I look at this game and I can't get the stink of the Miami game out of my head AND the Patriots inept performance AT Tennessee last season.
Going into Tennessee Brady had been playing great - last 5 games headed to Tennessee Brady was 69% completions, 315 ypg, 8 td, 3 int and 100 qb rating. And the offense didn't have much trouble moving the ball. Then they hit Vrabel and Dean Pees and Brady had his worst game of the season to that point. Yes, Gronkowski didn't play, but he also didn't play several games prior and the offense still moved the ball and scored points. Tennessee's defense was a step ahead of the Pats offense that day (and Mariota shredded an eventual Super Bowl winning defense).
And then of course we have the Miami game last week. If Brady doesn't throw the pick to Rowe, most likely the Patriots win the game and are resting up this weekend. Why did he throw the pick? Because Eric Rowe - of all players - was familiar with Brady and new he likes to check down to Edelman if a deeper route is covered. Guys like Logan Ryan, say what you will about him, are very familiar with Brady and his tendencies. Mike Vrabel is familiar with Belichick's style, where he likes to attack, etc, and this was proven out last year.
Without defensive or special teams points and NO TURNOVERS ON OFFENSE, I just don't see how the Pats score more than two tds. If you look at their last games vs competent opponents (KC, Buffalo, Houston, Dallas, Philadelphia, Baltimore) the Patriots have scored 2, 2, 3, 1, 1, and 2 touchdowns on offense. Tennessee is 100% a "competent" opponent. The Patriots average LESS than TWO touchdowns per game vs teams that don't shoot themselves in the foot and gift Brady the ball on their own 35 yard line.
Every single statistic, metric, historical performance from Brady and this offense points to 2 touchdowns tops tomorrow night (hope they score five, but def not counting on it). The Boogeymen have shown us with their pension for giving up big plays vs Buffalo, Houston, Kansas City, Baltimore and Miami that they cannot go an entire game without giving up chunk plays that result in touchdowns.
Tennessee has the league's best running back and the league's hottest quarterback. They have 2 competent tight ends who can catch and run after the catch. They have two solid wide receivers. Their weak spot is pass protection and third down conversions. So sure, the Boogeymen will pressure Tannehill all night and sack him many times because they're an "elite" defense, right? NOT SO FAST...
That "elite" Boogeymen defense, commonly mistaken for the 70s Steel Curtain, had an impressive FORTY SEVEN sacks in 2019 - great, right? Think again - THIRTY ONE of those sacks came in weeks 1-8 vs Dedham Country Day, Solomon Schecter, and Perkins School for the Blind. Playing "real" clubs, the vaunted Boogeymen generated 16 sacks and had 5 vs Philadelphia when Carson Wentz was waiting for high school receivers to get open. So people banking on The Boogeymen harassing Tannehill all day are probably going to be getting coal in their stockings. That 2 sack per game rate puts the Boogeymen neck and neck with the "dominant" pass rushes of Oakland and Chicago, who were at 32 for the season. Spare me the ITS NOT ABOUT SACKS ITS ABOUT PRESSURE! Pressure doesn't mean jack schitt when your All Pro Corner is getting constantly burned in coverage and pressure doesn't mean jack schitt when your safeties can't cover tight ends. Call me crazy, but I'll take a sack resulting in 3d and 15 over "pressure" that results in an incompletion.
More fradulent stats from the Boogeymen are the interception numbers. The Boogeymen, that ball hawking ferocious band of defensive backs had TWENTY FIVE pick offs this season and led the league by a wide margin. Again, ****ing fools gold. Of those 25, NINETEEN came in weeks 1-8 vs the aforementioned day school for rich kids, day school for Jewish kids, and day school for blind kids. The Boogeymen generated a total of SIX - ONLY SIX - interceptions once they started playing quarterbacks who just don't hand JC Jackson and Gilmore the ball. Even more pathetic is FOUR of those second half of the season interceptions came vs Andy Dalton.
Basically, over their last games vs competent teams, the New England Patriots average less than two touchdowns a game, two sacks a game, and 0.33 interceptions a game.
Please explain to me how this team's recent performance equals a win on Saturday night? Unless something drastically changes from their last games vs "good" teams - Brady puts up 4 touchdowns, the defense gets 3 or 4 turnovers, the defense sacks Tannehill 5 or 6 times, the defense scores a touch down, or special teams scores a touchdown - I don't see them winning.
Sure, say I'm being negative, but the team is 3-3 vs the last good teams they've faced and I've presented FACTS and opinion based on facts.
Based on these FACTS, it would be fair to say the Pats score 17-20 points Saturday night. They WILL need a turnover or turnovers to hold Tennessee under 20. If the Pats get turnovers they certainly can win the game, but recent defensive performance does not point to generating pressure, sacks, or turnovers. If the Pats play like they did vs Buffalo, their best game in the final 8 (mind you a game where Josh ****ing Allen came within 8 yards of evening the score) they've got a very good chance to win the game - vs Buffalo they pressured AND SACKED Allen, Brady didn't turn it over, they were 50% on third down, had manageable third downs most of the game, and did a good job on third down defense and stopping the run.
GO PATS
