DRAFT BGC 2021 Pats Big Board - Draft Thread

[long distance]

I don't really see this as a deep draft. Imo this year really is a 3-4 round draft. Esp IDL, QB, Tackle ... Curious how we attack some positions this year. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see us trade up more than down after 15. Seems like a good year to go get your guys with the opt outs, lots of picks and depth of the overall class.

Moreover the current Pats roster would suggest that also (which is hardly a coincidence).
This is the most filled roster going into Draft in quite some time:



The actual virtual roster number is 76 in my book (Miguel is still counting Chung).

Its not just this total number since the bottom of the roster is still full of players with question marks (opt outs, futures contracts etc.)
Its also the number of players that are likely to make the roster.
Why would you waste a solid pick on a player you cant roster on 53? You're just giving away a free pick to other teams when they take him off your waiver or PS. So I also expect this year for picks to be very selected - and used on positions where there is legitimate space on 53..

 

[long distance]

Here is the current roster. I have 27 locks and 46 likely to make 53 at this point.
There might be a trade or two involving some of these players. There will also be some additional FA signings or trades for players coming in.
So there is not much room on 53 for draft picks. Id guess 7 picks will be made + maybe additional 7th rounder to secure HPFA.
Remember that at least one spot on 53 is to be reserved for UDFA
(3-4/2-3) = usual number of players at position for Training Camp (black) / on 53 (brown)
Underlined are locks (mostly re contract guarantees).

Positions that were heavily targeted in FA are not likely to be highly targeted in Draft (or at all) no matter what any pat fan thinks of the players.


QB (3-4/2-3) - 1Newton (32, 2021, $5.4), 4Stidham (25, 2022, $0.8), 8Dolegala (24,futures)

RB (6-7/4-5) - 26Michel* (26,2021+1,$3), 37D.Harris (24,2022,$1), 28White (29,2021,$2.5), 42JJ.Taylor (23,2022,$0,8), 38Bolden* (31,2021,$2)
FB (2/1) - 47Johnson* (26, ERFA, +1?-*international), #Vitale (27, 2021,$1,3)

WR (9-11/5-6) - Agholor (28,2022,$7), 84Bourne, (26,2023,$3.1), 15Harry (23, 2022+1, $2,8), 16Meyers (24, 2021, $0,9),
80Olszewski* (24, 2021, $0,9), 19Zuber (24, futures), 13D.Smith (29, futures), 17Wilkerson (24, futures)

TE (6-7/3-4) - Smith (26,2024,$5.7), Henry (26,2023,$6.8), 86Asiasi (24,2023,$1), 44Keene (22,2023,$1), 83LaCosse* (29,2021,1.5$)

OT (6/4) - 76Wynn (25,2021,$3.6), Brown (28,2021,$7.6), 75Herron (25,2023,$0,8), 77Cajuste (25,2022,$1), 74Cunningham (26,2021,$0,9)

IOL (9/6) - 71Onwenu (23,2023,$0,8), 69Mason (28,2023,$9.8), 60Andrews (29,2024,1.7$), Karras (29, 2021,3$)
68M.Martin (C/G,27,2021,$0.9), 68Toran (G,25,2021,$0,8)

DL (7/3-4) - Godchaux (27,2022,$4), 93Guy (31,2024,$1.7), Anderson (30,2022,$2,7), 98C.Davis (29,2022,$1.9), 99Cowart (25,2022,$0,9),
Adams (26,2021,1$), 52Spence (29,2021,$2), 92Thurman (26,futures), 97Murray (24,futures)

ED (7/4-5) - Judon (29,2024,$6.4), 50Winovich* (26,2022,$1.1), 55Uche* (23,2023,$1.2), 91Wise* (27,2024,$3.3), 96Bower (26,2021,$0,9),
43Berry (24,2021,$0.8),

LB (7/5-6) - 54Hightower (31,2021,$12.5/10), 53Van Noy (30,2022,$4.4), 51Bentley* (25,2021,$1), 58Jennings* (24,2023,$1),
McMillan (24,2021,$1.1), 59Hall (24,2021,$0.8)

