Overlooking the Hot Hand

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Wow aren't you the smart one who knows the future without trying it.

Wut

 

[Joker]

Bye week coming up..emotional, supposedly nail in the coffin game versus the DDD still fresh in their minds..extremely disappointed "knower of thing"'s media morons looking for a life ring...a classic let down game with the expected moronic media blame orgy.When you see the best CB lolly gagging out there like it's a preseason game, well, they were already on the plane home before the first snap.

I know some of you keyboard warriors wnat 100% effort and 100% perfection every possession of every game but the NFL isn't a SEGA game where you always "WEEEEEE-UN"..it's real life. It's a sport that most of you, if ever hit like NFL players do to each other every play, would find yourseves ,laid up in a coma ward with a tube down your throat and one up your d!ck.

The objective is the playoffs...NUMBER 1. Worry about how that plays out when it gets here, meanwhile do what a real fan SHOULD do and support the team and players. Nothing is perfect and you DO NOT get everything you always want...even if mommy told you so.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

Wow aren't you the smart one who knows the future without trying it. Actually it's kinda stupid to sub a dancing timid back instead of a bigger fast explosive one... And then walk away with 40 yards rushing..

In my original post, I wasn't even suggesting Patterson needed to play running back. We could have him at receiver and use trick plays and screens to get him involved. The guy is explosive with the ball in his hands and we needed that on Sunday.

In addition, Michel is great when he is healthy but he looked like he needs a few more weeks to get back to a solid option. With that in mind, I don't see why we didn't keep White back there most plays instead of using Michel at all.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

...and the defensive players are...well, you know...the defensive players.

I'm not a fan of just letting the defense slide when it comes to accountability. The offense can be a juggernaut again if they focus on doing the little things right. With the defense, I think they can also improve to a decent group. Against Green Bay, for example, we actually looked good. If the defense continues to struggle, however, I think it is time to just cut some players and get guys off the street to replace them. It's not like we're going to get much trade value for any of the defense.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

The objective is the playoffs...NUMBER 1. Worry about how that plays out when it gets here, meanwhile do what a real fan SHOULD do and support the team and players. Nothing is perfect and you DO NOT get everything you always want...even if mommy told you so.

The objective is not the playoffs. The objective is the bye. The recipe for success historically has been getting the number one or two seed so we play one less game. In other words, the bye week is Florence Nightingale.

Without a bye this year, we have no hope. Just look at our team: they are the extras from the Walking Dead ambling around wondering how everything went from season 1 greatness to Rick in a helicopter. If we are going to succeed this season, we need that bye and this loss put a huge dent in that process.

At this point, the Steelers either lose two games (to us and the Saints) or just one (the Saints). I'm not prepared to have them win out or drop a bunch of games with how well they're playing. If they only lose one, they go 12-3-1 and get the number two seed unless that loss is to us and we win out at 13-3. If we beat them and they drop one more that means they are probably 11-4-1. To beat that record and clinch the second seed, we need to go 12-4. To reach 12-4 requires us to go 5-1 down the stretch. If we lose two more games, we'll probably get the third seed.

Long story short, we're going to have a difficult time clinching the second seed. Without the bye, we have little chance of winning a championship due to our injuries. Let's hope we can turn it around and run the table.

 

[Joker]

The objective is not the playoffs. The objective is the bye. The recipe for success historically has been getting the number one or two seed so we play one less game. In other words, the bye week is Florence Nightingale.

Without a bye this year, we have no hope. Just look at our team: they are the extras from the Walking Dead ambling around wondering how everything went from season 1 greatness to Rick in a helicopter. If we are going to succeed this season, we need that bye and this loss put a huge dent in that process.

At this point, the Steelers either lose two games (to us and the Saints) or just one (the Saints). I'm not prepared to have them win out or drop a bunch of games with how well they're playing. If they only lose one, they go 12-3-1 and get the number two seed unless that loss is to us and we win out at 13-3. If we beat them and they drop one more that means they are probably 11-4-1. To beat that record and clinch the second seed, we need to go 12-4. To reach 12-4 requires us to go 5-1 down the stretch. If we lose two more games, we'll probably get the third seed.

