Is This Defense As Good As 2017?

[A Defiant Goose]

What have we really lost though?
DE has been rebuilt. I expect clayborn, Rivers, Wise to be here a while and hopefully flowers gets resigned too.
Branch out, Shelton in.
Haven’t lost any LBs.
Butler out.

I guess you're right in this sense, my concern probably isn't so much about loss of starters but lack of depth. I love Hightower but if he doesn't last the whole season we have diddly poo at LB (and to be fair, yes I understand that's the case for a lot of teams and a lot of positions). I'm not confident in our CB depth after Gilmore. Not confident in the offense being able to outscore the opposing team if our defense has a particularly bad game (not SB 52 bad, but even 2014 vs the Ravens in the playoffs bad), especially with the two guys we're relying on the most having a history of injuries. It's also that the AFC is, in my opinion, becoming more competitive and we're not longer going to be the AFCCG guaranteed shoe-in this year. New England can obviously beat any time in the league but if they have hiccups at the start of the year and end up a 3 or 4 seed they may end up having to go through a team like Jacksonville in the Wildcard, Houston in the divisional, and Pittsburgh or KC in the AFCCG. It's just a much tougher field this year and where they could get away with mediocre LB and WR play before, I don't think that's the case this year.

Obviously the games remain to be played and we'll see how everyone pans out but at the moment I'm ready for a 1 win 1 loss post season

 

[Ring 6]

I guess you're right in this sense, my concern probably isn't so much about loss of starters but lack of depth. I love Hightower but if he doesn't last the whole season we have diddly poo at LB (and to be fair, yes I understand that's the case for a lot of teams and a lot of positions). I'm not confident in our CB depth after Gilmore. Not confident in the offense being able to outscore the opposing team if our defense has a particularly bad game (not SB 52 bad, but even 2014 vs the Ravens in the playoffs bad), especially with the two guys we're relying on the most having a history of injuries. It's also that the AFC is, in my opinion, becoming more competitive and we're not longer going to be the AFCCG guaranteed shoe-in this year. New England can obviously beat any time in the league but if they have hiccups at the start of the year and end up a 3 or 4 seed they may end up having to go through a team like Jacksonville in the Wildcard, Houston in the divisional, and Pittsburgh or KC in the AFCCG. It's just a much tougher field this year and where they could get away with mediocre LB and WR play before, I don't think that's the case this year.

Obviously the games remain to be played and we'll see how everyone pans out but at the moment I'm ready for a 1 win 1 loss post season

Wow I almost see the opposite.

I love our depth at corner.
I think there hasn’t been a team built that can touch how good this offense is when they have to outscore an opponent and that’s all Brady. I
understand we had a bunch of guy in camp that people had hoped for but gronk, Edelman, hogan, Patterson is equivalent to what Brady has always had. When have we gone 5 deep btweeen te and wr?

I think the AFC is weaker than ever.

Jacksonville was a fluke and bottles is bortling again.
Houston was 4-12 and had one of the worst defenses in the nfl last year.
Pittsburgh is getting worse not better.
KC is breaking in a new, and very questionable qb.
If those are the contenders this could be the easiest path we have had in years.

Not sure who you think is getting byes ahead of us.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

Wow I almost see the opposite.

I love our depth at corner.
I think there hasn’t been a team built that can touch how good this offense is when they have to outscore an opponent and that’s all Brady. I
understand we had a bunch of guy in camp that people had hoped for but gronk, Edelman, hogan, Patterson is equivalent to what Brady has always had. When have we gone 5 deep btweeen te and wr?

I think the AFC is weaker than ever.

Jacksonville was a fluke and bottles is bortling again.
Houston was 4-12 and had one of the worst defenses in the nfl last year.
Pittsburgh is getting worse not better.
KC is breaking in a new, and very questionable qb.
If those are the contenders this could be the easiest path we have had in years.

Not sure who you think is getting byes ahead of us.

Depth at corner is something that remains to be seen. It's odd, I like our #1, and #3-5 but not excited about our #2 spot regardless of who fills in there (projects to be Rowe). I like Rowe situationally, not full-time at the 2 spot but we haven't really had a chance to see that and the jury is out on him.

Hogan regressed a bit last year and I don't know how much of that was due to Edelman being out, the guy was still the #2 behind Cooks although I understand he and Edelman are two different types of #1 WRs. I'm not confident in Dorsett or Patterson coming up as a strong 4th option behind Gronk/Edelman/Hogan though I do have high hopes for Dorsett. It's not so much about needing our 4s to beat their 4s as much as it is needing our 4s to beat their 2s or 3s if Edelman and/or Gronk go out with an injury. This WR corps goes from 2014 level to 2006 level real quick if those guys are out. You can say that about any team but those two are more prone to injury than the average top two targets imo.