S (7/5-6) - 32D.McCourty* (34,2021,$11.2), 21Phillips* (29,2021,$3.5), 35Dugger* (25,2023,$1.9), 23Mills (27,2024,4.6$),
41Bryant* (23,2022,$0.9)

CB (9-11/5-6) - 24Gilmore (31,2021,$16.3), 27JC.Jackson (25,2021,RFA), 31J.Jones* (28,2022,$7.1), 33Williams* (23,2022,$1.8),
45M.Jackson (24,2021,$0.8), 38Virgin (27,2021,$0.9), 39Ross (24,futures)

ST - 7Bailey (24,2022,$0.9), 49Cardona (29,2022,$1.1), 6Folk (36, 2021, 1.6$), 9Aguayo (27,futures)
18Slater (WR,36,2021,$3), 36King (LB,28,2021,$1.4), 29Bethel (SS,31,2023, $), 22Cody Davis (FS,32,2022, $), Reynolds (LB,30, )


-.-

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Early day bc of rain (waterproofing), doesn't happen too often. I'll have updated boards in a few hours to use a guide if people want.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

Here is the current roster. I have 27 locks and 46 likely to make 53 at this point.
There might be a trade or two involving some of these players. There will also be some additional FA signings or trades for players coming in.
So there is not much room on 53 for draft picks. Id guess 7 picks will be made + maybe additional 7th rounder to secure HPFA.
Remember that at least one spot on 53 is to be reserved for UDFA
(3-4/2-3) = usual number of players at position for Training Camp (black) / on 53 (brown)
Underlined are locks (mostly re contract guarantees).

Positions that were heavily targeted in FA are not likely to be highly targeted in Draft (or at all) no matter what any pat fan thinks of the players.


QB (3-4/2-3) - 1Newton (32, 2021, $5.4), 4Stidham (25, 2022, $0.8), 8Dolegala (24,futures)

RB (6-7/4-5) - 26Michel* (26,2021+1,$3), 37D.Harris (24,2022,$1), 28White (29,2021,$2.5), 42JJ.Taylor (23,2022,$0,8), 38Bolden* (31,2021,$2)
FB (2/1) - 47Johnson* (26, ERFA, +1?-*international), #Vitale (27, 2021,$1,3)

WR (9-11/5-6) - Agholor (28,2022,$7), 84Bourne, (26,2023,$3.1), 15Harry (23, 2022+1, $2,8), 16Meyers (24, 2021, $0,9),
80Olszewski* (24, 2021, $0,9), 19Zuber (24, futures), 13D.Smith (29, futures), 17Wilkerson (24, futures)

TE (6-7/3-4) - Smith (26,2024,$5.7), Henry (26,2023,$6.8), 86Asiasi (24,2023,$1), 44Keene (22,2023,$1), 83LaCosse* (29,2021,1.5$)

OT (6/4) - 76Wynn (25,2021,$3.6), Brown (28,2021,$7.6), 75Herron (25,2023,$0,8), 77Cajuste (25,2022,$1), 74Cunningham (26,2021,$0,9)

IOL (9/6) - 71Onwenu (23,2023,$0,8), 69Mason (28,2023,$9.8), 60Andrews (29,2024,1.7$), Karras (29, 2021,3$)
68M.Martin (C/G,27,2021,$0.9), 68Toran (G,25,2021,$0,8)

DL (7/3-4) - Godchaux (27,2022,$4), 93Guy (31,2024,$1.7), Anderson (30,2022,$2,7), 98C.Davis (29,2022,$1.9), 99Cowart (25,2022,$0,9),
Adams (26,2021,1$), 52Spence (29,2021,$2), 92Thurman (26,futures), 97Murray (24,futures)

ED (7/4-5) - Judon (29,2024,$6.4), 50Winovich* (26,2022,$1.1), 55Uche* (23,2023,$1.2), 91Wise* (27,2024,$3.3), 96Bower (26,2021,$0,9),
43Berry (24,2021,$0.8),

LB (7/5-6) - 54Hightower (31,2021,$12.5/10), 53Van Noy (30,2022,$4.4), 51Bentley* (25,2021,$1), 58Jennings* (24,2023,$1),
McMillan (24,2021,$1.1), 59Hall (24,2021,$0.8)

