2021 Schedule Notes & Record Predictions

[patsfanfromoversea]

As for the schedule itself, there's a few shoes that need to drop before I can really get my head around a prediction. Is New Orleans still a top NFC team without Brees? Does Houston have Watson for our matchup (or at all)? Lots of things can sway a strength of schedule in either direction, but looking at it today this is a pretty easy one. Our toughest road game is @Indy coming off a bye week, or @LAC assuming Herbert and that Special team take a step forward. Other than that, all our tough (non-division) opponents are coming to Foxboro. For as rough as last season was, the Pats were 5-3 at home. It's still an advantage there.

Fixed it

 

[sb1]

I expect their defense to be much better than it was last season but without knowing how Newton will play, or how long Belichick will stick with him it’s really hard to predict how the season will go. If it’s the Newton from the second half of 2020 and Belichick sticks with him past the mid season mark then it’s hard to see them making the playoffs.

I think the situation is very different now than a year ago. The Pats had no viable QB options on the roster other than Cam. If Cam isn't any better than last year we'll see Mac sooner than later.

 

[Clonamery]

Good point, but neither the owners nor players are concerned about that. It's all about more Benjamins in the portfolio of each of those two groups.

We already learned that integrity and fairness were irrelevant when 345 Park Avenue was delivered the facts of the Ideal Gas Law.

At least this is far less egregious than what Philadelphia did in week 17 last year at QB, or Indy infamously sucking for Luck.

On the other hand if the NFL is going to go to a 17 game season, what else could they do to make it fair? Over the long run it should theoretically (somewhat) work itself out.

How long before it goes to 18 games? 1 or 2 seasons? 17 is odd, very odd. The numbers people will be looking to even out the schedule.

 

[jdlboot14]

The only way Cam is coming out is if he is hurt or if he is stinking up the joint AND the Pats are losing. If he is playing poorly and the Pats are, lets say, 6-2, he's the starter. And even if he is pulled, there is no guarantee that Jones will be the replacement. Nobody is handing him a job. He will have to be significantly better than Stidham to get that job. Not saying I agree with it, it's just how Bill operates. What do you want to bet Jones is third on the depth chart all season and doesn't even dress?

Good point. I agree that BB will be extra salty in purposely not letting Mac get a hint of playing barring major injury issues. It will be interesting to see if Stid gets an earlier look - mostly for the offensive system operation. We all know Stid and Mac can play Josh's (Weis') offense much better than Cam. If Cam really sucks after 4-6 weeks, they may go to Stid. Then if we're 4-9 or something at the bye, they could get Mac going in prep for '22. It's going to be interesting.

 

[Sicilian]

Fixed it

I mean, it would be hard for them to be any WORSE than last year in that department... maybe their new coach will actual remember that ST is part of the game now.

 

[Ivan]

How long before it goes to 18 games? 1 or 2 seasons? 17 is odd, very odd. The numbers people will be looking to even out the schedule.

The owners are greedy @ssholes, they will try to push it to 18 next year.

 

[BlueThunder]

Interesting scheduling fact that may affect Patriot's win/loss record......Pat's have to play 3 teams coming off a bye week....

 

[BobDigital]

Dolphins - W 21-17 they split Miami last year, I expect them to do it again.
@ Jets - W 24-10 This will be the best defense Wilson has ever faced by far in his life. I doubt he'll be ready.
Saints - W 24-10 - The roll keeps going early. Saints will be in a bad way this year.
Bucs - L 30-17 - Bucs are just too good. Simple as that.
@ Texans - W 30-20 - Texans suck. Will they even have their star QB by this point?
Cowboys - L 24-23 - Dallas is a hot and cold kind of team with a lot of talent. I don't see us going 5-1 so i predict a loss here.
Jets - W 27-20 - a closer contest than the first time.
@ Chargers - L 27-24 - Chargers finally stay healthy and out talent the Patriots
@ Panthers - W 24-9 - One of the few teams with a QB room more shaky than ours... but the lack hope with Darnold IMO
Browns - L 30-20 - Browns keep rolling.
@ Atlanta - L 27-20 - Atlanta is due for a bit of a bounce back year. At their stadium they are hard to beat.
Titans - W 20-17 - Nice win here vs one of the better AFC teams. Having a few extra days off a thursday night game helps.
@ Bills - L 27-20 - Gap is just too big
bye
@ Colts - W 30-17 - Colts overachieved last year with Rivers carrying a fairly sorry cast. They are in for a down year.
Bills - L 30-23 - Ditto
Jags - W 33-20 Crap on a rebuilding team. I like it.
@ Dolphins L - See above, we split with them.

So 9-8. I see a very un-patriots like year where they start fast but lose late as the schedule gets harder.

