JC Jackson has the best passer rating allowed in the NFL

[ivanvamp]

Rule of thumb for every successful draft: 2 Starters. 2 role players.

2019 is required to see how good this draft really was. If Wynn and Bentley start and Sony and JC play better it'll be a freaking home run.

Starters:
Sony
JC
Bentley

Role Players:
Crossen ST

I think the 2018 draft could very well go down as one of BB's most successful drafts (and I'll add Jackson in there even though he was a UDFA). Here's how I predict it will shake out:

Michel: pro-bowl level RB for 4-5 years (even if he doesn't "make" the pro bowl)
Wynn: starter on the OL for years
Jackson: pro-bowl level CB for a long time
Bentley: starter at LB
Crossen: will end up on ST and playing as a sub in the secondary, getting spot starts as the current safeties retire
Dawson: will end up being a sub in the secondary, getting some starts as JMac ages or there are injuries
Sam: nothing
Berrios: maybe in 2019 steps in as the primary slot receiver
Etling: nothing
Izzo: maybe becomes a backup TE

So I see at least 4 starters, 2 pro-bowl caliber players, and no less than 7 contributors from this draft class alone. That would be a grand slam in every way imaginable.

Naturally, I could be wrong on most or all of this, but that's how I see it going.

 

[Flash]

Why he doesn't use his first name Jerald????

 

[RobertWeathers]

Why he doesn't use his first name Jerald????

My grandfather's name was Jerald. It's a good name!

 

[1960Pats]

Another way to look at it is using the draft points that teams use when considering trades. Look at this chart from 2018 (2018 NFL Draft Trade Value Chart).

Let's pretend that supplemental picks don't count, and we're just going with these numbers based on 32 selections per round.

A team drafting first in each round is looking at the following values:

3000, 580, 265, 96, 36.5, 21, and 3.4 for a total of 4001.9

Now let's look at a team drafting, say, 16th - middle of each round:

1000, 420, 190, 62, 29.8, 15, and 1 for a total of 1717.8

Now let's look at where the Pats typically draft. If you look at every team's average draft position in the BB/TB era, the Patriots are easily going to be slotted 32nd, because they easily have the best record, year in and year out (though obviously not EVERY SINGLE year, but on average). So let's look at the value points for the 32nd team:

590, 270, 116, 40, 23.4, 8.6, and 1 for a total of 1049.

So the team drafting first has 2,952.9 more draft points to work with. A team drafting middle of the pack has 668.8 more points to work with than the Pats do. To give you a sense of how much that is, consider that 2,952.9 points is basically the value of the #1 overall pick. Or it's worth FOUR second round picks: the first, the second, the third, and the 32nd second round pick.

So if you're drafting first instead of last, the combined extra value you get is equivalent to another #1 pick, OR it's equivalent to adding the #33, #34, #35, and #64 picks to that team picking first. THAT is how much of a deficit the Patriots have been in when it comes to the draft. Imagine giving BB the #1 draft pick every year, or those four second rounders.

But what about the Pats vs. a middle-of-the-pack draft team? Well that middle of the pack team has 668.8 more points to work with than the Pats do. That 669 (we'll call it) is worth the #28 pick in the draft. OR it's worth the last two picks of the second round PLUS the 30th pick of the third round.

Just for ONE draft, this is an enormous draft disadvantage for the Patriots. But when you add this up over *18 seasons*, the Patriots have been drafting at a colossal, massive, gargantuan disadvantage. When people complain that the Pats don't draft well, understand just how big of a drafting disadvantage it is. It's absolutely ENORMOUS, year in and year out.

Now we'll happily live with that because the only way you get to be, over 18 years, in the 32nd position in the draft is by having incredible success. And that's what we've enjoyed. So yeah, we'll happily accept that crummy draft position in exchange for the unparalleled success this franchise has had. But make no mistake - there's a HUGE price to pay for this success. The league is built to take teams like the Patriots down, and the draft is one huge way to do it.

So when we talk about the Pats' relative draft success or failure, understand that BB routinely operates from a massive massive massive draft disadvantage. That HAS to be factored into the equation.

Belichick is not at a massive massive draft disadvantage. If that were true then his misses, which he has had, would put a strangle hold on any chance for success.

As I stated above the disadvantage is one player in round one. After that, using the example given of Steelers at 23 and the Pats at 30, this is what the draft looks like. The Pats are in red;
30-55-62-87-94-119-126-151-158-183-190-215-222
How's that an advantage in every round and not just for the first pick? If anything the Pats are picking 25 spots ahead of the Steelers for every pick after the first one. Then the Pats add one in the end.

