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On the Game Day Roster
- Joined
- Sep 27, 2007
- Messages
- 302
- Reaction score
- 114
People are pointing out that there are "holes" and "softness" in the Pats defense. I know it's been pretty good overall, but we've given up a 2-3 touchdowns per game to some decent offensive teams. We've seen sustained drives from SD, Buffalo, Dallas resulting in 7 points.
Some are nervous because this is not the "shutdown D" we've seen the Pats flash in other years when we would have to win some games 9-0, 12-0, 13-7, or some tight game where we needed a tough stops in crunch time, or to manufacture a critical turnover.
But, we haven't been tested at all this way. You really have to adjust for situational football to assess our D. The offense has been playing so well, so early in games means the D is way ahead much of the time by halftime or before. OK, now you're BB/Dean Pees. What is the optimal strategy in that situation? You clearly reorient to avoid big plays, allow short passes, don't cheat to go for a risky interception, even allow sustained drives that look like someone is going up and down the field, as long as they chew a lot of clock.
Analogy to baseball: A pitcher pitches very differently when he has a 7 run lead than a 1 run lead. Throw strikes, avoid walks and big innings at all costs. That's why you sometimes see a pitcher up by 7 runs give up a couple of solo home runs but still win 7-2. Big deal--you're way better off doing this than walking 3 guys by nibbling and then losing in a big inning.
Pats are smart enough to adjust this way. It's not necessarily a bad thing, and it gives the best chance to win the game. Colts have been optimized to play this way for years, it's just newer to us around here.
So here's the question: If/when our O has an off day, and we need to play a tougher, or "'riskier" form of D where you optimize around not allowing the opponent to score 10, can we do it? I think we COULD do a shutdown if we needed to, but we will need to see it in live game conditions.
Some are nervous because this is not the "shutdown D" we've seen the Pats flash in other years when we would have to win some games 9-0, 12-0, 13-7, or some tight game where we needed a tough stops in crunch time, or to manufacture a critical turnover.
But, we haven't been tested at all this way. You really have to adjust for situational football to assess our D. The offense has been playing so well, so early in games means the D is way ahead much of the time by halftime or before. OK, now you're BB/Dean Pees. What is the optimal strategy in that situation? You clearly reorient to avoid big plays, allow short passes, don't cheat to go for a risky interception, even allow sustained drives that look like someone is going up and down the field, as long as they chew a lot of clock.
Analogy to baseball: A pitcher pitches very differently when he has a 7 run lead than a 1 run lead. Throw strikes, avoid walks and big innings at all costs. That's why you sometimes see a pitcher up by 7 runs give up a couple of solo home runs but still win 7-2. Big deal--you're way better off doing this than walking 3 guys by nibbling and then losing in a big inning.
Pats are smart enough to adjust this way. It's not necessarily a bad thing, and it gives the best chance to win the game. Colts have been optimized to play this way for years, it's just newer to us around here.
So here's the question: If/when our O has an off day, and we need to play a tougher, or "'riskier" form of D where you optimize around not allowing the opponent to score 10, can we do it? I think we COULD do a shutdown if we needed to, but we will need to see it in live game conditions.
