Setting Stidham up for Success

[I.M. Fletcher]

There has been much said and lamented about where the Pats are Post-Brady and how bad the team will be this coming season, and maybe even for years to come. Some talking about Tanking for Trevor, or become try-hards that fail. I dont even necessarily mean on this board. Its almost consensus in the media that the Pats have one of the weakest rosters in the league.

I dont see it. At all.

I think four fundamental reasons why I believe BB has set young Stidham up for success. I will focus on one of those, as I think its the only one worth teasing out a bit.

1. Coaching Continuity is king.
2. Roster continuity is queen
3. returning every single starter on offense, with expected improvements from health and age from most
4. We still have one of the best defenses in the entire NFL

So, we can go back and forth on the first 3, but I think they are fairly standard assessments of our roster and other successful teams. The 4th point is seemingly being brushed aside as either something that people expect to fall apart, or that it wont be enough to prop young Stidham up.

So, I did some digging. Lets say, for argument sake, that the Pats defense can, in fact, continue playing at an upper echelon level. Lets say, for argument, they are a top 5 defense in the entire NFL. How many are squaking at that thought? I understand we lost some great pieces in Van Noy, Collins and Harmon, but with the pieces that were already on the roster, I dont think its a reach to believe that they can maintain a very strong, and possibly elite unit. Maybe not tops in the league as we were last year, but still among the best.

Why does that matter? Well, a great deal apparently.

This is a list of every QB in his 1st or 2nd season over the past 12 years that were supported by a defense that was ranked in the top 5, according to Football Outsiders.

I will list the teams rank, the qb and their invidiual record as starter of the team, as well as their completion percentage


2019:

Pittsburgh Steelers 3rd
Mason Rudolph 5-3 62%
Devlin Hodges 3-3 62%

Baltimore 4th
Lamar Jackson 13-2 66%

2018

Chicago 1st
Trubisky 11-3 59%

Buffalo 2nd
Josh Allen 5-6 52%

Baltimore 3rd
Lamar Jackson 6-1 58%

2017

Philadelphia 5th
Carson Wentz 11-2 60%

2016

Denver Broncos 1st
Trevor Siemien 8-6 59%
Paxton Lynch 1-1 59%

Philadelphia 5th
Carson Wentz 7-9 62%

2013

Seattle 1st
Russell Wilson 13-3 63%

2012

Seattle 2nd
Russell Wilson 11-5 64%

San Fran 3rd
Colin Kaepnernick 5-2 62%

2011

Jacksonville 5th
Blaine Gabbert 4-10 50%

2010

New York Jets 5th
Mark Sanchez 11-5 54%

2009

New York Jets 1st
Mark Sanchez 8-7 53%

So, you get quite a bit of information here. 1. Great defenses could help even the most helpless qbs win some games. Blaine Gabbert completed 50% of his passes and still won 4 games. Mitch Trubisky went 11-3! Trevor Siemien went 8-6 and was never heard from again.

of those 14 teams, only 3 had a losing record, and 8 made the playoffs. Of those 11 separate players, only 3 ended up as franchise QBs. So if your concern is that Stidham isnt the guy, or cant possibly have it because hes not Tom Brady, you are most likely right. But, surrounding him with a defense that will give him the best possible chance to win games will allow us to see what his ceiling truly is.

I am a Stidham believer longterm for a lot of reasons, but having Gilmore, Hightower, Jackson, Wino, Guy and Chung are why I believe Stidham wont be leading us in to the tank this year.

The only way I see the floor fall out on this team is if we run in to some terrible health luck. Its possible obviously, especially with an older group. But with the depth we have across the board, Id be surprised if it was enough to submarine the whole season.

So, if you ever find yourself thinking Stidham cant possibly get us to the playoffs and we are destined for failure, remind yourself that Rex Ryan coached a worse defensive team with Mark Sanchez at QB to the AFC championship game. Maybe that will help you cheer up.

 

[Hyped]

Bring out the Kool Aid!!!

