Coronavirus RESPECTFUL Discussion Only! (Mod edit: Closed)

[Kdo5]

And that's just the people who are dying from the virus, not the people dying because they needed emergency care but couldn't get any because hospitals are overrun. That won't be in the millions but it won't be zero either. Just more tragedy around this.

I made a silly calculation there and posted what would have been 10% of people dying. Still if you have like half a million people dead from one state that is very very bad.

 

[Adam Seward]

Not fast enough
They should be ordering the manufacture of ventilators, yet they haven't. Every day counts.

Let's not forget the Senate going on recess for the weekend and then playing politics

Trained personnel for the ventilator is the largest hurdle. They arent the most straight forward to operate and can get bad quick if mistakes are made. Staff fatigue will be unthinkable.

 

[MoreBellhorn]

What you say in this post is somewhat reasonable, that if everyone practices social distancing religiously, there are certain activities that should be ok.

What you were saying in previous posts was not, openly skeptical of the Calif governor's projections. He and his public health scientists are analyzing data that's showing exponential growth. If he says they're on a path for 20 million+ cases, then assume it to be fairly accurate. Accusing him of making a WAG is the height of irresponsibility.

I’m still very skeptical of the governor of California, sure. I’ll follow the CDC and WHO numbers. Nothing else. I’ll listen to Fauci. He’s very reasonable.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

South Korea and the U.S. detected their first active cases on the same day. Here is an article on our respective responses.

US and South Korea detected their first coronavirus case on the same day -

As of 3/18/20, the ROK has 84 deaths. Today, 3/19, the U.S. has 189 deaths. The ROK identified where the cases were, which made them able to counter the threat. In the U.S., we missed the window of relevance of containment. All we have left is mitigation by flattening the curve - that is, by making it take longer to all get infected, so that facilities are not overwhelmed. "All" is a bit much, but for infection to be widespread.

Tommy, if you're thinking "It's still just a few thousand cases," you need to think like a hockey player.... it's not where the puck is, it's where it's going to be. Here's an article on exponential spread:

Why 'Exponential Growth' Is So Scary For The COVID-19 Coronavirus

Even today, POTUS was asked why the federal gov't can't get the supposed millions of masks we have where they are needed. He says "They're not a shipping clerk." This paints a picture of federal stockpiles while governors and mayors are freaking tf out because they're having to re-use masks some places. King County, WA., is building a field hospital in a soccer field. Do you think it's really happening yet? Were you calling the virus a "hoax" a month or two ago? Or maybe a week ago?

Well into when "experts" were telling him that yes, this is really happening, Trump was on TV calling it a hoax, then saying it was a hoax that his enemies wanted him to respond, then saying that one day soon it would all go away and it will be like a miracle, and so on. There are still a lot of people who are trying to score points with hard core denialists by claiming that it's not a big deal.

Here some of the facts of the response. The whole tick-tock is here:
Timeline: Trump administration’s response to coronavirus

Dec. 31, 2019, AP report of China's virus outbreak
(1 week passes)
Jan. 6, 2020 CDC's first move, way below presidential level, CDC warns travelers to China to take precautions
Jan. 14, WHO says no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission. I.e., inaction is still excusable.
Jan. 21, first confirmed U.S. case in Seattle
Jan. 22, Trump's first remarks... Coronavirus "is going to be handled very well." Also, China "is in very good shape."
Jan. 29, White House names task force
Jan. 30:

Since on 1/30/20 we have 5 confirmed cases, presumably walking around shedding virus, please check your assumptions about whether we "kept COVID-19 out," once the "border"-intensive measures below were followed.

Jan. 31 - Maybe this is what he means by "I closed the borders"?
The Trump administration suspends entry into the United States by foreign nationals who traveled to China within the last 14 days (excluding Hong Kong and Macau). This does not apply to lawful U.S. residents and family members/ spouses of U.S. residents or citizens.

But wait. What if U.S. nationals also got sick?

Feb.2 -
President Trump interview on Fox News with Sean Hannity
“Well, we pretty much shut it down coming in from China. … We've offered China help, but we can't have thousands of people coming in who may have this problem, the coronavirus.”

Feb. 18
The CDC issues an order requiring airlines to provide information about any passenger coming from China within 14 days of their entry into the U.S.

So you bop around for 2 weeks in the U.S., nobody knows anything about your whereabout, and 2 weeks after you land, Delta or whoever has to say you landed at XYZ airport. Also: You can be asymptomatic for up to 3 weeks. I certainly hope that every such passenger was located, their contacts were isolated, the whole kit and caboodle were quarantined, and they were in quarantine 3 weeks! Otherwise your "we closed the borders!" spiel sort of falls apart.

