Life will be different for a while. All aspects. We can’t possibly know what is to come, but if history is an indicator, this will pass...
Our provincial head Dr, in today’s press briefing, made reference to 1-3 years. Ugh. Sure hope things calm down before then.
I was hearing 2 years. Being that we are only 6 months in, that sure seems very daunting. So many mixed reports, Being a NY'er, things seem to be opening up after such a horrible 4 months, so many people got sick, so many died. I ate at an outdoor restaurant this past weekend, first time I've been to a restaurant in 6 months. Yet I'm hearing indoor dining will resume soon. Sure, if indoor dining resumes, it will be at a small percentage of occupancy. But it will be some sense of normalcy.
I have a feeling it'll be the same thing at training camp next summer. If we are still fighting this horrible disease, they may allow 20%-30% occupancy of fans. Hopefully we will have a vaccine and/or successful treatment by spring, and everyone will be inoculated.
From your keyboard to God's monitor. The main thing is, let's all hope that we've just got the greatest most complete response EVAH by then, and that our ability to respond is what we always thought before this present moment (that is, we're this technological powerhouse that can do anything etc.)
Precautions are all we have right now, really. (Unproven but promising convalescent plasma -- recently recategorized without proof when it was accessible without such recategorization... some effect from remdesivir... but no cure, no vaccine, no "silver bullets.")
Thing is, people want the future to be like the pre-COVID past. Maybe in NZ. I dunno, here.
We know a little bit more than zero -
- there are vaccine candidates starting large scale human trials. We don't know how they'll do. We know they're starting this phase of trials. That's a different place from where we were in March... We know they're "challenge trials," an aggressive route best described as human experimentation.
- We know that the safety/efficacy protocols have been changed, and that there is ongoing political pressure on the CDC to be "done" sooner, whatever the specific topic...
- We know that the CDC has been instructed to reduce testing, in line with the "slow the testing down" line from the rallies
- We know that, by the way, the level of testing in the U.S. needs to be enormous, because the level of infection is enormous. You know, so we're all liberated. That's how we have "testing like nobody thought was possible etc." and surprise, surprise, it's still not enough.
- We know that the vaccines going through final large scale testing are said to have done great at the small scale -- and that's a good thing, reserving whatever level asterisk you feel this administration has earned for politically unbiased evidence-based response.
- THE MAIN ISSUES EVEN IF EVERYBODY HAS THE BEST MOTIVATIONS:
1) We're thinking of getting a vaccine that's 100% effective or somewhere close, with no adverse effects. A lot changes if we get that. But much less changes if it's 50% effective.
2) We don't know how long immunity lasts with COVID, i.e., can you just catch it again and if so, after how long.
The "MAIN ISSUES" for the first wave of serious countermeasures beyond social distancing and masking will determine how much we'll all be dependent on the latter "low tech" solutions which just keep our droplets away from each other.
So think of the extent to which we can "get back to normal" as a function of when it will be safe to act like nothing's happening.
(With social distancing/masks as the definition of not acting like nothing's happening, that applies to everything: sports, safely dining out, the economic effects of each choice, etc. You can only safely get "back to normal" when we have the scientific breakthroughs to really get past the need for distancing and masks.)
There is one other option, to get everybody sick, a favorite topic of various internet trolls, some quite well placed. (They act like they know a big sciency theory called "herd immunity" when they say this. Herd immunity means so many people are sick, the virus generally stops finding new victims. Of course, this only works if catching it once makes you immune--an unproven wish. You don't "go for" herd immunity.... you are granted it by the grace of God after effing up every possible legit response.)
So yeah it would be good to have football again. I've written this season off, but if there is a season and a super bowl, okay. Time doesn't just stop.
I fear that the NFL will get caught up in a bad second wave (we're presently in the midst of the first wave, inadvisedly continued into the summer.) But we'll see. I'm open-minded, but a tad on the pessimist side.
