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Here are my thoughts as of now without looking too deeply into it.
The Rams rush D vs Pats rushing O - The Rams had one of the worst rush Ds in the regular season but have really tightened up in the playoffs. They stone walled the Cowboys and Saints which are two good running teams. I wrote it off when they did it to the Cowboys, but now that they did it to the Saints (While also having to worry about Drew Brees) it seems we can't count on running them over. This will clearly be the toughest rush D we have faced in the playoffs by far.
Rams pass D vs Pats pass O - Since getting Talib back their pass D has taken a step up. He isn't as good as he use to be but a solid CB none the less. He is their best CB. Peters is their #2 who has regressed badly and is a talented gambler who gets burned too often. Their #3 is debatable. I think they have an okay to good Pass D but match up badly against us. They have no one who can hope to keep with Edeman as Talib/Peters are clearly outside guys who like to play physically against bigger/slower WRs/TEs. Their best LB is Littleton who made the probowl but I think he is overrated and can't cover RBs. So the question is can their pass rush get to Brady? The way our line is playing I doubt it. Even with Donald and his supporting cast of Fowler Jr. and Suh I don't see it happening often as long as Brady continues to get the ball out in an average of 2.2 seconds.
Rams rush O vs Pats Rush D - The Pats have done well stopping the run and will probably continue to do so. After an incredible showing vs the Cowboys the Rams run O came back down to earth. They were mostly stopped by the Saints. The question is how healthy will Gurley be in 2 weeks? The Rams have a very good OL (according to PFF their center has sucked though). This will be an interesting match cause you need to wonder how much the Patriots plan to commit to stopping the run. They can if they really want to, but is that what they want to focus on? I think they keep to the 4-2-5 mostly and give up a little here.
Rams pass O vs Pats Pass D - The Rams passing offense is built around the WRs which bodes well for us. They have a great pair in Cooks/Woods but don't sleep on Reynolds. As many have said, they haven't been the same since loosing Kupp. Gurley has been a threat too but has looked worn down. Besides him they have no other TEs or RBs who are much of a threat to catch the ball. Goff has looked out of sorts without Kupp and that should continue. I really like this match up for our defense as we've done well vs WRs and there is no other way the Rams can consistently pass down the field. It will be interesting to see if the Pats can get pressure on Goff. They have done well recently getting in the QB's face but this will be a pretty tough OL to do it against.
Overall my thought is this. If Gurley looks like he did vs the Saints then we will almost definitely win. Without him their offense becomes predictable and plays to our strength (Asking our CBs to limit WRs).
Our OL will probably do what it has all year and protect Brady well enough so he can do his magic. Edelman is playing like a complete beast and they have no answer that I know of. They don't have a guy who can cover White and putting Talib on Gronk would work well in their favor but it would be putting their best pass defender on arguably our 3rd most dangerous weapon. I don't see how that will solve anything for them. As far as our run game I could see the Rams finally causing it to stall, but the instant they try to play the pass it will come alive again. The Patriots now demand a 7 man box most of the time or you will get gashed no matter how good your front 6 is. It's true their defense slowed down the Saints but part of that was bad play calls and the Saints not going back to what was working for them (which is odd for a well coached team.) The Pats won't make the same mistake. It has been hard to hold the Pats to under 30 in the playoffs during this run. The Rams IMO don't have the D to do it.
If Gurley is healthy in 2 weeks then its game on and suddenly our D will need to make some tough choices. Maybe now they can throw us enough off balance to drop 30 plus on us. We've had issues with good pass catching RBs for a while now and that won't change in two weeks. If he is good to go this becomes a much closer and more unpredictable contest.
The Rams rush D vs Pats rushing O - The Rams had one of the worst rush Ds in the regular season but have really tightened up in the playoffs. They stone walled the Cowboys and Saints which are two good running teams. I wrote it off when they did it to the Cowboys, but now that they did it to the Saints (While also having to worry about Drew Brees) it seems we can't count on running them over. This will clearly be the toughest rush D we have faced in the playoffs by far.
Rams pass D vs Pats pass O - Since getting Talib back their pass D has taken a step up. He isn't as good as he use to be but a solid CB none the less. He is their best CB. Peters is their #2 who has regressed badly and is a talented gambler who gets burned too often. Their #3 is debatable. I think they have an okay to good Pass D but match up badly against us. They have no one who can hope to keep with Edeman as Talib/Peters are clearly outside guys who like to play physically against bigger/slower WRs/TEs. Their best LB is Littleton who made the probowl but I think he is overrated and can't cover RBs. So the question is can their pass rush get to Brady? The way our line is playing I doubt it. Even with Donald and his supporting cast of Fowler Jr. and Suh I don't see it happening often as long as Brady continues to get the ball out in an average of 2.2 seconds.
Rams rush O vs Pats Rush D - The Pats have done well stopping the run and will probably continue to do so. After an incredible showing vs the Cowboys the Rams run O came back down to earth. They were mostly stopped by the Saints. The question is how healthy will Gurley be in 2 weeks? The Rams have a very good OL (according to PFF their center has sucked though). This will be an interesting match cause you need to wonder how much the Patriots plan to commit to stopping the run. They can if they really want to, but is that what they want to focus on? I think they keep to the 4-2-5 mostly and give up a little here.
Rams pass O vs Pats Pass D - The Rams passing offense is built around the WRs which bodes well for us. They have a great pair in Cooks/Woods but don't sleep on Reynolds. As many have said, they haven't been the same since loosing Kupp. Gurley has been a threat too but has looked worn down. Besides him they have no other TEs or RBs who are much of a threat to catch the ball. Goff has looked out of sorts without Kupp and that should continue. I really like this match up for our defense as we've done well vs WRs and there is no other way the Rams can consistently pass down the field. It will be interesting to see if the Pats can get pressure on Goff. They have done well recently getting in the QB's face but this will be a pretty tough OL to do it against.
Overall my thought is this. If Gurley looks like he did vs the Saints then we will almost definitely win. Without him their offense becomes predictable and plays to our strength (Asking our CBs to limit WRs).
Our OL will probably do what it has all year and protect Brady well enough so he can do his magic. Edelman is playing like a complete beast and they have no answer that I know of. They don't have a guy who can cover White and putting Talib on Gronk would work well in their favor but it would be putting their best pass defender on arguably our 3rd most dangerous weapon. I don't see how that will solve anything for them. As far as our run game I could see the Rams finally causing it to stall, but the instant they try to play the pass it will come alive again. The Patriots now demand a 7 man box most of the time or you will get gashed no matter how good your front 6 is. It's true their defense slowed down the Saints but part of that was bad play calls and the Saints not going back to what was working for them (which is odd for a well coached team.) The Pats won't make the same mistake. It has been hard to hold the Pats to under 30 in the playoffs during this run. The Rams IMO don't have the D to do it.
If Gurley is healthy in 2 weeks then its game on and suddenly our D will need to make some tough choices. Maybe now they can throw us enough off balance to drop 30 plus on us. We've had issues with good pass catching RBs for a while now and that won't change in two weeks. If he is good to go this becomes a much closer and more unpredictable contest.
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