Random Misc Playoff & Offseason thoughts

[everlong]

If you want to complain the season isn't over yet just don't read the thread.

Perillo had an interesting thought on Brady's salary for next year and used this year's $23M as a baseline. Theory is the Pats would likely want to pay less than that and Brady wants a raise.

Looking at it from a trade off scenario lets just use the $23M as his AAV looking towards a contract for next year. Lets say for simple numbers you could resign Thuney and KVN for a combined average of 10M AAV and you extend Slater for his current salary of 2.6M. Would Bill at this point taken Thuney, KVN, Slater and Stidham for roughly the cost of Brady per year? I think at this stage he would.

This isn't saying that Tom can't still play at a high level or that Bill doesn't believe in him. I think it's all calculations Bill and Ernie are doing in the background in what equates to WARP in baseball where they're figuring out value per dollar spent.

I also believe much like 2009 was the last rodeo for so many of that decades players this is it for the 2010's players. I think Bill is going to infuse a lot of youth into the team next year and a lot of players are going to be made to choose pay cut vs being cut. Watch them go 11-5 next year in what will be a transition year that many will label rebuilding, still win the division and then in 2021 they're retooled for another run.
--------------------

Brady landing spots.

Miami: They need too much to retool quick enough even with B-Flo there I can't see it. Also most of the younger posters here probably don't hate the Fins (or Raiders) as much as they should. Growing up those were the teams I hated the most.

49ers: I don't know how this is getting traction given JG is playing really well.

Dallas: This one actually is interesting. For Tom it's high profile and that team has a ton of talent. I think a big part would be who is the coach? For Jerry, it sells tickets and jerseys, buys them huge credibility and sticks it to Bob.

Chargers: Ton of talent. Again not sure about the coaching.

Denver: This is really way out there and I know Elway has publicly stated they aren't changing directions from Lock but winning a SB with both Manning and Brady has to have some allure. Plus Miller is at that age when it's now or never.

Washington: Not sure Tom would go there but I can see Synder making a push to win that fan base back.

Tenn: Tannehill probably gets resigned.
--------------------------

Although the deck is stacked against the Patriots I still think they can win it all but the margin for error is super thin. They lose a key players they're done. They turn it over they're done. Start giving up big plays......

1. Defense has to start mixing up coverages more.
2. Offense must establish the run.
3. Coupled with #2 Josh has to use play action.
4. Couple with #2 stick with the run until they stop it. It's Mike Martz disease.
5. Red zone on both sides of the ball has to be exceptional.
6. Special teams has to at least win and probably score or create opportunities to score.
---------------

If the Pats don't win it all the order I can stomach other teams winning it. I know people will have drastically different takes on this.

1. 49ers - I like JG, Kittle and others. I know it gives them 6 rings but that will drive Steelers fans madder than Patriots so I can live with it. Also I've let Welker's drops go and would be happy for him winning a ring as a coach.

2. Titans - If not for Lewis they would be number one because I'd love for Vrabel to do well and Logan Ryan as well. Neutral on Butler.


3. Texans - BOB, Romeo, Watson, Watt.......I like a lot of their team.

4. Vikings - I think they might be the team least likely to win it all but they're long suffering and I know quite a few people from that area and I'd love for them to taste victory.

5. Bills - Again long suffering fan base.

6. Seahawks. I like Pete. Unlike their fan base the players still remaining were very gracious in defeat to the Pats, IE Wilson, Wagner, Wright, Lynch....

7. Chiefs - They would have been higher if not for signing Suggs, Clark and Jones shooting their mouths off and the child abuser being on the roster. I'd be happy for Reid getting over the hump and Mahomes seems like a good guy.

8. Eagles - Minus Lane Johnson this is more about the fan base than the team.

9. Saints - This is purely a historical thing where I don't want Brees getting closer to Brady's legacy.

10. Packers - I really don't want to listen to the ball washing of Rodgers.

11. Ravens - God please, no. Even without the likes of Lewis, Scott, Suggs and others not there any longer there is still Winebaugh who admittedly is a great coach but a douche.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

Maybe Brady was afraid they would trade him... Kind of like gronk threatening to retire when almost traded to Detroit

 

[luuked]

All of this speculation about Brady and his future depends on two things:

a) does he even want to play another season knowing what to expect in terms of skill players
b) how much of his drop in efficiency and accuracy in 2019 was due to various unrelated factors (WRs being worked in, patchwork OL until after the BYE, various injuries for Brady)

If BB et al are convinced that his drop in play was just the sum of all things going wrong this season there is no reason why they wouldn't want to sign him for 25m or whatever.

