JC Jackson has the best passer rating allowed in the NFL

[1960Pats]

It's my theory that the Draft is a LOT more random than most people give it credit for and market efficiency only emphasizes this effect though UDFA are obviously going to be less known than the obvious stars.

No Team Can Beat the Draft

As an obligatory "in case you're interested":

From 2011 to 2018 the Patriots drafted at the 30th spot in each round on average (due to strength of record).

Same period the Steelers drafted at spot #23.

I have no doubt that drafting 7 spots ahead in each round for 7 years in a row ends up being a huge drafting advantage.

I have a totally different view on the difference between drafting at 23 vs 30. Imho it's only a difference of one player. Once the team picks at 23 the rest of the draft for those two teams looks like this:
30-55-62-87-94-119-126-151-158-183-190-215-222
If we look at it that way it's really only an advantage for that first round but thereafter the second team is picking all the other players 25 spots ahead plus one more at the end.

Now I'm not saying that the extra player in the beginning isn't an advantage, it surely is. Just as the loss of our first pick twice has handicapped the Pats. But it isn't an every round type of advantage once that teams picks at 23.

Then when you throw in the fact that it's all a crap shoot anyway the advantage seems to be even less.

 

[SEA_Pat]

His ability to play the ball is remarkable. The other thing that’s remarkable is our ability to draft UDFA corners

It's the bizarro quantum entanglement reversal of our ability to draft WRs.

 

[ivanvamp]

Another way to look at it is using the draft points that teams use when considering trades. Look at this chart from 2018 (2018 NFL Draft Trade Value Chart).

Let's pretend that supplemental picks don't count, and we're just going with these numbers based on 32 selections per round.

A team drafting first in each round is looking at the following values:

3000, 580, 265, 96, 36.5, 21, and 3.4 for a total of 4001.9

Now let's look at a team drafting, say, 16th - middle of each round:

1000, 420, 190, 62, 29.8, 15, and 1 for a total of 1717.8

Now let's look at where the Pats typically draft. If you look at every team's average draft position in the BB/TB era, the Patriots are easily going to be slotted 32nd, because they easily have the best record, year in and year out (though obviously not EVERY SINGLE year, but on average). So let's look at the value points for the 32nd team:

590, 270, 116, 40, 23.4, 8.6, and 1 for a total of 1049.

So the team drafting first has 2,952.9 more draft points to work with. A team drafting middle of the pack has 668.8 more points to work with than the Pats do. To give you a sense of how much that is, consider that 2,952.9 points is basically the value of the #1 overall pick. Or it's worth FOUR second round picks: the first, the second, the third, and the 32nd second round pick.

So if you're drafting first instead of last, the combined extra value you get is equivalent to another #1 pick, OR it's equivalent to adding the #33, #34, #35, and #64 picks to that team picking first. THAT is how much of a deficit the Patriots have been in when it comes to the draft. Imagine giving BB the #1 draft pick every year, or those four second rounders.

But what about the Pats vs. a middle-of-the-pack draft team? Well that middle of the pack team has 668.8 more points to work with than the Pats do. That 669 (we'll call it) is worth the #28 pick in the draft. OR it's worth the last two picks of the second round PLUS the 30th pick of the third round.

Just for ONE draft, this is an enormous draft disadvantage for the Patriots. But when you add this up over *18 seasons*, the Patriots have been drafting at a colossal, massive, gargantuan disadvantage. When people complain that the Pats don't draft well, understand just how big of a drafting disadvantage it is. It's absolutely ENORMOUS, year in and year out.

Now we'll happily live with that because the only way you get to be, over 18 years, in the 32nd position in the draft is by having incredible success. And that's what we've enjoyed. So yeah, we'll happily accept that crummy draft position in exchange for the unparalleled success this franchise has had. But make no mistake - there's a HUGE price to pay for this success. The league is built to take teams like the Patriots down, and the draft is one huge way to do it.

So when we talk about the Pats' relative draft success or failure, understand that BB routinely operates from a massive massive massive draft disadvantage. That HAS to be factored into the equation.

 

[Soliel]

I’ve been thinking about the last draft. Can’t call it a miss with Sony Michel. Jackson is great this year but you can’t count him as a draftee really. I’ve been hoping we could find a few good players.

 

[maineman209]

Another way to look at it is using the draft points that teams use when considering trades. Look at this chart from 2018 (2018 NFL Draft Trade Value Chart).

Let's pretend that supplemental picks don't count, and we're just going with these numbers based on 32 selections per round.

