Is This The Decline Of Tom Brady? Look At The Film, And The Answer Is Obvious

[mcmurtry86]

Seems like the bad personnel - declining core players or fringe talent - has led McDaniels to the idea that he needs to rethink his scheme and play calling to compensate.

The lack of quick separation guys has compounded the problem as well. So Brady is stuck with long developing misdirection plays or his guys take too long to get open and he has to force the ball or move around a lot under pressure

The fix for the offense is to actually replace the skill sets of the guys they lost last year (Cooks, Amendola) and move on from Gronk and Edelman (or keep Edelman in a reduced role)

Gordon is a great talent but he’s not a quick separation guy. The current group of players would be ok if the team could run consistently but they can’t. Despite the massive contract for “all pro run blocking specialist” Mason, despite a 1st round pick on Michel, despite having a really good fullback, the run game works only some weeks in some packages and is rarely committed to when it works (and overly committed to when it doesn’t work)

Improve the run blocking, add a talented quick shifty #2 WR (opposite Gordon) and get another serviceable young RB in case Michel continues his mediocrity and the offense will start to him. Of course, that’s a huge ask especially with needing a new TE and having to replace Hogan and Patterson (or bring them back cheaply).

The WR handling in the offseason and over reliance on broken down Edelman/Gronkowski is the main issue with the unit. Lack of talent and depth at RB is a lesser issue. The struggles of the OL to run block is a mystery as well, Cannon should probably be moved on from at this point and Thuney could stand to be upgraded

Much to do to get the offense back to an elite unit that can carry a garbage D

 

[wheresmosi]

Too much dadgum running.

Tom ought to be at the line running up-tempo no-huddle, which we never do anymore, and which wears out the D and slows the pass rush. The excuse was all the new people. Well, they ain't new anymore. Open it up. Attack.

Trent Dilfer today on Cowherd said that he thinks Tom's decline in numbers is due more to the fact that they've tried to transition to more of an old school style, and they will be looking to go back to an up tempo spread the next two games, as they have in the past. I'm not sure they have the WR to pull it off (though maybe they could get by with a lot of underneath stuff, but that gets shut down eventually), but it is worth a shot.

 

[wheresmosi]

It's a small point, but one thing I do kind of like about the current approach is getting Devlin the ball more fot the occasional keep them off balance intent, both near the goal line and on the occasional pass. I think we can keep that wrinkle in and still do a bit more uptempo spread passing, though obviously those alignments don't usually involve the the FB being out there.

 

[Deus Irae]

The thing is, this is not a "There it is!" situation where the problem is obvious. For example, look to Michel's numbers.

In the 4 games leading up to his injury and time lost in the middle of the year (not the start),

25 112 4.48
18 98 5.44
24 106 4.42
4 22 5.50

In the games since his return

11 31 2.82
21 133 6.33
17 63 3.71
20 57 2.85
13 59 4.54

 

[pheenix11]

It’s not physical, it’s mental. When Brady & McDaniel get behind they get impatient and start with the bombs instead of utilizing the short game. White was open, he had time to get yards and get out of bounds. Instead they are chucking it in the end zone with four guys standing next to each other.

The screen pass to Edelman was also utterly stupid.

Between the playcalling, stupid penalties, drops and Brady brain farts the whole team is playing with their collective head up their ass. I don’t know WTF their problem is but it means they can either get bounced in the first round or win the whole damn thing depending on if they can get their heads screwed on straight.

The problem on offense is not a lack of skills, it’s mental.

 

[Coolade2]

It’s not physical, it’s mental. When Brady & McDaniel get behind they get impatient and start with the bombs instead of utilizing the short game. White was open, he had time to get yards and get out of bounds. Instead they are chucking it in the end zone with four guys standing next to each other.

The screen pass to Edelman was also utterly stupid.

