We’re doomed!

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Where theres a Bill theres a way

 

[Star56]

Does anyone really think there's gonna be a season

Yes. Of course there will be a season. 99.9% survival rate for players NFL age

Meaningless virus for young people.

 

[Drunken Cicerone]

Theres not going to be a season. Unless theres a remarkable turnaround in Covid. Baseball has been going on for less than a week and they're already canceling games.

Thats in a non contact sport. They don't get through a season

 

[MrTibbs]

loaded at RB?

since when

The LB comment might be a stretch because you can't really depend on rookies but running back? Cmon! Sony, Sweet Feet, Burkhead, Harris, J.J. Taylor is very intriguing....if the offensive line is steady that might be the strength of the offense. IF.....IF there is a season.

 

[Jangles]

The LB comment might be a stretch because you can't really depend on rookies but running back? Cmon! Sony, Sweet Feet, Burkhead, Harris, J.J. Taylor is very intriguing....if the offensive line is steady that might be the strength of the offense. IF.....IF there is a season.

well Sony is terrible

We have a lot of bodies on the roster. But loaded seems like a huge stretch

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Meaningless virus for young people.

Tell that to E-Rod who recovered from the virus but now has cardiomyopathy (inflammation of the heart). Lots of young people recover but still have ongoing lung issues (fibrosis and shortness of breath) - may not be a big deal for most, but a likely killer for a high-level athlete's career.

 

[Froob]

well Sony is terrible

We have a lot of bodies on the roster. But loaded seems like a huge stretch

Eh he’s not terrible, but he’s not anything special. It kills us that he’s totally inept in the passing game though. But he is pretty good when he has blocking.

Sadly he is closer to a guy you’d spend a fourth or fifth round pick on than a first.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I do not know how the nfl can guarantee the safety of it’s players with this virus running rampart.

maybe they need to quit chasing the dollars and think about what is best for the players.

 

[Joker]

I do not know how the nfl can guarantee the safety of it’s players with this virus running rampart.

maybe they need to quit chasing the dollars and think about what is best for the players.

heh...hah hah....LMAO....The Goon quit chasing the moolah? Is he dead? If not....LMAO...

 

[PatriotsReign]

Patriots fans seem to be having trouble adjusting to the new reality that we won't be in the hunt for an indeterminate amount of time. It's okay guys. It happens to every team. We rode high for a hell of a long time. This was due to happen at some point. We won't be a crap team, but I think we'll be missing the playoffs and we'll need to get use to that happening fairly regularly until we get a top end QB. Maybe Cam will be good enough to get us in. Maybe even get to the top 8, but that's the limit. And I consider it more likely we miss entirely than make it as one of the top 8 teams. We simply don't have the team.

Our defense was pretty damn good last year but it got to beat up on a lot of bad offenses and had the benefit of an offense and STs which didn't put it in bad spots. The amount of turnovers and generally good punt return/kick off returns help the D. It was a bit overrated going by the 14.1PPG number as the second half of the year showed. Not that it was bad or even average. But when all is said and done it wasn't the best. Back end top 5. And it will be worse this year.

On the offensive side there will be some big issues. Brady took arguably the worst cast in the league and led them to respectability as one of the better offenses overall. I don't think Brady gets enough credit for his play last year. It was one of his worst years overall but even an aging Brady is still better than all but 1-3 QBs in the league last year. I don't expect even prime Cam to work those same wonders with what we'll be giving him unless Harry turns into an absolute super star.

We’ll be fine as long as Belichick’s here.

 

[jmt57]

There is not another NFL team remotely close to the Patriots in terms of the number of players that have elected to opt out. Nine teams have zero opting out, and no other team has more than two.

Here's a complete list of NFL players opting out of the 2020 season | Sporting News


To me the defensive offseason losses in free agency (and trades) have been overlooked by many outside of this forum, with TB12 moving on to Tampa dominating the discussion by the media and casual fans. That has now been exacerbated by the Patriots that are opting out.