 

[FCB02062]

The defense ****ing sucked, or at least couldn't stop anyone good when it really mattered over the last 9 games (other than stopping immortal Josh Allen) including the playoff joke/choke vs Tennessee.,..they lost some important vet playmakers from that actual mediocre defense from the last 9 games.... This defense will give up 3 touchdowns a game on average and teams like KC and Baltimore will hang 35+.... Notice I'm saying 3 TOUCHDOWNS not 21 points bc their ppg will be north of that

 

[Jercules]

There has been much said and lamented about where the Pats are Post-Brady and how bad the team will be this coming season, and maybe even for years to come. Some talking about Tanking for Trevor, or become try-hards that fail. I dont even necessarily mean on this board. Its almost consensus in the media that the Pats have one of the weakest rosters in the league.

I dont see it. At all.

I think four fundamental reasons why I believe BB has set young Stidham up for success. I will focus on one of those, as I think its the only one worth teasing out a bit.

1. Coaching Continuity is king.
2. Roster continuity is queen
3. returning every single starter on offense, with expected improvements from health and age from most
4. We still have one of the best defenses in the entire NFL

So, we can go back and forth on the first 3, but I think they are fairly standard assessments of our roster and other successful teams. The 4th point is seemingly being brushed aside as either something that people expect to fall apart, or that it wont be enough to prop young Stidham up.

So, I did some digging. Lets say, for argument sake, that the Pats defense can, in fact, continue playing at an upper echelon level. Lets say, for argument, they are a top 5 defense in the entire NFL. How many are squaking at that thought? I understand we lost some great pieces in Van Noy, Collins and Harmon, but with the pieces that were already on the roster, I dont think its a reach to believe that they can maintain a very strong, and possibly elite unit. Maybe not tops in the league as we were last year, but still among the best.

Why does that matter? Well, a great deal apparently.

This is a list of every QB in his 1st or 2nd season over the past 12 years that were supported by a defense that was ranked in the top 5, according to Football Outsiders.

I will list the teams rank, the qb and their invidiual record as starter of the team, as well as their completion percentage


2019:

Pittsburgh Steelers 3rd
Mason Rudolph 5-3 62%
Devlin Hodges 3-3 62%

Baltimore 4th
Lamar Jackson 13-2 66%

2018

Chicago 1st
Trubisky 11-3 59%

Buffalo 2nd
Josh Allen 5-6 52%

Baltimore 3rd
Lamar Jackson 6-1 58%

2017

Philadelphia 5th
Carson Wentz 11-2 60%

2016

Denver Broncos 1st
Trevor Siemien 8-6 59%
Paxton Lynch 1-1 59%

Philadelphia 5th
Carson Wentz 7-9 62%

2013

Seattle 1st
Russell Wilson 13-3 63%

2012

Seattle 2nd
Russell Wilson 11-5 64%

San Fran 3rd
Colin Kaepnernick 5-2 62%

2011

Jacksonville 5th
Blaine Gabbert 4-10 50%

2010

New York Jets 5th
Mark Sanchez 11-5 54%

2009

New York Jets 1st
Mark Sanchez 8-7 53%

So, you get quite a bit of information here. 1. Great defenses could help even the most helpless qbs win some games. Blaine Gabbert completed 50% of his passes and still won 4 games. Mitch Trubisky went 11-3! Trevor Siemien went 8-6 and was never heard from again.

of those 14 teams, only 3 had a losing record, and 8 made the playoffs. Of those 11 separate players, only 3 ended up as franchise QBs. So if your concern is that Stidham isnt the guy, or cant possibly have it because hes not Tom Brady, you are most likely right. But, surrounding him with a defense that will give him the best possible chance to win games will allow us to see what his ceiling truly is.

I am a Stidham believer longterm for a lot of reasons, but having Gilmore, Hightower, Jackson, Wino, Guy and Chung are why I believe Stidham wont be leading us in to the tank this year.

