everlong
Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
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- Jan 17, 2007
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If you want to complain the season isn't over yet just don't read the thread.
Perillo had an interesting thought on Brady's salary for next year and used this year's $23M as a baseline. Theory is the Pats would likely want to pay less than that and Brady wants a raise.
Looking at it from a trade off scenario lets just use the $23M as his AAV looking towards a contract for next year. Lets say for simple numbers you could resign Thuney and KVN for a combined average of 10M AAV and you extend Slater for his current salary of 2.6M. Would Bill at this point taken Thuney, KVN, Slater and Stidham for roughly the cost of Brady per year? I think at this stage he would.
This isn't saying that Tom can't still play at a high level or that Bill doesn't believe in him. I think it's all calculations Bill and Ernie are doing in the background in what equates to WARP in baseball where they're figuring out value per dollar spent.
I also believe much like 2009 was the last rodeo for so many of that decades players this is it for the 2010's players. I think Bill is going to infuse a lot of youth into the team next year and a lot of players are going to be made to choose pay cut vs being cut. Watch them go 11-5 next year in what will be a transition year that many will label rebuilding, still win the division and then in 2021 they're retooled for another run.
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Brady landing spots.
Miami: They need too much to retool quick enough even with B-Flo there I can't see it. Also most of the younger posters here probably don't hate the Fins (or Raiders) as much as they should. Growing up those were the teams I hated the most.
49ers: I don't know how this is getting traction given JG is playing really well.
Dallas: This one actually is interesting. For Tom it's high profile and that team has a ton of talent. I think a big part would be who is the coach? For Jerry, it sells tickets and jerseys, buys them huge credibility and sticks it to Bob.
Chargers: Ton of talent. Again not sure about the coaching.
Denver: This is really way out there and I know Elway has publicly stated they aren't changing directions from Lock but winning a SB with both Manning and Brady has to have some allure. Plus Miller is at that age when it's now or never.
Washington: Not sure Tom would go there but I can see Synder making a push to win that fan base back.
Tenn: Tannehill probably gets resigned.
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Although the deck is stacked against the Patriots I still think they can win it all but the margin for error is super thin. They lose a key players they're done. They turn it over they're done. Start giving up big plays......
1. Defense has to start mixing up coverages more.
2. Offense must establish the run.
3. Coupled with #2 Josh has to use play action.
4. Couple with #2 stick with the run until they stop it. It's Mike Martz disease.
5. Red zone on both sides of the ball has to be exceptional.
6. Special teams has to at least win and probably score or create opportunities to score.
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If the Pats don't win it all the order I can stomach other teams winning it. I know people will have drastically different takes on this.
1. 49ers - I like JG, Kittle and others. I know it gives them 6 rings but that will drive Steelers fans madder than Patriots so I can live with it. Also I've let Welker's drops go and would be happy for him winning a ring as a coach.
2. Titans - If not for Lewis they would be number one because I'd love for Vrabel to do well and Logan Ryan as well. Neutral on Butler.
3. Texans - BOB, Romeo, Watson, Watt.......I like a lot of their team.
4. Vikings - I think they might be the team least likely to win it all but they're long suffering and I know quite a few people from that area and I'd love for them to taste victory.
5. Bills - Again long suffering fan base.
6. Seahawks. I like Pete. Unlike their fan base the players still remaining were very gracious in defeat to the Pats, IE Wilson, Wagner, Wright, Lynch....
7. Chiefs - They would have been higher if not for signing Suggs, Clark and Jones shooting their mouths off and the child abuser being on the roster. I'd be happy for Reid getting over the hump and Mahomes seems like a good guy.
8. Eagles - Minus Lane Johnson this is more about the fan base than the team.
9. Saints - This is purely a historical thing where I don't want Brees getting closer to Brady's legacy.
10. Packers - I really don't want to listen to the ball washing of Rodgers.
11. Ravens - God please, no. Even without the likes of Lewis, Scott, Suggs and others not there any longer there is still Winebaugh who admittedly is a great coach but a douche.
