Are third round picks supposed to always become superstars ? Isn’t it approx 50-50 a third rounder stay in the League ?
As mentioned, BB had the means and the players to upgrade via FA. He drafted two third round TEs and they didn’t amount to much last year.
I don’t think it’s time to give up on both TEs. I don’t think missing on third rounders leads to CLE / NYJ type seasons.
Folks think that there's no point to threads like this, but feel compelled to post.
I will consider the issues that you raised, both directly and implicitly.
1) Finding major contributors in the draft is essential to success. The average player plays 3.3 years. We need to do BETTER with 3rd rounders. You say that 50% of 3rd rounders stay in the league. What does that mean? If players are a backup for 4 years, than this player helped the team. But the reality is that we hope for significant contributors from players drafted in the first 3 rounds. Hopefully this is where we get lots of our starters and players who have major roles.
2) Let's be clear. Belichick keeps 100% of players draft in the first 4 rounds. Occasionally, Belichick cuts a 2nd year player picked in the first 3 rounds rather than trying them out for one more year by having them make the 53 or the IR.
I THINK that this is relatively rare for Belichick. I would glad to see some names. I thin k that he gives almost all 2nd year players drafted in the first three rounds a second year. This is a significant investment to throw away after only one season.
3) I agree that it is early to judge a draftee. Not all draftees contribute much in the their first year, even when their competition is a 7th rounder.
As I mentioned, Belichick has made his judgement. If he had any faith in either, he would not have spent $25M. However, I do look forward to one of them being a #3 TE or a FB/HB, not much of an upside or return for a 3rd rounder. That's what we expect of an Izzo or Johnson or Vitale.
4) The BOTTOM LINE is that success requires us to have a lot of roster players on their rookie contracts, either draftees or UDFA's. This is the way to keep down costs, so that the team can be paying more for their starters. Pioli calls this "rent control".
5) Sure, some positions bust a lot (QB's and WR's) even when drafted in the first 3 rounds. Others are expected to contribute. We need to do much better than 50-50 finding contributors in those rounds. We make fun of Belichick's 2nd round DB's. The fact that even here many play in the league more than 3 years.