Defensive Snaps -- % -- Rank -- Player
833 --- 81% --- #3 --- Jamie Collins
832 --- 81% --- #4 --- Kyle Van Noy
736 --- 71% --- #5 --- Dont'a Hightower
669 --- 65% --- #7 --- Duron Harmon
653 --- 63% --- #8 --- Patrick Chung
508 --- 49% --- #11 -- Danny Shelton
272 --- 26% --- #18 -- Shilique Calhoun
210 --- 20% --- #20 -- Elandon Roberts


There have also been sizable losses on special teams, though that can more easily be replenished.

ST Snaps -- % -- Rank -- Player
323 ---- 71% ---- #2 ---- Brandon Bolden
319 ---- 70% ---- #3 ---- Nate Ebner
241 ---- 51% ---- #5 ---- Shilique Calhoun
201 ---- 44% ---- #9 ---- Jamie Collins
143 ---- 31% ---- #15 --- Elandon Roberts
104 ---- 23% ---- #18 --- Danny Shelton
Other departed players account for a combined 343 snaps.


Here are the numbers on offense. They look worse than they really are since some were already addressed (David Andrews' return), others were in need of an upgrade anyways (Dorsett, Watson, Ferentz), out of the team's control (Gordon) - and in the case of Cannon there are options such as Cajuste, Froholdt, or re-signing Newhouse.

Snaps ---- % ---- Rank ---- Player
1142 ---- 99% ---- #2 ----- TB12
1046 ---- 94% ---- #4 ---- Ted Karras
1014 ---- 88% ---- #5 ---- Marcus Cannon
567 ----- 49% ---- #8 ---- Phillip Dorsett
467 ----- 40% ---- #11 --- Ben Watson
325 ----- 28% ---- #16 --- Josh Gordon
205 ----- 18% ---- #20 --- James Ferentz
96 ------- 8% ----- #21 --- Brandon Bolden

2019 Snap Counts | Football Outsiders


A few years back I was all over Nostradamus for his knee jerk 'I can't stand it thread'. I am not going to say that the Patriots are doomed, but it appears to me that the 2020 defense is going to take a big step backwards towards the middle of the pack. That is in turn going to put more pressure on an offense that will have to limit its playbook for a new quarterback, and still has quality issues at wide receiver and tight end. The 2019 defense ranked first in points, yardage, turnover differential, third down conversions, third down conversion percentage and DVOA; second in turnovers; and third in total plays and yards per play. It is unreasonable to expect that type of production again.

To me the odds being given the Patriots in 2020 are based more on reputation than the reality of the composition of their roster. I believe this will be a rebuilding year, hampered in large part by $24 million in dead cap money. Once that is off the books ($13.5 for Brady, $4.5 for AB, $2 for Bennett, $1.4 for Ghost, $1.25 for Harmon) the Pats will be able to reload in 2021.

2020 NFL Odds


I look forward to watching the Patriots in 2020 (assuming there is an NFL season), but I will be realistic with my expectations.

 

[Patsgofor4]

There is not another NFL team remotely close to the Patriots in terms of the number of players that have elected to opt out. Nine teams have zero opting out, and no other team has more than two.

Here's a complete list of NFL players opting out of the 2020 season | Sporting News


To me the defensive offseason losses in free agency (and trades) have been overlooked by many outside of this forum, with TB12 moving on to Tampa dominating the discussion by the media and casual fans. That has now been exacerbated by the Patriots that are opting out.

Defensive Snaps -- % -- Rank -- Player
833 --- 81% --- #3 --- Jamie Collins
832 --- 81% --- #4 --- Kyle Van Noy
736 --- 71% --- #5 --- Dont'a Hightower
669 --- 65% --- #7 --- Duron Harmon
653 --- 63% --- #8 --- Patrick Chung
508 --- 49% --- #11 -- Danny Shelton
272 --- 26% --- #18 -- Shilique Calhoun
210 --- 20% --- #20 -- Elandon Roberts


There have also been sizable losses on special teams, though that can more easily be replenished.

ST Snaps -- % -- Rank -- Player
323 ---- 71% ---- #2 ---- Brandon Bolden
319 ---- 70% ---- #3 ---- Nate Ebner
241 ---- 51% ---- #5 ---- Shilique Calhoun
201 ---- 44% ---- #9 ---- Jamie Collins
143 ---- 31% ---- #15 --- Elandon Roberts
104 ---- 23% ---- #18 --- Danny Shelton
Other departed players account for a combined 343 snaps.


