Not to single you out too much but I read this opinion over and over again and it’s just wrong on so many levels. Why is what round a player is drafted matter? Would Brady have been any better a player if he was drafted #1 overall instead of #199 like he would be in a redraft of the 2000 draft? I would in fact argue he might have been worse based on personality, as he used that slight as fuel to work harder. Now Brady is the biggest outlier in draft history so not a reasonable comparison you might say, fair enough.
Let’s go to this years draft and say the big 4 are off the board at 15. Is Mac Jones a better player because he was taken in the first round instead of, let’s assume a small trade up in the 2nd is necessary, at pick 40? No in fact he is worse because now he costs you 5 million a year instead of 1. All a draft pick represents is potential. As soon as you assign a name to that pick there is now a set benefit to that pick. Assume the TE Pitt is still there at 15 and goes on to have a 7time pro bowl career, the only thing picking Jones does is have people post draft question why you passed on him. As soon as you draft a position, even as important as QB, instead of the player who will help your team the most, you start a slippery slide to becoming the Jets.
Now to your last comment that first round QBs rarely miss. Please tell me you don’t actually believe that? It’s a 50/50 shot at best and I would bet you a lot that at least one of the top 4 is going to be a bust and even then that would make it a hell of a draft class as it’s more likely 2 or 3 of them will not live up to their draft status. Let’s look at the best class in the past 20 years 2004. Eli, Big Ben, and Rivers. How happy would you be with one of those 3? 2 SBs with Eli or Ben and a long career of just good enough to give you hope in Rivers. Far more typical is 2017 with Trubisky, Watson, Kizer, and Mahomes. Underwhelming starter, great player that does nothing adding to wins, total bust, and best qb in the game. 2016 was Goff, Wentz, and Lynch, nothing special there. 2015 Winston and Mariota, again nothing special. 2014 Bortles, Manziel, and Bridgewater where the best one was drafted last and even he is alright at best.
2012 is probably the best comparison to this year in that you have the generational talent in Luck, a interesting debate for number 2 in Griffin, with solid starters in Tanahill and Weeden. Luck was good but never in the discussion for best in the league, Griffin got hurt and is hanging on as a crap back up, Weeden was a huge bust, and Tanahill is currently the best of the bunch. My point is no QB taken is a sure thing no matter where you draft them and wasting a ton of draft capital for a “sure thing” is a waste of resources. You are better off building a super team while you keep trying to find the next Brady, Wilson, Warner, hell even Dak.