The AFC is on the up and up. I could see the top 2 seeds going to either Pittsburgh, Houston, Jacksonville, KC, or NE. You have to remember Houston had Watson go down and he was having a really good rookie year. Jacksonville is largely the same team as last year. Pittsburgh's offense usually gets them a good number of wins. If we have our usual rough start it may mean losing out on a top 2 seed by just a game.

 

[Oswlek]

If everybody stays relatively healthy, I expect the 2018 defense be significantly superior to the 2017 version.

Yeah, I'm struggling to see how this defense will not be better than 2017. Other than CB, every unit appears to be upgraded, some significantly. And CB never quite lived up to it's paper ranking, so surpassing actual productivity from that position is no great stretch.

 

[Ring 6]

Depth at corner is something that remains to be seen. It's odd, I like our #1, and #3-5 but not excited about our #2 spot regardless of who fills in there (projects to be Rowe). I like Rowe situationally, not full-time at the 2 spot but we haven't really had a chance to see that and the jury is out on him.

If Rowe can stay healthy, he is going to have a great season.
People don’t realize when he has been healthy he has played very well here, and hold his play while gimpy against him.

Hogan regressed a bit last year and I don't know how much of that was due to Edelman being out, the guy was still the #2 behind Cooks although I understand he and Edelman are two different types of #1 WRs.

I thought hogan was fine last year when healthy except for the game he was brought back early.
Through 8 weeks he was 33/438/5.
That’s a 66/876/10 season if he stayed healthy and kept it up, certainly not regression.

I'm not confident in Dorsett or Patterson coming up as a strong 4th option behind Gronk/Edelman/Hogan though I do have high hopes for Dorsett. It's not so much about needing our 4s to beat their 4s as much as it is needing our 4s to beat their 2s or 3s if Edelman and/or Gronk go out with an injury. This WR corps goes from 2014 level to 2006 level real quick if those guys are out. You can say that about any team but those two are more prone to injury than the average top two targets imo.

White is the 4th option. #3 wr has never been a huge piece of this offense. Patterson can fill that rule easily wven with dumpoffs, slants and sweeps. Dorsett looks like he can contribute.
I mean other than becoming #2 when there was an injury when has WR3 really contributed that much?

The AFC is on the up and up. I could see the top 2 seeds going to either Pittsburgh, Houston, Jacksonville, KC, or NE. You have to remember Houston had Watson go down and he was having a really good rookie year. Jacksonville is largely the same team as last year. Pittsburgh's offense usually gets them a good number of wins. If we have our usual rough start it may mean losing out on a top 2 seed by just a game.

We disagree completely here. I’ll leave it at that.

 

[BradytoMosstoGronk]

And yes, we might replace Richards
====================

Can we get that in writing from coach?

 

[PaulNEPats]

If Hightower holds up, yes.

 

[maineman209]

Lot of guys that were part of the last couple of years' dynasty aren't here anymore

You're including the 2017 defense as part of this "dynasty"?

 

[A Defiant Goose]

You're including the 2017 defense as part of this "dynasty"?

The 2017 team. I'm calling the dynasty 2014-present, 2014-2017 depending on how this year goes

 

[zimmy]

Defence will be more or less the same as always. Will give up some infuriating 3rd and longs; will generally be mediocre on 3rd down; will get beaten badly by RBs out of the back field; will be solid against the run; will focus on containment and controlled rush over all out pressure; will give up long drives but just about keep the points down enough to win most games if the offense can be competent.

 

[patfanken]

DE is improved by adding Rivers and clayborn and subtracting lee/marsh/Harrison
DT is improved by adding Shelton plus valentine to back him up, replacing the corpse that was Akam Branch and freeing brown to not play over the C
LB is improved by adding Hightower and Bentley.
CB will depend upon health. Eric Rowe has had injury issues since arriving here, including a lot of the time he played being less than 100%. If he is 100% the corner position will be better. If not it won’t.
S same

Putting it all together, there are areas of improvement on what was a very good defense that was flawed, and those flaws came out against certain opponents who could exploit them.
The improvements seem to be the kind that are needed to address those flaws.
Ultimately we were a defense that had little trouble with a lot of offenses by historical trouble with certain schemes and skill sets.
That turned out to be almost, but not quite enough. We will see what the improvements do.

I agree with most of what you have written.