 

[venecol]

Dolphins - W 21-17 they split Miami last year, I expect them to do it again.
@ Jets - W 24-10 This will be the best defense Wilson has ever faced by far in his life. I doubt he'll be ready.
Saints - W 24-10 - The roll keeps going early. Saints will be in a bad way this year.
Bucs - L 30-17 - Bucs are just too good. Simple as that.
@ Texans - W 30-20 - Texans suck. Will they even have their star QB by this point?
Cowboys - L 24-23 - Dallas is a hot and cold kind of team with a lot of talent. I don't see us going 5-1 so i predict a loss here.
Jets - W 27-20 - a closer contest than the first time.
@ Chargers - L 27-24 - Chargers finally stay healthy and out talent the Patriots
@ Panthers - W 24-9 - One of the few teams with a QB room more shaky than ours... but the lack hope with Darnold IMO
Browns - L 30-20 - Browns keep rolling.
@ Atlanta - L 27-20 - Atlanta is due for a bit of a bounce back year. At their stadium they are hard to beat.
Titans - W 20-17 - Nice win here vs one of the better AFC teams. Having a few extra days off a thursday night game helps.
@ Bills - L 27-20 - Gap is just too big
bye
@ Colts - W 30-17 - Colts overachieved last year with Rivers carrying a fairly sorry cast. They are in for a down year.
Bills - L 30-23 - Ditto
Jags - W 33-20 Crap on a rebuilding team. I like it.
@ Dolphins L - See above, we split with them.

So 9-8. I see a very un-patriots like year where they start fast but lose late as the schedule gets harder.

That's how I see it except Pats beat ATL but lose to TEN. May win 10 but still miss playoffs towards a competitive year next season.

Wk 1 vs. Miami Dolphins, W
Wk 2 at NYJ, W
Wk 3 vs. NO Saints, W
Wk 4 vs. TB Buccaneers, L
Wk 5 at Houston Texans, W
Wk 6 vs. Dallas Cowboys, L
Wk 7 vs. NYJ, W
Wk 8 at LA Chargers, L
Wk 9 at Carolina Panthers, W
Wk 10 vs. Cleveland Browns, L
Wk 11 at Atlanta Falcons, W
Wk 12 vs. Tennessee Titans, L
Wk 13 at Buffalo Bills, L
Wk 14 BYE
Wk 15 at Indianapolis Colts, W
Wk 16 vs. Buffalo Bills, L
Wk 17 vs. JAX Jaguars, W
Wk 18 at Miami Dolphins, L

 

[Sicilian]

Dolphins - W 21-17 they split Miami last year, I expect them to do it again.
@ Jets - W 24-10 This will be the best defense Wilson has ever faced by far in his life. I doubt he'll be ready.
Saints - W 24-10 - The roll keeps going early. Saints will be in a bad way this year.
Bucs - L 30-17 - Bucs are just too good. Simple as that.
@ Texans - W 30-20 - Texans suck. Will they even have their star QB by this point?
Cowboys - L 24-23 - Dallas is a hot and cold kind of team with a lot of talent. I don't see us going 5-1 so i predict a loss here.
Jets - W 27-20 - a closer contest than the first time.
@ Chargers - L 27-24 - Chargers finally stay healthy and out talent the Patriots
@ Panthers - W 24-9 - One of the few teams with a QB room more shaky than ours... but the lack hope with Darnold IMO
Browns - L 30-20 - Browns keep rolling.
@ Atlanta - L 27-20 - Atlanta is due for a bit of a bounce back year. At their stadium they are hard to beat.
Titans - W 20-17 - Nice win here vs one of the better AFC teams. Having a few extra days off a thursday night game helps.
@ Bills - L 27-20 - Gap is just too big
bye
@ Colts - W 30-17 - Colts overachieved last year with Rivers carrying a fairly sorry cast. They are in for a down year.
Bills - L 30-23 - Ditto
Jags - W 33-20 Crap on a rebuilding team. I like it.
@ Dolphins L - See above, we split with them.

So 9-8. I see a very un-patriots like year where they start fast but lose late as the schedule gets harder.

Pretty reasonable breakdown. I have them at 11-7, with one of the extra wins coming against Buffalo. We almost beat them in Buffalo last year, and I'm not convinced they just roll as a 13-3 powerhouse again in back to back years (it's just hard to do). So I see a split there as being reasonable with the improvements we've made.

The other win I have is one of Cleveland, Dallas, and LA. I don't know which one it will be (and it likely won't be more than one), but they'll pull one of those out, because they always do (even last year when they were bad, they beat Baltimore, for example). I also, like the poster above, have the Atlanta and Tenn games swapped, but that evens out.