The only way I see the floor fall out on this team is if we run in to some terrible health luck. Its possible obviously, especially with an older group. But with the depth we have across the board, Id be surprised if it was enough to submarine the whole season.

So, if you ever find yourself thinking Stidham cant possibly get us to the playoffs and we are destined for failure, remind yourself that Rex Ryan coached a worse defensive team with Mark Sanchez at QB to the AFC championship game. Maybe that will help you cheer up.

Bravo. I get it that we lost Brady, but other than him, Van Noy, and apparently Develin, we haven't lost anyone vital. The year prior, we lost Trey Flowers and became BETTER on defense in 2019.

We have the greatest coach in NFL history, a guy who routinely coaches up guys he gets off the scrap heap. We've been to four of the last six Super Bowls, winning three.

Everyone is bickering over whether Stidham is any good... can we entertain the possibility that he's a stud? That the Pats are excited to have him take over, which is why they let Brady walk and neither signed nor drafted anyone significant at the position? (That's a much more reasonable narrative than this nonsense about tanking, or notions that Belichick is suddenly an idiot or arrogant beyond belief, but you don't hear it anywhere, do you? Even on this message board).

Thank you for the positivity, not because it is nice, but because it is correct.

 

[n6249c]

View attachment 27225

Bring out the Kool Aid!!!

Not so fast!

You making the Jim Jones recipe?

Or the Ken Kesey one?

There’s a big difference!

 

[long distance]

BB has set young Stidham up for success

Of course he did.

Not only with defence though. Instead of investing in fancy receiving toys and putting pressure on Stidham he's (continuing) building a tough versatile O group that can help him in every way. If Andrews' comeback is close to before and if they keep Thuney this will be a competitive group in their own right - as long as they stay healthy. Develin is a big loss and lack of depth at OL could be a weak spot but if this offence can stay healthy my guess is it will loook/feel better than last yr. Probably less consistent . but more alive. Big resets often times have positive effect.

Thank you for a good post. Nice to read something like this here for a change.

And your point is spot on. BB knows his job is to put the team in controlled/winnable situation in 4th quarter every time. After that is on the players and coordinators to take it..

 

[farn]

Hoping Stidham is the answer. I remember, in 1999 I thought Griese would just keep the good times rolling, since Elway has given way to Terrell Davis at the end of his career.

Yes, Davis (and Sharpe) getting hurt was a killer & their schedule was tough, but losing the vet QB put them in a tailspin despite having the talent to win back to back 97-98. That group never got back.

Hoping NE’s trajectory is different, but open to the possibility 2020 could be a dumpster fire. Regardless, I think the choice to move on was the correct one to make - Brady/no Brady, NE wasn’t winning the SB in 2020.

 

[Triumph]

Too many unknowns to state that Stidham is set up for success.

 

[stephens44]

Good post.... Whatever BB saw over the course of the season that gave him enough confidence to allow Brady to walk is good enough for me at this point. Stidham has a live arm, can run and will follow the design of the play called. Thats enough for a BB team to succeed most of the time. BB must believe that Stidham has the intangibles and the ability to succeed, otherwise he clearly would not be taking this path. He's going to play the disrespect card, which has worked wonders in the past (a lot!). Is there another Defense in the AFC thats built better than the Pats for handling Mahomes and Jackson? The key to this season is beating Buffalo, do that and its another Div title and a home playoff game. I like how this team stacks up against the Div, call me optimistic for this year.

 

[sb1]

“We lost Brady”

Losing the 2019 version of Brady isn’t a big loss.

 

[sb1]

Hoping Stidham is the answer. I remember, in 1999 I thought Griese would just keep the good times rolling, since Elway has given way to Terrell Davis at the end of his career.

Yes, Davis (and Sharpe) getting hurt was a killer & their schedule was tough, but losing the vet QB put them in a tailspin despite having the talent to win back to back 97-98. That group never got back.

