The more I have looked into this game the more confident I feel. Right now I think the Patriots win about 75% of the time. Maybe a hair more. Why so high when the Rams are no push overs?
Reason #1 The Patriots should score. A lot. I want you to keep a number in mind. 34. That to me is a key number. When you have two teams in the super bowl almost always at least one and usually both have a decent D. We have never had a team lose a super bowl when scoring more than 33 points (That is the number the Patriots scored last year. The most all time for a loser). The reason is when you score that much usually you don't give your opponent time to score many points, and generally there is a semblance of defense played by both teams or at least the winning team. If the Patriots hit 34 or higher they should win flat out (unless both Ds forget how to play for all 60 minutes). Frankly I see a lot of scenarios where the Pats can do just that.
This team has been clicking on offense. Even against KC they only had 3 bad drives. They went TD, pick in end zone, punt, TD, punt, FG, Downs, Pick, TD, TD, Kneel, TD.
If the Pats play it just a little smarter it looks like this. TD, FG, punt, TD, punt, FG, FG, pick, TD, TD, TD. They have been nearly unstoppable the last 3 games when avoiding stupid mistakes and should continue to be just about. They made a bunch against KC. They shouldn't this game. Unless the Rams DL flat out wins, or the Pats screw up they probably won't be able to keep the Pats from hitting near, at, or over 34. On the other hand if the Rams make a single big mistake there's no way they keep us under in most cases. As for the question of if they have the defense to slow us down without us giving them help, they don't. Seattle barely did and they needed us to make a red zone pick to keep it under 30. Atlanta benefited by 2 turnovers that happened in FG range to keep us out of the 30s in regulation.
This isn't Denver, Baltimore or the 2017 Jags D. Anyone saying otherwise is lying to you or themselves. That's how good the Rams will need to be to keep this offense in check and they just aren't. As for the Rams, they come into this game needing to play an almost entirely clean game on offense and STs just to keep us from closing the door on them. We might anyway without their help.
Reason #2 The Pats defense and Rams offense are due. I know this isn't an argument based in logic or reality. I know each game is it's own entity. But I do believe in the law of averages. So far the Rams and Pats have played 2 games. The Pats have created only 1 turnover and they didn't earn it really (It was a desperate Rivers pick late in a blow out). The Rams have committed only 1 turnover and didn't deserve it. (The easy catch off Gurley's hands). Goff hasn't made any mistakes this run. Their team has had no fumbles. Besides the Gurley tip they have played a clean 120 minutes of playoff football. The Patriots have gone 120 minutes without recovering a fumble or getting a true turnover that was really deserved. This could continue another 60 minutes of course. It is as likely as not. But I don't buy it. Goff is due to toss up a stupid pass. He will be strip sacked. Something should happen. As for the Patriots. They made a bunch of mistakes last game. They could commit a bunch more but I think they have gotten it out of their system. It is fresh in their minds. Overall the Pats are poised to win the turnover battle or at least not lose it. This is something I think the Rams need to win. To beat us. The law of averages says they don't.
Reason #3 The Pats defense is actually pretty good and the Rams offense isn't great right now (most likely). The path for the Rams to win, assuming this Pats offense isn't stopped by the Rams D (which they shouldn't), is to simply out score the Patriots. That isn't likely to happen. The Rams just aren't good enough to do that to our D I think. This defense isn't last years SB defense. The Pats are literally better at all 3 levels. Particularly the LBs and CBs.
This Ram offense isn't led by a red hot Foles who had an offense that could literally attack us any way they wanted. People seem to be concerned that could happen again. Very unlikely. That Eagles team really had it all on offense. We just assumed Foles couldn't deliver for another 60 minutes. This Rams offense while good is a bit more limited. For one thing they lack a top tier TE. For another we aren't sure how effective Gurley will be as a pass catcher. The Eagles had both of those things going into that game and they were huge. People forget their RB was their leading WR that game. If they don't have the threat to make that happen too they have no shot. People are talking about yards on the ground for the RBs. Yards in the air is what they need and A LOT. If the Rams don't get at least 60 yards in the air from their RBs they may as well call it a game right now, unless the Pats offense is somehow held in check. We aren't sure yet after last game if Gurley can even be a factor. If not, I don't think they have much of a chance.