But in reality I guess things will not be as black and white and there will definitely be some back and forth before they all decide on whatever the course will be. In that push and pull both sides will need to accept a compromise. Whether they can reach that before whatever deadline BB sets on himself is the real question. Because at some point he will need to act one way or the other with respect to all the other players who have expiring deals.

Same as with Gronk last year.. you can't have one player hold the entire organization hostage. Even if it is Brady. Hopefully calm minds will prevail and they have a deal relatively early.

 

[everlong]

All of this speculation about Brady and his future depends on two things:

a) does he even want to play another season knowing what to expect in terms of skill players
b) how much of his drop in efficiency and accuracy in 2019 was due to various unrelated factors (WRs being worked in, patchwork OL until after the BYE, various injuries for Brady)

If BB et al are convinced that his drop in play was just the sum of all things going wrong this season there is no reason why they wouldn't want to sign him for 25m or whatever.

But in reality I guess things will not be as black and white and there will definitely be some back and forth before they all decide on whatever the course will be. In that push and pull both sides will need to accept a compromise. Whether they can reach that before whatever deadline BB sets on himself is the real question. Because at some point he will need to act one way or the other with respect to all the other players who have expiring deals.

Same as with Gronk last year.. you can't have one player hold the entire organization hostage. Even if it is Brady. Hopefully calm minds will prevail and they have a deal relatively early.

I don't disagree with your two points about Brady. Those are factors Bill will consider when evaluating his contract vs everybody they could sign with that money.

 

[turkeyneck]

so, Brady wants(*):

- better O line
- better receivers
- a raise.

If he really was commited to another ring then he should forgo a raise and maybe even toss money into the OL/receiver kitty.

(*)I don't know that this is so, I'm just taking as given. I think Brady does actually understand the implications of the salary cap vis a vis surrounding talent.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Keep Brady another year and allow Stidham/draft pick to continue to be groomed under him. I mean are we really going to let Stidham take the reins next year? If Brady leaves, I wouldn't be opposed to a veteran transitional QB.

 

[everlong]

Keep Brady another year and allow Stidham/draft pick to continue to be groomed under him. I mean are we really going to let Stidham take the reins next year? If Brady leaves, I wouldn't be opposed to a veteran transitional QB.

It's hard to know if Stidham is ready or not. We all had opinions on Cassel, JG and Brissette but until they saw regular season action you really don't know. I think Bill knew what he had with each though so if he's willing to roll the dice I'd trust him based on historical success. Now we just need that same eye for talent at the receiver position.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Fox Sports is really pushing the narrative that Brady will be moving on from the Pats in offseason because his relationship with BB is in flames, etc. Lots of predictions that he'll go to LA Chargers to open the new stadium

They're running this graphic on a lot of their programming now that shows a End of Pats Dynasty clock to the Tennessee game;

They should live feed this onto a TV in the locker room this week with the volume off

 

[everlong]

Fox Sports is really pushing the narrative that Brady will be moving on from the Pats in offseason because his relationship with BB is in flames, etc. Lots of predictions that he'll go to LA Chargers to open the new stadium

They're running this graphic on a lot of their programming now that shows a End of Pats Dynasty clock to the Tennessee game;

They should live feed this onto a TV in the locker room this week with the volume off

The dynasty ends crap is just click bait. I really don't think there's lasting animosity between Bill and Tom. It's just business friction that most of us have gone through. You look at Law, Seymour, Vrabel, AV and even Milloy and in time they all come to realize it was just business. Bill is the master of bring able to compartmentalize the business and his personal feelings. If Tom is or isn't back it will all come down to economics and vaule.

 

[n6249c]

so, Brady wants(*):
- better O line
- better receivers
- a raise.

If he really was commited to another ring then he should forgo a raise and maybe even toss money into the OL/receiver kitty.

(*)I don't know that this is so, I'm just taking as given. I think Brady does actually understand the implications of the salary cap vis a vis surrounding talent.

Agreed that he wants the first two, not convinced it’s about the money as much as it’s about the rings. It’s clear from his history Brady has that understanding. For years he has signed team friendly deals that didn’t maximize his pay, in order to make the OL/WR kitty healthier.

All the noise about him going to another team isn’t credible to me. If he did it wouldn’t be because they open the bank vault. It would be because he thinks it’s a place he will (not can, will) win another ring. Not a team with potential, rather a team with the overall organization to be the best in the NFL. In other words, an O line that will be solid. WRs that will consistently gat open and make catches. A running game good enough to balance the offense. A defense that will keep every game from being a shootout. And a coaching staff good enough to make that all work. With their one need a QB with just a couple of years, maybe three max, remaining in his career to win them a Super Bowl.

