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Patriots Pregame Thread AFC Divisional: We're on to the Chargers (Beat LA!)

Pregame Discussion ahead of the LIVE game day discussion thread. The actual Game Thread will Open an hour ahead of kickoff.
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I think if the run game gets stifled Sony will be getting an early hook in favor of White and Burkhead. Would really like to see Sony develop that part of his game but that's best left for the off-season.

I don't entirely disagree. I feel like Sony is our best pure RB and it would be nice if he also be a receiver...but, if he is not ready, he is not ready and we are better off seeing Burkhead back there.
 
FYI: From what I can find, Mark Henderson would be 59 and he's still alive.. I can't find anything on him having passed.
 
I wanted SD more than any team. Why? One reason: they play more zone coverage than anyone in the league.
 
So we have film from playing them last year. This is good.
Not sure if you’re being sarcastic or not. Either way, you think the NE staff/players won’t look at that?
 
When was the last time we played in a snow playoff game? 2004 Colts game? It's been forecasted multiple times over the past decade, but it never actually happens. I'll believe it'll snow when it's in the forecast on Friday. Forecast even 3 days ahead of time usually aren't that accurate.
 
I wanted SD more than any team. Why? One reason: they play more zone coverage than anyone in the league.
Apparently the same gameplan they used against BAL with 7 DBS won’t work against us
 
Conventional wisdom says yes, but I’ve seen plenty of bigger upsets than what Eagles over Saints would be.
Eagles will beat the Cowboys on the way back to the Super Bowl.
 

And that’s why this is such a tough match-up. The Chargers can generate pressure with their front four. If they’re able to do that on Sunday while fielding 6 DBs, I’m not sure where the production is going to come from through the air unless Gronk has a renaissance.
 
And that’s why this is such a tough match-up. The Chargers can generate pressure with their front four. If they’re able to do that on Sunday while fielding 6 DBs, I’m not sure where the production is going to come from through the air unless Gronk has a renaissance.
The “forcasted weather” may be the great equalizer.
 
My thoughts on this game. It could go either way depending on health factors. Overall I like the Patriots though. Here is why.

Chargers WRs vs Pats DBs - I like the Patriots here. While the Chargers offense isn't JUST the WRs right now they are the main focus. Allen is a good option but he isn't the type of guy Gillmore can't cover 1v1 (like Hill would be). Gillmore has been solid all year besides 1 game and I think that continues. As for the 2 Williams I think McCourty and Jackson (who has really come on well) will do a good job. The Pats have the best trio of CBs in the playoffs right now IMO. If you limit their WRs the Chargers don't have the guys to move consistently on offense right now.

Chargers TEs vs Pats DBs/LB - Usually this will be about Chung vs Gates. You can't complete stop Gates as he is just to sly but Gates can't beat you anymore. I don't care about Hunter Henry to be honest. Also Green can't pass block well and he is a non factor as a pass catcher pretty much. The Pats will be fine here.

Chargers RBs vs Pats LBs - This is a tough match up. The Pats shouldn't be able to keep up. As has been pointed out the Chargers don't have RBs run routes really. Just catch it behind the line and make plays on a slower LB and they have been effective doing this. This is a battle you just need to try not to lose too bad and have guys stay home. Luckily Gordon looks a little gimped but they still have Ekeler. Sadly the Patriots need to just so the bst they can here and focus on everything else.

Chargers RBs vs Pats D - I think the Patriots get a bad rap in the running game. They have a 4-2-5 defense and usually dare teams to run on them. They have done well in run D considering. Personally I'm happy to give it up if they want to run as long as the Pats don't allow big run plays. They have been okay at that overall.

Chagers OL vs Pats DL - This is a match the Pats need to exploit if they want to win. It is the most reliable way to really slow down their offense. If they can't get some pressure then doing everything else is pretty useless most likely.

Patriots OL vs Chargers DL - This is the single most important battle for the Pats on offense. It is where the game will be decided in the end. If the Patriots can successfully slow down the talented pass rush of the Chargers they will fine ways to be successful. The Chargers are simply too talented on other spots of the D to let their pass rush get there and believe that we can win. Personally I like the Patriots in this match up. They have been good at pass blocking most of the year. As far as running lanes they should continue to run if it works. If not then get away from it.

Patriots RBs vs Chargers LBs - This is where the Patriots offense will get a lot of work done. The I expect our RBs to have as many receiving yards as our WRs. Lots of White and Burkhead will do a lot to slow down the pass rush too.