 

[Steve102]

1: vs MIA (4:25) W on BB having them ready before Flo has his guys ready
2: @ NYJ (1) W because Jete
3: vs NO (1) W and NE is off to a hot start
4: vs TB (SNF) L because Brady
5: @ HOU (1) W texans are bad
6: vs DAL (4:25) L for now good reason TBH
7: vs NYJ (1pm) W because Jete
8: @ LAC (4:05) W I am not convinced LAC is better
9: @ CAR (1) W I think Cam is on the bench by week 9
10: vs CLE (1) L but I think this is a good point to evaluate how good/bad the Pats are
11: @ ATL (TNF) W
12: vs TEN (1) L I think Vrabel's team is a tick better at this point
13 @ BUF (MNF) W I think they can split Buffalo, so I give 'em the home game
14: BYE
15: @ IND (TBD) W Wentz sucks.
16: vs BUF (1) L based on the split
17: vs JAX (1) W. Bill always baffles rookie QBs
18: @ MIA (1) L because they always seems to split with Miami

11-6, should get them a WC berth. This is least convinced I have ever been that they will be decent. The QB play is key. If Cam/Mac can keep from losing games, they should be fine.

 

[50-yard-line]

I was thinking 10-7, but with the bye week issues, I'll go 9-8.

It all depends on the QB play (and injuries, as with every year, obviously), but if Cam dramatically improves, which is possible because of the situation/injuries/COVID issues last year, or if Jones or Stidham or whoever else they pull out of a hat comes in and gives them a serious uptick at that position, 10-12 wins wouldn't surprise me.

This is a very talented/best-coached team with one critical piece in question. With top-16 (top-half) or even top-20 QB play, they're a playoff team.

 

[zimmy]

This is a double digit win team in my eyes. The defence is significantly improved and figures to be a probable top 10 unit. The offense may be limited early but still should be better than last year. Bill managed to drag the threadbare roster from last year with Cam performing at a historically bad level to 7 wins. If we can get even average QB play, we really should be able to improve our record by a few wins at least.

 

[sb1]

Dolphins - W 21-17 they split Miami last year, I expect them to do it again.
@ Jets - W 24-10 This will be the best defense Wilson has ever faced by far in his life. I doubt he'll be ready.
Saints - W 24-10 - The roll keeps going early. Saints will be in a bad way this year.
Bucs - L 30-17 - Bucs are just too good. Simple as that.
@ Texans - W 30-20 - Texans suck. Will they even have their star QB by this point?
Cowboys - L 24-23 - Dallas is a hot and cold kind of team with a lot of talent. I don't see us going 5-1 so i predict a loss here.
Jets - W 27-20 - a closer contest than the first time.
@ Chargers - L 27-24 - Chargers finally stay healthy and out talent the Patriots
@ Panthers - W 24-9 - One of the few teams with a QB room more shaky than ours... but the lack hope with Darnold IMO
Browns - L 30-20 - Browns keep rolling.
@ Atlanta - L 27-20 - Atlanta is due for a bit of a bounce back year. At their stadium they are hard to beat.
Titans - W 20-17 - Nice win here vs one of the better AFC teams. Having a few extra days off a thursday night game helps.
@ Bills - L 27-20 - Gap is just too big
bye
@ Colts - W 30-17 - Colts overachieved last year with Rivers carrying a fairly sorry cast. They are in for a down year.
Bills - L 30-23 - Ditto
Jags - W 33-20 Crap on a rebuilding team. I like it.
@ Dolphins L - See above, we split with them.

So 9-8. I see a very un-patriots like year where they start fast but lose late as the schedule gets harder.

I got 8-9 or 9-8 and going pretty much the way you describe.

The playoff and contending window opens in 2022 IMO. Bills won't be at the top of the division for long if all goes well.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

I got 8-9 or 9-8 and going pretty much the way you describe.

The playoff and contending window opens in 2022 IMO. Bills won't be at the top of the division for long if all goes well.

Yeah I am with you. 8-9, 9-8 or 10-7 team in my mind.

 

[ashley]

Interesting

 

[sb1]

Interesting

Eh, it's the Chargers, Jets and Colts who have the same bye week as us. Won't really be much of a factor I think. I'd be more concerned about that if it was a division opponent.

Edit: LOL I guess the Jets don't count as a real division opponent I swear that wasn't on purpose lol

 

[PowerRunRevival]

11-6 or 12-5. Top 5 defense, Top 5 Rush Offense, Top 5 Special Teams. QBs are able to make throws off play action, and move the ball in the short passing game but this offense will need to stay on schedule to succeed.

Cam plays well to start the season but runs himself into the ground and gets injured about halfway through the season. Mac starts around 8 games, suffering through some growing pains but getting the ball out quickly and throwing an accurate ball.

