Is Trey Lance worth Patriots to trade up to get?

[Rob0729]

Odds are good that Lance will go with the fourth pick in the draft whether Atlanta takes him or trades the pick. Trading up to 4 from 15 would take a lot of draft capital. Not impossible, but the Pats have to be sure that Lance is the real deal because it is going to cost them three first rounders and several other good picks to get Lance.

 

[Rob0729]

Fields is from Georgia and Falcons fans want him taken to replace Ryan some day. Only thing is the Falcons have Ryan under contract through 2023, and they may only be able to stomach the cap hit if they wait until that 2023 season to get rid of him. That means either sitting on Fields for two years or having an expensive franchise icon in Ryan as the backup. Would also mean Ryan would have to look over his shoulder whenever he has a bad game as I’m sure the locals would be ready to see their homegrown young prodigy step in.

If that is the scenario and we see Lawrence, Wilson, Jones, and Fields all go four consecutive picks, then we’re in trouble if the aim is to get one of those top 5. That leaves just Lance and there are many interested suitors. So I hope Atlanta goes with Pitts.

The whole X player is from the state of the NFL team is overrated. You rarely see teams factor that into the equation. Most players play for teams that are not in their home states and even spent their entire lives up to the point they became a player from that team rooting against that team. It is an added benefit if the high pick is a hometown boy, but rarely a factor.

Hell, the last time I can even remember a high pick being from the area he was drafted and was a big deal was I think Cam Newton.

 

[Lansdowne]

A jump to #4 is going to be too expensive. Atlanta will demand #15 and the next two years' 1sts plus maybe other picks, which is what SF had to pay to move from 12 to 3. One of the reasons our roster was so tired was because we lost two 1st rounders in recent years: one to Deflategate, and the other spent on Harry that has not worked out. So sacrificing two 1sts is gonna get you eventually. Can anyone think of an example of a team that gave up two additional 1sts for a draftee and was successful thereafter?

Not counting the recent 49ers deal with the Dolphins, there is only one precedent involving three 1sts (1 in current draft, 2 in future drafts) and that’s when the Redskins traded their 1sts for 2012, 2013, and 2014 to the Rams so they could take Robert Griffin III at 2nd overall.

And while he may seem like a cautionary tale, RG3 had a great rookie season. He earned Rookie of the Year and Pro Bowl honors. The Redskins won their division for the first time in 13 years. Everything was looking up and RG3 was looking worth every bit of the gamble...until .

Robert Griffin III injury history: How knee, ankle, concussion issues derailed a promising career | Sporting News

www.sportingnews.com

Dec. 9, 2012: Grade 1 Right LCL Sprain​

Griffin took a hit directly to his right knee from Baltimore defensive tackle Haloti Ngata. He remained in the game and was visibly limping around the field. Only about a month later did USA Today report that Dr. James Andrews hadn't given permission for Griffin to stay in the game.

Jan. 6, 2013: Torn Right ACL, LCL and Meniscus​

Griffin hurt his right knee more seriously in the Wild-Card Round of the playoffs against the Seahawks, requiring major offseason surgery. Griffin admitted after the game that he "did put myself at more risk by being out there.”

He was never the same after that, but you can’t assume everyone will suffer that same fate. Had he not got that injury he could’ve been a star for multiple years. Could be poor performance (Ryan Leaf), could be lack of effort (JaMarcus Russell), could be freak injury (Robert Griffin III). Sure things don’t exist when it comes to prospects, but there are those who more resemble sure things than others, and that’s why sometimes you take the gamble.

Edit - I forgot about the Herschel Walker trade which was comically bad

 

[Give Kraft A Hand]

Rather have Fields. I think that kid is going to be a star. I guess either is better than washed up Cam Newton though.

 

[Lansdowne]

The whole X player is from the state of the NFL team is overrated. You rarely see teams factor that into the equation. Most players play for teams that are not in their home states and even spent their entire lives up to the point they became a player from that team rooting against that team. It is an added benefit if the high pick is a hometown boy, but rarely a factor.

Hell, the last time I can even remember a high pick being from the area he was drafted and was a big deal was I think Cam Newton.

Cam is from Atlanta and was taken by Carolina, who plays 400 miles away. Not really the same deal. But I agree with you that it’s not usually going to influence the team drafting. It would be a boon to jersey sales, but how much will it help the team is the question. I think it depends how long they think Ryan has left playing at a relatively high level, and if a guy like Pitts can extend his shelf life or not.