 

[Kontradiction]

Their grades get more and more convoluted and useless by the hour it seems. And this is coming from someone who is very high on Jackson.

 

[Ring 6]

Belichick is not at a massive massive draft disadvantage. If that were true then his misses, which he has had, would put a strangle hold on any chance for success.

As I stated above the disadvantage is one player in round one. After that, using the example given of Steelers at 23 and the Pats at 30, this is what the draft looks like. The Pats are in red;
30-55-62-87-94-119-126-151-158-183-190-215-222
How's that an advantage in every round and not just for the first pick? If anything the Pats are picking 25 spots ahead of the Steelers for every pick after the first one. Then the Pats add one in the end.

Huh?
Each round the pick is higher.
55 is better than 62. 87 is better than 94.
You can’t say it’s not an advantage in the second round because we had a first round pick, they did too.
If you aren’t counting the first you can’t pretend the patriots first counts as a second.
And everyone makes numerous “mistakes” drafting. Winning doesn’t disprove that picking later is not a disadvantage. Not does “ he missed on some” because everyone misses on some. Additionally when you have the best team it’s harder for those picks to get on the field. Every year people talk about the great drafts bad teams had because all the guys they draft get right on the field.

 

[ivanvamp]

Belichick is not at a massive massive draft disadvantage. If that were true then his misses, which he has had, would put a strangle hold on any chance for success.

As I stated above the disadvantage is one player in round one. After that, using the example given of Steelers at 23 and the Pats at 30, this is what the draft looks like. The Pats are in red;
30-55-62-87-94-119-126-151-158-183-190-215-222
How's that an advantage in every round and not just for the first pick? If anything the Pats are picking 25 spots ahead of the Steelers for every pick after the first one. Then the Pats add one in the end.

It's an advantage every round if you go with a round-by-round comparison. If, instead, you decide to cut out the worse team's first round pick and only compare it after that, well sure, it's going to look more even. But then understand what you're doing:

*You're taking away the worse team's FIRST ROUND PICK* in order to make it even.

First round picks are NFL gold. Think of it this way: imagine what BB could do if he had an extra first round pick every year.

BB is at a massive, massive drafting disadvantage every year, due to their incredible success. Add up the draft points and you see it clearly. In order for your way to "work" you literally have to take away the worse team's first round pick, which for some reason you think of as no big deal but which is a really really really REALLY big deal. One year you can deal with it. But 18 years of this? Uh......yeah.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It's my theory that the Draft is a LOT more random than most people give it credit for and market efficiency only emphasizes this effect though UDFA are obviously going to be less known than the obvious stars.

I think this description of the college admissions process is an apt analogy:

It's not merely comparing apples and oranges, but comparing apples and oranges and trying to decide which one, when fed to a cow, will produce the tastier steak years down the road.

 

[Wheelman]

Could, yeah. IIRC - with his signing bonus, Langi had pretty much the same AAV as a 7th-rounder. With a 2nd-round RFA tender after three years, he could have ended up making more over the 4years than a 7th-rounder. I guess Butler actually did that.

I didn't think of the extra money they'd make if they get a 1st round tender! Great point! In that case I'd rather be undrafted than a 7th a rounder.

 

[Wheelman]

Their grades get more and more convoluted and useless by the hour it seems. And this is coming from someone who is very high on Jackson.

You got to hand it to Collingsworth and whoever else has invested in PFF. They did a great marketing job and getting networks to buy into this BS. Even NYJFL* Network is using it now occasionally.

 

[Joey007]

I hope he stays out of trouble. Sounds like that was a a big reason for his draft stock plummeting.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I think the 2018 draft could very well go down as one of BB's most successful drafts (and I'll add Jackson in there even though he was a UDFA). Here's how I predict it will shake out:

Michel: pro-bowl level RB for 4-5 years (even if he doesn't "make" the pro bowl)
Wynn: starter on the OL for years
Jackson: pro-bowl level CB for a long time
Bentley: starter at LB
Crossen: will end up on ST and playing as a sub in the secondary, getting spot starts as the current safeties retire
Dawson: will end up being a sub in the secondary, getting some starts as JMac ages or there are injuries
Sam: nothing
Berrios: maybe in 2019 steps in as the primary slot receiver
Etling: nothing
Izzo: maybe becomes a backup TE

So I see at least 4 starters, 2 pro-bowl caliber players, and no less than 7 contributors from this draft class alone. That would be a grand slam in every way imaginable.

Naturally, I could be wrong on most or all of this, but that's how I see it going.

I think this is a fair and accurate assessment.

