My Random Draft Thoughts Thread

[manxman2601]

I’m starting to get nervous about them taking a DB at 32. Jonathan Abrams perhaps. Joejuan Williams, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. I like the players but I don’t like the value compared to other gaps on the roster. If they go in that direction, they’ll have to nail the rest of the draft for me to feel happy about it.

 

[mgteich]

The value is unlikely to be there at TE or WR. Some now think that Little will be gone at OT, and that the value won't be there either. It is not clear will value any of the remaining DL's highly enough to draft one.

So, yup, I could see a safety being the highest value to Belichick. I can't see a CB.

I’m starting to get nervous about them taking a DB at 32. Jonathan Abrams perhaps. Joejuan Williams, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. I like the players but I don’t like the value compared to other gaps on the roster. If they go in that direction, they’ll have to nail the rest of the draft for me to feel happy about it.

 

[captain stone]

I really am starting to think that Chris Lindstrom will be gone by 32 which pains me as I was really coming round to the pick. Daniel Jeremiah has him going at 27, heck, Mel Kiper suggested he go to the Packers at 12. He’s one of those very late risers you see every year that ends up going much higher than you expected.

I don't value guard so I'm ok with him being not available although he might be the best guard in the draft.

He’s also a RT and a center.

With possible LT traits/measurables.

 

[manxman2601]

With possible LT traits/measurables.

Yup. I think he can, at a stretch, play any position on the OL.

 

[ashley]

Good post Bob. I generally agree with everything you said except for the part about the OL. I think we have to come out of this draft with at least 1 OT. We have Cannon, who's often injured, Wynn who's never played an NFL game and our top backup is Croston who from watching preseason games, couldn't block me. I think we need to draft one early.

Thoughts

#1 Trading up likely makes no sense in round one. I just don't think the board will give us a reason to.

#2 Trading out of the first is a real possibility. While I like the 5th year option it is possible this board could fall in such a way where trading down is the best move. Luckily the #32 pick will always be in demand cause a team will want that 5th year option. If things break badly for us I could see it happening.

#3 This may be one of the best 3rd round I've seen in a long time. Usually the Pats do very bad in the 3rd but this one will be REALLY good. They better hit in it. Frankly I don't think I'll look back at the 4th round as being good value. By the time the Pats pick in the 4th I don't think I'll care for many options.

#4 While I'd love to trade down and stock up on talented guys this draft I keep reminding myself our roster just don't have room for it. I certainly don't believe we'll leave the first 3 rounds of this draft with 6 players. We're for sure going to trade at least 1 pick into next year and I think we'll pass up on someone I really like to do it.

#5 While I'd like to leave this draft with a bunch of good players in reality the Patriots only need to leave this one particular draft with three things. DL help, 1 WR, 1 TE. While I'd like them to get some safety help, OL help and maybe a double dip at the offensive skill position it isn't absolutely needed. What is needed is to at least get those spots worked out. That all being said if they don't leave this draft with 2 legit WR options I think they'll have missed an opportunity.

#6 Roster building is important, but in the end what wins or loses you a super bowl isn't 63 guys, 53 guys or even 46 guys. It's more like 40 guys with 20 core players. If they leave this draft with 3 true core players that be amazing.

 

[mgteich]

I agree.

Given the quality of this year's OL class compared to next's, I suggest that it is a good idea to come out of this draft with 2 potential starters, an OT and an OG/C. Karras would be our #8 OL.

Good post Bob. I generally agree with everything you said except for the part about the OL. I think we have to come out of this draft with at least 1 OT. We have Cannon, who's often injured, Wynn who's never played an NFL game and our top backup is Croston who from watching preseason games, couldn't block me. I think we need to draft one early.

 

[captain stone]

Good post Bob. I generally agree with everything you said except for the part about the OL. I think we have to come out of this draft with at least 1 OT. We have Cannon, who's often injured, Wynn who's never played an NFL game and our top backup is Croston who from watching preseason games, couldn't block me. I think we need to draft one early.

So do I.

As day 2 ends Friday night, we need to emerge from it with a DE, TE, WR, and an OLman with either LT experience or LT traits/measurables.

 

[patfanken]

My 2 cents

1. Again thanks to all the previous contributors and Manx's hard work. It is much more fun to criticize someone else's work that actually DO the work yourself.

2. I'm OK with trading up, but I want that pick to be on the DL, Tillery, Simmonds, Lawrence. I think it will be hard to see any of those 3 at 32, but all 3 should be there in the early 20's Though I can see a scenario where Simmonds fall to the top of the 2nd.