So look at the potential landing spots through that lens and tell me which team fits? Ask yourself, is Brady going to go to a team that is not an instant contender when he signs? So who is that?

The way I see it, retirement is most likely, followed by return to the Patriots, and least likely is signing with another team, very unlikely to be signing with a team that is not already only a QB away from being the odds-on Super Bowl favorite.

 

[Ring 6]

If you want to complain the season isn't over yet just don't read the thread.

Perillo had an interesting thought on Brady's salary for next year and used this year's $23M as a baseline. Theory is the Pats would likely want to pay less than that and Brady wants a raise.

Looking at it from a trade off scenario lets just use the $23M as his AAV looking towards a contract for next year. Lets say for simple numbers you could resign Thuney and KVN for a combined average of 10M AAV and you extend Slater for his current salary of 2.6M. Would Bill at this point taken Thuney, KVN, Slater and Stidham for roughly the cost of Brady per year? I think at this stage he would.

This isn't saying that Tom can't still play at a high level or that Bill doesn't believe in him. I think it's all calculations Bill and Ernie are doing in the background in what equates to WARP in baseball where they're figuring out value per dollar spent.

I also believe much like 2009 was the last rodeo for so many of that decades players this is it for the 2010's players. I think Bill is going to infuse a lot of youth into the team next year and a lot of players are going to be made to choose pay cut vs being cut. Watch them go 11-5 next year in what will be a transition year that many will label rebuilding, still win the division and then in 2021 they're retooled for another run.
--------------------

Brady landing spots.

Miami: They need too much to retool quick enough even with B-Flo there I can't see it. Also most of the younger posters here probably don't hate the Fins (or Raiders) as much as they should. Growing up those were the teams I hated the most.

49ers: I don't know how this is getting traction given JG is playing really well.

Dallas: This one actually is interesting. For Tom it's high profile and that team has a ton of talent. I think a big part would be who is the coach? For Jerry, it sells tickets and jerseys, buys them huge credibility and sticks it to Bob.

Chargers: Ton of talent. Again not sure about the coaching.

Denver: This is really way out there and I know Elway has publicly stated they aren't changing directions from Lock but winning a SB with both Manning and Brady has to have some allure. Plus Miller is at that age when it's now or never.

Washington: Not sure Tom would go there but I can see Synder making a push to win that fan base back.

Tenn: Tannehill probably gets resigned.
--------------------------

Although the deck is stacked against the Patriots I still think they can win it all but the margin for error is super thin. They lose a key players they're done. They turn it over they're done. Start giving up big plays......

1. Defense has to start mixing up coverages more.
2. Offense must establish the run.
3. Coupled with #2 Josh has to use play action.
4. Couple with #2 stick with the run until they stop it. It's Mike Martz disease.
5. Red zone on both sides of the ball has to be exceptional.
6. Special teams has to at least win and probably score or create opportunities to score.
---------------

If the Pats don't win it all the order I can stomach other teams winning it. I know people will have drastically different takes on this.

1. 49ers - I like JG, Kittle and others. I know it gives them 6 rings but that will drive Steelers fans madder than Patriots so I can live with it. Also I've let Welker's drops go and would be happy for him winning a ring as a coach.

2. Titans - If not for Lewis they would be number one because I'd love for Vrabel to do well and Logan Ryan as well. Neutral on Butler.


3. Texans - BOB, Romeo, Watson, Watt.......I like a lot of their team.

4. Vikings - I think they might be the team least likely to win it all but they're long suffering and I know quite a few people from that area and I'd love for them to taste victory.

5. Bills - Again long suffering fan base.

6. Seahawks. I like Pete. Unlike their fan base the players still remaining were very gracious in defeat to the Pats, IE Wilson, Wagner, Wright, Lynch....

7. Chiefs - They would have been higher if not for signing Suggs, Clark and Jones shooting their mouths off and the child abuser being on the roster. I'd be happy for Reid getting over the hump and Mahomes seems like a good guy.

8. Eagles - Minus Lane Johnson this is more about the fan base than the team.

9. Saints - This is purely a historical thing where I don't want Brees getting closer to Brady's legacy.

10. Packers - I really don't want to listen to the ball washing of Rodgers.

11. Ravens - God please, no. Even without the likes of Lewis, Scott, Suggs and others not there any longer there is still Winebaugh who admittedly is a great coach but a douche.

Signing other players and likely having the worst QB in the nfl replacing the GOAT would be equivalent to tanking and we are probably looking at 4-12.