Hoping NE’s trajectory is different, but open to the possibility 2020 could be a dumpster fire. Regardless, I think the choice to move on was the correct one to make - Brady/no Brady, NE wasn’t winning the SB in 2020.

That’s an interesting analogy.

With Davis the injury wasn’t a one-off he was never the same after that. Would be like Brady never fully recovering from the ACL tear.

 

[archstanton543]

I don't know how you can say that the D will be good like last year. I remember the D looking pretty terrible down the stretch and in the playoffs. They're thin at LB and DT which means they'll get run on again like they did last year. With a killer secondary, you're practically begging teams to run it and run it they will just like last year.

Sure, they're setting the kid up the best they can but with their terrible cap position and suspect drafting the last few years, don't expect a ton of success this year or next.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

“We lost Brady”

Losing the 2019 version of Brady isn’t a big loss.

heres a fun game.

how many more games do we lose last year if we had Blake Bortles as our QB instead of Brady?

I came up with one more loss, later in the season to the Bills.

If you believe the defense can be upper echelon again like it was last year, Stidham be a D+ would be enough to make this team a playoff contender.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

heres a fun game.

how many more games do we lose last year if we had Blake Bortles as our QB instead of Brady?

I came up with one more loss, later in the season to the Bills.

If you believe the defense can be upper echelon again like it was last year, Stidham be a D+ would be enough to make this team a playoff contender.

I said last year after week 3 Brady was below average in some games trash.
His heart and soul wasn't in it AB took it with him out of foxboro.
That Titans playoff game I never saw Brady look so disinterested before a game.
Part of me Believes he threw that pick 6 on purpose.
As a FU walking out the door.
I could be totally wrong but that wasn't Tom Effing Brady I dont care if he's throwing to arena league players that wasn't Tom.
We saw Tompa last season.
Brady left in 2018.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Rex Ryan coached a worse defensive team with Mark Sanchez at QB to the AFC championship game. Maybe that will help you cheer up.

Edit: to be clear I agree with the OPs premise of setting stidham up with success; I just believe the jets defense were superior to ours last year. Our defense was good but not great over the 2nd half of the season against the better teams.

 

[Ring 6]

heres a fun game.

how many more games do we lose last year if we had Blake Bortles as our QB instead of Brady?

I came up with one more loss, later in the season to the Bills.

If you believe the defense can be upper echelon again like it was last year, Stidham be a D+ would be enough to make this team a playoff contender.

In those 11 wins the defense never allowed more than 13 and allowed a total of 65 points in 11 games. (The offense and st allowed 21). The defense allowed a combined 5 tds and 6 fgs in those 11 games.
Even in the second buffalo win they only allowed 17.

 

[luuked]

I remember the D looking pretty terrible down the stretch and in the playoffs.

Absurd over the top language like that is what makes this place here so challenging to read at times.

 

[Jangles]

Absurd over the top language like that is what makes this place here so challenging to read at times.

you must have missed some of their games then

 

[sb1]

heres a fun game.

how many more games do we lose last year if we had Blake Bortles as our QB instead of Brady?

I came up with one more loss, later in the season to the Bills.

If you believe the defense can be upper echelon again like it was last year, Stidham be a D+ would be enough to make this team a playoff contender.

The defense should be upper echelon again.

And I couldn’t ageee more. Brady had a 78 passer rating after October last year, 88 overall. I’m sure Bortles or any other serviceable QB could put up numbers like that.

 

[TB_Helmet]

I said last year after week 3 Brady was below average in some games trash.
His heart and soul wasn't in it AB took it with him out of foxboro.
That Titans playoff game I never saw Brady look so disinterested before a game.
Part of me Believes he threw that pick 6 on purpose.
As a FU walking out the door.
I could be totally wrong but that wasn't Tom Effing Brady I dont care if he's throwing to arena league players that wasn't Tom.
We saw Tompa last season.
Brady left in 2018.

You obviously didn’t watch the KC game. Brady running for that first down and screaming afterwards was the highlight of the season.