One small change, I think Wynn and Sony are our two future pro bowlers, if sony’s knee holds up,

 

[1960Pats]

Huh?
Each round the pick is higher.
55 is better than 62. 87 is better than 94.
You can’t say it’s not an advantage in the second round because we had a first round pick, they did too.
If you aren’t counting the first you can’t pretend the patriots first counts as a second.
And everyone makes numerous “mistakes” drafting. Winning doesn’t disprove that picking later is not a disadvantage. Not does “ he missed on some” because everyone misses on some. Additionally when you have the best team it’s harder for those picks to get on the field. Every year people talk about the great drafts bad teams had because all the guys they draft get right on the field.

I am counting the first pick. In the example I used the Steelers got pick the 23rd pick and that's their advantage. After that the Pats are picking 25 spots ahead of each Steelers pick.

 

[1960Pats]

It's an advantage every round if you go with a round-by-round comparison. If, instead, you decide to cut out the worse team's first round pick and only compare it after that, well sure, it's going to look more even. But then understand what you're doing:

*You're taking away the worse team's FIRST ROUND PICK* in order to make it even.

First round picks are NFL gold. Think of it this way: imagine what BB could do if he had an extra first round pick every year.

BB is at a massive, massive drafting disadvantage every year, due to their incredible success. Add up the draft points and you see it clearly. In order for your way to "work" you literally have to take away the worse team's first round pick, which for some reason you think of as no big deal but which is a really really really REALLY big deal. One year you can deal with it. But 18 years of this? Uh......yeah.

I definitely think that the worse team's first pick makes a difference. I just think that it's the only advantage. Using the point system you used in your first post, what is the value of the 23rd pick? Whatever it is would be the starting point for the advantage but then wouldn't the better team be making up some points on the rest of the picks?

 

[Ring 6]

I am counting the first pick. In the example I used the Steelers got pick the 23rd pick and that's their advantage. After that the Pats are picking 25 spots ahead of each Steelers pick.

That’s stupid.
Every team picks earlier in the second than other teams pick in the 3rd.

 

[ivanvamp]

I definitely think that the worse team's first pick makes a difference. I just think that it's the only advantage. Using the point system you used in your first post, what is the value of the 23rd pick? Whatever it is would be the starting point for the advantage but then wouldn't the better team be making up some points on the rest of the picks?

I literally walked through how this works according to the points chart. I compared the #1 pick team with the #16 pick team (middle of the pack) with the #32 pick team.

JC Jackson has the best passer rating allowed in the NFL

And that extra first round pick may be the "only" advantage, but that's ENORMOUS. You are making it seem like it's really not much of a big deal, when it's a HUGE HUGE deal. It's a big deal for one year. Now play that scenario out over the course of 18 years and you see that the Pats - not even counting the lost picks due to the stupid penalties the NFL hit them with - have been essentially been drafting with a huge handicap year in and year out.

 

[ivanvamp]

To the question of the #23 slot vs. the #32 slot...

#23: 760, 350, 155, 49, 27, 12.2, 1 = 1,354.2
#32: 590, 270, 116, 40, 23.4, 8.6, 1 = 1,049

Difference of 305.2. That's equivalent to the the 28th pick of the second round.

So if you gave Pittsburgh an extra second round pick every year over the Patriots, over the course of a dozen years (never mind 18), don't you think that's going to add up to a significant advantage? The Patriots would have to be *significantly* better than the Steelers at drafting in order to make up for that disparity.

 

[Uptown]

Source: @patsinthesnow (Thank you)

THIS!

The Patriots have the #1 3rd down defense in the NFL (25%) since JC Jackson was inserted as the starting CB opposite Gilmore against Minnesota.

 

[TB_Helmet]

To the question of the #23 slot vs. the #32 slot...

#23: 760, 350, 155, 49, 27, 12.2, 1 = 1,354.2
#32: 590, 270, 116, 40, 23.4, 8.6, 1 = 1,049

Difference of 305.2. That's equivalent to the the 28th pick of the second round.

So if you gave Pittsburgh an extra second round pick every year over the Patriots, over the course of a dozen years (never mind 18), don't you think that's going to add up to a significant advantage? The Patriots would have to be *significantly* better than the Steelers at drafting in order to make up for that disparity.

Sure, but first of all that draft value chart is just something somebody pulled out of thin air without any empirical data or benefit of modern analytics, and second, your method and conclusions both seem a bit convoluted to me.

ETA: would you swap the 30th pick in each round, plus an extra second round pick you happened to have, for the 23rd pick in each round? I probably wouldn’t.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

LOL Using the draft trade chart to try & make the point the NE has has it harder drafting late might be the dumbest fuc kin thing I've ever heard but please carry on.

This theory is the equivalent to, two monkeys banging a football.