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DRAFT BGC 2021 Pats Big Board - Draft Thread


NFLN, headed up by that insufferable cheerleader blond, just made the pick at #15 via Mike Giardi...Trey Lance. My opinion is BB trades down in this draft but I'm OK with Lance at 15

Yeah I watched (DVRed) the show too...Hey if we don't have to sacrifice any future assets, and Lance is still on the board at #15, then we gotta take him there and hope for the best...And you're right about that blond cheerleader bimbo; that's why I watched it on mute until the Men were talking...
 
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I have a few questions for the board on the QB situation.

a. The so called common wisdom or narration has profiled Mack Jones as the pro ready accurate "system" QB with moderate to poor avoidance abilty who is the favorite to go to SF at 3 on Thursday. Fields is the uber physically talented QB in the Cam Newton mold who is going to need time to develop into a "true" NFL QB.

Then I read where PFF did a study that threw that narrative in the ****ter. They studied the top 9 QB's accuracy based on a LOT of factors and came up with the numbers that had Fields rated the 2nd or 3rd most accurate passer and had Jones rated 9th I think (also IIRC Lawrence didn't fair all that well either. 6th I think) Even Lance did better though the competition and number of throws were low. I'd be surprised if the well read guys that are here haven't read or heard of that study.

So here's my question. After I heard those stats, I figured that SF's real target all along is Fields and Jones is the smoke screen. And for a while all the prognosticators and the oddsmakers seemed to think Fields was SF's guy. But now for some reason that I don't understand Jones seems to be gaining with the oddsmakers and draft gurus and I don't know WHY?

Help me out here. In a lot of years Jones would be a late 2nd or 3rd round prospect for all the reasons that have been talked about for months. Given the reality that he's HASN'T been the most accurate QB, or even close to it of the first 5 crop, WHY is he unlikely to get out of the top 10. Was the PFF study flawed, or badly done. Why is Jones still being equated to Fields and what has Fields done to make the gurus think that he'd POSSIBLY get into a range where he'd be available to the Pats. Personally I'd rate him as #3 and Jones and Lance are a good sized gap below Fields.

In the end I don't think we are going to get a QB with our first round pick so its all kind of moot, though I bet either Jones or Lance (probably Lance) will be there a 15 and BB will pass.

As to ****erson. Like all the top OLmen that Pats will have the opportunity to get in the first 2 rounds, he is a luxury we can't afford this season. Our current OL has 5 strong starters (Brown, Mason, Andrews, Owenu, and Wynn and 3 guys who look like solid depth pieces in Karras, E;iumaneur. amd Herron with Cajuste being a darkhorse to be a 4th guy. Yeah I know about Brown's one year deal and Wynn's rookie contract, but Brown WANTS to be here. He already proved that, and if we see a similar year as in 2018 he WILL get paid as he should, but it would be a deal timed to big Cap boost that will happen in 2023. Same for Wynn.

I don't hate OLmen, but we have a chance to get a top 3 LB, edge player, and or WR. Even a CB seems a luxury given the the top 2 QB's will be gone before 15 and Farley is a bigger injury risk than ****erson.

Right bow my favorite scenario is a trade down to the 20's and pick up another low second or high 3 and pick ZCollins there Sounds like a freek athlete without the off field risks Parson's has. Then we can use the extra pick to maneuver in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to get Trask or Monde. So in my ideal world we end the 3rd round with a top 3 LB, a top 10 WR, and Monde or Trask plus another pick
 
@TheRazorsEdge

Sorry it took so long. Work, life and watched the Mandalorian which was absolutely brilliant l ...

"Not what I want or would do but what I believe deep down" ...

QB - So I'm on record of saying - thinking that Atl isn't taking a QB. They have 100 mill tied to Ryan the next two years. Small chance they get a QB. Cinci won't trade out imo and won't take a QB. Neither will Mia. Detroit & Carolina are likely to stick with their current QB corp. So there will be options. No matter who SF takes there will be two good QB's on the board.

I believe there's a legit chance we trade up for all 3 (JF, TL, MJ) Give or take - I think we would do 15 + 2022 1st, 3rd & 5th.