S (7/5-6) - 32D.McCourty* (34,2021,$11.2), 21Phillips* (29,2021,$3.5), 35Dugger* (25,2023,$1.9), 23Mills (27,2024,4.6$),
41Bryant* (23,2022,$0.9)

CB (9-11/5-6) - 24Gilmore (31,2021,$16.3), 27JC.Jackson (25,2021,RFA), 31J.Jones* (28,2022,$7.1), 33Williams* (23,2022,$1.8),
45M.Jackson (24,2021,$0.8), 38Virgin (27,2021,$0.9), 39Ross (24,futures)

ST - 7Bailey (24,2022,$0.9), 49Cardona (29,2022,$1.1), 6Folk (36, 2021, 1.6$), 9Aguayo (27,futures)
18Slater (WR,36,2021,$3), 36King (LB,28,2021,$1.4), 29Bethel (SS,31,2023, $), 22Cody Davis (FS,32,2022, $), Reynolds (LB,30, )


-.-

Good List but i would add some locks, here are additional players who are locked for me:
- Slater, Bethel, Davis for ST as well as Folk
- Meyers at WR knows the offense is cheap and produced in a worse passing offense last year really well with inferior qb play
- Herron showed flashes, can play both sides T/G and cheap
- Jennings, Phillips as well

 

[long distance]

Good List but i would add some locks, here are additional players who are locked for me:
- Slater, Bethel, Davis for ST as well as Folk
- Meyers at WR knows the offense is cheap and produced in a worse passing offense last year really well with inferior qb play
- Herron showed flashes, can play both sides T/G and cheap
- Jennings, Phillips as well

I dont like the word lock talking about BB roster so i use it carefully

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

I dont like the word lock talking about BB roster so i use it carefully

Good Point

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

 

[long distance]

This kid is just desperate . but taking all circumstances into consideration (loaded roster, FA, cap, rare draft position, starting QB on a low 1y deal, 5 consensus starting QB potential - so at least one within reasonable reach) trading up for a QB would be the most logical move - if the opportunity for somewhat reasonable deal is there..

Id be surprised if Atlanta would move down to #15 (and adding another team in the deal would be complicated and even more expensive) but anything from Detroit on should be negotiable..

 

[long distance]

QB (3-4/2-3) - 1Newton (32, 2021, $5.4), 4Stidham (25, 2022, $0.8), 8Dolegala (24,futures)

RB (6-7/4-5) - 26Michel* (26,2021+1,$3), 37D.Harris (24,2022,$1), 28White (29,2021,$2.5), 42JJ.Taylor (23,2022,$0,8), 38Bolden* (31,2021,$2)
FB (2/1) - 47Johnson* (26, ERFA, +1?-*international), #Vitale (27, 2021,$1,3)

WR (9-11/5-6) - Agholor (28,2022,$7), 84Bourne, (26,2023,$3.1), 15Harry (23, 2022+1, $2,8), 16Meyers (24, 2021, $0,9),
80Olszewski* (24, 2021, $0,9), 19Zuber (24, futures), 13D.Smith (29, futures), 17Wilkerson (24, futures)

TE (6-7/3-4) - Smith (26,2024,$5.7), Henry (26,2023,$6.8), 86Asiasi (24,2023,$1), 44Keene (22,2023,$1), 83LaCosse* (29,2021,1.5$)

OT (6/4) - 76Wynn (25,2021,$3.6), Brown (28,2021,$7.6), 75Herron (25,2023,$0,8), 77Cajuste (25,2022,$1), 74Cunningham (26,2021,$0,9)

IOL (9/6) - 71Onwenu (23,2023,$0,8), 69Mason (28,2023,$9.8), 60Andrews (29,2024,1.7$), Karras (29, 2021,3$)
68M.Martin (C/G,27,2021,$0.9), 68Toran (G,25,2021,$0,8)

DL (7/3-4) - Godchaux (27,2022,$4), 93Guy (31,2024,$1.7), Anderson (30,2022,$2,7), 98C.Davis (29,2022,$1.9), 99Cowart (25,2022,$0,9),
Adams (26,2021,1$), 52Spence (29,2021,$2), 92Thurman (26,futures), 97Murray (24,futures)