Here are the numbers on offense. They look worse than they really are since some were already addressed (David Andrews' return), others were in need of an upgrade anyways (Dorsett, Watson, Ferentz), out of the team's control (Gordon) - and in the case of Cannon there are options such as Cajuste, Froholdt, or re-signing Newhouse.

Snaps ---- % ---- Rank ---- Player
1142 ---- 99% ---- #2 ----- TB12
1046 ---- 94% ---- #4 ---- Ted Karras
1014 ---- 88% ---- #5 ---- Marcus Cannon
567 ----- 49% ---- #8 ---- Phillip Dorsett
467 ----- 40% ---- #11 --- Ben Watson
325 ----- 28% ---- #16 --- Josh Gordon
205 ----- 18% ---- #20 --- James Ferentz
96 ------- 8% ----- #21 --- Brandon Bolden

2019 Snap Counts | Football Outsiders


A few years back I was all over Nostradamus for his knee jerk 'I can't stand it thread'. I am not going to say that the Patriots are doomed, but it appears to me that the 2020 defense is going to take a big step backwards towards the middle of the pack. That is in turn going to put more pressure on an offense that will have to limit its playbook for a new quarterback, and still has quality issues at wide receiver and tight end. The 2019 defense ranked first in points, yardage, turnover differential, third down conversions, third down conversion percentage and DVOA; second in turnovers; and third in total plays and yards per play. It is unreasonable to expect that type of production again.

To me the odds being given the Patriots in 2020 are based more on reputation than the reality of the composition of their roster. I believe this will be a rebuilding year, hampered in large part by $24 million in dead cap money. Once that is off the books ($13.5 for Brady, $4.5 for AB, $2 for Bennett, $1.4 for Ghost, $1.25 for Harmon) the Pats will be able to reload in 2021.

2020 NFL Odds


I look forward to watching the Patriots in 2020 (assuming there is an NFL season), but I will be realistic with my expectations.

Of the defensive players, the only irreplaceable player is Hightower.

 

[Bill Lee]

Of the defensive players, the only irreplaceable player is Hightower.

Fair enough. If we go through the list and assume anyone playing 49% or more of the snaps is difficult to replace we've lost one impossible to replace player (TB12), one irreplaceable player (HT) and 10 difficult to replace players too.

 

[jmt57]

Fair enough. If we go through the list and assume anyone playing 49% or more of the snaps is difficult to replace we've lost one impossible to replace player (TB12), one irreplaceable player (HT) and 10 difficult to replace players too.

Agreed, it is not the loss of top tier players that is the 2020 obstacle.

To me the issue is not the departure of those two, but instead finding suitable replacements for the sheer quantity of players that were receiving significant playing time in 2019. That hurdle is compounded by near-zero time for substitutions to learn a new system with no OTAs, no joint practices and no preseason games.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I pretty much wrote this season off anyway even before COVID with the change at QB and several key personnel on defense leaving in FA - We will see a nice rebuild in 2021 with all the cap money and if things go well with what we do with that will determine of how soon we get back to the top of the mountain - if we do have a season I just hope we are competitive and at least have a decent record and maybe even sniff a playoff spot - regardless of all of this,we as a country have more to worry about than football at this time for certain.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

We’ll be fine as long as Belichick’s here.

He could always bring in the QB from Foxboro High like he threatened to do to TFB.. It might mess up the kid's NCAA eligibility but if there was ever a year that will show BB's coaching acumen, this is it....Replacing ( hate that word in this case) the GOAT at QB, and nearly half your defensive snaps......IF and that is a big word, they play the entire season, I think 8-8 is a success....Anything more is gravy...
There is the annual UDFA who makes the team and with no preseason games, it was going to be less likely this year. However with the opt outs, I think we'll see a few who shine in camp and make the team like Malcolm Butler and J C Jackson in years past.......Next man up ....

 

[Patsgofor4]

I do not know how the nfl can guarantee the safety of it’s players with this virus running rampart.

maybe they need to quit chasing the dollars and think about what is best for the players.

*rampant

You must have been feeling very patriotic at that moment.

 

[1960Pats]

There is not another NFL team remotely close to the Patriots in terms of the number of players that have elected to opt out. Nine teams have zero opting out, and no other team has more than two.