Between the playcalling, stupid penalties, drops and Brady brain farts the whole team is playing with their collective head up their ass. I don’t know WTF their problem is but it means they can either get bounced in the first round or win the whole damn thing depending on if they can get their heads screwed on straight.

The problem on offense is not a lack of skills, it’s mental.

In other words he's human. So basically he's making the mistakes of average QB s . So yeah this is the decline... it's gonna be little things like not avoiding pressure , or falling down while throwing when he's not being hit. . And this tends to happen at the end of the games.. . That's what old guys do. It's what happens to old guys.

You add it all up and you lose the game.

It's like a round of golf and you make 3 birdies but shoot 76 .. um you look great on those 3 holes and still hit it far enough. But the total score is 4 over par. Too many mistakes.

A great team can help him a lot . Great coaching also.. That's what needs to happen.

 

[maineman209]

Brady's per-game stats:

YEAR - comp% - TD% - int% - Y/A - Y/C --- Y/G -- rtg --- QBR -- sk% - 4QC - GWD

2014 -- 64.1% --- 5.7 --- 1.5% - 7.1 -- 11.0 --- 256.8 - 97.4 --- 76.2 - 3.5% --- 2 ----- 2
2015 -- 64.4% --- 5.8 --- 1.1% - 7.6 - 11.9 ---- 298.1 - 102.2 - 68.0 - 5.7% --- 2 ----- 2
2016 -- 67.4% --- 6.5 --- 0.5% - 8.2 - 12.2 --- 296.2 - 112.2 - 79.1 -- 3.4% --- 1 ----- 1
2017 -- 66.3% --- 5.5 --- 1.4% - 7.9 -- 11.9 --- 286.1 - 102.8 - 73.2 -- 5.7% --- 2 ---- 2
2018 -- 65.9% --- 4.7 --- 1.8% - 7.8 - 11.8 ---- 284.2 - 97.6 -- 68.6 -- 3.6% --- 1 ---- 2

 

[SamusAranX]

Brady seems to be going for more throws over the middle, and less of the sideline/outside throws that really require a rocket to deliver. I won’t say this is necessarily a sign of declining arm strength but as he gets older it makes sense he’d go for the easier, high percentage throws

Of course my perception could be wrong. All statements of mine are wrong or your money back, guaranteed

 

[Brady6]

It is really not surprising to me that Brady is playing worse this season. He didn’t attend OTAs and that has always been an important part of his process. I don’t see it as a decline as much as a change in approach.

 

[borg]

One of the things I think we've seen this year is an increase in risk-averse play calling. I'm not talking about Brady bailing out against the rush. I'm talking about this team limiting its plays out of personnel (or other) concerns. How much of that is about the decline of the receiving corps? How much of that is the hope that Michel will become something more than what Stevan Ridley was in his first years? How much of that is the concern with an OL that seems to make too many mistakes on the road? How much of that is the concern over a defense that is not getting nearly the amount of blame it deserves (Imagine how bad this game would have been if Roethlisberger hadn't coughed up two terrible passes, bailing the Patriots defense out both times) How much, if any, is about Brady no longer scanning the field in the same way he used to?

What's happened to James White? He was the offense early in the year and now his role is limited. Is he dinged up and in preservation mode until the playoffs? Since Edelman's return, White's impact is barely noticed.

Regarding Gronk and his pedestrian stats....Let's not forget he's been the only real TE on the roster for the past month, playing most every snap, often battling on the LOS as the 6th O Lineman, covering up for LT Baby Huey. The dude has to be exhausted. MMA one play, sprint/catch/take shots at the knees/hit the ground on the next. Then to be a free safety on the last play in Miami?

Brady's mindset has to be similar to an aging pitcher who needs all his craft to guide the ball across the plate safely. "Sacks bad, INTs terrible, live to play another down."
Unfortunately....his "guys" are letting him down. Ordinary Gronk, Suspended Edelman/Butterfingers Edelman, and the carousel of WRs that funnel in and out of Gillette.