ED (7/4-5) - Judon (29,2024,$6.4), 50Winovich* (26,2022,$1.1), 55Uche* (23,2023,$1.2), 91Wise* (27,2024,$3.3), 96Bower (26,2021,$0,9),
43Berry (24,2021,$0.8),

LB (7/5-6) - 54Hightower (31,2021,$12.5/10), 53Van Noy (30,2022,$4.4), 51Bentley* (25,2021,$1), 58Jennings* (24,2023,$1),
McMillan (24,2021,$1.1), 59Hall (24,2021,$0.8)

S (7/5-6) - 32D.McCourty* (34,2021,$11.2), 21Phillips* (29,2021,$3.5), 35Dugger* (25,2023,$1.9), 23Mills (27,2024,4.6$),
41Bryant* (23,2022,$0.9)

CB (9-11/5-6) - 24Gilmore (31,2021,$16.3), 27JC.Jackson (25,2021,RFA), 31J.Jones* (28,2022,$7.1), 33Williams* (23,2022,$1.8),
45M.Jackson (24,2021,$0.8), 38Virgin (27,2021,$0.9), 39Ross (24,futures)

ST - 7Bailey (24,2022,$0.9), 49Cardona (29,2022,$1.1), 6Folk (36, 2021, 1.6$), 9Aguayo (27,futures)
18Slater (WR,36,2021,$3), 36King (LB,28,2021,$1.4), 29Bethel (SS,31,2023, $), 22Cody Davis (FS,32,2022, $), Reynolds (LB,30, )


-.-

So looking at the roster and what Pats usually carry by position to TC these would be approx the missing pieces (depending on the opt-outs).
Most of them will be filled over next 3 days and then the bottom of the roster starts to churn. Some positions with multiple questionable players could add some more.

QB: 1 (draft)
RB+HB: 2-3 (1-2 draft, 1-2 udfa)
WR: 3 (1-2 draft, 1-2 udfa)
TE: 1 (udfa)
OT: 1-2 (draft/udfa)
IOL: 4 (1-2 draft, 1-2 udfa, FA)
IDL: 1 (draft/udfa)
ED: 1-2 (draft/udfa)
LB: 1-2 (1 draft, 1 udfa)
S: 2 (draft/udfa/FA)
CB: 3-4 (1-2 draft/ 2 udfa)
K: 1 (draft/udfa)

Id be surprised if these positions are not drafted: 1QB, 1WR, 1IOL, 1CB, 1LB
Id expect in addition: 1RB/HB, and 1S of course
Id like: 1OT
Kicker is a wild card

 

[long distance]

some QB thoughts

As mentioned earlier if they believe in top 5 QBs targeting one in the 1st round and likely trading up makes the most sense.
In fact trading up for a QB you believe in when you don't have the future of position secured ALWAYS makes sense almost no matter the price.
If you hit on a starter you can afford up to 4 additional proven blue chip contracts over next 4-5 years (by NE standards). So even if you give up 2 future 1sts (which in this case will not be needed) you still have net blue chip gain.

If BB feels more comfortable spending his late coaching years with known commodity (Cam, Jimmy or some other vet starting QB that becomes available down the road) i can understand that but i believe he always puts whats best for the team short and long term first - and from economic perspective which he likes to go by taking future starting QB in these rare circumstances (if he believes is there) should be the move. It doesn't cost a lot as mentioned and just gives the team more flexibility securing the future of QB position.

If they don't pick QB in 1st it would prob mean the belief was not fully there about remaining options or the grade was not much different to players they might draft later (as f.e. Mac & Mills on BGC board). There is no need to do this imo (there are always multiple ways time brings along) but there is probably unique opportunity.

I don't have strong feeling for any of the QBs (since i cant have most important info about them) but would under circumstances move up for one of the more or less consensus top 5.

Moving up id try to make sure i have one pick in remaining 3 rounds (2-4) somewhere along the line of this nicely thought out proposal by @40yrpatsfan:

What might do it is this package with Detroit at #7:
- swap our 2nd (46) for their high 3rd (72)
- they receive our low 4th (139)
- they receive our 2022 2nd
- if necessary sweeten the deal with one of our two 6th rounders, as the Lions don't have a 6th or 7th rounder.