Perillo had an interesting thought on Brady's salary for next year and used this year's $23M as a baseline. Theory is the Pats would likely want to pay less than that and Brady wants a raise.
Looking at it from a trade off scenario lets just use the $23M as his AAV looking towards a contract for next year. Lets say for simple numbers you could resign Thuney and KVN for a combined average of 10M AAV and you extend Slater for his current salary of 2.6M. Would Bill at this point taken Thuney, KVN, Slater and Stidham for roughly the cost of Brady per year? I think at this stage he would.
This isn't saying that Tom can't still play at a high level or that Bill doesn't believe in him. I think it's all calculations Bill and Ernie are doing in the background in what equates to WARP in baseball where they're figuring out value per dollar spent.
I also believe much like 2009 was the last rodeo for so many of that decades players this is it for the 2010's players. I think Bill is going to infuse a lot of youth into the team next year and a lot of players are going to be made to choose pay cut vs being cut. Watch them go 11-5 next year in what will be a transition year that many will label rebuilding, still win the division and then in 2021 they're retooled for another run.
--------------------
Brady landing spots.
Miami: They need too much to retool quick enough even with B-Flo there I can't see it. Also most of the younger posters here probably don't hate the Fins (or Raiders) as much as they should. Growing up those were the teams I hated the most.
49ers: I don't know how this is getting traction given JG is playing really well.
Dallas: This one actually is interesting. For Tom it's high profile and that team has a ton of talent. I think a big part would be who is the coach? For Jerry, it sells tickets and jerseys, buys them huge credibility and sticks it to Bob.
Chargers: Ton of talent. Again not sure about the coaching.
Denver: This is really way out there and I know Elway has publicly stated they aren't changing directions from Lock but winning a SB with both Manning and Brady has to have some allure. Plus Miller is at that age when it's now or never.
Washington: Not sure Tom would go there but I can see Synder making a push to win that fan base back.
Tenn: Tannehill probably gets resigned.
--------------------------
Although the deck is stacked against the Patriots I still think they can win it all but the margin for error is super thin. They lose a key players they're done. They turn it over they're done. Start giving up big plays......
1. Defense has to start mixing up coverages more.
2. Offense must establish the run.
3. Coupled with #2 Josh has to use play action.
4. Couple with #2 stick with the run until they stop it. It's Mike Martz disease.
5. Red zone on both sides of the ball has to be exceptional.
6. Special teams has to at least win and probably score or create opportunities to score.
---------------
If the Pats don't win it all the order I can stomach other teams winning it. I know people will have drastically different takes on this.
1. 49ers - I like JG, Kittle and others. I know it gives them 6 rings but that will drive Steelers fans madder than Patriots so I can live with it. Also I've let Welker's drops go and would be happy for him winning a ring as a coach.
2. Titans - If not for Lewis they would be number one because I'd love for Vrabel to do well and Logan Ryan as well. Neutral on Butler.
3. Texans - BOB, Romeo, Watson, Watt.......I like a lot of their team.
4. Vikings - I think they might be the team least likely to win it all but they're long suffering and I know quite a few people from that area and I'd love for them to taste victory.
5. Bills - Again long suffering fan base.
6. Seahawks. I like Pete. Unlike their fan base the players still remaining were very gracious in defeat to the Pats, IE Wilson, Wagner, Wright, Lynch....
7. Chiefs - They would have been higher if not for signing Suggs, Clark and Jones shooting their mouths off and the child abuser being on the roster. I'd be happy for Reid getting over the hump and Mahomes seems like a good guy.
8. Eagles - Minus Lane Johnson this is more about the fan base than the team.
9. Saints - This is purely a historical thing where I don't want Brees getting closer to Brady's legacy.
10. Packers - I really don't want to listen to the ball washing of Rodgers.
11. Ravens - God please, no. Even without the likes of Lewis, Scott, Suggs and others not there any longer there is still Winebaugh who admittedly is a great coach but a douche.