A team drafting first in each round is looking at the following values:

3000, 580, 265, 96, 36.5, 21, and 3.4 for a total of 4001.9

Now let's look at a team drafting, say, 16th - middle of each round:

1000, 420, 190, 62, 29.8, 15, and 1 for a total of 1717.8

Now let's look at where the Pats typically draft. If you look at every team's average draft position in the BB/TB era, the Patriots are easily going to be slotted 32nd, because they easily have the best record, year in and year out (though obviously not EVERY SINGLE year, but on average). So let's look at the value points for the 32nd team:

590, 270, 116, 40, 23.4, 8.6, and 1 for a total of 1049.

So the team drafting first has 2,952.9 more draft points to work with. A team drafting middle of the pack has 668.8 more points to work with than the Pats do. To give you a sense of how much that is, consider that 2,952.9 points is basically the value of the #1 overall pick. Or it's worth FOUR second round picks: the first, the second, the third, and the 32nd second round pick.

So if you're drafting first instead of last, the combined extra value you get is equivalent to another #1 pick, OR it's equivalent to adding the #33, #34, #35, and #64 picks to that team picking first. THAT is how much of a deficit the Patriots have been in when it comes to the draft. Imagine giving BB the #1 draft pick every year, or those four second rounders.

But what about the Pats vs. a middle-of-the-pack draft team? Well that middle of the pack team has 668.8 more points to work with than the Pats do. That 669 (we'll call it) is worth the #28 pick in the draft. OR it's worth the last two picks of the second round PLUS the 30th pick of the third round.

Just for ONE draft, this is an enormous draft disadvantage for the Patriots. But when you add this up over *18 seasons*, the Patriots have been drafting at a colossal, massive, gargantuan disadvantage. When people complain that the Pats don't draft well, understand just how big of a drafting disadvantage it is. It's absolutely ENORMOUS, year in and year out.

Now we'll happily live with that because the only way you get to be, over 18 years, in the 32nd position in the draft is by having incredible success. And that's what we've enjoyed. So yeah, we'll happily accept that crummy draft position in exchange for the unparalleled success this franchise has had. But make no mistake - there's a HUGE price to pay for this success. The league is built to take teams like the Patriots down, and the draft is one huge way to do it.

So when we talk about the Pats' relative draft success or failure, understand that BB routinely operates from a massive massive massive draft disadvantage. That HAS to be factored into the equation.

Another way of looking at it is that a team that wins the SB, and has only it's own original seven picks is drafting in the 32nd spot in each round. The total trade value of those picks is 1,064 points. It's even less after comp picks are awarded and factored in.

The #14 overall pick is worth 1,100 points, and the #15 overall is worth 1,050 points.

IOW, the SB winner can trade its entire draft and still only move up to the middle of the 1st round ... unless the team that's taking all those pick decides to give the team that's trading them a "quantity discount" - which does happen some of the time in actual practice.

 

[maineman209]

Jackson is great this year but you can’t count him as a draftee really.

Sure you can. He was still a prospect signed directly out of college on draft weekend (and could NOT have been signed before then).

If the Pats had possessed another 7th round pick, they might have used it on Jackson. There really isn't any practical difference between a 7th-rounder and a UDFA.

 

[Soliel]

Sure you can. He was still a prospect signed directly out of college on draft weekend (and could NOT have been signed before then).

If the Pats had possessed another 7th round pick, they might have used it on Jackson. There really isn't any practical difference between a 7th-rounder and a UDFA.

Ok, good. I wondered about that. You can’t say it was a bad draft with this guy and Wynn and Michel. Haven’t seen Wynn yet but even though. The draft was pretty good

 

[RobertWeathers]

I’ve been thinking about the last draft. Can’t call it a miss with Sony Michel. Jackson is great this year but you can’t count him as a draftee really. I’ve been hoping we could find a few good players.

Rule of thumb for every successful draft: 2 Starters. 2 role players.

2019 is required to see how good this draft really was. If Wynn and Bentley start and Sony and JC play better it'll be a freaking home run.

Starters:
Sony
JC
Bentley

Role Players:
Crossen ST

 

[maineman209]

Rule of thumb for every successful draft: 2 Starters. 2 role players.

2019 is required to see how good this draft really was. If Wynn and Bentley start and Sony and JC play better it'll be a freaking home run.

Starters:
Sony
JC
Bentley

Role Players:
Crossen ST

We don't even know yet that Izzo won't be able to replace Dwayne Allen, or if Dawson could develop into a good Safety.

 

[RobertWeathers]

We don't even know yet that Izzo won't be able to replace Dwayne Allen, or if Dawson could develop into a good Safety.