The Lions end up with a great draft board, drafting 15, 41, 46, their other 3rd (101), two 4ths (112/139), a 5th and a 6th. Plus next year they'd have two 2nd's.

That's overpaying according to the point charts, but still leaves us with a decent draft board:
- we had two 6th's and three 4th's, so giving up one of each is not a big sacrifice
- the swap of 46 for 72 is a major step down, but it's not giving up a pick outright, it just changes from a mid-2nd to a high 3rd
- we could get back up into the 2nd round by packaging 72 with one of our other 4th's (122) to move up to the 58-62 range.
- at that point our board would be 1(7), 2(60), 3(96), 4(122), 5(177), 6(188), and 7(242). We'd have our QB, still have a pick in each round, and the only part that dings us is giving up the 2022 2nd which is likely in the 52-62 range.

 

[loosebearing]

I never watch college football and I never read about the prospects until the week of the draft. I start by reading BaconGrundleCandy’s (thank you!!) Big Board Thread and study his spreadsheets and then I read BGC’s prospect thread and then I go to the CBS and NFL sites to read more on the players I like from BGC’s threads. So, with only relying on the opinions of others I have my Wish List:


With the current draft selections: 15 46 96 120 122. 139 177 188 197 242

I wish for Alija Vera-Tucker OR Micah Parsons with our first round pick (#15)
I wish for Davis Mills with our second round pick (#46). I saw about 15 min of the Pro days for Miller and Trask and Fields and Mills was by far the most poised, best leader, and the better passer.
I wish for Daviyon Nixon AND Bobby Brown with our next picks
And finally Wide Receivers Ihmie Smith-Marsette and Cade Johnson with two of the remaining picks

If we trade down: With trades with Washington, Seattle & Dallas the Pats could end up with picks: 19 46 56 82 139 177 242

Then I would wish for Teven Jenkins OR Caleb Farley with our new first round pick(#19)
With our second round picks I would wish for Dillon Radunz AND Davis Mills
With our third I would wish for Daviyon Nixon
And with the two of the remaining picks Bobby Brown and Cade Johnson


Note 1: After studying the write-ups on Zaven Collins and Jamin Davis and Deonte Brown they all reminded me of Kyle Dugger (only just about 10-15 lbs heavier). So could Dugger become the athletic linebacker ?


Note 2: After working the draft trade value chart for a couple of hours to swap lower picks for higher ones I realize how much I hate the NFL for taking away pick #68 (250 points! ) from the Patriots over such a trivial matter.

The next few nights will now be exciting and fun now that I am more informed about the pieces on the chess board. Thanks BGC !

 

[fightingirish595]

@BaconGrundleCandy what do you think about bama under 5.5 players in the first round.

Jones,smith,waddle, surtain look like locks to go in the first.

barmore and/or Harris a good chance to slip to the second? Just need 1 to... am I missing anyone?

Edit: nvm maybe barmore won’t slip. Saban refuted those reports. But najee still could?

 

[captain stone]

Moreover the current Pats roster would suggest that also (which is hardly a coincidence).
This is the most filled roster going into Draft in quite some time:



The actual virtual roster number is 76 in my book (Miguel is still counting Chung).

Its not just this total number since the bottom of the roster is still full of players with question marks (opt outs, futures contracts etc.)
Its also the number of players that are likely to make the roster.
Why would you waste a solid pick on a player you cant roster on 53? You're just giving away a free pick to other teams when they take him off your waiver or PS. So I also expect this year for picks to be very selected - and used on positions where there is legitimate space on 53..

There is plenty of room - PLENTY - for At Least a dozen or more talented rookies on this roster.

 

[captain stone]

Good List but i would add some locks, here are additional players who are locked for me:
- Slater, Bethel, Davis for ST as well as Folk
- Meyers at WR knows the offense is cheap and produced in a worse passing offense last year really well with inferior qb play
- Herron showed flashes, can play both sides T/G and cheap
- Jennings, Phillips as well

Agree on the STers, Meyers & Phillips.

Herron & Jennings are easily up-gradable.