Brady is still Brady but he is older. The reason Brady is the GOAT isn’t all 1200 plays in a season. Many QBs who will never sniff a title much less win one every 3 years, get to a Sb every 2 years and get to a conference championship 70% of the time put up nice passing numbers. Hell brees and manning put up better numbers but couldn’t win neatly as much.
What separates Brady is when he needs to put the team in his back (whether for a play, a drive, or a game) he plays his best and gets the job done far more than any one ever has.
It’s still there.
If you are talking about dumping Brady because you have a 9-7 team with no chance that he can elevate it to a championship that make sense. His unique, special, generational, historic talents wouldn’t be needed.
But if you want to compete for a championship and have the choice of Tom Brady as your QB, even at 43, you don’t pass on that.

As far as this postseason there is no magically formula. It’s 4 one game winning streaks (to paraphrase tedy).
They need to game plan and execute and make enough plays to win 4 times.
Whatever the odds they certainly are capable of doing that. They had KC beaten but for the refs. They had Baltimore on the ropes but for the scoop and score.
This staff will no doubt have a better game plan ready for both if thise teams the second time around.

If they actually go out and do it this will be the most legendary. But people are taking like its impossible and there are plenty examples of teams that linked into the post season played in the wild card round and ended up in, and winning the SB.
Why any patriot fan would doubt that this team is capable of overcoming odds that plenty of other teams have us surprising to me.

 

[everlong]

Signing other players and likely having the worst QB in the nfl replacing the GOAT would be equivalent to tanking and we are probably looking at 4-12.

Brady is still Brady but he is older. The reason Brady is the GOAT isn’t all 1200 plays in a season. Many QBs who will never sniff a title much less win one every 3 years, get to a Sb every 2 years and get to a conference championship 70% of the time put up nice passing numbers. Hell brees and manning put up better numbers but couldn’t win neatly as much.
What separates Brady is when he needs to put the team in his back (whether for a play, a drive, or a game) he plays his best and gets the job done far more than any one ever has.
It’s still there.
If you are talking about dumping Brady because you have a 9-7 team with no chance that he can elevate it to a championship that make sense. His unique, special, generational, historic talents wouldn’t be needed.
But if you want to compete for a championship and have the choice of Tom Brady as your QB, even at 43, you don’t pass on that.

As far as this postseason there is no magically formula. It’s 4 one game winning streaks (to paraphrase tedy).
They need to game plan and execute and make enough plays to win 4 times.
Whatever the odds they certainly are capable of doing that. They had KC beaten but for the refs. They had Baltimore on the ropes but for the scoop and score.
This staff will no doubt have a better game plan ready for both if thise teams the second time around.

If they actually go out and do it this will be the most legendary. But people are taking like its impossible and there are plenty examples of teams that linked into the post season played in the wild card round and ended up in, and winning the SB.
Why any patriot fan would doubt that this team is capable of overcoming odds that plenty of other teams have us surprising to me.

I'm not talking about dumping Brady. I'm talking about Bill doing math to determine what the next move is. I think it's equally as likely Brady is resigned as allowed to walk in FA.

What if Tom wants a 3/90 deal and Bill wants 2/32? That's a long way apart. Again it's also going to come down to an emotionless equation where Bill decides the right thing to do?

Me personally? I think Tom still has a lot left in the tank. If he had the weapons and line Brees does you would see similar numbers if not better. You watch the Saints and on the rare occasions Brees is faced with the pressure Tom has he's looked bad. I also don't believe he's not dealing with an injury.

BUT, Tom isn't blameless either. I think his footwork has been inconsistent leading to a lot of his issues when receivers aren't dropping balls or the OL isn't being porous.

I don't subscribe to your theory Stidham would be the worst QB in the NFL out of the gate. I think he would actually probably be better than the likes of Tribisky, Cousins, Haskins, Darnold, Winston and others. I know Winston put up big yardage but he's a turnover machine.

 

[luuked]

I don't subscribe to your theory Stidham would be the worst QB in the NFL out of the gate. I think he would actually probably be better than the likes of Tribisky, Cousins, Haskins, Darnold, Winston and others. I know Winston put up big yardage but he's a turnover machine.

Exactly what has Stidham shown for you to claim that ?

He looked abysmal in the only exposure he had against actual NFL level defenses and not the pre-season future-salesman squads.

Mind you I am not saying he is awful. Just that we have seen exactly nothing of him so far to compare him to the ones you mentioned.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm not talking about dumping Brady. I'm talking about Bill doing math to determine what the next move is. I think it's equally as likely Brady is resigned as allowed to walk in FA.

