OT-ish: The gambling thread

[supafly]

I’m thinking about SF-3 on Sunday night. Seems to be another challenging slate of games.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Ballsy call on the Penguins, as they are 1-7-1 in their last 9 versus NJ. I actually considered it myself since I think they’ve been close lately, having lost the past two games in OT. Plus, I liked the home ice factor. I didn’t do anything today, though.

Pitt was about to drop 6 of 7 if they lost that IIRC.

I knew they would fight hard and thought it would be an easy pick. Luckily it turned out. Had a 2 goal lead vs Isles the other night so they were there

Beside my last weekend NFL picks. Hockey is my jam right now. May not bet the NFL tomorrow and just NHL tonight

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

LA tech would have completed an unreal parlay. Now they are blowing it. Ugh. 7 team would have hit

 

[woolster22]

Bought Texans down to 2.5 parlayed with the under for a good start to the week. Thankfully, it seemed Brisset was gutting through something, similar to the bradyless bills debacle a few years back.

Am i missing something with Seattle? I'd take em -2.5 and got em even on the money line...philly just isn't very good. What has Wentz done since his rookie year? Receivers banged up, d is ok to good.

Oakland over jets feels like free money. The Jets wilk be over confident, and Gruden has quietly started building something real, and he hasn't even seen what his draft lottery haul is yet. How stupid does chicago look right now?

Might throw a few bucks at the carolina money line on a parlay lotto ticket. Saints remind me of mid dynasty pats. Pretty good d, pretty good o. Lots of ways to match up, injuries have forced their hand a bit, but they just keep winning. Shootout or slugfest, they've won both. Carolina is the type of team that could do enough to disrupt NO's game plan and steal one on the road. Decisions, decisions.

Because i am posting this, Jets will win by 3 scores in a route, ditto NO, and Wentz will light up Seattle to eke one out late.

 

[supafly]

Bought Texans down to 2.5 parlayed with the under for a good start to the week. Thankfully, it seemed Brisset was gutting through something, similar to the bradyless bills debacle a few years back.

Am i missing something with Seattle? I'd take em -2.5 and got em even on the money line...philly just isn't very good. What has Wentz done since his rookie year? Receivers banged up, d is ok to good.

Oakland over jets feels like free money. The Jets wilk be over confident, and Gruden has quietly started building something real, and he hasn't even seen what his draft lottery haul is yet. How stupid does chicago look right now?

Might throw a few bucks at the carolina money line on a parlay lotto ticket. Saints remind me of mid dynasty pats. Pretty good d, pretty good o. Lots of ways to match up, injuries have forced their hand a bit, but they just keep winning. Shootout or slugfest, they've won both. Carolina is the type of team that could do enough to disrupt NO's game plan and steal one on the road. Decisions, decisions.

Because i am posting this, Jets will win by 3 scores in a route, ditto NO, and Wentz will light up Seattle to eke one out late.

Not suggesting that SEA is a bad pick because I may take them as well (or not), but there’s the whole West coast traveling 3x zones East thing, (ditto for OAK), but there’s also a possibility that Clowney doesn’t play and that changes the defense substantially. I’m going to wait on that one until 11:30 am when the inactives are announced.

 

[fightingirish595]

Not suggesting that SEA is a bad pick because I may take them as well (or not), but there’s the whole West coast traveling 3x zones East thing, (ditto for OAK), but there’s also a possibility that Clowney doesn’t play and that changes the defense substantially. I’m going to wait on that one until 11:30 am when the inactives are announced.

I did the research on that angle earlier in the season and it’s not as effective as I thought. I don’t even look for it anymore.
Edit: I did a quick google search. This isn’t the original piece I read but pretty much highlights the same thing West Coast Teams Traveling East Betting Trends - 5Dimes

 

[fightingirish595]

I foresee a great day for favorites today

 

[woolster22]

Does anyone think the bears can even score a td w/o the defense contributing? Giants d has been atrocious, but the Bears offense has been Buddy Ryan, self sabotage level bad.