The area I will be most interested in seeing is how they manage the CB position behind Gilbert. I don't necessarily see it being a downgrade from Butler, at least not the 2017 version of Butler. They have a couple of Butler type guys in JJones and Dawson, to go along with some real size in Rowe.

Perhaps my biggest disappointment thus far in TC has been the lack of any flash from Devon's brother. He's been a good if not spectacular starter in this league for a long time. I'd like to think he would have become a consistent contributor to the defense here, but....

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

I agree with most of what you have written.

The area I will be most interested in seeing is how they manage the CB position behind Gilbert. I don't necessarily see it being a downgrade from Butler, at least not the 2017 version of Butler. They have a couple of Butler type guys in JJones and Dawson, to go along with some real size in Rowe.

Perhaps my biggest disappointment thus far in TC has been the lack of any flash from Devon's brother. He's been a good if not spectacular starter in this league for a long time. I'd like to think he would have become a consistent contributor to the defense here, but....

Justin Gilbert sucks! I think you mean Gilmore lol.

 

[Ring 6]

I agree with most of what you have written.

The area I will be most interested in seeing is how they manage the CB position behind Gilbert. I don't necessarily see it being a downgrade from Butler, at least not the 2017 version of Butler. They have a couple of Butler type guys in JJones and Dawson, to go along with some real size in Rowe.

Perhaps my biggest disappointment thus far in TC has been the lack of any flash from Devon's brother. He's been a good if not spectacular starter in this league for a long time. I'd like to think he would have become a consistent contributor to the defense here, but....

Against the eagles he played 30 snaps and allowed 1 completion on 2 targets. Covering your nan so they don’t throw to him is the best corner play gets. I’ll take that over flash.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Im expexting significant improvement. Butler is the only loss on d we haven’t covered from 2017. But the additions of Hightower, Clayborn, rivers + a possibly improved wise will more than offset that. Also expecting shelton to be an upgrade from 2017 branch.

 

[supafly]

The AFC is on the up and up. I could see the top 2 seeds going to either Pittsburgh, Houston, Jacksonville, KC, or NE. You have to remember Houston had Watson go down and he was having a really good rookie year. Jacksonville is largely the same team as last year. Pittsburgh's offense usually gets them a good number of wins. If we have our usual rough start it may mean losing out on a top 2 seed by just a game.

I agree with those that say a NE team that’s playing at the top of its game will win the AFC, but the idea that’s often floated around claiming that there’s no other competition is a bit over the top for me. The Pats should definitely win the division, but there will be some other worthy contenders for the AFC.

 

[supafly]

If Hightower holds up, yes.

Yes, the front seven is as good as, or better, than the 2017 squad. The secondary may be another story.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yeah, I'm struggling to see how this defense will not be better than 2017. Other than CB, every unit appears to be upgraded, some significantly. And CB never quite lived up to it's paper ranking, so surpassing actual productivity from that position is no great stretch.

???
Even if we grant improvement at DT as a given, which it really isn't until/unless Shelton proves himself to be better than Branch 2017 (not a high hurdle to leap, certainly):

• Corner's down until proven otherwise, due to the loss of Butler
  
• Safety's possibly down due to aging, and is almost certainly not upgraded
  
• Linebacker's an unknown, and dependent upon both health and a low-round rookie draftee

 

[maineman209]

The 2017 team. I'm calling the dynasty 2014-present, 2014-2017 depending on how this year goes

IDK. The 2017 offense was missing Edelman, MM, and Bennett - and Hogan for half the season - from the 2016 run. And the 2017 defense was missing even more. They still made it to the SB, and were a play or two from winning it.

So, while a couple more key guys from 2016 are missing, at least a couple others are back - Edelman and HT - and the other spots have been more or less reloaded. There's always been roster turnover because guys get old, but also because the team, the personnel mix needs to change to match the changes in strategies and schemes that other teams are using.

That's part of what keeps "dynasties" going. So, I wouldn't say, yet, that this second dynasty is over simply because some of the players have changed.

 

[oceansizer]

Improved pass rush will let our secondary be better and more productive. Constant pressure on QB gives opportunity to opposite team to make more mistakes. Less time is a better chance to throw inaccurate passes. Also presence of Hightower is going to provide more confidence for our front seven. Branch was far away last season of his optimal form so addition of Shelton I expect will help to stop a running game.
Bottom line is we strenghtened our defence in many aspects and if the players stay healthy it looks promising. Tackling and stopping running game were the biggest problems of our defense.It is gonna be improved.

 

[BTTA]

Yep. I've mentally prepared myself for a "down year" (12-4, loss in AFCCG).

Which will erode Brady's winning percentage numbers!