3. I'm not that worried about the OL with an early pick. I would be shocked if the Pats don't sign an experienced FA OT before came to fill Waddle's role. Though I certainly wouldn't shock me if we get one in the 2nd or 3rd rounds

4. To Manx's mock - I still can't get excited about Irv Smith. At best he's an undersized move TE, and HB. I don't get the value even in the 2nd. Much more interested in Dawson in the 2nd or Warring, Oliver, or Sternberger in the 3rd. Right now Warring is my TE choice because of potential plus value.

5. In your mock, Manx, you draft 12 guys and add another in a trade. Just too many guys. I'm hoping at least 2 picks get moved to 2020 and another 2 be used to move up in various rounds. I really only want to see 8 rookies come out of this draft.

6. The reason I'm kind of rejecting the idea of getting a WR earlier than 64 is that there seems to be SO many potential decent WR prospects that people are talking about that will still be there in the 3rd and 4th rounds.....and below.

7. As far as picking a WR, I really want a true speed guy like Isabella.

\Manx - you really like Hardman. Do you like him over Isabella and if so why. BTW I couldn't find a 40 or 3 cone time for Hardman.

I also want a big body WR that's a 3rd or 4th round guy like Boykin or Baker. Maybe there is some developmental big WR out there.

8. In my Ideal draft scenario we get Simmons after a small trade down at the top of 2nd and pocket a future 3rd pick in 2020. Then grab Fergeson at 56. Then with our DT and Edge prospect on board we trun to the offense and grab our TE at 64, say Warring. We have 3 picks in the third and use one to move up in the round and pick up a 5th rounder and grab Isabella and use the other 3rd rounder on Boykins/Baker. Using a 4th or 5th we trade that pick for McCoy. In the 5th we add the OT, and after that I simply don't care.

9. In the end we have the DT of the future in Simmons and McCoy on what might be a one year rental, who solidifies our interior DL and becomes a real inside threat on the rush. Plus an edge rusher with potential who can compete with Rivers for snaps.. We have a TE with a high ceiling and 2 WR's who give us more speed and size. We use what pick is left after the McCoy trade to grab that Scar project.

You can blame Toys for that McCoy trade. It was his idea and now I can't get it out of my head. It's too perfect. Now the Simmonds pick makes more sense, since we have McCoy while he heals.

 

[manxman2601]

Ok, time for my final mock. I really don’t feel very confident about much this year. It’s difficult because we do have so many needs. This is going to be a heavily offense based mock, especially in the early rounds, because I think the defensive needs are mainly on the Dl but can be addressed via free agents (Allen Bailey, Danny Shelton, maybe Ziggy Ansah).

No Trades

For this mock I’ll be using a combination of Daniel Jeremiah’s, top 100, Gil Brandt’s top 150 and the CBS big board.

32. Chris Lindstrom, OL, Boston College

Lindstrom feels like a Pats pick. He has the right character, athleticism and position versatility (experience at RT) and, of course, was worked out by Dante who, apparently, talked to him for a while according to one report. That allied with the apparent interest in RT types at the top of the draft only makes this pick more likely in my eyes. I really like Big Dex and he’s have been my other option but all three boards I’m using have Lawrence going higher than 32. Frank;y, with the buzz he’s been getting, I’m not convinced Lindstrom will still be available.

56. Will Grier, QB, W Virginia

The Patriots take a QB every 2-3 years so we’re due (if you don’t count Etling). It is time for the succession plan and short of selling out for THE guy, taking shots like this seems like a good strategy. There’s certainly been plenty linking Grier to the Pats and we’ve shown some level of interest. I thought long and hard about Joejuan Williams, Juan Thornhill or Zach Allen here but as I said, we’re due another QB pick.

64. Mecole Hardman, WR, Georgia

I think ultimately there’ll be a trade for a WR either during or after the draft (Sanu is my choice as of now) and I don’t think the Pats will look to draft a WR with the intention of getting significant production year one. But Hardman’s return ability on punts and kickoffs is something we’re lacking. Throw in the interest shown, the Georgia connection and the fact that he has 4.3 speed makes me like the chances of this pick happening. I don’t expect much more than a Cordarelle Patterson role in year one.

73. Terry McLaurin, WR, Ohio State

I would like them to draft two WRs and I struggled over this one. My other option was excellent route runner Diontae Johnson, but his athleticism is poor. McLaurin has aced the pre-draft process and has an A+ character as well as being a special teams demon - and that’s the decider for me as rosterability is an important factor for no 3/4 WRs.

