Trade up now or wait

[DropKickFlutie]

That and also one of the best college passing seasons ever, in the toughest college conference, then a flawless playoffs and national championship, then crushing Senior Day, and 2 pro day workouts.

.

 

[mgteich]

Peoples opinions of where someone will be drafted is not the same as them being drafted there.

OK, when do you expect the fifth QB to be picked?

 

[Sicilian]

The key is to maximize the certainty. The higher the draft pick the more likely they find success. If you have few needs, which they do this year it makes more sense to maximize the certainty, because some players that might ordinarily make the team won't this year because there isn't the need.

See, I disagree. If you're looking for players that can contribute this year or next, you mitigate the risk by increasing your opportunities. Pick someone at 15 for sure, because there's likely to be some good players there that you can feel pretty certain about. But after that? Either take as many players as you can, or kick the can down the road to next year and try again when you have more spots open to competition and more information on the rookies you're drafting.

 

[mgteich]

Interesting point at the end about 2022 after the splurge on free agents in 2021. Trading down and out with a couple of the 2021 picks to stockpile for 2022 is a good idea, particularly for value picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds in 2022.

Piling up future picks is also a smart trade strategy.

This thread is dominated by the QB discussion which makes sense, but I think BB holds tight, sees who is there at 15, 46 and 96. If the QB he wants is not on the board, my guess is that we may see a couple of free agents cut by teams after they secure their "future franchise QB" in the draft. All these guys like Minshew, Darnold, Garoppolo, Lock, Jones, Watson will be attainable with the right offer. Holding good picks for 2022 increases the possibility of bringing in one of those guys after the draft

So, we have needs in 2022.

Belichick's plan is usually is to try to draft a year ahead, and have the player develop a year before he is expected to start or have a of reps.

You strategy is to trade those picks into the next year, and to start rookies.

I choose Belichick's strategy.

 

[mgteich]

See, I disagree. If you're looking for players that can contribute this year or next, you mitigate the risk by increasing your opportunities. Pick someone at 15 for sure, because there's likely to be some good players there that you can feel pretty certain about. But after that? Either take as many players as you can, or kick the can down the road to next year and try again when you have more spots open to competition and more information on the rookies you're drafting.

So, no quarterbacks. Ok. Then, I would likely trade down at 15, unless Bill really likes one of the available corners. Waddle and Parsons will be long gone.

 

[Ring 6]

OK, when do you expect the fifth QB to be picked?

I don’t know. We will find out when the pick is in. Im saying where Jones will be drafted does change with rumors, people’s guesses change.

 

[Kontradiction]

I agree that we need a top quality QB but it seems like we would be trying to buy a house in the 2008 housing market this season. This seems like the year to get a higher valued position player while all the desperate teams make a run at five Qbs.

Draft two later round QB prospects. We need to improve on QB2 as well.

Trade into next year's draft and give yourself some additional fire power to move up and get a QB.

Anyway three first round picks to move up to get the fourth best or drafted QB makes little sense to me and more like a desperation move.

If three first round picks gave us the pick of the litter then I'd be all for it.

What I’d be willing to part with without getting upset would be next year’s first, this year’s second, and next year’s second. Anything more than that and I’ll have concerns about the team getting set back while the rookie quarterback develops.

 

[Hyped]

What I’d be willing to part with without getting upset would be next year’s first, this year’s second, and next year’s second. Anything more than that and I’ll have concerns about the team getting set back while the rookie quarterback develops.

Agree. Ideally, I think 1,2,3, and a 2022 1 would be the best. We have a loaded roster already...and all rookies will have a hard time making the club. I can live with drafting #64 next year....

 

[Ring 6]

What I’d be willing to part with without getting upset would be next year’s first, this year’s second, and next year’s second. Anything more than that and I’ll have concerns about the team getting set back while the rookie quarterback develops.

But remember you have a QBs under a rookie contract so you are saving a lot of money on that spot compared to other teams so you gave the ability to use the difference to sign a free agent in place of the pick you’ve traded.
Its all interrelated. The only thing that matters is the end product, there can be many different recipes.
The one variable that you can’t overcome is a bad QB and you have 2 choices; pay through the teeth or hope you get lucky.
Belichick just demonstrated how to overcome gaps in your draft. The cardinals traded up to get Rosen them dumped him to get Murray. Murray isn’t exactly a superstar but despite using a lot of picks to get to him they are a competent coach away from contending.
We stayed competitive for years drafting from a spot where we picked at the end of every round which is the equivalent of a bad team trading away all their # 1s.
There are ways of overcoming a lack of picks there is no way to overcome a crappy qb

 

[moosekill]

The key is to maximize the certainty. The higher the draft pick the more likely they find success. If you have few needs, which they do this year it makes more sense to maximize the certainty, because some players that might ordinarily make the team won't this year because there isn't the need.

See, I disagree. If you're looking for players that can contribute this year or next, you mitigate the risk by increasing your opportunities. Pick someone at 15 for sure, because there's likely to be some good players there that you can feel pretty certain about. But after that? Either take as many players as you can, or kick the can down the road to next year and try again when you have more spots open to competition and more information on the rookies you're drafting.

Using your logic you should trade your second and third round picks for 6 and 7th round picks. So you end up with 30 picks instead of 10 picks. It doesn't make sense.

I don't disagree with kicking it down the road, but i am not really sure how many openings you will have next year.

 

[Tony2046]

The main issue I see with the OP premise, as others have pointed out, there's no guarantee "your guy" will be there, even at #4.

This is just as likely a scenario as any:

#1 - JAX: Trevor Lawrence
#2 - NYJ: Zach Wilson

#3 - CAR: Justin Fields. MIA trades down to #8 where they get one of top 2 WRs + a bunch of CAR picks. CAR is desperate and will sell out to move up 5 spots.

#4 - SF: Trey Lance. ATL trades down to #12 where they can get a top EDGE + some nice SF picks. SF wants to move on from Jimmy in 2022 and Lance offers a great replacement.

Mac Jones should be available at #15 if Patriots are interested in him. If not, they can pick one of the top WRs, trade down or into 2022.

Pretty freaking close.

 

[aluminum seats]

Pretty freaking close.

Seriously. Good call @venecol (and well done not bumping it yourself)