 

[Hyped]

Wk 1 vs. Miami Dolphins, W (It is all about the Patriots D for me here. The Fish need to gel a bit on offense with Tua. Cam, the RBs, and the TE's will be enough to win.)
Wk 2 at NYJ, W (Like someone else said, Zach Wilson has never played a D this good before)
Wk 3 vs. NO Saints, W (The Saints D is some good though, but I like Gilly locking down Thomas and us limiting Kamara just enough.)
Wk 4 vs. TB Buccaneers, W (This game is likely to be similar to the 1999 week 9 game against the Ray Lucas Jets, IMO. More on that later.)
Wk 5 at Houston Texans, W (Gonna be a tough one. I think Houston is better as a "whole is the better than the sum of its parts" kind of a way.)
Wk 6 vs. Dallas Cowboys, W (Dallas? In Foxboro? LOL...our D will shut that **** down. The Cowboy D will be a lot better though. Low scoring game.)
Wk 7 vs. NYJ, W (Wilson will be much better by then, but the home crowd pulls through for us.)
Wk 8 at LA Chargers, W (I will likely be at this game...and I'll WILL the team to victory!)
Wk 9 at Carolina Panthers, W (Back to back road win for us. And a guaranteed win if Cam plays, IMO.)
Wk 10 vs. Cleveland Browns, L (I think we finally lose a game here...a close hard fought one. The Browns have the D and running game to play with us.)
Wk 11 at Atlanta Falcons, W (An ugly game that we barely pull out...)
Wk 12 vs. Tennessee Titans, W (The mini-BYE helps us a bit...and we give whatever we have left and barely pull out a W)
Wk 13 at Buffalo Bills, L (First ugly loss of the year....we will be completely gassed and just fly home immediately afterwards.)
Wk 14 BYE
Wk 15 at Indianapolis Colts, W (We come out hard after the BYE and blow out the Colts in Indy.)
Wk 16 vs. Buffalo Bills, W (We destroy the Bills in Foxboro...snapping a rare 3 game losing streak and reclaim the AFC East as our birthright!)
Wk 17 vs. JAX Jaguars, W (We toy with the Jags before pulling out a late W)
Wk 18 at Miami Dolphins, L (We rest starters in the 2nd half and let the fish finish a respectable 9-8 to keep someone like the Colts out of the playoffs, LOL).

14-3, Division Champs, and a 1st round BYE. Book it.

 

[Sicilian]

Wk 1 vs. Miami Dolphins, W (It is all about the Patriots D for me here. The Fish need to gel a bit on offense with Tua. Cam, the RBs, and the TE's will be enough to win.)
Wk 2 at NYJ, W (Like someone else said, Zach Wilson has never played a D this good before)
Wk 3 vs. NO Saints, W (The Saints D is some good though, but I like Gilly locking down Thomas and us limiting Kamara just enough.)
Wk 4 vs. TB Buccaneers, W (This game is likely to be similar to the 1999 week 9 game against the Ray Lucas Jets, IMO. More on that later.)
Wk 5 at Houston Texans, W (Gonna be a tough one. I think Houston is better as a "whole is the better than the sum of its parts" kind of a way.)
Wk 6 vs. Dallas Cowboys, W (Dallas? In Foxboro? LOL...our D will shut that **** down. The Cowboy D will be a lot better though. Low scoring game.)
Wk 7 vs. NYJ, W (Wilson will be much better by then, but the home crowd pulls through for us.)
Wk 8 at LA Chargers, W (I will likely be at this game...and I'll WILL the team to victory!)
Wk 9 at Carolina Panthers, W (Back to back road win for us. And a guaranteed win if Cam plays, IMO.)
Wk 10 vs. Cleveland Browns, L (I think we finally lose a game here...a close hard fought one. The Browns have the D and running game to play with us.)
Wk 11 at Atlanta Falcons, W (An ugly game that we barely pull out...)
Wk 12 vs. Tennessee Titans, W (The mini-BYE helps us a bit...and we give whatever we have left and barely pull out a W)
Wk 13 at Buffalo Bills, L (First ugly loss of the year....we will be completely gassed and just fly home immediately afterwards.)
Wk 14 BYE
Wk 15 at Indianapolis Colts, W (We come out hard after the BYE and blow out the Colts in Indy.)
Wk 16 vs. Buffalo Bills, W (We destroy the Bills in Foxboro...snapping a rare 3 game losing streak and reclaim the AFC East as our birthright!)
Wk 17 vs. JAX Jaguars, W (We toy with the Jags before pulling out a late W)
Wk 18 at Miami Dolphins, L (We rest starters in the 2nd half and let the fish finish a respectable 9-8 to keep someone like the Colts out of the playoffs, LOL).

14-3, Division Champs, and a 1st round BYE. Book it.

Well, this is certainly the most optimistic outlook I've seen thus far.