Keeping track of the defense.

[PatsFan2]

I have no idea if Flores did or didn't make any adjustments, but what I do know is while Kelce and Watkins were pretty much under control, Hill and Hunt went wild.

Allowing Hill all those free releases and without accounting for him in each downfield zone was bad.

The Chiefs have Four Really good Offensive Players they Doubled and Roughed up Kelce at the LOS and took Watkins away. They left the Speeds Hill and Hunt and got burnt by both....seems like the coverage got confused with Hill a couple of times. Mahomes did miss Hunt early for a easy TD when he left Hightower in his dust lucky for us.

 

[maineman209]

Seems to me what we're seeing right now is average results against average (combined) offenses, which leads me to believe this defense, at the moment, is average.

Hopefully they upgrade to good as the season goes on. I think we CAN win with this offense and an average defense, but I wouldn't bet any money on it. There's always at least one playoff game where the offense gets stymied and needs the D to step up.

For the first four games, the defense allowed an average of 240 passing yards/game (including a 376-yd performance by Bortles). That average would be 10th in the league now.

The last two games, the D has allowed 354 passing yds/game, good for dead last in the league as an average.
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The first three games, the D allowed an average of 143 rushing yards/game - good for 30th in today's rankings.
The past three games, the D has allowed 78 rushing yds/game - good for 2nd best (behind CHI) in today's rankings.
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I don't know about "average", but extremely inconsistent, for sure.

 

[Sicilian]

For the first four games, the defense allowed an average of 240 passing yards/game (including a 376-yd performance by Bortles). That average would be 10th in the league now.

The last two games, the D has allowed 354 passing yds/game, good for dead last in the league as an average.
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The first three games, the D allowed an average of 143 rushing yards/game - good for 30th in today's rankings.
The past three games, the D has allowed 78 rushing yds/game - good for 2nd best (behind CHI) in today's rankings.
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I don't know about "average", but extremely inconsistent, for sure.

You bring up some good points. I wonder though, whether "inconsistent" is the new average in today's NFL. Consistency on defense, even 15 or so years ago, seemed to be because you could really muck up the works on the offense. There was less explosion, because you could maul guys and keep the long plays from developing on a regular basis.

Now that there's less physicality and more room to operate, the dink and dunk stuff stays roughly the same but the potential is there for ANY play to bust into a 20+ yard chunk play. I mean, take one or two big plays from each Patriots game and things probably look a lot better. I don't mean that to sound like an excuse, just musing on the possibilities of this new NFL.

 

[Belichick8384]

Through 6 games last year the defense looked a LOT more abyssmal. It makes me feel better about this year's defense with 10 games left in the regular season to improve.

2018 -> 2017
25 pts/game -> 27 pts/game
379 yds/game -> 441 yds/game
269 PassYds/game -> 325 PassYds/game
111 RushYds/game -> 116 RushYds/game

I rounded the figures.

 

[patfanken]

As of Week 7:

1. Points/Game - 18th
2. YPG - 20th
3. 3rd down % - 27th
4. Net passing yards/attempt - 20th
5. Net rushing yards/attempt - 21st
6. TO % - 7th

Average = 19th

Opponent offensive rankings (PPG) - UPDATED THROUGH WEEK 6:

1. Texans - 21st
2. Jaguars - 29th
3. Lions - 14th
4. Dolphins - 22nd
5. Colts - 13th
6. Chiefs - 2nd

Average = 17th

Unsurprisingly, the stats and averages took a bit of a dip with the #2 offense in the NFL coming to town (Saints are up at #1 now).

Tells you a LOT about the state of the NFL these days when you can score 38,38, and 43 on three consecutive weeks and STILL be 18th in scoring.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Tells you a LOT about the state of the NFL these days when you can score 38,38, and 43 on three consecutive weeks and STILL be 18th in scoring.

Those are the rankings on defense, not on offense. On offense I believe the Patriots are at #4 in most PPG now behind the Rams, Chiefs and Saints.

 

[captain stone]

Seems to me what we're seeing right now is average results against average (combined) offenses, which leads me to believe this defense, at the moment, is average...

Seems to me that if your defense provides only average results vs average offenses, that makes your defense below average overall.

 

[Sicilian]

Seems to me that if your defense provides only average results vs average offenses, that makes your defense below average overall.

How do you figure? Being middle of the pack playing middle of the pack is the definition of average. If they played middle of the pack offenses (which I'm guessing is where most teams end up by seasons end more or less), and were in the top ten in defense, they'd be above average, because their results are better than the teams they're playing. Likewise in the opposite direction, they'd be below average.

 

[Kontradiction]

Seems to me that if your defense provides only average results vs average offenses, that makes your defense below average overall.

That’s what we will figure out as the year goes along. Right now, as everyone can plainly see, the level of competition you’re playing also affects statistical rankings. It’s a good reason for not just simply tossing statements like “2017 was the 5th ranked defense” out there without any sort of context.