Clearly BB has placed emphasis on the running game this year (1st rd Sony), and I have to believe this is partially a tactic to preserve Brady as long as possible.

Yes.....NE is risk-averse in many ways this year....much more so than usual
(BB's tried and true Bend n Break D is still his #1 most risk averse strategy though)

And the DL blows....but we all know that.

 

[Brady6]

Apparently there was a car full of QBs driving off the cliff

Drew Brees 3 games, 531 yards, 2 touchdowns, 3 interceptions
Jared Goff 3 games, 627 yards 1 touchdown, 7 interceptions
Cam Newton 3 games, 626 yards, 2 touchdowns, 6 interceptions

 

[Uncle Rico]

One of the things I think we've seen this year is an increase in risk-averse play calling. I'm not talking about Brady bailing out against the rush. I'm talking about this team limiting its plays out of personnel (or other) concerns. How much of that is about the decline of the receiving corps? How much of that is the hope that Michel will become something more than what Stevan Ridley was in his first years? How much of that is the concern with an OL that seems to make too many mistakes on the road? How much of that is the concern over a defense that is not getting nearly the amount of blame it deserves (Imagine how bad this game would have been if Roethlisberger hadn't coughed up two terrible passes, bailing the Patriots defense out both times) How much, if any, is about Brady no longer scanning the field in the same way he used to?

Agree. At halftime Sunday, I think it was Matt Chatham who tweeted that the Pats had used like 2% of their playbook the first half, going very conservative, and he expected them to open up second half. I had seen them do that sort of thing before so totally agreed and expected to see just that. Nope. Brady's Circle of Trust is very narrow these days and those in it don't seem quite as reliable as they once were.

 

[maineman209]

Brady seems to be going for more throws over the middle, and less of the sideline/outside throws that really require a rocket to deliver. I won’t say this is necessarily a sign of declining arm strength but as he gets older it makes sense he’d go for the easier, high percentage throws

Of course my perception could be wrong. All statements of mine are wrong or your money back, guaranteed

Throws into the short-to-intermediate zone between the number have been Brady's bread-and-butter forever.

But it really comes down to how the opposing defense elects to cover. After the Minny game, BB was asked about Gordon's lack of targets in the first half versus his explosion in late Q3. He said that Minny changed its coverage - they went away from using widely split safeties which gave Gordon more room to work on the outside.

 

[maineman209]

Agree. At halftime Sunday, I think it was Matt Chatham who tweeted that the Pats had used like 2% of their playbook the first half, going very conservative, and he expected them to open up second half. I had seen them do that sort of thing before so totally agreed and expected to see just that. Nope. Brady's Circle of Trust is very narrow these days and those in it don't seem quite as reliable as they once were.

Since the BYE (4 games), descending order by target count (with yards per target):

Edelman = 23/36 (64%) ... 285 (7.93 YPT)..... 2 TD
White = .. 15/25 (60%) ... 137 (5.48 YPT) .... 0 TD
Gronk = .. 16/24 (67%) ... 210 (8.75 YPT) .... 2 TD
Gordon = . 14/19 (74%) ... 244 (12.84 YPT) ... 1 TD
Patterson = 8/10 (80%) ... 173 (17.30 YPT) ... 1 TD

Hogan = .... 6/8 (75%) ... 135 (16.88 YPT) ... 1 TD
Burkhead = . 6/7 (86%) .... 42 (6.0 YPT) ..... 0 TD
Develin = .. 3/3 (100%) ... 27 (9.0 YPT) ..... 0 TD
Michel = ... 3/3 (100%) ... 19 (6.33 YPT) .... 0 TD
Dorsett = .. 2/2 (100%) ... 10 (5.0 YPT) ..... 0 TD


WEEKs 1-4 (4 games):