Feb. 24

Wow. Was it really just 3 weeks ago that he was proclaiming the "stock market starting to look very good"?

Feb. 25
Lots of developments. Again, the coronavirus is "well under control" and there are "very few people" with it. Romney expresses disappointment that we have not stockpiled medical equipment/supplies. Trump brags about "closing the borders" to certain parts of the world for the first time, along with chest-thumping about how well the U.S. is doing... etc.

Feb. 29 he's bragging about how few cases we have, meanwhile - and this is key to the epic fail of footdragging - we're not testing.

There's a clear straight line between refusing to test and bragging that we have few confirmed cases. The theory behind it seems likely to be that markets would be rattled if they knew how many cases we had. The error is that the markets are responding to the real life math of how people will have to behave -- they will have to not go places where they will consume goods and use services. The classic example is the restaurants, but anything brick and mortar. You can't fix a virus with a rate-cut gimmick and you can't keep people afloat by cutting the taxes of the rich. Now we're suddenly up against the very boogeyman that he thought he could beat with a show of market support.

The problem is that a virus doesn't get beat by shows and slogans about foreigners. We have the virus in this country. We will have it now until it's "run its course," and much of the goal now is to make it take longer to run its course. But I digress.

March 5 - Trump brags on twitter, "With approximately 100,000 CoronaVirus cases worldwide, and 3,280 deaths, the United States, because of quick action on closing our borders, has, as of now, only 129 cases (40 Americans brought in) and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!"

There are now "only" 10,000+ (3/19). Two weeks, nice round number, 129 cases to 10,000. Of course, part of that is we've started actually trying to test and find it.

If necessary, please go back and read the link about exponential spread.

March 9, Trump is saying it's okay, because people die from the flu too...


Fauci keeps saying that it's nice to test now, and it's still important , but it's not to contain the virus anymore. We missed our chance to do that.

The pep rally shlitz (and the media bashing and dem bashing etc.) has to go. If you don't think there's a pandemic, really, just go somewhere else and mourn the loss of Brady to TB. I mean, that would be the main story then, innit?

If you think there is a virus, but Trump stopped it, why is the case count skyrocketing?

Ask yourself why he's trying to rebrand the virus, talk down the power of the virus, and otherwise try to talk the virus to death.

We're about to see some heavy duty **** in this country. It's absurd that people are still running around to save talking points, even at the expense of human lives.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I’m still very skeptical of the governor of California, sure. I’ll follow the CDC and WHO numbers. Nothing else. I’ll listen to Fauci. He’s very reasonable.

Well you shouldn't be, at least on a public forum. Assume the projections to be true, and act and talk accordingly.

 

[MoreBellhorn]

South Korea and the U.S. detected their first active cases on the same day. Here is an article on our respective responses.

US and South Korea detected their first coronavirus case on the same day -

As of 3/18/20, the ROK has 84 deaths. Today, 3/19, the U.S. has 189 deaths. The ROK identified where the cases were, which made them able to counter the threat. In the U.S., we missed the window of relevance of containment. All we have left is mitigation by flattening the curve - that is, by making it take longer to all get infected, so that facilities are not overwhelmed. "All" is a bit much, but for infection to be widespread.

Tommy, if you're thinking "It's still just a few thousand cases," you need to think like a hockey player.... it's not where the puck is, it's where it's going to be. Here's an article on exponential spread:

Why 'Exponential Growth' Is So Scary For The COVID-19 Coronavirus

Even today, POTUS was asked why the federal gov't can't get the supposed millions of masks we have where they are needed. He says "They're not a shipping clerk." This paints a picture of federal stockpiles while governors and mayors are freaking tf out because they're having to re-use masks some places. King County, WA., is building a field hospital in a soccer field. Do you think it's really happening yet? Were you calling the virus a "hoax" a month or two ago? Or maybe a week ago?

Well into when "experts" were telling him that yes, this is really happening, Trump was on TV calling it a hoax, then saying it was a hoax that his enemies wanted him to respond, then saying that one day soon it would all go away and it will be like a miracle, and so on. There are still a lot of people who are trying to score points with hard core denialists by claiming that it's not a big deal.