97. Josh Oliver, TE, San Jose St

i’m Comfortable with any of Sternberger, Knox, Oliver, and to a lesser degree, Warring. What won it for Oliver were his hands. They’re big at nearly 11” and with his very good ability to adjust to the ball in the air, makes him someone who can pluck errant throws. TE is quite tough for me to predict.

101. Anthony Nelson, DL, Iowa

Time to add some defensive talent. The Patriots have been taking a good look at DEs that also provide the ability to kick inside and whilst I like Zach Allen more, Nelson is good compensation at this point in the draft. There are two things that stand out for me with Allen. Firstly, his athletic profile is very good, right up there with Chandler Jones and Joey Bosa. Secondly, he’s been productive with at least 50 pressures in each of his three seasons and he has excellent length at 6’7” and 35” arms. I’d actually like him to add 15-20lbs and become, potentially, a very good pass rushing 5-tech because he does lack some bend to be a typical 4-3 EDGE.

134. Bryce Love, RB, Stanford

A redshirt year that nets you a serious talent for 2020. I’m very willing to take the hit on that in 2019 to get someone of Love’s calibre.

205. Derrick Baity, CB, Kentucky

The Pats have been looking at 6’2” corners, one of which is Derrick Baity. I missed out on Joejuan Williams in the 2nd round by drafting Will Grier, so why not bring another into camp, one we have met with.

239. Terez Hall, LB, Missouri

A very aggressive and physical, though undersized, linebacker we’ve worked out twice, including once by Mayo. Special teamer.

243. Nick Easley, WR, Iowa

Excellent slot receiver that reminded me of Edelman in terms of the quickness of his routes and his willingness to be physical.

246. Jesse Aniebonam, EDGE, Maryland

A visit.

252. Nick Allegretti, OL, Illinois

Just feels like the perfect Pats pick. 2x team captain, former wrestler, smart (42 on wonderlic), former Ted Karras teammate and someone we’ve had contact with. Ideal late round/UDFA pick.

Players that just missed out:

Joejuan Williams at 56
Dionatae Johnson (opted for McLaurin instead)
Stanley Morgan Jnr (McLaurin again).
Dexter Lawrence (very close between him and Lindstrom). Just wasn’t convinced Lawrence would be there at 32.

 

[manxman2601]

My 2 cents

1. Again thanks to all the previous contributors and Manx's hard work. It is much more fun to criticize someone else's work that actually DO the work yourself.

2. I'm OK with trading up, but I want that pick to be on the DL, Tillery, Simmonds, Lawrence. I think it will be hard to see any of those 3 at 32, but all 3 should be there in the early 20's Though I can see a scenario where Simmonds fall to the top of the 2nd.

3. I'm not that worried about the OL with an early pick. I would be shocked if the Pats don't sign an experienced FA OT before came to fill Waddle's role. Though I certainly wouldn't shock me if we get one in the 2nd or 3rd rounds

4. To Manx's mock - I still can't get excited about Irv Smith. At best he's an undersized move TE, and HB. I don't get the value even in the 2nd. Much more interested in Dawson in the 2nd or Warring, Oliver, or Sternberger in the 3rd. Right now Warring is my TE choice because of potential plus value.

5. In your mock, Manx, you draft 12 guys and add another in a trade. Just too many guys. I'm hoping at least 2 picks get moved to 2020 and another 2 be used to move up in various rounds. I really only want to see 8 rookies come out of this draft.

6. The reason I'm kind of rejecting the idea of getting a WR earlier than 64 is that there seems to be SO many potential decent WR prospects that people are talking about that will still be there in the 3rd and 4th rounds.....and below.

7. As far as picking a WR, I really want a true speed guy like Isabella.

\Manx - you really like Hardman. Do you like him over Isabella and if so why. BTW I couldn't find a 40 or 3 cone time for Hardman.

I also want a big body WR that's a 3rd or 4th round guy like Boykin or Baker. Maybe there is some developmental big WR out there.

8. In my Ideal draft scenario we get Simmons after a small trade down at the top of 2nd and pocket a future 3rd pick in 2020. Then grab Fergeson at 56. Then with our DT and Edge prospect on board we trun to the offense and grab our TE at 64, say Warring. We have 3 picks in the third and use one to move up in the round and pick up a 5th rounder and grab Isabella and use the other 3rd rounder on Boykins/Baker. Using a 4th or 5th we trade that pick for McCoy. In the 5th we add the OT, and after that I simply don't care.

