Not only do I think the Bucs will win, I think they’ll win by at least two scores. Their defense will probably be brain dead, with Bowles going with that stupid two deep zone against a QB who can’t push the ball downfield anymore without putting a ton of air under it. I think that will keep New Orleans in the game late, but I think they’ll be too much for the Saints this time. Marpet is healthy and the OL has done a good job of protecting Brady of late. The Saints best shot is to get after him with their front four and flood everything between the numbers with 6-7 defenders. That will be a harder task this time around. With Brown fully integrated into the offense, I don’t see how New Orleans can go man-to-man. Lattimore usually has his way with Evans, and CJ Gardner-Johnson is no slouch on the other side, but he’s no match for Brown if Brady is given time. So I see Allen going with a lot of zone and forcing Brady and Arians to be patient enough to drive the length of the field. That will work against them as Brady will happily take that. Death by a thousand paper cuts. Even if Jones is healthy, Fournette should get the majority of the snaps. He’s a better pass protector and is the more dangerous back between the tackles. In all, I think this contest will be closer to the Week 1 meeting (with the result flipped) than the Week 10 contest. But I don’t see Brady throwing two picks here, let alone a pick-6.
If Goff were 100%, I could see an angle where the Rams would pull off an upset. They can go man-to-man with Green Bay and Adams will have a tough day at the office against Ramsey. They’ll slow the Packers down, but won’t be able to put enough points on the board to win. Their best shot is to hammer at them with Akers, bleed the clock, and play for field position. The Packers will probably come at them with a lot of Cover-1 Man Under and try to force Goff into pushing the ball downfield in obvious passing situations. Even when healthy, he’s an erratic at best QB on those lower percentage throws. Packers pull away late.
While the Browns should hopefully be over the worst of their Covid issues, I think they’ll come out flat. This was a huge emotional win for them and they’ll have a hard time refocusing. “Shortening the game” against QBs like Mahomes and Brady is overrated. Many times, this still works to their advantage. Cleveland’s defense is not equipped to stop KC, either. They’ll double Garrett and Mahomes will have enough time to get another one of his stupid ****ing haircuts in the pocket before finding the open man. KC is favored by 9.5. If I bet on sports, I’d take the over.
Ravens/Bills is the toughest game for me to call because this one, more than the others, depends on who will win up front. The Ravens whipped the Titans on both sides of the ball. If they can make Buffalo one-dimensional, they have the defense to slow down Allen and Diggs. The Bills are a middling, at best, run D. Jackson and Co. will have quite a few opportunities to do some damage there. The Bills do have a decent pass defense, though. If they’re able to create turnovers, it’ll do the Ravens in (as long as Allen doesn’t give it right back to them). I guess I’ll take Buffalo here, but I’m not at all confident in this prediction.