Patriots WRs/TEs vs Chargers DBs/LBs - I'm putting this all together. Personally I don't love any of these match ups too much unless Gronk looks a lot healthier. Edelman has come on strong and I think he will get his but I don't trust anyone else to get more than a few catches. Patterson may be the best option to be honest. Lots of end arounds and just using his athletic ability on their 4th DB to maybe get separation. If Gronk looks good (unlikely but maybe the bye week helps) that changes everything.
 
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Impossible not to have a grin on my face, a very winnable game. River has never defeated Brady, his last 3-4 games were not good. I like our chances.
 
This is not necessarily the game we wanted, but Chargers it is. I am hoping back-to-back weeks of travel to the east coast and cold weather (low 30s/high 20s) will help us. The Chargers are now 9-1 on the road, with their only loss being against the Rams, which really doesn't count as a road game. They are road warriors for sure. With that said, bring on Rivers!

Link to the Chargers forum: General Discussions - The Official Los Angeles Chargers Forum

It's the game I wanted. I did not want to face the Ravens. Rivers hasn't beat Brady in 7 games I think. Pats are at home. All good for me.

Go Pats
 
The “forcasted weather” may be the great equalizer.
Yep. I view this game as a toss up really. The Chargers have the talent advantage as a whole and the Patriots have the advantage at QB and HC. In such instances, I’ll go with the home squad.
 
Their biggest weakness is their head coach who played not to lose against the Ravens. It was embarrassing to give up two passing touchdowns to Lamar Jackson in the 4th quarter because they stopped playing defense and ran the ball on offense to kill the clock as compared to letting their elite QB pass for first downs and maintain possession.

Their second biggest weakness is their secondary which sucked against the worst passing attack in the NFL when it mattered most. Their third biggest weakness was their offensive line - the Ravens spent all afternoon in their backfield.

The Chargers obviously don't understand what it takes to win in the playoffs. Patriots 34, Chargers 14.

Maybe the Chargers suck, or, they were just nervous because Ray Lewis killed a guy.

Hard to put that garbage time stuff on the secondary, they went prevent for most of the 4th quarter.

I don't see us in the backfield as much as Baltimore, those cats completely sold out on the blitz, I haven't seen the official numbers but they had to have blitzed well over 75% of the plays.

Our STs will have some big plays in this game and maybe the difference in the game. They gave up a punt and FG block yesterday, which is something the Pats have been excellent at this season.

I see the Pats mostly sticking with their normal style of play on Defense with a few well timed A gap blitzes on mid-range 3rd downs and the ameoba front on 3rd and long.

I think we will see a lot more stout fronts or heavy package on Defense to stop Gordon. We absolutely cannot allow them to ground and pound. I see a lot of man, the secondary will be asked to do this without a lot of nickel and dime packages i.e. a lot more 4-3 and a lot less 4-2-5. And the Pats play a lot of hybrid 4-3 with Chung playing OLB with Harmon as the traditional Star/SS, I don't see that happening much in the 1st half as they will focus on stopping the run.

It will be a steady diet of High, KVN and Roberts early. Which can be scary having one of those guys covering a wheel route, which is part of what makes stopping Gordon tough. The guy can kill you on the ground and in the air (50 receptions). That is where the Pats will be vulnerable on D in the heavy.

Offensively they should be able to run the ball, the Chargers sold out on the run yesterday after getting sliced up by the run game a few weeks ago by Baltimore and were not going to let that happen again. But there was almost a zero threat from the passing game. Will they be able to play and stop a balanced offense? This seasons history says no.

LAC have played five games against top 10 scoring offenses this season and have allowed 29.6 ppg in those games. Those offenses averaged 31.4 ppg for the season, so they slowed them down to the tune of 1.8ppg.

**** sorry for the long reply.
 
My high level Pats/Chargers analysis:

The Chargers are a good team, but are exactly what the numbers say they are: moderately better than the Patriots.

The Patriots are a good team, but are better than what the numbers say they are. They possess a vast dormant hidden power that has been building up on both sides of the ball since midseason, fueled by the team's relatively good health and positional consistency on both sides of the ball, which has allowed the coaching staff to tap into the full potential of a seemingly limited talent pool. The resulting awesomeness will transform the 11-5 Patriots into the SUPER PATRIOTS.

Plus you know, home field, snow and cold, and the 10:00am west coast start time: Pat's 42 to 7.
 
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