9. In the end we have the DT of the future in Simmons and McCoy on what might be a one year rental, who solidifies our interior DL and becomes a real inside threat on the rush. Plus an edge rusher with potential who can compete with Rivers for snaps.. We have a TE with a high ceiling and 2 WR's who give us more speed and size. We use what pick is left after the McCoy trade to grab that Scar project.

You can blame Toys for that McCoy trade. It was his idea and now I can't get it out of my head. It's too perfect. Now the Simmonds pick makes more sense, since we have McCoy while he heals.

Re Hardman. He ran a 4.33 forty but didn’t do agility drills unfortunately. It’s not so much that I “really like” him, it’s just that he seems like a good fit. We’ve shown plenty of interest and he’s a returner.

I just see this year as being a predominantly offensive draft for us with the gaping holes on the team and that I think the deficiencies on defense can be fixed via FA.

 

[mrscruff]

The good thing about your preferences in WR and having two honourable mentions in Diontae Johnson and Stanley Morgan Jr is that you have a decent backup plan later in the draft if McClaurin is taken early by another team.

Personally, I would take a bigger specimen of WR (N'Keal Harry, Kelvin Harmon, Hakeem Butler, Deebo samuel etc) in the 2nd or 3rd rounds of the draft and then double dip in the 4th or 5th (acquired through a trade manoeuvre) with guys whose strength is predicated on route-running. And if there is a wild card who gets to the 7th (or UDFA) you think could contribute to the roster , by all means take a flyer and see who pans out.

 

[manxman2601]

The good thing about your preferences in WR and having two honourable mentions in Diontae Johnson and Stanley Morgan Jr is that you have a decent backup plan later in the draft if McClaurin is taken early by another team.

Personally, I would take a bigger specimen of WR (N'Keal Harry, Kelvin Harmon, Hakeem Butler, Deebo samuel etc) in the 2nd or 3rd rounds of the draft and then double dip in the 4th or 5th (acquired through a trade manoeuvre) with guys whose strength is predicated on route-running. And if there is a wild card who gets to the 7th (or UDFA) you think could contribute to the roster , by all means take a flyer and see who pans out.

I was working on the theory that they might have their bigger specimen in DT and Josh Gordon And also that any rookie WR is going to struggle to contribute straight away and that I want them to have ‘rosterability’ ie special teams.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

 

[mrscruff]

I was working on the theory that they might have their bigger specimen in DT and Josh Gordon And also that any rookie WR is going to struggle to contribute straight away and that I want them to have ‘rosterability’ ie special teams.

That makes sense. I just wish I could be more confident that both Josh Gordon and DT will be here after next year.

 

[zimmy]

My two cents: Bill drafts players for specific roles and traits. If you look at the roster, what is currently lacking or can be significantly improved. In no particular order:

1. An OT to backup Wynn and Cannon. Needs to have some athleticism or position versaility ideally to cover a few spots, including G.

2. A 3rd rotational D-lineman to play with Guy and Pennell, potentially with 3rd down rush ability.

3. A versatile receiver who can line up all over the formation.

4. A kick and punt returner

5. A developmental QB who has starter traits.

6. A defensive back with some length and/or physicality to help cover big receivers and TEs. If Chung goes down we really have no one to take this role (assuming Obi is just a special teamer)

7. A TE with potential two way ability. Failing that, someone who can at least stretch the seam - although if this is all he can do then they will wait until the middle rounds.

8. A rotational DE with good run defense traits.

Anyone who they haven't graded at starter level now will likely need to have special teams ability to get drafted.

Of course they won't be able to draft every one, and some of these will be added through free agency.

 

[p8ryts]

I liked Doug Kyed's 6.0 mock out this morning as well as any I've seen. You can see it at NESN.com

 

[captain stone]

View attachment 23210

Where's the Offensive Linemen?

 

[captain stone]

...I just wish I could be more confident that both Josh Gordon and DT will be here after next year.

...or even be here for this season; and for that reason I will still very strongly consider AJ Brown and/or N'Keal Harry at 32.

 

[patchick]

BTW I couldn't find a 40 or 3 cone time for Hardman.

For Hardman, Combine 40: 4.33 Pro day shuttle/cone 4.25/6.75

 

[patfanken]

For Hardman, Combine 40: 4.33 Pro day shuttle/cone 4.25/6.75

So he's very similar to Isabella in all the metric areas. So what I'm interested in now is who do you pick, where and why?????