Here's a complete list of NFL players opting out of the 2020 season | Sporting News


To me the defensive offseason losses in free agency (and trades) have been overlooked by many outside of this forum, with TB12 moving on to Tampa dominating the discussion by the media and casual fans. That has now been exacerbated by the Patriots that are opting out.

Defensive Snaps -- % -- Rank -- Player
833 --- 81% --- #3 --- Jamie Collins
832 --- 81% --- #4 --- Kyle Van Noy
736 --- 71% --- #5 --- Dont'a Hightower
669 --- 65% --- #7 --- Duron Harmon
653 --- 63% --- #8 --- Patrick Chung
508 --- 49% --- #11 -- Danny Shelton
272 --- 26% --- #18 -- Shilique Calhoun
210 --- 20% --- #20 -- Elandon Roberts


There have also been sizable losses on special teams, though that can more easily be replenished.

ST Snaps -- % -- Rank -- Player
323 ---- 71% ---- #2 ---- Brandon Bolden
319 ---- 70% ---- #3 ---- Nate Ebner
241 ---- 51% ---- #5 ---- Shilique Calhoun
201 ---- 44% ---- #9 ---- Jamie Collins
143 ---- 31% ---- #15 --- Elandon Roberts
104 ---- 23% ---- #18 --- Danny Shelton
Other departed players account for a combined 343 snaps.


Here are the numbers on offense. They look worse than they really are since some were already addressed (David Andrews' return), others were in need of an upgrade anyways (Dorsett, Watson, Ferentz), out of the team's control (Gordon) - and in the case of Cannon there are options such as Cajuste, Froholdt, or re-signing Newhouse.

Snaps ---- % ---- Rank ---- Player
1142 ---- 99% ---- #2 ----- TB12
1046 ---- 94% ---- #4 ---- Ted Karras
1014 ---- 88% ---- #5 ---- Marcus Cannon
567 ----- 49% ---- #8 ---- Phillip Dorsett
467 ----- 40% ---- #11 --- Ben Watson
325 ----- 28% ---- #16 --- Josh Gordon
205 ----- 18% ---- #20 --- James Ferentz
96 ------- 8% ----- #21 --- Brandon Bolden

2019 Snap Counts | Football Outsiders


A few years back I was all over Nostradamus for his knee jerk 'I can't stand it thread'. I am not going to say that the Patriots are doomed, but it appears to me that the 2020 defense is going to take a big step backwards towards the middle of the pack. That is in turn going to put more pressure on an offense that will have to limit its playbook for a new quarterback, and still has quality issues at wide receiver and tight end. The 2019 defense ranked first in points, yardage, turnover differential, third down conversions, third down conversion percentage and DVOA; second in turnovers; and third in total plays and yards per play. It is unreasonable to expect that type of production again.

To me the odds being given the Patriots in 2020 are based more on reputation than the reality of the composition of their roster. I believe this will be a rebuilding year, hampered in large part by $24 million in dead cap money. Once that is off the books ($13.5 for Brady, $4.5 for AB, $2 for Bennett, $1.4 for Ghost, $1.25 for Harmon) the Pats will be able to reload in 2021.

2020 NFL Odds


I look forward to watching the Patriots in 2020 (assuming there is an NFL season), but I will be realistic with my expectations.

Great post.

I think the reason the Pats have more opting out is because Belichick asked the players to let him know early.

In a way, aren't odds always about reputation?

 

[ralmat55]

Of the defensive players, the only irreplaceable player is Hightower.

I noticed it yesterday visiting overthecap.com to check out the Pats cap situation, and this morning Greg Bedard mentioned it his Sunday notes column. As of Saturday night, Dont’a Hightower had still not filed his opt out paperwork. All the others have but Hightower (and Lee). It might mean nothing, or it might not, but it is curious at least.

So, it’s possible he’s rethinking his decision. Maybe, he’s feeling some peer pressure, and $9.5 million is a lot of money to walk away from. 2020 was to be the last year of his contract, and with a good year, he might have a crack at another good payday in free agency next offseason that probably will not be there when he’s 33 after playing out his contract in 2021.

It sounds like the opt out deadline is going to be Wednesday, so we should know in a couple of days.

 

[micronin127]

Doomed. Doomed I say. #karmathread