Defensive Turnover This Offseason

[RayClay]

Yeah, it's kinda sad really. If only the Pats could contend once in a while maybe they could become the kind of team players go to for a ring instead.

Yeah, Rodney had a nice retirement party

 

[maust]

Yeah, Rodney had a nice retirement party

His vocal bitterness about his miserable time in New England makes it obvious how much he now regrets the decision to come here and only get two lousy rings.

 

[maineman209]

I tracked the NFL defensive snap count history of all the players who contributed to both the 2016 and 2017 Pats defenses. PFR has snaps counts only back through 2012, so the totals for veterans like Nink were short a whole bunch of snaps.

Nevertheless, the combined total previous NFL defensive experience (2012-2015 snap counts) of the players who contributed the vast majority of the snaps on the Pats 2016 Front-7 was over 23,000.

The combined total previous NFL defensive experience (2012-2016 snap counts) of the players who ended up contributing the vast majority of snaps on the 2017 Front-7 was less than 4,900.

IOW, from 2016 to 2017, the Pats Front-7 lost over 18,000 snaps worth of NFL defensive experience - just under 80%.

I wonder how many other teams have lost 80% of their experience among their DL and LB personnel from one season to the next. I wonder how many of those managed to make it into the top 5 in points allowed.

Whatever, it seems to me that the dramatic dropoff in experience may have been a significant factor in the performance of the 2017 defense overall.

 

[Triumph]

Yeah, it's kinda sad really. If only the Pats could contend once in a while maybe they could become the kind of team players go to for a ring instead.

Triggered?

 

[maust]

I tracked the NFL defensive snap count history of all the players who contributed to both the 2016 and 2017 Pats defenses. PFR has snaps counts only back through 2012, so the totals for veterans like Nink were short a whole bunch of snaps.

Nevertheless, the combined total previous NFL defensive experience (2012-2015 snap counts) of the players who contributed the vast majority of the snaps on the Pats 2016 Front-7 was over 23,000.

The combined total previous NFL defensive experience (2012-2016 snap counts) of the players who ended up contributing the vast majority of snaps on the 2017 Front-7 was less than 4,900.

IOW, from 2016 to 2017, the Pats Front-7 lost over 18,000 snaps worth of NFL defensive experience - just under 80%.

I wonder how many other teams have lost 80% of their experience among their DL and LB personnel from one season to the next. I wonder how many of those managed to make it into the top 5 in points allowed.

Whatever, it seems to me that the dramatic dropoff in experience may have been a significant factor in the performance of the 2017 defense overall.

That's entirely too well reasoned & supported an argument to be lent any credence. You went through all that effort when any member of the fellowship of the miserable could have told you the D sucked because of Bill...on the sideline...with the Butler.

 

[maust]

Triggered?

Aren't most responses? Didn't my post trigger yours? That's kind of how a lot of this works.

 

[Triumph]

Aren't most responses? Didn't my post trigger yours? That's kind of how a lot of this works.

No, not really, but I obviously trigger you.

 

[maineman209]

I tracked the NFL defensive snap count history of all the players who contributed to both the 2016 and 2017 Pats defenses. PFR has snaps counts only back through 2012, so the totals for veterans like Nink were short a whole bunch of snaps.

Nevertheless, the combined total previous NFL defensive experience (2012-2015 snap counts) of the players who contributed the vast majority of the snaps on the Pats 2016 Front-7 was over 23,000.

The combined total previous NFL defensive experience (2012-2016 snap counts) of the players who ended up contributing the vast majority of snaps on the 2017 Front-7 was less than 4,900.

IOW, from 2016 to 2017, the Pats Front-7 lost over 18,000 snaps worth of NFL defensive experience - just under 80%.

I wonder how many other teams have lost 80% of their experience among their DL and LB personnel from one season to the next. I wonder how many of those managed to make it into the top 5 in points allowed.

Whatever, it seems to me that the dramatic dropoff in experience may have been a significant factor in the performance of the 2017 defense overall.

As a follow-up ...

Without yet knowing for certain who will be on the final 53 come week-1 (and healthy), and without knowing who may play a prominent role in the Front-7, the players currently on the Pats roster certainly add some NFL defensive experience back.

- The "new guys", CLAYBORN & SHELTON, bring in a combined ~4,600 snaps of NFL experience.
- HIGHTOWER & VALENTINE, returning from IR, add back ~4,100 snaps.
- And, not be ignored, the players on the current roster who did play prominent roles in last season's Front-7 (for better or worse) now have that experience to add to the 2018 defense. Including T. Flowers, M. Flowers, Eric Lee, Brown, Guy, Adam Butler, Wise, Van Noy and Roberts, that adds another ~4,800 snaps of experience.

IOW, the current roster offers a potential increase in previous NFL defensive experience of ~13,500 snaps for the Front-7. That doesn't quite get it back to the experience level of the 2016 defense, but it does nearly triple the experience level of the 2017 Front-7.

 

[maineman209]

For those who may be wondering about experience levels in the back end of the defense, they've only increased each year in 2016 and 2017, and (potentially) again for 2018.

Previous NFL experience:

2016 Cornerback = 4150 snaps
2016 Safety = 8600 snaps
2016 TOTAL = 12,750 snaps

2017 Cornerback = 8100 snaps (Gilmore added, Ryan subtracted)
2017 Safety = 11,150 (just in 2016 experience added to the existing roster)
2017 TOTAL = 19,250

2018 Cornerback, potentially = 12,000 (J-Mac added, Butler subtracted)
2018 Safety, potentially = 14,100
2018 TOTAL = 26,000 snaps of previous NFL experience

It seems reasonable to guess that this is among the most experienced secondaries in the league.