 

[Rob0729]

Cam is from Atlanta and was taken by Carolina, who plays 400 miles away. Not really the same deal. But I agree with you that it’s not usually going to influence the team drafting. It would be a boon to jersey sales, but how much will it help the team is the question. I think it depends how long they think Ryan has left playing at a relatively high level, and if a guy like Pitts can extend his shelf life or not.

Sorry, I thought it was Cam. I am not sure who I am thinking of. It was a QB in the south a number of years ago. But that shows you how much of a big deal it is when I cannot even remember who it was.

But jersey sales are revenue shared.

 

[jboston19]

Julius Peppers played at NC and went to the Panthers. Maybe it is he that you’re thinking of?

 

[Lansdowne]

Sorry, I thought it was Cam. I am not sure who I am thinking of. It was a QB in the south a number of years ago. But that shows you how much of a big deal it is when I cannot even remember who it was.

But jersey sales are revenue shared.

I seem to remember Texans fans wanted them to draft Vince Young out of Texas (born and raised in Houston...many wanted Reggie Bush as well to be fair but I saw plenty of support for taking VY), but they went with Mario Williams instead. Which goes to your point of teams ignoring that sort of thing.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

No....Lawrence is the only can’t miss

none of the other ones are worth giving up 3-4 potential starters....Fields is intriguing but the other ones may as well all be josh rosens until proven otherwise

I don't even think Lawrence is can't miss. Is he the top prospect in this class? Absolutely. Is he flawless? Nope. He's got some room to grow when it comes to processing blitzes. Sometimes he doesn't step up when he should, he occasionally shortens his delivery when rushed and goes off target, he doesn't always use enough touch -- just rockets the ball into tight windows and sets his receivers up for big hits -- and he's too reckless as a runner (similar to Josh Allen). When it works out, he's dazzling, but he exposes himself to some huge hits that he probably shouldn't. I'm not suggesting that he'll bust, but he's not as polished as I'd expect from a "generational" talent, to be honest. He's good, no doubt, and I expect that he'll have a strong career, but I don't think he'll be a top 3 QB.

 

[jah]

I don't even think Lawrence is can't miss. Is he the top prospect in this class? Absolutely. Is he flawless? Nope. He's got some room to grow when it comes to processing blitzes. Sometimes he doesn't step up when he should, he occasionally shortens his delivery when rushed and goes off target, he doesn't always use enough touch -- just rockets the ball into tight windows and sets his receivers up for big hits -- and he's too reckless as a runner (similar to Josh Allen). When it works out, he's dazzling, but he exposes himself to some huge hits that he probably shouldn't. I'm not suggesting that he'll bust, but he's not as polished as I'd expect from a "generational" talent, to be honest. He's good, no doubt, and I expect that he'll have a strong career, but I don't think he'll be a top 3 QB.

I'll take it a step further: there is no such thing as a can't miss draft prospect.

 

[BTTA]

The chances of a guy you take in the second round becoming a top 10 QB are minute.
The real question is what is a better team. One with a top 10 QB or one that stinks at the QB spot but got to make a couple more draft picks?
If you don’t draft the qb you have little if any chance of ending up with a top one. If you don’t draft one at the top of the first round you have little if any chance of getting one.
Of course QBs are over drafted. They are so important the cost is high. But rather than looking it as requiring a “sure thing” when there really isn’t suck a thing, it should be looked at the other way, if you don’t go get a top prospect (which then becomes your coaching staffs job to develop) it’s pretty much a sure thing you will continue to suck at the most important position, won’t win, and those picks you saved won’t matter any way.

What if the primary reason that 1st round drafted QB's are more successful is because the teams put far more resources and patience into them than they do QB's drafted later?

Just to say, this isn't a simple science with binary choices.

 

[Ollie]

If you don't have a franchise QB and think you can get a franchise QB in the draft, you get him.

Dugger, Harry, Wynn, Rivers, Jones, Brown, Easely, Collins, Jones, Solder....

Those are the first picks made by NE in the last 10 drafts. Don't tell me any 3 or 4 of those is worth more than a franchise QB.

If you are selecting the 4th or 5th best qb in the draft how sure are you that he is going to be a franchise qb? Its that balance that is the key to this. you might trade up giving up a tonne of picks for a guy that ends up being less useful than most of the above list.

 

[Kdo5]

A jump to #4 is going to be too expensive. Atlanta will demand #15 and the next two years' 1sts plus maybe other picks, which is what SF had to pay to move from 12 to 3. One of the reasons our roster was so tired was because we lost two 1st rounders in recent years: one to Deflategate, and the other spent on Harry that has not worked out. So sacrificing two 1sts is gonna get you eventually. Can anyone think of an example of a team that gave up two additional 1sts for a draftee and was successful thereafter?