Long story short, we're going to have a difficult time clinching the second seed. Without the bye, we have little chance of winning a championship due to our injuries. Let's hope we can turn it around and run the table.

why does this even have to be explained? The objective IS the playoffs...the NEXT objective is the bye. The NEXT objective is homefield after the bye. The NEXT objective is home field throughout the playoff format. We do NOT accomplish anything without FIRST making the playoffs. There's a ton of variables in play if/when the Pats DO make the playoffs. Unless you have some kind of prescient foresight, you do not know how any team will look UNTIL you get in.

 

[Coolade2]

Wait. You are telling me the wr who filled in at RB while the real RB was injured should have been playing RB when the real
RB was healthy again? For real?

Oh yeah real healthy... 40 yards for entire offense. Try grasping entirety of posts. You might sound more relevant.

 

[Coolade2]

This could be one reason

https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFallacies/233/Hot-Hand-Fallacy

In football it doesn't represent luck or probability. It's going with what has worked well and building on that execution. If you go back to previously injured starter .. you risk playing the tentative stale option which is what we saw.

A good OC would recognize this and opt away to plan B. Just not a good OC unfortunately . Not in this game. Sucked especially since armchair OCs recognized the need for innovation on this offense and posted last week. mcD musta missed that...

 

[luuked]

If the defense continues to struggle, however, I think it is time to just cut some players and get guys off the street to replace them. It's not like we're going to get much trade value for any of the defense.

Who are those players you want to cut ? And even more intriguing who are those street free agents you want to sign to replace multiple players who have been here since camp ?

You know the trade deadline is over, right ? You trying again to tell us that it is time to throw in the towel on the season and rebuild like after the Lions game ?

 

[luuked]

In football it doesn't represent luck or probability. It's going with what has worked well and building on that execution. If you go back to previously injured starter .. you risk playing the tentative stale option which is what we saw.

Except we have not played the Titans before this season so you are assuming something that worked well against the Packers for 1-2 series would suddenly work again against the Titans. Which is extremely naive. What do you think the coaching staff is doing all week ? Watch Netflix ?

A good OC would recognize this and opt away to plan B. Just not a good OC unfortunately . Not in this game. Sucked especially since armchair OCs recognized the need for innovation on this offense and posted last week. mcD musta missed that...

McDaniels is in the absolute elite group of OC / playcallers in this league. His play design on most occasions is second to none in the league.

But as everyone else on this planet he is not immune to get stuck at trying few concepts for too long or just working from a flawed premise (thinking they could exploit a player if they really could not). Similarly he is also at the mercy of his players to execute the designs.

If your GOAT QB is not able to find White in the flat for a first down after the play designed constructed a pick for him but goes to a 50/50 jump ball instead then there is not much that can be done. Similarly, if your blocking TE just uncharacteristically screws up 2 early blocks and blows up runs that would have gone for first downs, what exactly are you supposed to do ? Or when your receiving TE runs the wrong route. Or when a OL who has players going in and out due to injuries keeps letting rushers affect Brady's throws. Or, again, your QB misses a wide open WR on the outside and instead goes inside into double coverage.

Bad playcalling was one of the smaller issues the offense had on Sunday.

 

[Coolade2]

Except we have not played the Titans before this season so you are assuming something that worked well against the Packers for 1-2 series would suddenly work again against the Titans. Which is extremely naive. What do you think the coaching staff is doing all week ? Watch Netflix ?



McDaniels is in the absolute elite group of OC / playcallers in this league. His play design on most occasions is second to none in the league.

But as everyone else on this planet he is not immune to get stuck at trying few concepts for too long or just working from a flawed premise (thinking they could exploit a player if they really could not). Similarly he is also at the mercy of his players to execute the designs.