Their GM needs to be shown out. That defense. That record. Inexcuable. Remember how hot the Pats D started off? Chicago has been doing that to everyone they play for 2 seasons now.

Heard Romo talking about a 6 man front for the Rams that "The patriots cooked up for the SB." We took that right out of Chicago's tape. They literally moved the Rams offense backwards at will in a SNF/MNF ass kicking last year. Their offense still tried to blow it.

Don't worry Mitch, maybe the Jets will sign you!

 

[woolster22]

I did the research on that angle earlier in the season and it’s not as effective as I thought. I don’t even look for it anymore.
Edit: I did a quick google search. This isn’t the original piece I read but pretty much highlights the same thing West Coast Teams Traveling East Betting Trends - 5Dimes

I believe this came up (on this board) with SD years back in the AFCCG, and once or twice around then in the playoffs. It really isn't statistically much different than any other road game, where theres enough different things at play for the historical -3@home to remain steady. The focus became the stats around that specific team for a few years, who were in fact not playing well on the east coast for a stretch but then won a few out here to render it an apparent anomaly rather than rule.

Oakland -3
Giants +7.5
Seattle even$

Last time I posted what i thought here, I took a bath

 

[woolster22]

Trubisky benched at end of their last game for awful performance. He had already been hissy with media. The offensive side of the ball is such a mess they are rendering a potentially historic defensive unit useless.

If anyone wants to ***** about Brady and Co seeming out of whack, go watch a Chicago game.

 

[fightingirish595]

I believe this came up (on this board) with SD years back in the AFCCG, and once or twice around then in the playoffs. It really isn't statistically much different than any other road game, where theres enough different things at play for the historical -3@home to remain steady. The focus became the stats around that specific team for a few years, who were in fact not playing well on the east coast for a stretch but then won a few out here to render it an apparent anomaly rather than rule.

Oakland -3
Giants +7.5
Seattle even$

Last time I posted what i thought here, I took a bath

If you go back far enough in this very thread I think there is a discussion about it prior to the ravens playoff game against LA last year.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Had Bruins ML with the O5.5
Oilers ML +160
Sharks ML -110

Screw football at this point!

 

[fightingirish595]

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Panthers ML and possible PL tonight. You're welcome

And Bengals ML

 

[maust]

Oak-3, ATL -3, Sea +3, Det-1.5

 

[maust]

Panthers ML and possible PL tonight. You're welcome

And Bengals ML

You may be a legend (in your own mind) but I have no idea what anyone should be thanking you for

 

[supafly]

I did the research on that angle earlier in the season and it’s not as effective as I thought. I don’t even look for it anymore.
Edit: I did a quick google search. This isn’t the original piece I read but pretty much highlights the same thing West Coast Teams Traveling East Betting Trends - 5Dimes

Off the top of my head, I want to say that historically, NFL teams only win approx. 40% of the time when traveling three time zones West to East. Does that sound about right?

 

[woolster22]

Raiders crushed me! Lol, seattle more than made up for that boneheaded call.

Left NE alone. Put a decent amount on Ten/under. Looking good, though ten's 14 pts in 5 minutes will have me wondering about the total pretty soon...

If i win that Ill probably toss a bit on a Garapolo td wager or something to make tonight interesting. Tomorrow, I fully expect baltimore to handily win. Not sure if I'll be betting the over or not...

 

[maust]

Raiders crushed me! Lol, seattle more than made up for that boneheaded call.

Left NE alone. Put a decent amount on Ten/under. Looking good, though ten's 14 pts in 5 minutes will have me wondering about the total pretty soon...

Seattle saved my bacon as well. They were my only win but I had $200 on them vs $50 on my 3 losing plays. Oakland...WTH...

 

[fightingirish595]

Did another if bet with the titans leading off. So grabbed leg 1. Have 9ers -3 second. Pats -5.5 after that which already lost.

Coleman first Td to win 400