashing a coach. Okay, so it "feels like" (emotional again, we should note - not it is, it just "feels like...") a blunder.

Now, your declaration that it's "nonsense" is predicated on the idea that we wanted to have cash to maneuver now, and you appear to think that's a "blunder" to want cash?

Should the Patriots spend less cash? Or wait, under new GM Biffins, will the Patriots spend less cash... so that they are never in a position where they let go of a guy who was good two years ago?

It looks to me like y'awl need complex **** to be easy, and that way you can tell yourself you're smart. You're not. You're just loud.

 

[catent]

They won the Superbowl played in January, 2017, lost the Superbowl played in 2018, and won the Superbowl played in 2019.

I mean, seriously. So, after that February, 2019 SB, you had a team full of guys who had played more games, longer season, grueling pressure for three straight years. And a team full of guys very likely a bit less hungry, because that's how humans operate. You also, for 3 straight years, had FAs who were going to get ABOVE market, as SB FAs almost always do (EDIT: and coaches!). It also means that for 3 straight years (and really, for 5, rolling in 2014 and 15), you had very deep VETERAN rosters, because that's what SB teams usually have. This also means lower draft picks, round after round (not counting the stolen ones).

Not a lot of rookies start on SB teams.

There's a price to pay for 5 years of that kind of NFL dominance, individually and as a team. Loosen the leash a bit here on BB and the Pats.

2019 fell apart with Gordon, AB, Sanu getting hurt, Brady having clearly had enough. They were still a playoff team, which many cities would kill for. They were trying to squeeze out one last run, but it fell apart - Gronk retiring before the season AFTER any half-decent replacement could be found; Gordon falling apart after 6 games; Antonio Brown bringing his freak show into town and completely screwing up in short order; Sanu getting hurt right after coming here.

2020 was a complete reset, more than typical with the opt-outs. It was all about cash, Yes, I think, in hindsight, that Thuney and Gilmore were errors. BB wanted to keep Thuney, but he broke the bank with a desperate SB favorite. Gilmore is a different story, as I believe BB was hoping to got another deal done with him and would have paid it if he held up to 2018 performance levels and hadn't gotten hurt.

The reset is over. That's why they brought in a new core group, hoping to rebuild that middle class hollowed by the 5-year run. And now have added the new centerpiece, who's a rookie.

If they're under .500 this year, that'll be disappointing. If they can't get to playoff contention next year, then it's time to think about shortening that leash. I think this is a pretty good football team that needs to correct a few things that seem correctable. Which is kind of remarkable given the turnover.

Thank you for the great post.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I was looking through a tick-tock (as in, a signing-by-signing rundown) of the FA signing binge, and it kind of tickled me to see right in the middle of all these 34m-guaranteed-over-4-years (etc.) deals...

Wednesday, March 17​

1:52 p.m.: The Patriots place a second-round tender of $3.38 million on restricted free-agent J.C. Jackson.

I have to thank New GM Biffins for getting me to look up the spree. It brings up the question of perspective.

The Patriots came up with a rebuilding strategy based on one year's cap implications. You can see how much they were spending in guaranteed money, and how much they are spending up front*. They are buying during a market dominated by a rare severe dip in NFL revenues.

*meaning, guaranteeing up front, whenever it comes due. They're spending in 2021 dollars is the point. Those might be deflated vs. future years, even accounting for the usual amount of cap inflation, because this year we saw the almost unheard of phenomenon of cap deflation.

Dip in revenues = lower cap. Lower cap means all teams will have less to spend this year relative to future years, barring equivalently depressed earnings. That means that right now, if you're buying years of guys in their most productive years, you're buying low. It's a multi-year stragegy, buying a lot of guys for 3-4 years, giving them what they want - the guarantee - and leveraging that desire against what the Patriots need, a rebuild done in today's dollars. Because they did this over two dozen acquisitions (some short term, some rehires for the short term, many longer-term gambles,) they're somewhat protected against the boom-or-bust phenomenon. But yeah, it could all flop. Has it yet? I don't think so.

The deeper game -- looking at a comparison of what money is worth this year vs. next, 2 years from now, 4 years from now -- is at least intriguing to me. I'd say it's darn likely to look good down the road, but we're not down the road yet.

As to whether we blow up the stadium because waaaaaaah Gilmore was good in 2019, sounds like something the checkers-players say while the chess players are doing their thing.

A little anecdote. Mrs. P and I went to the Ravens game in Baltimore in 2008 - the "blueprint game." Mrs. P got sick and we ended up walking out of the stadium and seeing it at a bar. Effin' tragic. Anyhoo that's not the anecdote. The anecdote is, there's some Baltimoron screaming about how of course the Pats win everything, they just buy all the players.

He was evidently unaware that all the teams not only play by the same rules, they spend to the same cap.

It seems like "terrible GM" Bill Belichick simultaneously makes the worst and the best moves, every time, of anybody in the league, depending on whether it's the other team's fans (so good he must be cheating) or our own (so terrible it's a miracle our guys can lace up their cleats.)