With practice rules, a young QB, Bill being Bill. Winning the job outright and clean is huge. Remember you're winning the locker room too and Cam is the incumbent. Bill won't give a rookie meaningful snaps unless he's special. So a quick reasoning on how I see that ...

Fields comes in as arguably the best pocket passer in the draft that can handle everything from designed runs to making something out of nothing with his legs. + arm talent which doesn't get talked enough about. Velocity, arm angles, touch, placement, accuracy. He has it all and arm strength is one of the easiest things to improve. He could touching 65+ in a year or two. Decision making and accuracy stand out. He can go through reads, work concepts, bait defenders ... Mechanics are good but could improve as could his trigger and pocket awareness but he's so freaking talented. He's ready and has a ton of upside. I compared him to Watson before he played in college and has that type of upside. Everything I've read and heard points to him being smart, hard working and very coachable. Throw in the fact that he's done everything hes done and handled his medical situation the way he has and it adds up. If available absolutely go get.

Lance definitely needs time but his upside and peak are worth it. We have the pieces in place to make it work in terms coaching-staff, potentially great OL & running game.

Forget about potential, let's talk right now. Lance is raw but everything points to him being very intelligent, poised and ready for this challenge. That's not breaking news to anyone reading my post & threads. From film study-tendency habits, working with multiple QB/OL coaches, to the news about his interviews it's clear he's bright and wants to learn-get better.

Lance will be 20. His skill-set is filthy, incredible arm talent, pocket presence-poise, decision making and play making ability. He has obvious concerns but so does everyone but everyone's peak isn't a potential top 10-12 QB in the NFL. Old school & new school should like Lance a lot. Well spoken, tough, tough young kid that plays in the I-under center and looks like prototype. Clean mechanics-that could get better, ++ pocket presence, comfortable moving & adjusting both pre & post snap. Smart, loves the game & has as much potential as any QB in the class. Not everyone starts at the same point, takes a straight path. He sure didn't. This is about trajectory and projection. Not what happened in college.

Ultimately if I'm arguing for him it's his A)decision making - he's shown the ability to make great choices, safe choices, the right choices. Raw but he's displayed + decision making and poise to where he won't hurt you.
B)Back to poise and pocket presence. Arguably the best in the draft and of course everyone can improve. These two might go together but he won't panic, make dumb decisions and turn the ball over.
C)Some might not like hearing this but it's only football for crying out loud. He's an elite running threat. The power game you could get going could be elite behind a great OL & another strong RB. That translates right away and with a little creativity we could make some noise.
D)Plenty of ability in the pocket for early on. And like Fields he's tough as hell. He's not afraid of the room and isn't afraid of situation. Both guys have shown a lot of mental and physical toughness imo.

Jones has little upside but is seemingly NFL-ready to take over the controls and drive a supercar to finish line. You're betting on him mastering the nuances and developing killer instincts pre/post snap. That's going to be his calling card, the stuff upstairs. He's not going to make players around him better with his physical abilities but should be a steady hand on the wheel that won't panic, lose confidence or hurt you. Jones has very good accuracy, touch & placement in most areas and isn't afraid to pull the trigger and let it fly. His release isn't as fast as it could be and arm talent is definitely limited but both are good enough and could improve. He'll look at a lot better than Cam in practice imo, esp as things progress and have no problems making friends on the team. Everything I've heard is he's a likable person. That said you're not winning bc of him. Before the playoffs you're looking at the division. Assuming he goes 49ers? Are you taking him over Wilson, Stafford or Murray??? That's the thing with Jones. Everything around him has to +++ for it to work each week at the highest level. Not much room for error. Is he leading you back when you're down and the run game ain't working? What about when the OL is beat up and he has to really feel pressure and manipulate a pocket? Legit concerns if you've watched, especially when the closer the pressure is around him but he's more than capable of being a good QB.

So I absolutely believe we're in the hunt for a QB but Bill isn't unloading picks for anyone even Lawrence imo. Like multiple 1st, 2nd & such. I'm not sure he would for anyone. I could be very wrong. We'll need some luck but it's very possible we land a QB bc of the landscape in the top ten.