Here some of the facts of the response. The whole tick-tock is here:
Timeline: Trump administration’s response to coronavirus

Dec. 31, 2019, AP report of China's virus outbreak
(1 week passes)
Jan. 6, 2020 CDC's first move, way below presidential level, CDC warns travelers to China to take precautions
Jan. 14, WHO says no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission. I.e., inaction is still excusable.
Jan. 21, first confirmed U.S. case in Seattle
Jan. 22, Trump's first remarks... Coronavirus "is going to be handled very well." Also, China "is in very good shape."
Jan. 29, White House names task force
Jan. 30:

Since on 1/30/20 we have 5 confirmed cases, presumably walking around shedding virus, please check your assumptions about whether we "kept COVID-19 out," once the "border"-intensive measures below were followed.

Jan. 31 - Maybe this is what he means by "I closed the borders"?
The Trump administration suspends entry into the United States by foreign nationals who traveled to China within the last 14 days (excluding Hong Kong and Macau). This does not apply to lawful U.S. residents and family members/ spouses of U.S. residents or citizens.

But wait. What if U.S. nationals also got sick?

Feb.2 -
President Trump interview on Fox News with Sean Hannity
“Well, we pretty much shut it down coming in from China. … We've offered China help, but we can't have thousands of people coming in who may have this problem, the coronavirus.”

Feb. 18
The CDC issues an order requiring airlines to provide information about any passenger coming from China within 14 days of their entry into the U.S.

So you bop around for 2 weeks in the U.S., nobody knows anything about your whereabout, and 2 weeks after you land, Delta or whoever has to say you landed at XYZ airport. Also: You can be asymptomatic for up to 3 weeks. I certainly hope that every such passenger was located, their contacts were isolated, the whole kit and caboodle were quarantined, and they were in quarantine 3 weeks! Otherwise your "we closed the borders!" spiel sort of falls apart.

Feb. 24

Wow. Was it really just 3 weeks ago that he was proclaiming the "stock market is beginning to look very good"?

Feb. 25
Lots of developments. Again, the coronavirus is "well under control" and there are "very few people" with it. Romney expresses disappointment that we have not stockpiled medical equipment/supplies. Trump brags about "closing the borders" to certain parts of the world for the first time, along with chest-thumping about how well the U.S. is doing... etc.

Feb. 29 he's bragging about how few cases we have, meanwhile - and this is key to the epic fail of footdragging - we're not testing.

There's a clear straight line between refusing to test and bragging that we have few confirmed cases. The theory behind it seems likely to be that markets would be rattled if they knew how many cases we had. The error is that the markets are responding to the real life math of how people will have to behave -- they will have to not go places where they will consume goods and use services. The classic example is the restaurants, but anything brick and mortar. You can't fix a virus with a rate-cut gimmick and you can't keep people afloat by cutting the taxes of the rich. Now we're suddenly up against the very boogeyman that he thought he could beat with a show of market support.

The problem is that a virus doesn't get beat by shows and slogans about foreigners. We have the virus in this country. We will have it now until it's "run its course," and much of the goal now is to make it take longer to run its course. But I digress.

March 5 - Trump brags on twitter, "With approximately 100,000 CoronaVirus cases worldwide, and 3,280 deaths, the United States, because of quick action on closing our borders, has, as of now, only 129 cases (40 Americans brought in) and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!"

There are now "only" 10,000+ (3/19). Two weeks, nice round number, 129 cases to 10,000. Of course, part of that is we've started actually trying to test and find it.

If necessary, please go back and read the link about exponential spread.

March 9, Trump is saying it's okay, because people die from the flu too...


Fauci keeps saying that it's nice to test now, and it's still important , but it's not to contain the virus anymore. We missed our chance to do that.

The pep rally shlitz (and the media bashing and dem bashing etc.) has to go. If you don't think there's a pandemic, really, just go somewhere else and mourn the loss of Brady to TB. I mean, that would be the main story then, innit?

If you think there is a virus, but Trump stopped it, why is the case count skyrocketing?

Ask yourself why he's trying to rebrand the virus, talk down the power of the virus, and otherwise try to talk the virus to death.

We're about to see some heavy duty **** in this country. It's absurd that people are still running around to save talking points, even at the expense of human lives.

You know what’s worse than that? Politicizing this just like you did throughout your entire post. The right doing this is dogshit and what you’re doing is dogshit. Let’s be real.

 

[MoreBellhorn]

Well you shouldn't be, at least on a public forum. Assume the projections to be true, and act and talk accordingly.

How am I supposed to act? I said I’ve changed my ways dramatically.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

CAT was let out of the bag in early December. Unfortunately, the WHO did not indicate it was a public health emergency until January 30. If the Chinese spoke up in early on instead of trying keep it contained when their concern was international reputation, this wouldn't be happening now. If they had said anything about the virus at the time we could have taken precautions. No one knew anything about it since it was new - what its properties were, how it goes from person to person, how long does it stay airborne or stick on surfaces, how dangerous it was, etc. You can't just shut the whole country down without knowing more about the virus. The Chinese had studied this thing for weeks and could have told us everything.

