Opinion: Trey Flowers won't be back next year

[jboston19]

Mike Reiss just posted an article where he places odds of each free agents chances at returning to the Pats. Ghost was 90% while, surprisingly, he had Flowers tied at 70% with the next highest chance to re-sign.

 

[PatsFan2]

Yeah Detroit won’t want to let those 4 sacks he put up last year slip away.

Ansah is a Beast! last year was an injury riddled year.

 

[Ivan]

"Overboard" seems to mean two things
1) more than posters here want the team to pay
2) more than the the patriots can get Flowers to sign for

There are 10 teams with more than $45M of cap room (and some with lots more), even after adjusting for the fact that some teams don't have 51 players under contract. The cap is expected to go up each year, so long-term contracts will look much better in a couple of years. Flowers in one of the top 5 free agents available. Some GM's like to go after the shiny free agents. Surely, someone will be giving him top money.
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As an aside, 4/$60/$35 guaranteed seems a reasonable stab at what the patriots might be willing to pay.

Basically I don’t see the Patriots going up to the 80 million range. I doubt they would go out of the 60’s.

 

[luuked]

Mike Reiss just posted an article where he places odds of each free agents chances at returning to the Pats. Ghost was 90% while, surprisingly, he had Flowers tied at 70% with the next highest chance to re-sign.

I agree with most of Reiss' projections. Am not as surprised as maybe others at the 70% he gave Flowers because -- as I have already pointed out through many posts -- I think Flowers is a jack of all trades and a master of none. Which really limits his value in FA for many teams that are not approaching team building in a similar way as the Patriots.

But as usual when it comes to all things FA, all it takes is just one.

 

[Ivan]

I agree with most of Reiss' projections. Am not as surprised as maybe others at the 70% he gave Flowers because -- as I have already pointed out through many posts -- I think Flowers is a jack of all trades and a master of none. Which really limits his value in FA for many teams that are not approaching team building in a similar way as the Patriots.

But as usual when it comes to all things FA, all it takes is just one.

While there is always a ceiling to where Belichick is willing to go they still have a good track record of keeping the guys he really deems essential. Wilfork, McCourty, Hightower etc etc.

 

[SBLIII]

Basically I don’t see the Patriots going up to the 80 million range. I doubt they would go out of the 60’s.

you mean 4 years right? Because I could see 5/80

 

[SBLIII]

Mike Reiss just posted an article where he places odds of each free agents chances at returning to the Pats. Ghost was 90% while, surprisingly, he had Flowers tied at 70% with the next highest chance to re-sign.

I think that's good news. I'd love to see Flowers on the team next season.

 

[Ivan]

you mean 4 years right? Because I could see 5/80

Yep

Either way it will come down to the guaranteed money.

 

[brdmaverick]

Other FA options include Frank Clark, Brandon Graham, and Ziggy Ansah.

Not saying they are necessarily experts, but the bottom line on the NFL network listed Trey Flowers in the top five of free agents this offseason (not just at his position but overall).

Obviously I've appreciated what he's done but I was somewhat surprised he was regarded so highly by outsiders too.

 

[aluminum seats]

A good rule of thumb for any “name” free agent on the Pats is that they will be gone.

Not too long ago it was Jamie Colllins, Chandler Jones, Malcolm Butler and Donte Hightower...how many will the Pats keep? Turned out to be one, and that was helped by the fact that a bidding war didn’t develop for Hightower.

 

[Soliel]

Flowers is just a system pass rusher anyways

 

[LJRomanoff]

Mike Reiss just posted an article where he places odds of each free agents chances at returning to the Pats. Ghost was 90% while, surprisingly, he had Flowers tied at 70% with the next highest chance to re-sign.

Reiss is a professional and not a jittery anxiety ridden fan (not pointing fingers - you know who you are).

 

[LJRomanoff]

A good rule of thumb for any “name” free agent on the Pats is that they will be gone.

Not too long ago it was Jamie Colllins, Chandler Jones, Malcolm Butler and Donte Hightower...how many will the Pats keep? Turned out to be one, and that was helped by the fact that a bidding war didn’t develop for Hightower.

Not a great example as only one of those four was actually signed away as a free agent and at the time he was riding the bench.

 

[SBLIII]

A good rule of thumb for any “name” free agent on the Pats is that they will be gone.

Not too long ago it was Jamie Colllins, Chandler Jones, Malcolm Butler and Donte Hightower...how many will the Pats keep? Turned out to be one, and that was helped by the fact that a bidding war didn’t develop for Hightower.

the counter argument would be that Collins was not doing what he should have been doing, Butler was pretty average and the Titans offer was just dumb and Chandler Jones was traded not not re-signed.

 

[Patstastic]

You absolutely cannot let Flowers walk. Your Defense becomes much weaker. He is a must sign.

 

[Patstastic]

Other FA options include Frank Clark, Brandon Graham, and Ziggy Ansah.

Him and Brady being teammates would be quite interesting. Wonder how many times the "play" would come up.

 

[Ivan]

Not a great example as only one of those four was actually signed away as a free agent and at the time he was riding the bench.

Yep, and he ignored all of the really good players they re-signed.

 

[aluminum seats]

the counter argument would be that Collins was not doing what he should have been doing, Butler was pretty average and the Titans offer was just dumb and Chandler Jones was traded not not re-signed.

Yep. No judgment on the decisions, just saying they left.

Not a great example as only one of those four was actually signed away as a free agent and at the time he was riding the bench.

The "riding the bench" part is kind of funny considering the circumstances, but fair point in that lots of times the Pats will move before guys walk when they can get something via trade, so there's a smaller number of guys who make it all the way to free agency then cash in on a huge payday and leave.

 

[goheels22002]

With only around $15 mil cap space, the Pats don’t have much room, but with a few retirements to open things up, there might be a chance of a team-friendly extension. At the end of the day, it all boils down to what BB thinks of him.

Gronk's decision is important as far as the cap situation goes. As far as FAs go, my top priorities are OT Trent Brown, DE Flowers, DT Malcolm Brown, and the kicking unit (both Gostkowski and Ryan are FAs.) I'd like to see them sign Cordarelle Patterson since he is so versatile on the pass/run/special teams. But they cannot mess around with left tackle.

The Patriots were unbelievably good in protecting Brady in 2019, particularly in the playoffs. Keeping that offensive line intact with Scarnecchia is the #1 most important thing going into 2019. That line not only pass protected well, they were superb at run blocking. There was a lot of talk on this board about Nate Solder going to the Giants last summer. Trent Brown in 2018 was better than Nate in 2017. They have to sign him or tag him IMHO.

Trey Flowers is next up, but he will command a good deal, similar to what Jabal Sheard did with the Colts.

 

[zimmy]

The Pats have paid out top of the market deals to players who they feel are worth it. Mankins, Wilfork, Gilmore, McCourty were all paid as top 5 at their position (and a couple were made the highest at their respective positions). Aside from Gilmore who was a free agent, the key was that a) the Pats knew the type of player they were getting from a character and work ethic standpoint, and b) the players was playing at a top 5 level at the time.

Flowers clearly fits a). The other is more challenging as Flowers really isn't a true defensive end. He's a hybrid players who plays all over the front. It's difficult to put a price on that. I still think they pony up $15m a year for him, but then when a player hits free agency you can't control anything. They wanted Solder back last year, offered a good deal but stood firm on their value and were blown out of the water by the Giants. That can happen to Flowers.

In the end this feels like a McCourty situation to me where Flowers wants to be here and we want him. In the end, I think we get close enough to bring him back but it will go to the wire.