After that my gut says we trade down but if we don't and even if we do we might end up with ...
Chase
Slater
Horn
AVT
Surtain
Waddle
Collins
JOK
Phillips
Oweh
Paye
Nixon
Jenkins
Newsome
Stokes
 
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I have a few questions for the board on the QB situation.

a. The so called common wisdom or narration has profiled Mack Jones as the pro ready accurate "system" QB with moderate to poor avoidance abilty who is the favorite to go to SF at 3 on Thursday. Fields is the uber physically talented QB in the Cam Newton mold who is going to need time to develop into a "true" NFL QB.

Then I read where PFF did a study that threw that narrative in the ****ter. They studied the top 9 QB's accuracy based on a LOT of factors and came up with the numbers that had Fields rated the 2nd or 3rd most accurate passer and had Jones rated 9th I think (also IIRC Lawrence didn't fair all that well either. 6th I think) Even Lance did better though the competition and number of throws were low. I'd be surprised if the well read guys that are here haven't read or heard of that study.

So here's my question. After I heard those stats, I figured that SF's real target all along is Fields and Jones is the smoke screen. And for a while all the prognosticators and the oddsmakers seemed to think Fields was SF's guy. But now for some reason that I don't understand Jones seems to be gaining with the oddsmakers and draft gurus and I don't know WHY?

Help me out here. In a lot of years Jones would be a late 2nd or 3rd round prospect for all the reasons that have been talked about for months. Given the reality that he's HASN'T been the most accurate QB, or even close to it of the first 5 crop, WHY is he unlikely to get out of the top 10. Was the PFF study flawed, or badly done. Why is Jones still being equated to Fields and what has Fields done to make the gurus think that he'd POSSIBLY get into a range where he'd be available to the Pats. Personally I'd rate him as #3 and Jones and Lance are a good sized gap below Fields.

In the end I don't think we are going to get a QB with our first round pick so its all kind of moot, though I bet either Jones or Lance (probably Lance) will be there a 15 and BB will pass.

As to ****erson. Like all the top OLmen that Pats will have the opportunity to get in the first 2 rounds, he is a luxury we can't afford this season. Our current OL has 5 strong starters (Brown, Mason, Andrews, Owenu, and Wynn and 3 guys who look like solid depth pieces in Karras, E;iumaneur. amd Herron with Cajuste being a darkhorse to be a 4th guy. Yeah I know about Brown's one year deal and Wynn's rookie contract, but Brown WANTS to be here. He already proved that, and if we see a similar year as in 2018 he WILL get paid as he should, but it would be a deal timed to big Cap boost that will happen in 2023. Same for Wynn.

I don't hate OLmen, but we have a chance to get a top 3 LB, edge player, and or WR. Even a CB seems a luxury given the the top 2 QB's will be gone before 15 and Farley is a bigger injury risk than ****erson.

Right bow my favorite scenario is a trade down to the 20's and pick up another low second or high 3 and pick ZCollins there Sounds like a freek athlete without the off field risks Parson's has. Then we can use the extra pick to maneuver in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to get Trask or Monde. So in my ideal world we end the 3rd round with a top 3 LB, a top 10 WR, and Monde or Trask plus another pick
Ken you have to start reading the thread this has been talked about a lot lol. I wrote about Fields a few times and covered all this. A lot of those stats have been posted. Too late to look now but maybe the first page of the newest thread.
Honestly though I've been saying Fields is the most accurate, best pocket passer in the draft that ran arguably the most complex system for months now. He had the most air yards out of the big names. Like 60% of Jones passes were screens, behind the line, rpo. Lived off yac. Truthfully not many NFL passes in a consistent basis although they were obviously there. Another thing a lot of people don't bring up is spacing. A lot different in college with the hashes. That shows up.

Honestly though all this has been covered to the those that paid attention and who weren't drinking and playing poker while class was in session :)
 
If Lance drops to 15 call it a day.Just watched his 2nd pro day and listened to him speak. If there's a QB in this draft that would get a lot out of sitting behind Cam and picking his brain it's Lance. If this kid hits, we're good for the rest of the decade IMO.
 