 

[50-yard-line]

There is plenty of room - PLENTY - for At Least a dozen or more talented rookies on this roster.

No way.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

@BaconGrundleCandy what do you think about bama under 5.5 players in the first round.

Jones,smith,waddle, surtain look like locks to go in the first.

barmore and/or Harris a good chance to slip to the second? Just need 1 to... am I missing anyone?

Edit: nvm maybe barmore won’t slip. Saban refuted those reports. But najee still could?

I think there's something there about Barmore but who knows. I'd lean over. Leatherwood too. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go late.

 

[BobDigital]

Gotcha just looking for a little context but I can guesstimate.

Value is a weird subject. It's constant in some areas and changes in others. It's quite clear and subjective. It's necessary though, especially for the pros. It helps set the board, gage where others heads are at, helps avoid mistakes and steal a gem. It's a crazy game to play. I'm grateful for @BobDigital work in the draft forum keeping me honest and on my toes.

As of now I was a little too low on Onwenu. Think I had him as a 5th, we'll see how it plays out. I should have listed him at G also. I go out on a limb or have an opinion (Wynn at G) and am wrong there. In my defense I spend about 10 seconds thinking about it. Usually I try to envision an optimum fit but I should go safe with that stuff bc I'm not a coach. Just estimating what type of player that prospect will be.

It'll look a little different tomorrow.

But I think it's clear what we're hoping for at 15, once the draft starts. We want a QB. If we can't get one it's like 5-6 players or trade back.

Thanks for the kind words. I usually would be more active, but it has been a really busy few months for me. So I'm pretty much just going by your board and a few others this year : )

 

[long distance]

some positional roster>draft thoughts : OFFENSE

RB and TE are basically set for this yr so it will be about possible opportunity in mid rounds or just adding TC/PS/ST player.
I would like though that they address FB position which can def be upgraded and there is a perfect fit later in the Draft in Ben Mason.
They might try Keene more seriously in that role which would only make sense but still no excuse to pass on my binkie

WR - the core - at least for 2021 - is there - but there should be a place to add another potential starter so this could be an option early in the draft. Looking at the whole receiving core of Agholor, Bourne, Meyers, Henry, Smith - Harry would actually be the perfect fit on paper if he can finally turn it on. In that case adding another capable speedster would make sense.
Waddle would be a nice fit if he falls and they dont go QB, Elijah Moore as well esp. if he is there in the second which i doubt. Depending of what they do with Harry some bigger outside options could be in play like Bateman, Marshall could fall or Palmer a bit later. But there will be no need to push the issue here (unless one of top 3 falls) since it is a deep group and there are solid prospects all the way to UDFA unlike most other positions.

OT - this is one of the big Qs going into the Draft as early as today. No news for now about Wynn's 5y option. Couple of positive hunches from beats that mean zilch. Today could already give an answer how they view Wynn going forward. Picking OL in the first round is def an option regardless with both starting tackles only signed for this season. Id like both: 5th y option for Wynn & OL in first two rounds.

IOL - Despite signing both Andrews and Karras there is still some work to do to build competent depth. Eluemunor is still out there and i can see him coming back for TC, Ferentz is always on a call as well but this draft offers a chance to bring in some new solid talent at low cost to groom for next year. My choice would be ****erson if he falls - give him time to fully recover and then have a dominant player all over OL for future. There should be plenty of other good options later in the draft to double dip (Christensen, Hainsey, Jaimes, Banks, David Moore, Sam Cooper, Farniok, Hutcherson etc)

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Finishing up top 50 now. I'll probably go to 75. Between them all you get a good idea of the value. This will be finalized about 745-8 so check it out then.

NEP 2021 NFL DRAFT BOARD.xlsx

Microsoft Excel Workbook

1drv.ms

*edit* you might see a name above on one board and below on the other. You get the idea from the color. Been moving them around the past few days so it happens.

 

[BobDigital]

At this point if the Pats don't get one of the top QBs I just want them to take the BPA. They have a good enough team, but not one that can truly compete for a championship. When in this spot I tend to go solely on value and then figure out how to build around it later.

Going by Bacon's board I'd look to grab any of those top 9-11 players who fall to us. I'd be happy with that if there isn't a QB worth taking a shot on.