Sure. We can see if 2019 bears the fruit.

 

[Uptown]

Bill Belichick Praises Rookie J.C. Jackson As A ‘Steady Grinder’

 

[maineman209]

Sure. We can see if 2019 bears the fruit.

Well, you and I can. Others seem to have already made their final judgments.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Well, you and I can. Others seem to have already made their final judgments.

...and based on their public posts have led us to pass judgement on their knowledge of football.

 

[stinkypete]

Rule of thumb for every successful draft: 2 Starters. 2 role players.

2019 is required to see how good this draft really was. If Wynn and Bentley start and Sony and JC play better it'll be a freaking home run.

Starters:
Sony
JC
Bentley

Role Players:
Crossen ST

Have we given up on Duke Dawson already?

Regardless, a draft haul of Michel, Jackson, Bentley and (hopefully) Wynn is a solid haul.

 

[Uptown]

Patriots' Jackson plays his way into position

 

[RobertWeathers]

Have we given up on Duke Dawson already?

Regardless, a draft haul of Michel, Jackson, Bentley and (hopefully) Wynn is a solid haul.

I'm not.

Just didn't include him in players that are sure-fire contributors in 2019.

 

[Mack Herron]

 

[Wheelman]

If the Pats had possessed another 7th round pick, they might have used it on Jackson. There really isn't any practical difference between a 7th-rounder and a UDFA.

4 year contract vs 3 year + RFA. Depending on how well a player plays, it could make some difference.

 

[maineman209]

4 year contract vs 3 year + RFA. Depending on how well a player plays, it could make some difference.

Could, yeah. IIRC - with his signing bonus, Langi had pretty much the same AAV as a 7th-rounder. With a 2nd-round RFA tender after three years, he could have ended up making more over the 4years than a 7th-rounder. I guess Butler actually did that.

 

[Danger Zone]

Another way to look at it is using the draft points that teams use when considering trades. Look at this chart from 2018 (2018 NFL Draft Trade Value Chart).

Let's pretend that supplemental picks don't count, and we're just going with these numbers based on 32 selections per round.

A team drafting first in each round is looking at the following values:

3000, 580, 265, 96, 36.5, 21, and 3.4 for a total of 4001.9

Now let's look at a team drafting, say, 16th - middle of each round:

1000, 420, 190, 62, 29.8, 15, and 1 for a total of 1717.8

Now let's look at where the Pats typically draft. If you look at every team's average draft position in the BB/TB era, the Patriots are easily going to be slotted 32nd, because they easily have the best record, year in and year out (though obviously not EVERY SINGLE year, but on average). So let's look at the value points for the 32nd team:

590, 270, 116, 40, 23.4, 8.6, and 1 for a total of 1049.

So the team drafting first has 2,952.9 more draft points to work with. A team drafting middle of the pack has 668.8 more points to work with than the Pats do. To give you a sense of how much that is, consider that 2,952.9 points is basically the value of the #1 overall pick. Or it's worth FOUR second round picks: the first, the second, the third, and the 32nd second round pick.

So if you're drafting first instead of last, the combined extra value you get is equivalent to another #1 pick, OR it's equivalent to adding the #33, #34, #35, and #64 picks to that team picking first. THAT is how much of a deficit the Patriots have been in when it comes to the draft. Imagine giving BB the #1 draft pick every year, or those four second rounders.

But what about the Pats vs. a middle-of-the-pack draft team? Well that middle of the pack team has 668.8 more points to work with than the Pats do. That 669 (we'll call it) is worth the #28 pick in the draft. OR it's worth the last two picks of the second round PLUS the 30th pick of the third round.

Just for ONE draft, this is an enormous draft disadvantage for the Patriots. But when you add this up over *18 seasons*, the Patriots have been drafting at a colossal, massive, gargantuan disadvantage. When people complain that the Pats don't draft well, understand just how big of a drafting disadvantage it is. It's absolutely ENORMOUS, year in and year out.

Now we'll happily live with that because the only way you get to be, over 18 years, in the 32nd position in the draft is by having incredible success. And that's what we've enjoyed. So yeah, we'll happily accept that crummy draft position in exchange for the unparalleled success this franchise has had. But make no mistake - there's a HUGE price to pay for this success. The league is built to take teams like the Patriots down, and the draft is one huge way to do it.

So when we talk about the Pats' relative draft success or failure, understand that BB routinely operates from a massive massive massive draft disadvantage. That HAS to be factored into the equation.

This guy gets it