If your GOAT QB is not able to find White in the flat for a first down after the play designed constructed a pick for him but goes to a 50/50 jump ball instead then there is not much that can be done. Similarly, if your blocking TE just uncharacteristically screws up 2 early blocks and blows up runs that would have gone for first downs, what exactly are you supposed to do ? Or when your receiving TE runs the wrong route. Or when a OL who has players going in and out due to injuries keeps letting rushers affect Brady's throws. Or, again, your QB misses a wide open WR on the outside and instead goes inside into double coverage.

Bad playcalling was one of the smaller issues the offense had on Sunday.

Blah , blah your mistakes are all on ill conceived plays on half baked game plan. Patterson was the only explosive back so he should have been carrying the ball period. Not just serving as play action decoy.

Do you cherry pick posts ..? And um .. you're the "naive " one to think plays that work against green Bay will not work any other time the following week.

 

[Biffins]

You're right. Let's trade Michel, we got CP as RB now.


wait .... whut?!

 

[jah]

Not defending the game plan but I think the White thing is more on Tennessee from snap 1 they gave him more attention than any other team this year.

Late on the response but yeah when I said schemed out of the game I meant on Tennessee's part.

 

[p8ryts]

Matchups > hot hand. That being said, both the game plan and its execution were awful. White was getting schemed out of the game, and Patterson was never that hot to begin with.

Also Titans committed to stopping White. Patterson utilization a mystery. I might prefer him over Gordon. I'm losing interest in Gordon. He's a tease, too inconsistent. I like Patterson's effort and intensity.

 

[Ring 6]

Oh yeah real healthy... 40 yards for entire offense. Try grasping entirety of posts. You might sound more relevant.

You point of view is stupid. A wr playing rb had a couple of good runs against a weak run d. So he should replve the real running back. And your argument is “how do you know what wasn’t dine wouldn’t work, therefore it would have”.
You are so far off it’s not even worth discussing. It’s like taking to someone from a different country who has never seen a football game.

 

[Ring 6]

Blah , blah your mistakes are all on ill conceived plays on half baked game plan. Patterson was the only explosive back so he should have been carrying the ball period. Not just serving as play action decoy.

Do you cherry pick posts ..? And um .. you're the "naive " one to think plays that work against green Bay will not work any other time the following week.

Patterson is an explosive RB and Michel isn’t?
Seriously do you know anything at all about football?

 

[Tony2046]

In my original post, I wasn't even suggesting Patterson needed to play running back. We could have him at receiver and use trick plays and screens to get him involved. The guy is explosive with the ball in his hands and we needed that on Sunday.

In addition, Michel is great when he is healthy but he looked like he needs a few more weeks to get back to a solid option. With that in mind, I don't see why we didn't keep White back there most plays instead of using Michel at all.

Because the O line was shredded with injuries and the Titans schemed against White and Edelman. The Titans front four were getting pressure on Brady all day. That's never good.

 

[jah]

Also Titans committed to stopping White. Patterson utilization a mystery. I might prefer him over Gordon. I'm losing interest in Gordon. He's a tease, too inconsistent. I like Patterson's effort and intensity.

When I said "schemed out" I was talking about the Titans.

I definitely do not prefer Patterson over Gordon. Brady is currently forcing balls to Gordon so much that it makes both of them look bad.

 

[Coolade2]

You point of view is stupid. A wr playing rb had a couple of good runs against a weak run d. So he should replve the real running back. And your argument is “how do you know what wasn’t dine wouldn’t work, therefore it would have”.
You are so far off it’s not even worth discussing. It’s like taking to someone from a different country who has never seen a football game.

Yeah.. Follow if possible, a play that works you declare will not work for no reason.. That's dumb speculation. At least I'm basing it on execution the previous week. Second. Cp is explosive and aggressive. Michel has a girls name and runs like it after injury. Miss that also? Please continue.. This is fun

 

[luuked]

Blah , blah your mistakes are all on ill conceived plays on half baked game plan. Patterson was the only explosive back so he should have been carrying the ball period. Not just serving as play action decoy.

Do you cherry pick posts ..? And um .. you're the "naive " one to think plays that work against green Bay will not work any other time the following week.

Being the genius you are you certainly realized that Green Bay made CP completely ineffective as a RB once they switched to Bear fronts (ie. made him run to the outside) Right ?