Truth is, it's money, football, and probability, and he seems to have a decent track record at those things.

oops, edit. The Ravens game in 2007, duh.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Team Cap Space: $7,237,189


Pretty good excuse, actually.

His Agent said he was signing with GB had he been released.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

So factoring in that if we were going to spend on Gilmore, it should be this year, if 2021 deflation theory holds, that means it looks like we really like the idea of negotiating with $3.38 million man JC Jackson rather than Gilmore the holdout. It's not like we couldnt conceivably do both, but it looks like we did not like what Gilmore was forcing.

If the cap deflation is an actual thing, it's a matter of how far apart they actually were, or how much they didn't like the prospects of 2021-and-beyond-Gilmore. Not only wouldn't we pay him, we wouldn't even pay him in 2021 (given our apparent 2021 philosophy.) Puts a fine point on it.

 

[Deus Irae]

His Agent said he was signing with GB had he been released.

Yes, and Adams had told him "call me" on Instagram or something, too. But the deal's a lot different when you're singing him as a FA after getting cut then when you're trading for him and his full salary.

 

[goheels22002]

Gilmore's gone. That's too bad, but his cap hit in 2021 after his most recent restructure just wasn't going to permit a raise in 2021. It was prudent not to extend him until the Patriots knew if he could still run with top-flight wideouts. I like the secondary as is, particularly with the way Adrian Philips and Kyle Dugger cover and bring the lumber.

I have several questions. Gilmore goes to Carolina after week four with a $5.767 million cap hit for 2022.
Is the trade contingent on passing a physical?
Were the Patriots able to put that full amount back on their cap?
@Deus Irae posted that the Patriots now have $7.2 million in cap space. Does that go down with the Jamie Collins signing?
If so, how much is left for any additional (OL?) signings?

Stephon Gilmore

Stephon Gilmore contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

 

[venecol]

OTC has Patriots dead money at $29M, 6th highest in the league. Only DET, PHI, CAR, LAR & NO are higher.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Gilmore's gone. That's too bad, but his cap hit in 2021 after his most recent restructure just wasn't going to permit a raise in 2021. It was prudent not to extend him until the Patriots knew if he could still run with top-flight wideouts. I like the secondary as is, particularly with the way Adrian Philips and Kyle Dugger cover and bring the lumber.

I have several questions. Gilmore goes to Carolina after week four with a $5.767 million cap hit for 2022.
Is the trade contingent on passing a physical?
Were the Patriots able to put that full amount back on their cap?
@Deus Irae posted that the Patriots now have $7.2 million in cap space. Does that go down with the Jamie Collins signing?
If so, how much is left for any additional (OL?) signings?

Stephon Gilmore

Stephon Gilmore contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

I asked the same thing about a physical. Someone on here said he took it yesterday or today.

Here's some stuff about Collins' deal w/the Lions, but I guess we have to make our own deal, since the Lions released rather than traded him. (Is that right? Anybody? Buehler?)

Patriots finalize deal with linebacker Jamie Collins

Jamie Collins returns for a third stint with New England.

www.patspulpit.com

The Detroit Lions released Collins on Sept. 28 following unsuccessful attempts to trade the 2015 Pro Bowler and second-team All-Pro. Collins stood in the second year of a three-year, $30 million contract that included $18 million guaranteed. He agreed to a restructure in the spring that converted $5 million of his $8.8 million base salary into a signing bonus while adding three voidable years.

So his $8.8m base this year would become $3.8m actually due in salary, I'ma say prorated to knock off 4/18, this year... but that would be if the Pats picked up his deal, and I think we have to wait for his new deal details.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Edit: deleted bc it was stoopit.

 

[50-yard-line]

Why was Thuney “desperate” but J. Smith / H. Henry were not? You agree that, while expensive, Thuney is one of the top guards in football, yes? So the Chiefs spent top dollar for a top player at his position. We both know Smith and Henry were two of the most desperate, low value, offseason moves of the year, but I know I won’t get anywhere with you on that one.

Thuney got paid a lot (16/per) - second highest in the league. Is he in that elite company? Yeah, I think he is - Scherff, Nelson at the top, then Thuney with a few others in second tier.

If you think the contracts between Thuney and the 2 TEs are remotely similar, please look again.

KC was desperate after the SB and they paid top dollar with 47 million guaranteed for 5 years, but really, more likely for 3
(Smith and Henry combined are just 7million more than that, for a solid 7 years of playing time between the two. No funny years.

KC can cut Thuney after 3 years and eat $10m in dead CAP, or keep him and absorb just under $20m per year against their cap in years 4 and 5 when he's 31 and 32 years old. The contracts for the TEs both end before they're 30.

Will Thuney be worth almost $20 million/year in his 30's in 24 and 25? Maybe he will, but if so, the CAP is through the roof compared to now, right?

Thuney got a rare contract.