It’s not too expensive if BB and our scouts feel they have a guy out of the top QBs.

 

[Ollie]

Odds are good that Lance will go with the fourth pick in the draft whether Atlanta takes him or trades the pick. Trading up to 4 from 15 would take a lot of draft capital. Not impossible, but the Pats have to be sure that Lance is the real deal because it is going to cost them three first rounders and several other good picks to get Lance.

You can never be sure and in Lance's case i think it's even more uncertain,

 

[sean10mm]

The truth is that nobody can scout QBs worth a crap, beyond filtering out absolute turbo clowns like Christian Hackenberg.*

*Unless you're the Jets lol

I mean Mahomes fell to 10th overall, the fact that teams couldn't tell he was better than *checks notes* MITCHELL TRUBISKY ARE YOU EFFIN KIDDING ME?!?!? says it all about the ability of NFL teams to extrapolate college QB play into the pros. Basically every single team from 1-9 should have taken him if they had any concept of what he actually was, and almost everyone after that should have tried to trade up ahead of the Chiefs to get him too. But of course that didn't happen.

I'm not that fixated on Lance personally, but if the Pats think he can be the guy, they absolutely should go get him, and to be honest they should overpay without blinking unless it's just comical Herschel Walker trade levels of dumb. It's innately a gamble but you miss every shot you don't take.

 

[PowerRunRevival]

I want to see the Pats draft a high ceiling QB. Lance, and Fields are both guys who could slip out of the top 3. If Mac Jones really goes 3, then both those guys should be available after 3.

If the Pats can move up ahead of Denver I think they can draft one of those players and I would welcome it. With a first round rookie QB on the team, I would feel so much better about the long term future of the team so from my perspective trading up is worth it.

 

[Ring 6]

What if the primary reason that 1st round drafted QB's are more successful is because the teams put far more resources and patience into them than they do QB's drafted later?

Just to say, this isn't a simple science with binary choices.

I mean do you really believe teams coach players based upon where they were drafted?
If that were the case why? Wouldn’t it be because players drafted higher have more skill?
Im not sure why you bring up resources but perhaps there is more patience for a higher skilled player but that’s not an excuse, it’s warranted and also demonstrates another reason you have to draft the talented player

Ultimately in my view the most important factor in the development of a qb is the coaching they receive. And everyone from a #1 pick to an udfa has that opportunity to absorb the and develop.

Do you have examples of players who were drafted late and could have become top 10 qbs but their team didn’t have patience that we could discuss?

 

[lancerman]

If you are selecting the 4th or 5th best qb in the draft how sure are you that he is going to be a franchise qb? Its that balance that is the key to this. you might trade up giving up a tonne of picks for a guy that ends up being less useful than most of the above list.

You aren’t ever sure. But there’s no guarantee you are getting 3 or 4 starters with the picks you need to trade to get him.

 

[moosekill]

I mean do you really believe teams coach players based upon where they were drafted?
If that were the case why? Wouldn’t it be because players drafted higher have more skill?
Im not sure why you bring up resources but perhaps there is more patience for a higher skilled player but that’s not an excuse, it’s warranted and also demonstrates another reason you have to draft the talented player

Ultimately in my view the most important factor in the development of a qb is the coaching they receive. And everyone from a #1 pick to an udfa has that opportunity to absorb the and develop.

Do you have examples of players who were drafted late and could have become top 10 qbs but their team didn’t have patience that we could discuss?

It doesn't work that way because they are out of football. If Brady hadn't been selected by the pats he would never have played a snap in the nfl.

 

[Ollie]

I mean do you really believe teams coach players based upon where they were drafted?
If that were the case why? Wouldn’t it be because players drafted higher have more skill?
Im not sure why you bring up resources but perhaps there is more patience for a higher skilled player but that’s not an excuse, it’s warranted and also demonstrates another reason you have to draft the talented player

Ultimately in my view the most important factor in the development of a qb is the coaching they receive. And everyone from a #1 pick to an udfa has that opportunity to absorb the and develop.

Do you have examples of players who were drafted late and could have become top 10 qbs but their team didn’t have patience that we could discuss?

I think it's reasonable to assume a first round pick qb gets more time to prove himself than a lower round pick with less expectation. It's very hard to prove but you will stick with someone you saw something initially and wan't to prove your original judgment is correct. Most guys who are drafted late and weren't successful straight away won't get a second chance i would guess so it's quite difficult to prover.