I only added Fields & Lance but I'm putting together another vertical board, BPA based. It'll post it tomorrow night sometime. Shouldn't be long since names are already there. Probably 1 or 2 new ones.
 
Ken you have to start reading the thread this has been talked about a lot lol. I wrote about Fields a few times and covered all this. A lot of those stats have been posted. Too late to look now but maybe the first page of the newest thread.
Honestly though I've been saying Fields is the most accurate, best pocket passer in the draft that ran arguably the most complex system for months now. He had the most air yards out of the big names. Like 60% of Jones passes were screens, behind the line, rpo. Lived off yac. Truthfully not many NFL passes in a consistent basis although they were obviously there. Another thing a lot of people don't bring up is spacing. A lot different in college with the hashes. That shows up.

Honestly though all this has been covered to the those that paid attention and who weren't drinking and playing poker while class was in session :)
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I would take Fields over Lance anyday, twice on Thursdays.

I just don't see the Pats moving up for either one of them, if Fields fell to them and nobody blew them away with a trade offer, then yeah take him. He has decent size, and is a great athlete. They will have to somehow de-ohio state him. As none of their QBs has ever done a thing in the NFL, maybe because he started at Georgia, he won't be totalled submerged in the Ohio St. stank.

I just can't get the love for Lance, he played against zero competition, and has only started 17 games. No way I would take him in the first round, let alone mortgage the future for him. Nobody can say what he will do because frankly he has nver played against anything close to NFL talent. These guys are used to running away from defensive lineman, well in the NFL they catch you!

I think BB hangs around until he sees who drops to 15, if Horn, Surtain, Smith, and Waddle are all gone by then. I think he trades back and picks up additional picks in roudns 2 and 3.
 
Ken you have to start reading the thread this has been talked about a lot lol. I wrote about Fields a few times and covered all this. A lot of those stats have been posted. Too late to look now but maybe the first page of the newest thread.
Honestly though I've been saying Fields is the most accurate, best pocket passer in the draft that ran arguably the most complex system for months now. He had the most air yards out of the big names. Like 60% of Jones passes were screens, behind the line, rpo. Lived off yac. Truthfully not many NFL passes in a consistent basis although they were obviously there. Another thing a lot of people don't bring up is spacing. A lot different in college with the hashes. That shows up.
Honestly I'm really confused now after listening to a Chris Sims pod on PFT. Disclaimer: I really respect Sim's QB analysis. He knows the position, he watches film. In other words he puts in the work before he makes his opinions. At any rate he does a mock (where he has the Pats moving up to 11 to grab waddel) But as he goes on he has Fields dropping like a stone into the mid 20's. Earlier this week Bucky Brooks had Fields dropping as well and suggested the Ravens pick him and move on from Jackson before he hits is big contract. (plug and play). Interestingly Sim feels Jackson was a better prospect going in.

But in Sims defense he just doesn't say his hot take and move on. He takes the time to explain why. And he goes on to go into a discussion of Fields' delivery. He describes a hitch and a tendency to be all arm and not using his body. He goes into elbow positioning and other reasons why Fields might have an accuracy problem at the next level and why it will be critical to him to go to a team who has an excellent QB coach who understands the mechanics of passing. (He also bemoans how FEW coaches there are in the NFL who do understand passing, which is why so many QB work with outside specialists)

So here I am again...... feeling lost and confused. Is this the same Fields who PFF said was one of the MOST accurate passer in this QB class. OR is this a decent prospect who is likely to be there at 15 for the Pats and most boards have him rated as an end of the first round talent. Yesterday I would have been THRILLED to get Fields at 15 thinking there is no way he'll even get close to that point. Now 24 hours later the talk is the Pats could drop into the 20's and still get him.

So tell me Bacon. Is Sims full of it or are there real issues in this kid's delivery.

BTW- I saw this factoid somewhere In this century there have been 10 QB's picked 2-5. Only TWO have worked out as promised (Rivers and Ryan) So having a top 5 pick is no guarantee of success. though the top pick has a better chance. 2-5 have been very iffy with just a 20% success rate over the last 20 years

OK I've vented. Set me straight buddy. (or anyone else for that matter, ;) )
 


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