The two TEs New England got are 4th and 5th in salary, but the guys behind them are either on rookie deals, signed a long time ago, or aging vets serving as placeholders. There aren't a lot of good TEs and the drop off after the first few is enormous. Watch the paydays any of the good TEs behind these two start commanding as they come off their rookie deals. The outlier is Darren Waller, who did nothing his first 3 years in the league - I expect him to renegotiate soon enough.

KS was desperate for an OL. New England was desperate for skill position players.

When people criticize the moves in real-time, before the benefit of hindsight, they’re dismissed as being “whiny,” “want to complain about everything,” “are just mad about Brady.” Then after the moves turn out to be blunders for the (obvious) reasons given, then “Hindsight is easy.” Lol.

I went back and looked at the FA threads this year. Almost all of the complaints on the Jonnu Smith board were "I wanted Henry."

After Henry, the number of people complaining were few and far between. Didn't see much from you there. Not saying you didn't complain, but maybe you can point me to the posts.

 

[203Pat]

Why was Thuney “desperate” but J. Smith / H. Henry were not? You agree that, while expensive, Thuney is one of the top guards in football, yes? So the Chiefs spent top dollar for a top player at his position. We both know Smith and Henry were two of the most desperate, low value, offseason moves of the year, but I know I won’t get anywhere with you on that one.

When people criticize the moves in real-time, before the benefit of hindsight, they’re dismissed as being “whiny,” “want to complain about everything,” “are just mad about Brady.” Then after the moves turn out to be blunders for the (obvious) reasons given, then “Hindsight is easy.” Lol.

The pretzels some people will tie themselves into to excuse every bad move. Other teams pay big money at positions of need: "desperate". Bill does it then it is save rebuilding.

The notion that people on here weren't complaining when we paid a guard $14 mill in a rebuilding year is ridiculous. We have lost our three best players in the last two years with nothing to show for it. Brady, Thuney, and now Gilmore all walk and we net a 6th round pick but don't you dare claim Bill bungled any of the roster management as of late.

 

[50-yard-line]

The pretzels some people will tie themselves into to excuse every bad move. Other teams pay big money at positions of need: "desperate". Bill does it then it is save rebuilding.

The notion that people on here weren't complaining when we paid a guard $14 mill in a rebuilding year is ridiculous. We have lost our three best players in the last two years with nothing to show for it. Brady, Thuney, and now Gilmore all walk and we net a 6th round pick but don't you dare claim Bill bungled any of the roster management as of late.

Hmm, I thought I said that both Gilmore and Thuney were errors.

I thought I said I would have liked to keep Thuney, and that franchising him, then losing him was a mistake.

I thought I said that KC was desperate for OL and New England was desperate for skill position players.

OR did I not throw enough "Bill SUCKS!!!!!!!!!" into my post to satisfy your Felger instincts?

 

[Tottie]

The pretzels some people will tie themselves into to excuse every bad move. Other teams pay big money at positions of need: "desperate". Bill does it then it is save rebuilding.

The notion that people on here weren't complaining when we paid a guard $14 mill in a rebuilding year is ridiculous. We have lost our three best players in the last two years with nothing to show for it. Brady, Thuney, and now Gilmore all walk and we net a 6th round pick but don't you dare claim Bill bungled any of the roster management as of late.

I know. The Thuney signing by KC was bad when you consider the QB doesn't even stay in the pocket. It's amazing that an elite coaching staff would panic and start signing and trading for Olinemen. They should be doing what SEA does which is get a good but not elite line and spend it elsewhere. The money spent here on TEs was the same thing.

Edit: Also look around today... everyone is using the word "rebuid". This wasn't being used last summer infact some people thought we were an AFC favorite because of these signings, LOL. You don't spend that much money in free agency and "rebuild".

 

[203Pat]

Hmm, I thought I said that both Gilmore and Thuney were errors.

I thought I said I would have liked to keep Thuney, and that franchising him, then losing him was a mistake.

I thought I said that KC was desperate for OL and New England was desperate for skill position players.

OR did I not throw enough "Bill SUCKS!!!!!!!!!" into my post to satisfy your Felger instincts?

You typed a whole bunch of stuff to basically say KC overpaid Thuney and we didn't overpay the TE's. Thuney by all accounts is playing well while the TE's we paid aren't. I would rather overpay for a good player than overpay for two average to bad players.

 

[203Pat]

I know. The Thuney signing by KC was bad when you consider the QB doesn't even stay in the pocket. It's amazing that an elite coaching staff would panic and start signing and trading for Olinemen. They should be doing what SEA does which is get a good but not elite line and spend it elsewhere. The money spent here on TEs was the same thing.

Edit: Also look around today... everyone is using the word "rebuid". This wasn't being used last summer infact some people thought we were an AFC favorite because of these signings, LOL. You don't spend that much money in free agency and "rebuild".

Patriots fans have laughed at teams like the Redskins and Dolphins for years because they go out and spend a fortune in free agency then never win anything. Somehow we thought it would be different around here and so far outside of Judon most of the new additions have been busts.