China's 3-week delay in coronavirus response accelerated spread: study

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I can’t agree with the nationwide shutdown for weeks because it has way more negative repercussions than you realize. It should be state by state right now. Like I said, this is unprecedented. It should depend on each state. West Virginia has two documented cases.

Fortunately there is very relevant data coming out of Italy, which is about two weeks ahead. The government should lock down every state ASAP. Thousands of people will die each hour it isn’t locked down. This is not panic...it is based on data. The exponential spreading is happening right now...people just haven’t felt the effects yet.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

California just went on lockdown. Full statewide.

Same thing issued to some counties earlier this week, but now for the whole state. It's been real quiet on the roads this week. Even Costco and Safeway have been quieter in the afternoons.

Regards,
Chris

 

[Jlaff]

Trained personnel for the ventilator is the largest hurdle. They arent the most straight forward to operate and can get bad quick if mistakes are made. Staff fatigue will be unthinkable.

They should train bankers and lawyers on those things. Those people don't sleep.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

How am I supposed to act? I said I’ve changed my ways dramatically.

By not casting doubt on these highly educated projections. It's basically what Trump did, which lead to polls from 2 days ago that only 40% of Republicans thought this was a huge deal.

 

[MoreBellhorn]

Fortunately there is very relevant data coming out of Italy, which is about two weeks ahead. The government should lock down every state ASAP. Thousands of people will die each hour it isn’t locked down. This is not panic...it is based on data. The exponential spreading is happening right now...people just haven’t felt the effects yet.

Dude, please. This isn’t the Black Plague. ****ing relax. Fauci has said the social distancing and being overly cleanliness works. We’ll see the peak with more testing and everyone taking the advice from WHO. It’s going to skyrocket. We know. You just seem very ill informed about everything. No offense.

 

[MoreBellhorn]

By not casting doubt on these highly educated projections. It's basically what Trump did, which lead to polls from 2 days ago that only 40% of Republicans thought this was a huge deal.

How many times do I have to say this is serious? Jesus. You guys are all working from home not realizing how it is in the workplace right now. You don’t even understand. Everyone is staying away while cleaning crews are doing hourly rounds.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Dude, please. This isn’t the Black Plague. ****ing relax. Fauci has said the social distancing and being overly cleanliness works. We’ll see the peak with more testing and everyone taking the advice from WHO. It’s hoping skyrocket. We know. You just seem very ill informed about everything. No offense.

Every state will be locked down within a week. I am sure of this because I see the trend, the numbers that are coming, and what to expect.

We’ll see who is ill informed when that happens.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

You know what’s worse than that? Politicizing this just like you did throughout your entire post. The right doing this is dogshit and what you’re doing is dogshit. Let’s be real.

Thank you for your considered perspective. I have been missing it since I began this thread on February 28, concerned about what we were learning about the virus, and - initially - committed not to go the way of some of our friends here who have made it their business to belittle the subject matter, the virus itself, and anybody concerned with fact-based response.

It is refreshing to have the "real" point of view that you've offered, that it is "worse" for a private citizen to point out poor response to a public health crisis, than for a president to actually respond poorly to a public health crisis, therefore -- I take it for the first time -- politicizing the outbreak.

Regrettably, I cannot agree with your assessment of my interaction here. Go away now.

 

[Tony2046]

Every state will be locked down within a week. I am sure of this because I see the trend, the numbers that are coming, and what to expect.

We’ll see who is ill informed when that happens.

They have to. There's no choice at this point.

 

[MoreBellhorn]

Every state will be locked down within a week. I am sure of this because I see the trend, the numbers that are coming, and what to expect.

We’ll see who is ill informed when that happens.

Okay, bud. We all know the numbers will explode with more tests coming. That’s common sense. We’re in the middle of flattening the curve which you won’t see the results of because of the lack of tests going out. It’ll be a couple of months to see anything. Does not mean the nation will be shutting down. You’re completely out of touch.

 

[MoreBellhorn]

They have to. There's no choice at this point.

Yes, there is a choice.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

@MoreBellhorn

Find an example of one world community that has been able to take some measures to slow down the spread of the virus but hasn’t ultimately needed to go to a full lockdown.

You won’t.

The only problem here is that the government is understanding this in incremental steps rather than just getting right to the end game of lockdown, which is inevitable. The consequences for waiting to do this are severe.