 

[maineman209]

How do you figure? Being middle of the pack playing middle of the pack is the definition of average. If they played middle of the pack offenses (which I'm guessing is where most teams end up by seasons end more or less), and were in the top ten in defense, they'd be above average, because their results are better than the teams they're playing. Likewise in the opposite direction, they'd be below average.

That's why 2017's Points Allowed ranking was always a bit of a mirage. The defense had a run of above average performances against offenses that were well below average.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Pass Defense:
5th on commp% against
8th in QB rating against
5th in ave YPA
4th in INTs

Based on those numbers you would think we had a great pass rush

 

[maineman209]

Pass Defense:
5th on commp% against
8th in QB rating against
5th in ave YPA
4th in INTs

Based on those numbers you would think we had a great pass rush

The front-6 has gotten pretty good at applying pressure. They haven't gotten the sack very often. OTOH, the odds of getting flagged for a clean tackle on the QB have been much higher this season.

Nice to have the INTs, but they could have more. Lotsa dropped picks, including two in the EZ yesterday that cost 14 points. The DBs and LBs need to work with the JUGS machine.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Pass Defense:
5th on commp% against
8th in QB rating against
5th in ave YPA
4th in INTs

Based on those numbers you would think we had a great pass rush

It really is one of the strangest average/mediocre defenses in the league. Gilmore is playing as good as any CB right now & McCourty/Jones are holding their own. They’ve held every QB below their season passer rating with Flowers on the field (the 2011 defense probably did the opposite).

The problem is the secondary is paired with an unathletic front seven turning Trubisky into Michael Vick. That doesn’t appear to be fixable this year.

 

[p8ryts]

Despite the angst from the talking heads, I thought the defense played good yesterday. Trubisky scrambling was their only offense. The TE stuff doesn't bother me, the defense is normally set up so the TE is often open. Of course the Bears play calling helped. If they don't want to use Justin Howard, trade him to the Patriots

 

[Kontradiction]

As of Week 8:

1. Points/Game - 20th
2. YPG - 25th
3. 3rd down % - 27th
4. Net passing yards/attempt - 19th
5. Net rushing yards/attempt - 24th
6. TO % - 6th

Average = 20th

Opponent offensive rankings (PPG) - UPDATED THROUGH WEEK 7:

1. Texans - 21st
2. Jaguars - 29th
3. Lions - 12th
4. Dolphins - 23rd
5. Colts - 10th
6. Chiefs - 1st
7. Bears - 6th

Average = 15th

Still performing below average to average offensive competition. I like where we're at in TO% though.

 

[maineman209]

It really is one of the strangest average/mediocre defenses in the league. Gilmore is playing as good as any CB right now & McCourty/Jones are holding their own. They’ve held every QB below their season passer rating with Flowers on the field (the 2011 defense probably did the opposite).

The problem is the secondary is paired with an unathletic front seven turning Trubisky into Michael Vick. That doesn’t appear to be fixable this year.

Trubisky turning into Vick doesn't have much to do with the athleticism of the front-7. It has a lot more to do with Trubisky very smartly pausing to allow his teammates to get in front of him and set up blocks.

 

[mosi]

As of Week 8:

1. Points/Game - 20th
2. YPG - 25th
3. 3rd down % - 27th
4. Net passing yards/attempt - 19th
5. Net rushing yards/attempt - 24th
6. TO % - 6th

Average = 20th

Opponent offensive rankings (PPG) - UPDATED THROUGH WEEK 7:

1. Texans - 21st
2. Jaguars - 29th
3. Lions - 12th
4. Dolphins - 23rd
5. Colts - 10th
6. Chiefs - 1st
7. Bears - 6th

Average = 15th

Still performing below average to average offensive competition. I like where we're at in TO% though.

Wow, the Bears had the 6th ranked offense?

edit. I just looked it up and yeah, their offense has been pretty good. Also, Trubisky was completing >65% of is passes in all his games, but against the Pats it was only 52%.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Their defense is terrible right now. Watching Trubisky jogging and then walking to first downs is unacceptable.

The good news is, most defenses in the NFL are terrible. Don’t think so? Aside from Jacksonville, name a good defense?

 

[maineman209]

Another take on the Pats 2018 defense:

The most interesting points:
- The Pats offense has given the ball away 13 times in 7 games. They gave it away only 12 times all of last season.
- The Pats defense has given up 52 points off turnovers. That's more points off turnovers than the defense gave up in any full season from 2009-2016, with the exception of 2013 (64 points).

 

[RobertWeathers]

Another take on the Pats 2018 defense:

The most interesting points:
- The Pats offense has given the ball away 13 times in 7 games. They gave it away only 12 times all of last season.
- The Pats defense has given up 52 points off turnovers. That's more points off turnovers than the defense gave up in any full season from 2009-2016, with the exception of 2013 (64 points).

So if they protected the ball they'd only be allowing 18.14 ppg or a TD less a game.