What if Tom wants a 3/90 deal and Bill wants 2/32? That's a long way apart. Again it's also going to come down to an emotionless equation where Bill decides the right thing to do?

You can’t pay 16 mill when bad QBs are making much more than that.

Me personally? I think Tom still has a lot left in the tank. If he had the weapons and line Brees does you would see similar numbers if not better. You watch the Saints and on the rare occasions Brees is faced with the pressure Tom has he's looked bad. I also don't believe he's not dealing with an injury.

BUT, Tom isn't blameless either. I think his footwork has been inconsistent leading to a lot of his issues when receivers aren't dropping balls or the OL isn't being porous.

His footwork has been fine. The protection and no open receivers is the issue. He’s been injured and made some bad throws but that’s the injury not the player.

I don't subscribe to your theory Stidham would be the worst QB in the NFL out of the gate. I think he would actually probably be better than the likes of Tribisky, Cousins, Haskins, Darnold, Winston and others. I know Winston put up big yardage but he's a turnover machine.

Based upon what? Naming a bunch of guys you don’t like (including a playoff qb and a guy taken 100 spots higher in the same draft) doesn’t make stidham a capable QB. There is nothing telling us he is capable. If this were a year ago you would have an equal argument to say etling instead of stidham in the sane comments.

 

[everlong]

Exactly what has Stidham shown for you to claim that ?

He looked abysmal in the only exposure he had against actual NFL level defenses and not the pre-season future-salesman squads.

Mind you I am not saying he is awful. Just that we have seen exactly nothing of him so far to compare him to the ones you mentioned.

1. He got to observe the goat for a year. It's paid off for the others mentioned in the thread.
2. The coaching. Bill will manage him with a slow build.
3. Yes he looked awful against the Jets but that was after sitting for a long period. He started to show good signs in the preseason, better than any of the backups previously have.

 

[everlong]

You can’t pay 16 mill when bad QBs are making much more than that.


His footwork has been fine. The protection and no open receivers is the issue. He’s been injured and made some bad throws but that’s the injury not the player.


Based upon what? Naming a bunch of guys you don’t like (including a playoff qb and a guy taken 100 spots higher in the same draft) doesn’t make stidham a capable QB. There is nothing telling us he is capable. If this were a year ago you would have an equal argument to say etling instead of stidham in the sane comments.

The point wasn't the dollar amount. The point was the divide between Bill and Tom's salary expectations.

His footwork has not been fine. Even without pressure he hasn't been squaring up like he always has when coming off one receiver to another.

See post above as to why I view him favorably but again as I stated in previous posts we don't have enough information to know how good he'll be or how Bill views him. You saying he'll be the worst QB in the league out of the gate is just as subjective. Because he threw one bad pick? Based on that Tom is done after the Rowe pick.

 

[skinnydog]

so, Brady wants(*):

- better O line
- better receivers
- a raise.

If he really was commited to another ring then he should forgo a raise and maybe even toss money into the OL/receiver kitty.

(*)I don't know that this is so, I'm just taking as given. I think Brady does actually understand the implications of the salary cap vis a vis surrounding talent.

With a better OLine and receivers (and TEs) he stays for no raise or even 20 per year. I can’t help but think he looks at Brees and says why not me!

 

[everlong]

With a better OLine and receivers (and TEs) he stays for no raise or even 20 per year. I can’t help but think he looks at Brees and says why not me!

I totally agree. The signs point to Bill not seeing that way.

 

[Ring 6]

The point wasn't the dollar amount. The point was the divide between Bill and Tom's salary expectations.

You don’t know there is a divide. You just made one up.

His footwork has not been fine. Even without pressure he hasn't been squaring up like he always has when coming off one receiver to another.

We disagree

See post above as to why I view him favorably but again as I stated in previous posts we don't have enough information to know how good he'll be or how Bill views him. You saying he'll be the worst QB in the league out of the gate is just as subjective. Because he threw one bad pick? Based on that Tom is done after the Rowe pick.

Because that is what is most likely. He came into the league regarded beneath everyone who is a starting QB and had done absolutely nothing to change that.
Your post above has nothing to do with stidham, as I said plus etling in for him and there is just as much reason to believe.

but to address the reasons you listed
1) who are the examples that Brady osmosis makes you a good qb? Most have failed
2) you think he will be a good QB because they will dumb down the offense? That makes him a bad qb. You hurt the offense by dumbing it down.
3) huh?

 

[Ring 6]

I totally agree. The signs point to Bill not seeing that way.

What signs?