White = ... 22/30 (73%) .. 193 (6.43 YPT) ... 3 TD
Gronk = ... 17/24 (71%) .. 233 (9.71 YPT) ... 1 TD
Dorsett = . 16/21 (76%) .. 165 (7.86 YPT) ... 2 TD
Hogan = .... 8/15 (53%) .. 109 (7.27 YPT) ... 2 TD
Patterson = 8/12 (67%) ... 90 (7.50 YPT) ... 1 TD

Develin = .. 4/7 (57%) .... 22 (pi YPT)
Burkhead = . 3/6 (50%) .... 31 (5.17 YPT)
Michel = ... 2/5 (40%) ..... 6 (1.20 YPT) (3 games)
Gordon = ... 2/2 (100%) ... 32 (16.00 YPT) (1 game)

Hollister, Hill and Allen all caught at least one pass during the first four games.
Edelman was ON SUSPENSION.

 

[IllegalContact]

Brady needs to watch Rocky 3 because

there is no tomorrow

the movie script is set.......Manning comes to help Brady and they run on the beach together


my guess is that mcdaniel is mickey

 

[Joker]

The referees are the catspaws of that scumbag sitting enthroned at 345 Park Ave. NYC. No team looks good when penalties against are 14 to the home team's 4. Last night, there were so many egregious fouls in the Saints/Panthers game I lost count by halftime. Calls? Heh...krist there was one hit 7 yards out of bounds for chrissakes. The Panthers DID manage to stay in the game however, and eyes stayed glued to the TV screens.

You're watching an isomer of the WWE, constructed by Goodell and minions at the expressed wishes of the 32 Billionaires Boys Club members. You're trying to make sense out of something that only cents applies to. You all say "the fire seems to be out in these Pats players this season". Yeah, gee golly whiz...maybe they realized these ridiculous rules changes this season make a mockery out of the "game".Perhaps the lack of fire you see in other teams play at different junctures this season is the result of this "New NFL World Order".

The Article 46 decision SHOULD HAVE opened your eyes to this ongoing NFL scam, but fans are only interested in getting their weekly crack every Thursday and Sunday. They are quite willing to allow this sports media that is intrinsically tied into the NFL monolith to constantly bombard their lives with contrived narratives. All cogs in the multi-billion dollar a year NFL treasure bath machine.

 

[CISGS]

One of the things I think we've seen this year is an increase in risk-averse play calling. I'm not talking about Brady bailing out against the rush. I'm talking about this team limiting its plays out of personnel (or other) concerns. How much of that is about the decline of the receiving corps? How much of that is the hope that Michel will become something more than what Stevan Ridley was in his first years? How much of that is the concern with an OL that seems to make too many mistakes on the road? How much of that is the concern over a defense that is not getting nearly the amount of blame it deserves (Imagine how bad this game would have been if Roethlisberger hadn't coughed up two terrible passes, bailing the Patriots defense out both times) How much, if any, is about Brady no longer scanning the field in the same way he used to?

Dude well said. This is 100% on the money.

 

[Angelpats]

I think you're half right. The up-tempo part is fine but it should include running plays. Play action works better when you have a threat of a running play.
I've never been a big fan of the pass-happy offense.

When you can’t run then there is really no other option than throwing it. Which main won us the last two super bowls.

 

[203Pat]

It’s not physical, it’s mental. When Brady & McDaniel get behind they get impatient and start with the bombs instead of utilizing the short game. White was open, he had time to get yards and get out of bounds. Instead they are chucking it in the end zone with four guys standing next to each other.

The screen pass to Edelman was also utterly stupid.

Between the playcalling, stupid penalties, drops and Brady brain farts the whole team is playing with their collective head up their ass. I don’t know WTF their problem is but it means they can either get bounced in the first round or win the whole damn thing depending on if they can get their heads screwed on straight.

The problem on offense is not a lack of skills, it’s mental.

The double fake screen pass drives me crazy. It seems to work about 10% of the time. Just line up and play football.

 

[Lavictoire]

the article neglects to mention on that series of plays Brady should have checked down to White on all but the 4th down.

I think they were out of time outs.