The trick now is how to maintain a high experience level and avoid an "experience crash landing" in the near future like what the Front-7 went through in 2017. With Chung and the McCourty brothers turning 31 in Camp, and with D-Mac's extremely high cap hits for 2018 & 2019, and with only Gilmore, Cy Jones and the rookies signed beyond the end of this season, that may be more difficult than it seems right now.

 

[mgteich]

This is great stuff. Thank you for you analysis.
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As an aside, I try to talk about the front six now that the nickel is our base defense, usually 4-2-5.

For those who may be wondering about experience levels in the back end of the defense, they've only increased each year in 2016 and 2017, and (potentially) again for 2018.

Previous NFL experience:

2016 Cornerback = 4150 snaps
2016 Safety = 8600 snaps
2016 TOTAL = 12,750 snaps

2017 Cornerback = 8100 snaps (Gilmore added, Ryan subtracted)
2017 Safety = 11,150 (just in 2016 experience added to the existing roster)
2017 TOTAL = 19,250

2018 Cornerback, potentially = 12,000 (J-Mac added, Butler subtracted)
2018 Safety, potentially = 14,100
2018 TOTAL = 26,000 snaps of previous NFL experience

It seems reasonable to guess that this is among the most experienced secondaries in the league.

The trick now is how to maintain a high experience level and avoid an "experience crash landing" in the near future like what the Front-7 went through in 2017. With Chung and the McCourty brothers turning 31 in Camp, and with D-Mac's extremely high cap hits for 2018 & 2019, and with only Gilmore, Cy Jones and the rookies signed beyond the end of this season, that may be more difficult than it seems right now.

 

[BTTA]

Agree, this is really relevant data.

At some point, the snap count experience begins to diminish in returns. I've no idea when that is, but as you point out, the D Line will have probably turned that corner in this coming year.

 

[maineman209]

Agree, this is really relevant data.

At some point, the snap count experience begins to diminish in returns. I've no idea when that is, but as you point out, the D Line will have probably turned that corner in this coming year.

Excellent point!

I'm guessing that BB, Caserio, Ernie Adams and their analytics staff have already developed a pretty solid framework within which to make those judgments.

All we can do from our perspective is follow the bouncing ball and try to reverse-extrapolate its previous trajectory.

 

[maineman209]

This is great stuff. Thank you for you analysis.
=========
As an aside, I try to talk about the front six now that the nickel is our base defense, usually 4-2-5.

Agree. Bad (old) habit that I need to break.

 

[BTTA]

Excellent point!

I'm guessing that BB, Caserio, Ernie Adams and their analytics staff have already developed a pretty solid framework within which to make those judgments.

All we can do from our perspective is follow the bouncing ball and try to reverse-extrapolate its previous trajectory.

That kind of talk will get you thrown out of here, fella.

 

[mgteich]

Agree. Bad (old) habit that I need to break.

me too

Curiously, (as with designating more Sters), the language may lead to us having more position corners (since 3 start) and fewer position linebackers (since 2 start plus an occasional run stuffer).

 

[goheels22002]

We'll see how this defense is as the season rolls along. I like what they've done so far, especially picking up McCourty as a veteran corner to go along with Rowe and Gilmore. I expect 3rd round pick Duke Dawson to make an immediate impact. All-SEC 1st team corner dropping to the 3rd round was a gift. The secondary is excellent as a unit.

I share the chagrine about Butler's benching in the SB and his departure. The story will come out at some point. I wish him well.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

I'd comment on how we can't just say "players were injured" and hope it won't be the case again but I don't wanna be too negative around here

 

[maineman209]

We'll see how this defense is as the season rolls along. I like what they've done so far, especially picking up McCourty as a veteran corner to go along with Rowe and Gilmore. I expect 3rd round pick Duke Dawson to make an immediate impact. All-SEC 1st team corner dropping to the 3rd round was a gift. The secondary is excellent as a unit.

I share the chagrine about Butler's benching in the SB and his departure. The story will come out at some point. I wish him well.

Nitpick: Dawson was drafted in the 2nd round.

The Pats' secondary is, by far, the most NFL-experienced part of the defense. That's the best situation to draft into, since it means that a prospect like Dawson doesn't need to make an immediate impact as a rookie.

With the veteran depth of the unit, the Pats have the opportunity to develop Dawson at whatever pace seems optimal. Similar situation with Sony Michel at RB.

 

[mgteich]

We picked up McCourty and Dawson. We lost Butler. I think that we did fine. Hopefully, J Jones and Rowe continue to develop [and stay healthy].

Add Gilmore, and we have five players who can start at corner (including Dawson as a starting nickel back).
==========
Plus, we have the usual suspects in UDFA's, Practice Squad players, and C Jones.

We'll see how this defense is as the season rolls along. I like what they've done so far, especially picking up McCourty as a veteran corner to go along with Rowe and Gilmore. I expect 3rd round pick Duke Dawson to make an immediate impact. All-SEC 1st team corner dropping to the 3rd round was a gift. The secondary is excellent as a unit.

I share the chagrine about Butler's benching in the SB and his departure. The story will come out at some point. I wish him well.

 

[captain stone]

NE is where defensive players go to retire.

Harris, Haynesworth, Harrison, Ellis, Starks just to name a few.

Yeah, it's kinda sad really. If only the Pats could contend once in a while maybe they could become the kind of team players go to for a ring instead...

...or, if the Emperor had a clue during draft weekends, there would not have been the need to fill holes with short-term stop-gaps.